08 06 24	Brian A 24.215.70.163
So, over a year later and I was right about Alexa stepping down, and now this riding is TCTC. It's really too premature to call this riding for any party before we know who's running. The NDP still have the edge, since Alexa was a good MP, but a strong Liberal candidate could take it if the NDP nominate a no-namer. We'll see, I guess.
	08 06 05	Michael 136.159.225.31
This may have to go back to Too Close to Count if it is true that Alexa has decided not to run again. I read that in the paper yesterday, and assume it is true. Nova Scotians (I used to live there) tend to vote for incumbents even more than the rest of the country, and are perhaps more influenced my local candidates than the party too. A strong candidate could keep this in the NDP fold, but it is too early to say yet.
	08 06 05	Can-eh-dian Redhead 142.108.154.77
TCTC. Now that Alexa has expressed she won?t run again, all bets are off. Halifax has had a recent history of progressive voting, with the Liberal candidate coming in 2nd (and in some cases, giving NDPer Alexa a run for her money) the last 3 elections. Further, the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives have never finished any higher than a somewhat distant 3rd. So it appears to be open to any of the centre-and-left parties. A star candidate would definitely sway that balance for any of the Liberals, NDP or Green Parties. Perhaps Brian Appel?s April 13, 2007 comment wasn?t so off the mark after all.
	08 06 05	David Young 24.138.19.185
Even with Alexa not re-offering once the next election is called, the N.D.P. will have no problem holding this seat. All five of the provincial seats within the federal riding of HALIFAX are strong N.D.P. ridings. It wouldn't surprise me at all if one of those M.L.A.'s, Maureen MacDonald, decides to switch to federal politics. Or it could be former CENTRAL NOVA candidate Alexis MacDonald, who now lives in Halifax, could seek the nomination. Either way, this riding will remain N.D.P. for the foreseeable future!
	08 06 02	binriso 156.34.216.247
Well Alexa is retiring, that opens up the race, she was very popular and well-liked and the Liberals have a good chance at taking this seat for the first time since 1993. One thing though is that she might have stepped aside for Alexis Macdonald to run here, if that is the case the NDP will probably win again since Macdonald is a strong candidate who came relatively close to beating Peter Mackay (about 7-10% or so). Other than that, its a 2-way race. CPC or Green for that matter dont really have a chance other than to spoil as things stand now. Might have been a good riding for Elizabeth May to run in though and she would have had a better chance here than in Central Nova.
	08 06 02	T.V. 172.162.10.251
Alexa McDonough just announced that she's not running again. This blows the race wide open. I think the expected Liberal candidate withdrew, so they should now be able to attract someone fairly prominent.
	08 02 23	A.S. 99.233.96.153
While Alexa's maintained her grip on Halifax since 1997, it hasn't been the firmest of grips: barely 40% against lesser opponents on '00, nearly losing to Liberal in '04--as diligent and seemingly locally beloved as she is, I can still sense a bit of a ‘1988 Flora MacDonald’ cloud hanging over her. Though have I heard talk of a Mary Clancy political comeback in the works? In a funny way, that might actually help Alexa more than it hurts her...
	07 09 23	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.13.73.195
Umm...T.V., we think your assumption is a little screwy. ?All those Tories switching to the Liberals? would not be enough to toplle Alexa. Oh mathematically it's possible....if about 8000 Tory voters decide to go Grit. That's about 90% of the people who voted CPC in 2006 AND assuming they ALL go to the Liberals as opposed to voting something else or just staying home. Like we said, mathematically it's possible, but it is not the least bit realistic.
	07 09 25	Adam H. 74.101.6.98
I don't know what poll you read, but the latest one that I took a look at had the Liberals at 40%, with the NDP and Conservatives tied at 25%. The Greens are at 9% in the region. Broadly speaking, just because the Liberals are up in Atlantic Canada and the Tories are down doesn't mean that that affects the Halifax riding to a large extent. As a matter of fact, the Liberal lead was larger in the last election, although it is no 50%. (the Liberals took 44% of the vote in Atlantic Canada in '06) The key here would be to look at NDP support: If it is the same as in '06, which it nearly is, that means that the NDP is likely holding strong where they are strong, namely Halifax. My guess is that the Liberals are taking support from the Conservatives in largely rural areas, if they are at all. Again, a balance of probabilities points to Alexa holding on to her seat.
	07 09 22	T.V. 209.202.78.177
Recent polling has the Liberals at 50% in Atlantic Canada and Conservative support plummetting to 18%. All those Tories switching to the Liberals may well be enough to topple Alexa McDonough.
