Prediction Changed
2:36 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Larsen, Ted
New Democratic
Leslie, Megan
Meade, Catherine
Seed, Tony
Whetter, Darryl

Alexa McDonough

2006 Result:
Alexa McDonough **
Martin MacKinnon
Andrew House
Nick Wright
Tony Seed

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
NDP are running away with this one, with or without Alexa. Polls show them at 44% to the Liberal 30%.
08 10 06 Ebenezer
Buck is right on. Larsen will probably place second and perhaps as much as 1,000 votes ahead of the Liberal candidate who is waging alacklustre campaign. I have been surprised to hear several people remark that Halifax really should try for a government MP. We used to be a bellwether riding.
Look for an NDP victory this time. If the new NDP MP does not perform outstandingly, look for an upset in the nest trip to the polls.
08 10 05 Buck
Time to call this for the NDP. Meade has been the invisible candidate. I have not seen a single sign on private land. I think the big surprise here on election night may be that Larsenm, the CPC candidate, despite the false start, finishes second.
08 10 04 Dubya
Jack Layton and Megan Leslie just had a huge rally in Halifax. CP reported that 500 people attended. Leslie signs dominate the riding with Liberal signs spread thin and Conservative signs mostly on apartment buildings put up by landlords not tenants. It will be tighter race this time around with the Conservative eating away at the Liberal vote. Based on how things have gone over the past three weeks Leslie's campaign will out work and out organize the others. Haligonians do not like Harper and Leslie will be their choice to stop him.
08 09 29 Ebenezer
This seat should have been declared an NDP victory ages ago. The only
change I've detected in the past week is the recovery of the CPC campaign with its new candidate. At least Larsen is making an effort and to date none of the three oppositon parties have done any personal assassination of the man, his family or his dog (if he has one). ALL the candidates here are falling down on the job in terms of getting info about their candidates and platforms to homes in my area. Several people on my street say they'll vote for the candidate who actually turns up on their doorstep.
One neighbour has voted only twice in a dozen years, because she says she only votes when someone comes to her house and asks her to support them.
She says she voted NDP two elections ago and Reform before that, because someone campaigned to her door. How do political scientists classify that sort of voter? An ideologue she ain't.
08 09 28 Siobhan C
I am stunned that this riding is still considered too close to call. There is NO WAY this will NOT be in the NDP column on election night. Ms. Leslie is a highly regarded candidate and the NDP owns the HRM seats provincially and federally. One just has to look at the lawn signs and talk to anyone here.
Another factor that is important is getting out the vote and the NDP is so organized here that while they cannot sleepwalk to victory, they do have a neat well oiled machine that will work on Eday. I also understand all the NDP canvasses show some voters who were leaning to NDP are now solidly in the definite side. So, I think there will be at least two, possibly three (South Shore-St. Margaret's) NDP seats in NS on election day. The third is an outside chance though.
However, there is absolutely no way this seat will be anything but NDP. Anyone who suggests otherwise does not understand the riding at this stage of the campaign (I am willing to admit any gaffe could change things but I seriously doubt that!), does not live here or is allowing their partisanship to cloud their judgment.
08 09 24 Seattle Spud
Despite new candidate, provincial trends are positive for NDP as is current Tory-Grit campaign dynamic. However, TCTC is not a bad call for the moment. Because IF the Liberals start to do better nationally (esp. Ontario) and close the gap nationally, will likley attract swing anti-Harper voters from Dippers toward Grits. BUT that's very big if.
08 09 24 patsy
No seats change hands in Halifax area. This will be closer but NDP will hold out,especially with Dartmouth being a lost cause..all hands on deck in Halifax to pull it out.
08 09 22 The Cantley Clipper
I agree that this is an NDP riding. Halifax (and the Regional Municipality) has remained a molten core of NDP support since the collapse of the Liberal brand in Nova Scotia in the late-90's, both federally and provincially. Federally, the Grits have bounced back somewhat, regaining their Cape Breton and Valley support, and with locally well-known names (Mike Savage, Geoff Regan, Scott Brison), they have maintained a majority of seats in N.S. However, here in this riding, it is a dyed-in-the-wool orange constituency; therefore, Miss Leslie should have no problem retaining this riding.
