Prediction Changed
4:23 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Sydney-Victoria
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Mark Eyking

2006 Result:
Mark Eyking **
20277
John Hugh Edwards
11587
Howie MacDonald
7455
Chris Milburn
1336

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 06 30 CMR
142.68.235.64
I have to dispute the entry from a couple of posts ago claiming this riding voted NDP 'religiously' back in the 1970's and 80's. Yes, a very small portion of this riding (New Waterford) was part of the Cape Breton East-Richmond riding that twice elected an NDP member in the 1970's, but most of this riding came from the Cape Breton-The Sydneys riding which was a Conservative stronghold for many years, followed by a long period as a Liberal stronghold until the demise of the riding in 1997. So, it was nowhere near an NDP stronghold in the 70's and 80's. That being said, Peter Mancini's win for the NDP in 1997, does give the NDP some hope in the riding, but right now the Liberals remain strong and poised to keep this seat. The one thing that could help the NDP, is that the Conservatives appear to have nominated a stronger candidate than they have had in years, and while she won't win, she should pick up a much higher vote than in the past. If that happens, and the Liberls lose votes as a result, then there is the posibility of the NDP coming up the middle and taking the seat, but as of right now, I would say Mark Eyeking is easily headed to victory.
08 02 24 A.S.
99.233.96.153
The more vulnerable of the two Cape Breton Liberal seats, at least for having a clearer opposition force in the NDP (and unlike next door, the Grit vote actually dipped below 50% here in 2006). Provincially speaking, a problem here is that Cape Breton's been the most/last consistent Liberal stronghold since the provincial Grits started getting caught between the NDP/PC pincers a decade ago (a reverse of the case elsewhere, where blue-collar backwaters of economic collapse might more likely be the the last *NDP* strongholds). Thus, despite a superficial super-compatability, it'd need extra push and effort and some big anti-Liberal/NDP-favouring outside trending, or a 1997-style perfect storm, for the NDP to actually make that step beyond strong second here. But as long as the Dion Liberals are perceived as ‘weak’, it's still doable...
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
74.14.16.208
This used to be a strong NDP riding that voted NDP religiously… That was, back in the 1980’s and 1970’s. While the NDP won here in 1997, that was, as I said in a post in another riding, due to a very special set of circumstances that don’t exist this time around. The Liberals will hold this riding.
07 05 09 Efrem
84.64.81.129
Actually, the Liberals didn't clean up on Cape Breton last provincial election; of the five urban CB ridings, the Liberals took two seats, the NDP two and the PC's one (the more rural ones went three PC to one Liberal).
Not that this matters much federally; unless something strange happens (like, say, another Liberal meltdown in Nova Scotia) Sydney-Victoria (which reminds me a bit of Gordon Brown's Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath fiefdom) stays Liberal.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
64.230.127.250
This part of Nova Scotia is Liberal-leaning to a fault. Even when the provincial Liberals bombed in the rest of the province, they cleaned up in Cape Breton.
07 03 23 Daniel
156.34.89.195
Given the Liberals' relatively strong support in Atlantic Canada, in addition to the fact that Eyking finished 9,000 votes ahead of his nearest competitor in the last election, and I'm quite sure that Sydney-Victoria will easily be returned to the Liberal fold.



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