	07 09 19	Adam H. 74.101.6.98
The NDP will not lose this riding in the next election, especially with Alexa running again. Some people will point to the 2004 result in which Alexa won by a 'close' 2000 votes as reason that this seat could go Liberal. In that election, the Liberals ran a popular Halifax city councillor, Sheila Fougere. As well, the national Liberal campaign (they won a minority) was much stronger. Having lived in the riding, many people voted Liberal with the hopes of keeping Stephen Harper and the Conservatives out of government. By the time the 2006 election rolled around, people understood that the Conservatives were going to win anyway, so they weren't afraid of voting NDP. Perhaps more importantly, Halifax is the strongest NDP city as far as provincial politics go in the entire country. The NDP holds 13 of 17 provincial seats in the city, and have a much more strong organization on the ground than the Liberals, who have never been weaker in province than they are at the moment. The seats that aren't NDP following the 2006 N.S. provincial election are suburbs/rural seats. You can guess who finished second in the four seats in Halifax that the Dippers didn't win. It would take a star Liberal candidate with a lacklustre NDP candidate in a Liberal election year to push this seat to the Liberals. Ideologically, this seat isn't out of the Liberals grasp, but because the Liberals have drifted to the right since the early 1990s and the NDP to the centre over the same period, it will be very difficult to unseat Alexa at this time or in the near future. Halifax is a highly educated riding with an economy based around government services, universities, the military, and a successful port. Certainly a recipe for Liberal success (see Halifax West/Dartmouth), but there are too many factors going for Alexa and the NDP in Halifax right now.
	07 09 16	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
I’m going to predict NDP. For now. If the Liberals start polling a victory (right now the Tories are holding steady nationally from the last election) and if they start encroaching on Majority territory, this is one of the last ridings that would fall their way to get that Majority. Short of that, the NDP should hold it no matter which candidate they run.
	07 07 03	binriso 156.34.213.248
Watch for this one when Alexa retires and it will be very close and could easily go Liberal. That said Mcdonough will win Halifax quite solidly probably by about 10-15%. The Liberals do have a very small chance here though. The CPC dont have a prayer.
	07 04 16	A. Wright 24.222.93.30
Brian Appel, where do you dream this stuff up? First, Alexa has just been renominated. She loves being the MP for Halifax and works damn hard at it. Second, when she does step down in the *future*, the nomination won't decided in some backroom and handed over to someone. It will be an open and democratic contest. And since Halifax is an NDP riding with all provincial ridings in the NDP column as well, there will be more than one person going for it.
	07 04 13	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
Apparently, there's now some backroom discussions with Alexa to step down in order to allow the NDP candidate for Central Nova from '04 and '06, Alexis MacDonald, to run here. Perhaps it's something to do with the NDP choosing to nominate a lower-end candidate in Central Nova and tacitly help May in her fight with MacKay. Anyway, it's still likely that nothing will come of it, but if Alexa does step down so Alexis can run, look for it to be a close race. Alexis is a young, down-to-earth person of some regard in Antigonish and, specifically, in St. FX University. She would appeal to the students in the riding and would make a fine candidate.
	07 04 10	J.F. Breton 132.204.214.65
Je penche nettement pour une réélection d'Alexa. Ceci dit, qui sera candidat vert dans cette circonscription? Quel sera l'effet attractif d'Elizabeth May sur le votre néo-démocrate en Nouvelle-Écosse? Il faudra surveiller ces tendances pendant la campagne. Personnellement, je crois que ce sera assez minime, grapillant des votes un peu partout. Victoire NPD.
	07 04 08	joe 68.148.61.68
8,000 vote margin last time and you say it's 'too close to call'????? Please. NDP hold. Throw in the fact all provincial ridings in the area are NDP, and it makes it even more dubious that any other party is going to knock her off. Alexa is not going anywhere until she retires.
	07 04 06	JG 142.177.181.146
Alexa's margin of victory was large in 2006 and, provincially, this part of Halifax is an NDP fortress. She is personally popular, and unless a really remarkable Liberal candidate runs, she will win easily.
	07 03 28	CCrosby 129.173.8.235
Alexa's margin GREW in the last election by a great deal into a landslide. She is in absolutely no danger. The Liberals' numbers haven't moved at all and are in fact sinking and it would take a massive turnaround in Liberal and NDP fortunes to reverse a rock-solid seat like this. Liberals have no chance whatsoever in Halifax what with the provicial NDP infrastructure (all five and a half seats in his federal seat provincially are held by the NDP as well), Alexa's organization and a badly organized, dispirited Liberal base in Halifax. A lock.
	07 03 25	Ancastarian 24.226.61.228
Alexa McDonough will hold this seat. She is a former NDP leader, and despite her margin of victory shrinking each election, personal popularity and a good campaign will probably see her hold this seat, although the future is more bleak for many New Democrat Mp's.
	07 03 21	Brian Appel 69.70.112.147
Make no mistake, this riding should be labelled as TCTC right now, and probably even after the election is called. This riding could easily become Liberal, as it almost did in 2004, if the Liberals fortunes increase a bit. Alexa is still supposed to be running, but if she decides not to, then it's even more a possible Liberal pickup, even if somebody like Chisholm runs. For now, though, I'll leave this one in the NDP column.