That being said, this will revert to a 2004-type result; NDP win, close Liberal second. This isn't because the Libs have a great candidate, but because Leslie is a new candidate and new candidates have a tendency to lose some of their party's previous votes. She will take in about 17,000 votes, and all other parties will come in approximately where they did in 2006.
08 09 21 Siobhan C
While it is true in the early days that this seat was possibly an Alexa seat, Alexa also had huge coattails and brought quite a few NDP members with her to Ottawa , no easy achievement!
However, now one must consider the HRM area as a whole, the last provincial election results which show the fact that the Halifax area NDP is well organized and will get out the vote for Ms. Leslie on election day! It wasa three way race while the other parties had to scramble (esp the Tories, dare term this new reincarnation such)to find candidates. Diana Whalen with name recognition might have gave her a run for her money as Sheila Fougere did to Alexa a few years ago but no, no one reall knows the Liberal candidate and the NDP owns Halifax!
08 09 20 Janey Canuck
Halifax is absolutely a NDP riding thanks to Alexa but also to others who have made this city an NDP zone provincially and federally. Sheila Fougere was the last person to give Alexa a run for her money but Sheila had name recognition as a prominent city councilor. The current Lib candidate is good but if Sheila could not defeat the NDP, neither can this one. There was a three way fight for the NDP nomination and Ms. Leslie will retain this seat.
Pls remember that the university students are back again and many of them will support the NDP or the Green Party though there are some who are active in the provincial Tory party. (The Tories came last BEHIND the Greens in one election not too long ago!)
So, I believe while it could be close, it will be NDP.
08 09 17 Marco Ricci
Both Jack Layton and Stéphane Dion have stopped by Halifax over the last couple days. That may mean that this riding is a close contest between their two parties.
08 09 17 Ebenezer
Since the NDP owns Halifax Regional Municipality politically, and since the other parties are running relative unknowns, we could be saving taxpayers' money here. Give the seat to the NDP by acclamation. Boring campaigns, uninspiring candidates, foregone conclusion ...what a formula for a situation in which people don't bother to vote. Voter apathy? The political parties invite it!
In 2006 Nova Scotia returned all its sitting members, and yet the province pulsates with a sense of having missed the economic boat. Almost three years later, people are more upset, then turn right around and vote for the status quo. The only change this time will be Bill Casey's label. Sad.
I envy Quebec and Ontario where people can make real choices in elections.
08 09 16 Brian A
I'm going to swim against the current here and predict that Catherine Meade is going to win Halifax in a squeaker. Yeah, it doesn't hurt that she's a woman, black and gay in the multi-cultural stew that is Halifax, but she's also a fantastic lady, a great candidate and would be a good MP. Alexa was a good MP, don't get me wrong, but I think the people of Halifax are going to feel the winds of change blowing and Catherine will take it. I mean, the NDP candidate is good, but she's not Alexa.
08 09 16 Bluenoser in Bytown
I worked on the NDP campaign (Alexa's last) in Halifax in the '06 election, and I have no idea why you think Andrew House was/is a social conservative. He's no red tory, either, but more of your standard laissez-faire economic conservative more than anything else. He's intelligent and came across very well in the debates, which certainly dragged some votes from the Liberals in the riding.
I'll predict that it will be closer than last time, but there's no way the Liberals (especially with Dion at the helm) can make up 8,000 votes on the NDP this time out. This was an Alexa riding, but it's also an NDP riding, and as one poster previously mentioned, Halifax is becoming increasingly cemented in its NDP identity.
Just because the riding went ‘Progressive’ Conservative 24 years ago doesn't mean that the same demographic and voting realities are at play today. The NDP used to win seats in rural Saskatchewan, too. NDP hold - and continuing to call this ‘too close to call’ fails to account for the support on the ground the NDP gets in this particular part of the country.
08 09 16 Joel
I think progressiveconservative is being a bit to optomistic for this riding. Conservatives don't have a chance here as much as we wish they did. The vote was not depressed in fact it was up from 2004.
Dion is not winning any hearts and minds in this campaign. Look for an NDP hold on this one.
08 09 16 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
A CPC win in, that's delusional. Remember the Atlantic Accords? I'm sure voters in Halifax have not. The CPC are not polling well in Atlantic Canada and it is probably the only place outside of Montreal where the Liberals have any chance of picking anything up. If this is going to tip away from the NDP, it's going to tip Liberal.
08 09 15 ProgressiveConservative
This was an Alexa seat, never NDP. The provincial NDP wins here because the PCs are a rural party.
The NDP candidate in the riding next door will devastate the NDP vote, while the Liberals are still having trouble with their leader.
The Conservative vote was held back last time by the christian-right candidate, and will come back under a progressive conservative. Harper is viewed as a good leader and Halifax wants a government MP for the first time in a long time.
08 09 15 CAC
Megan Leslie in a walk. There's no compelling reason at all to think the Liberals can make up the considerable vote deficit considering the many institutional advantages the NDP have in Halifax right now. The Liberals had maybe 100 people at their nomination meeting (I was there and it couldn't have been many more), the NDP had, depending on the count you believe 600-1000 in the room (I was there as well and would say closer to the former, though the Herald cited the latter number). If Whelan had run it would have definitely been closer but Meade has no real profile and only a real star could have made this competitive.
08 09 14 Marco Ricci
The poster below said that Alexis MacDonald is the NDP candidate, but in fact it is Megan Leslie who was nominated.3
I think Alexis MacDonald may have been the stronger candidate since she did do well against Peter MacKay and has a similar name to Alexa McDonough.
The fact that Alexis MacDonald is not running, combined with the fact that the Conservative candidate has dropped out, may give the Liberals a chance here. They almost won the seat in 2004 and the riding was Liberal until Alexa McDonough won it. Her retirement gives them an opportunity to win it back, but it will probably in the end depend on the party's regional and national numbers.
08 09 14 E. L. Smerl
NDP hold with Alexis MacDonald. She's very popular and almost beat Peter MacKay in Central Nova in 2006. She'd also be the only guaranteed Atlantic Canadian woman MP.
Conservative candidate just had to resign when criminal conviction for uttering threats (to what? the climate? native youth?) was revealed.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Too close to call????
Come on. Do the Liberals even have a candidate? The NDP has over 1000 members, hold 4 of the 5 provincial seats, and they are up in the polls. In a different year, the Liberals might have a chance, but this election, they are playing defence, not making gains.
08 09 11 Luke
Considering the NDP holds every provincial riding that composes this federal riding, it's hard to call it an 'Alexa' seat. The NDP is actually polling at close to 50% here. Simply, in order for the Liberals to win, they will have to overcome 5 provincial NDP seats and a 9,000 vote deficit. It's not as if this was Alexa's seat in a Liberal-dominated city. The Grits may take a few votes from the Tories and increase their tally, but I can't see many people changing their mind from NDP to Liberal at a time when NDP popularity here is at an all-time high.
08 09 09 JCOX
This is likely going to the Liberals, My feeling is this was an Alexa McDonough Seat not an NDP riding.
08 09 10 Dubya
Megan Leslie was nominated as the NDP candidate on Monday night. She is smart, articulate and has been working for the people of Halifax for a number of years as a community legal worker. Leslie will be known to people all over the riding because of her work and community involvement.
The Liberals nominated their candidate tonight and I am sure the Conservative will appoint someone soon. It will be a tough fight to represent Halifax and the Liberals will probably attach the good work of Alexa and the work of all the NDP MLAs who represent the people of Halifax in the NS Legislature. I doubt this will get them anywhere because Alexa is loved by the people of Halifax and the NDP MLAs are very popular. I am sure Leslie will be out door to door with Alexa the MLAs and the very popular leader of the NS NDP Darrel Dexter.
It will surely be a hard fought campaign but this will clearly be won by Leslie and the NDP.
08 09 10 Luke
Ultimately, we must look at the numbers. The Liberals need to pick up 9,000 votes to win this riding. Moreover, it's not as if the voters in Halifax aren't supporting the NDP in record numbers provincially. In fact, the case could be made that this is one of the NDP's bigger strongholds. Looking at the numbers and considering that this riding is composed of provincial NDP ridings, it's hard to pick anything other than an NDP victory in Halifax.
08 09 08 Devon P
The NDP has just nominated a fairly high-profile community campaigner named Meagan Leslie as the candidate. She is a strong speaker, and has a history of activist work and working with the public at the Dalhousie Legal Aid Service that should translate well into door-to-door campaigning.
08 09 05 Urban Farmer
This one is too close to call. I really believe the NDP have held this riding because of Alexa not the party and now it will be put to the ultimate test. I would have most certainly selected Liberal if Diana Whalen had run, but she has decided against it. It may become clearer once we see whom the NDP and Liberals actually select as candidates. The Conservatives are irrelevent here.
08 09 05 Eccles
Every seat is winnable. Nothing is impossible. The cards have no memory.
But there are certain facts that we mustn't overlook.
True, Alexa didn't always win by a huge margin. But she did last time--one and half times the number of votes given to her nearest rival. That's what, in the game, we call a landslide.
And Halifax is increasingly comfortable with its NDP identity. All of the three peninsular seats in the provincial legislature are NDP, and they are secure. So is Halifax Atlantic, which makes up the rest of the federal Halifax riding.
In fact OpEd pieces in Nova Scotia media routinely suggest that Darrell Dexter's NDP are a provincial government-in-waiting.
If the NDP should some day blink or snooze, the seat may well go Liberal. But I can tell you for a certainty, the NDP shows no sign whatever of blinking or snoozing.
Diana Whalen, the Liberal incumbent in the provincial Halifax Clayton Park--the Liberal party's best shot at a credible candidate--is no fool. She's staying where she is, thank you very much, and is leaving the field to either Alexis MacDonald or Megan Leslie, either one of whom could win the riding for the NDP in a walk.
08 09 04 Mark R
?Alexa never won by alot??? Alexa's margin of victory in '06 was just about the number of votes that the Conservative candidate received. The NDP is strong in HFX-Metro area and even with Ms. McDonough retiring, Alexis and her experience as a formidable candidate against Peter McKay should not be discounted. NDP hold with 5,000 vote margin.
08 09 04 Big Tuna
The NDP have a strong candidate but if Diana Whalen decides to run she'll give her a good run and just might take it.
08 09 03 binriso
With a provincial MLA Diana Whalen going to possibly run for the Liberals here, there is certainly a chance for them to win since Alexa didnt always win by a lot and any candidate they have now will be of lower profile. Id still say the NDP would win but they could be reduced to a single seat in Nova Scotia(Stoffer is basically unbeatable) or could win a couple new ones even(South Shore St Margarets and Dartmouth Cole-Harbour maybe).
08 09 02 Political Junkie
Considering how well Alexis MacDonald did against Peter McKay in 2004 and 2006, she should have no problem holding on to Halifax for the NDP, where the base for the party is stronger and historically stronger. Indeed, any other NDP candidate would likely be able to hold the riding for the party (assuming an unlikely scenario where Alexis failed to get the NDP nomination). I will add that it is pointless to base predictions of an NDP victory in Halifax upon the fact that the provincial NDP holds every seat within the federal riding. Afterall, the same applies to Dartmouth yet it is now a rather safe Liberal seat federally.
08 08 22 David Young
A third person has entered the race to gain the NDP nomination in HALIFAX and succeed Alexa McDonough.
Irvine Carvery, a former president of the Africville Geneological Society, who also tried for a provincial NDP nomination in the riding of HALIFAX-NEEDHAM before the 1998 provincial election, will be trying to win the nomination.
Three strong contenders for the nomination so far!
An easy hold for the NDP though, no matter who gets it.
08 08 21 ASD
I don't think Maureen MacDonald is going to run here (or any of the other NDP MLAs from the area, including Howard Epstein) because she (and they) think they are going to be cabinet ministers in an NDP provincial government relatively soon. The candidates for the NDP nomination so far are Alexis MacDonald, who is very attractive and personable and, as we all know, came somewhat close to beating Peter MacKay in my home riding of Central Nova (quite a feat) but has only thin connections to Halifax, and Megan Leslie, who works at Dal Legal Aid and has far more community ties to Halifax but, I'm assuming, not the same rock star status within the NSNDP. And there could be more jumping in as well. It's going to be quite a nomination, but the NDP should not assume that this seat is safe. The Tories have no real shot here but if things really go their way, the Liberals could potentially pick this off. While Alexa won easily in 2006 against a poor Liberal candidate, she just barely defeated popular local councillor (and current HRM mayoral candidate) Sheila Fougere in 2004 and her 2000 race against Kevin Little was a bit closer than most were expecting.
08 08 15 MadCaper
Although Alexa McDonough has decided to retire there is little doubt that she will stay heavily involved in this riding. The other thing to consider is if Alexis MacDonald or Maureen MacDonald decide to run in this riding for the N.D.P. their is little doubt in my humble opinion tat the New Democrats will hold this riding fairly easily. Maureen MacDonald has a very good rapport with the people of this riding being an elected M.L.A. in a Provincial riding within the Federal one. Alexis MacDonald also has a very high profile across the Province due to the fact that she very nearly defeated Peter McKay in Central Nova in the last Federal Election. Their would have to be a total collapse od the N.D.P. vote in this riding to provide an upset here, but, that is not going to happen in the foreseeable future.
08 08 03 David Young
There will be a news conference on Tuesday, August 5th, at Pier 21 in Halifax, when Alexis MacDonald will announce that she will be seeking the NDP nomination in the riding of HALIFAX to succeed Alexa McDonough.
With her history of coming in second to Peter MacKay in CENTRAL NOVA in 2004 and 2006, the polls showing increasing strength for the provincial NDP, as well as them easily holding all 5 of the provincial seats within the federal riding of HALIFAX, it will be no problem for Alexis to hold this riding whenever the next election happens.
08 08 02 Devon P
Alexis MacDonald, who ran in Central Nova and almost beat Peter Mackay in 2006, is seeking the nomination in Halifax. If she gets it, this is an NDP hold no problem.
08 06 24 Brian A
So, over a year later and I was right about Alexa stepping down, and now this riding is TCTC. It's really too premature to call this riding for any party before we know who's running. The NDP still have the edge, since Alexa was a good MP, but a strong Liberal candidate could take it if the NDP nominate a no-namer. We'll see, I guess.
08 06 05 Michael
This may have to go back to Too Close to Count if it is true that Alexa has decided not to run again. I read that in the paper yesterday, and assume it is true. Nova Scotians (I used to live there) tend to vote for incumbents even more than the rest of the country, and are perhaps more influenced my local candidates than the party too. A strong candidate could keep this in the NDP fold, but it is too early to say yet.
08 06 05 Can-eh-dian Redhead
TCTC. Now that Alexa has expressed she won?t run again, all bets are off.
Halifax has had a recent history of progressive voting, with the Liberal candidate coming in 2nd (and in some cases, giving NDPer Alexa a run for her money) the last 3 elections. Further, the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives have never finished any higher than a somewhat distant 3rd. So it appears to be open to any of the centre-and-left parties. A star candidate would definitely sway that balance for any of the Liberals, NDP or Green Parties.
Perhaps Brian Appel?s April 13, 2007 comment wasn?t so off the mark after all.
08 06 05 David Young
Even with Alexa not re-offering once the next election is called, the N.D.P. will have no problem holding this seat.
All five of the provincial seats within the federal riding of HALIFAX are strong N.D.P. ridings.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if one of those M.L.A.'s, Maureen MacDonald, decides to switch to federal politics.
Or it could be former CENTRAL NOVA candidate Alexis MacDonald, who now lives in Halifax, could seek the nomination.
Either way, this riding will remain N.D.P. for the foreseeable future!
08 06 02 binriso
Well Alexa is retiring, that opens up the race, she was very popular and well-liked and the Liberals have a good chance at taking this seat for the first time since 1993. One thing though is that she might have stepped aside for Alexis Macdonald to run here, if that is the case the NDP will probably win again since Macdonald is a strong candidate who came relatively close to beating Peter Mackay (about 7-10% or so). Other than that, its a 2-way race. CPC or Green for that matter dont really have a chance other than to spoil as things stand now. Might have been a good riding for Elizabeth May to run in though and she would have had a better chance here than in Central Nova.
08 06 02 T.V.
Alexa McDonough just announced that she's not running again. This blows the race wide open. I think the expected Liberal candidate withdrew, so they should now be able to attract someone fairly prominent.
08 02 23 A.S.
While Alexa's maintained her grip on Halifax since 1997, it hasn't been the firmest of grips: barely 40% against lesser opponents on '00, nearly losing to Liberal in '04--as diligent and seemingly locally beloved as she is, I can still sense a bit of a ‘1988 Flora MacDonald’ cloud hanging over her. Though have I heard talk of a Mary Clancy political comeback in the works? In a funny way, that might actually help Alexa more than it hurts her...
07 09 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Umm...T.V., we think your assumption is a little screwy. ?All those Tories switching to the Liberals? would not be enough to toplle Alexa. Oh mathematically it's possible....if about 8000 Tory voters decide to go Grit. That's about 90% of the people who voted CPC in 2006 AND assuming they ALL go to the Liberals as opposed to voting something else or just staying home. Like we said, mathematically it's possible, but it is not the least bit realistic.
07 09 25 Adam H.
I don't know what poll you read, but the latest one that I took a look at had the Liberals at 40%, with the NDP and Conservatives tied at 25%. The Greens are at 9% in the region. Broadly speaking, just because the Liberals are up in Atlantic Canada and the Tories are down doesn't mean that that affects the Halifax riding to a large extent. As a matter of fact, the Liberal lead was larger in the last election, although it is no 50%. (the Liberals took 44% of the vote in Atlantic Canada in '06) The key here would be to look at NDP support: If it is the same as in '06, which it nearly is, that means that the NDP is likely holding strong where they are strong, namely Halifax. My guess is that the Liberals are taking support from the Conservatives in largely rural areas, if they are at all. Again, a balance of probabilities points to Alexa holding on to her seat.
07 09 22 T.V.
Recent polling has the Liberals at 50% in Atlantic Canada and Conservative support plummetting to 18%. All those Tories switching to the Liberals may well be enough to topple Alexa McDonough.
07 09 19 Adam H.
The NDP will not lose this riding in the next election, especially with Alexa running again.
Some people will point to the 2004 result in which Alexa won by a 'close' 2000 votes as reason that this seat could go Liberal. In that election, the Liberals ran a popular Halifax city councillor, Sheila Fougere. As well, the national Liberal campaign (they won a minority) was much stronger. Having lived in the riding, many people voted Liberal with the hopes of keeping Stephen Harper and the Conservatives out of government. By the time the 2006 election rolled around, people understood that the Conservatives were going to win anyway, so they weren't afraid of voting NDP.
Perhaps more importantly, Halifax is the strongest NDP city as far as provincial politics go in the entire country. The NDP holds 13 of 17 provincial seats in the city, and have a much more strong organization on the ground than the Liberals, who have never been weaker in province than they are at the moment. The seats that aren't NDP following the 2006 N.S. provincial election are suburbs/rural seats. You can guess who finished second in the four seats in Halifax that the Dippers didn't win.
It would take a star Liberal candidate with a lacklustre NDP candidate in a Liberal election year to push this seat to the Liberals. Ideologically, this seat isn't out of the Liberals grasp, but because the Liberals have drifted to the right since the early 1990s and the NDP to the centre over the same period, it will be very difficult to unseat Alexa at this time or in the near future.
Halifax is a highly educated riding with an economy based around government services, universities, the military, and a successful port. Certainly a recipe for Liberal success (see Halifax West/Dartmouth), but there are too many factors going for Alexa and the NDP in Halifax right now.
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
I’m going to predict NDP. For now. If the Liberals start polling a victory (right now the Tories are holding steady nationally from the last election) and if they start encroaching on Majority territory, this is one of the last ridings that would fall their way to get that Majority. Short of that, the NDP should hold it no matter which candidate they run.
07 07 03 binriso
Watch for this one when Alexa retires and it will be very close and could easily go Liberal. That said Mcdonough will win Halifax quite solidly probably by about 10-15%. The Liberals do have a very small chance here though. The CPC dont have a prayer.
07 04 16 A. Wright
Brian Appel, where do you dream this stuff up? First, Alexa has just been renominated. She loves being the MP for Halifax and works damn hard at it. Second, when she does step down in the *future*, the nomination won't decided in some backroom and handed over to someone. It will be an open and democratic contest. And since Halifax is an NDP riding with all provincial ridings in the NDP column as well, there will be more than one person going for it.
07 04 13 Brian Appel
Apparently, there's now some backroom discussions with Alexa to step down in order to allow the NDP candidate for Central Nova from '04 and '06, Alexis MacDonald, to run here. Perhaps it's something to do with the NDP choosing to nominate a lower-end candidate in Central Nova and tacitly help May in her fight with MacKay. Anyway, it's still likely that nothing will come of it, but if Alexa does step down so Alexis can run, look for it to be a close race. Alexis is a young, down-to-earth person of some regard in Antigonish and, specifically, in St. FX University. She would appeal to the students in the riding and would make a fine candidate.
07 04 10 J.F. Breton
Je penche nettement pour une réélection d'Alexa. Ceci dit, qui sera candidat vert dans cette circonscription? Quel sera l'effet attractif d'Elizabeth May sur le votre néo-démocrate en Nouvelle-Écosse? Il faudra surveiller ces tendances pendant la campagne. Personnellement, je crois que ce sera assez minime, grapillant des votes un peu partout. Victoire NPD.
07 04 08 joe
8,000 vote margin last time and you say it's 'too close to call'????? Please. NDP hold. Throw in the fact all provincial ridings in the area are NDP, and it makes it even more dubious that any other party is going to knock her off. Alexa is not going anywhere until she retires.
07 04 06 JG
Alexa's margin of victory was large in 2006 and, provincially, this part of Halifax is an NDP fortress. She is personally popular, and unless a really remarkable Liberal candidate runs, she will win easily.
07 03 28 CCrosby
Alexa's margin GREW in the last election by a great deal into a landslide. She is in absolutely no danger. The Liberals' numbers haven't moved at all and are in fact sinking and it would take a massive turnaround in Liberal and NDP fortunes to reverse a rock-solid seat like this. Liberals have no chance whatsoever in Halifax what with the provicial NDP infrastructure (all five and a half seats in his federal seat provincially are held by the NDP as well), Alexa's organization and a badly organized, dispirited Liberal base in Halifax. A lock.
07 03 25 Ancastarian
Alexa McDonough will hold this seat. She is a former NDP leader, and despite her margin of victory shrinking each election, personal popularity and a good campaign will probably see her hold this seat, although the future is more bleak for many New Democrat Mp's.
07 03 21 Brian Appel
Make no mistake, this riding should be labelled as TCTC right now, and probably even after the election is called. This riding could easily become Liberal, as it almost did in 2004, if the Liberals fortunes increase a bit. Alexa is still supposed to be running, but if she decides not to, then it's even more a possible Liberal pickup, even if somebody like Chisholm runs. For now, though, I'll leave this one in the NDP column.

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