08 03 01	Pierre from Qu?bec 213.22.149.17
The winning margins of Peter MacKay in 2004 amd 2006 show that people in Central Nova don't love him. With the federal and provincial Conservative governments displaying low support numbers, I think the Leader of the Green Party has a great chance of winning here.
	08 08 22	Mad Max 67.70.44.181
Elizabeth May couldn't defeat a washed up & defeated no name Liberal in a London By Election. The environment was the #1 issue at the time, and May was in GP friendly Ontario,yet she only received 25% of the casted votes. The NDP were insignificant in this riding. With May able to exploit the LPC voters 2006, they will have to determine if they want May or if they want to vote CPC, NDP or None of the above. Any blaming of the GP Leaders inability to defeat a cabinet minister because of the NDP is propoganda. Those comments are out of the LPC campaign strategy playbook. It would be unrealistic to believe that 10,000 people who voted for the LPC in 2006 are automatically voting for May. This riding isn't too close to call. May is no Alexis, and the LPC handout won't be enough. Chatty Kathy loses. It stays Conservative.
	08 08 21	ASD 204.50.175.140
I agree with Hannah Montana below. The NDP will ensure that MacKay wins the seat. Lorefice is no Alexis MacDonald and she has very little chance at winning here. Even if she's big on the Antigonish end (and I doubt that) but she seems non-existent in Pictou County and that's where most people live. In Pictou County, at the moment it seems like a MacKay vs. May race and you never hear anything from or about Lorefice. I think May is going to do better than most people ever imagined she would when she first got in the race. At this point (and this could change) I think she will finish a relatively strong second. If they can't win, NDPers would rather see Peter win than May because if the Green Party gets a foothold in Parliament, it's possibly very bad news for them.
	08 08 15	MadCaper 142.68.165.49
The is little doubt that Peter MacKay is still the frontrunner in this race,but,this race is far from over. Having talked to relatives in the Antigonish area in the last week they tell me that the word on the street is that the New Democrats and their candidate Louise Loriface have started to regain some of the support that they had lost to Elizabeth May. They believe that May's support has possibly peaked a bit too soon and she has been on a slow but steady decline in the past couple of months. When you couple this with the fact that the Conservatives popularity is on the decline in the entire Atlantic Region and the possibility that the N.D.P. will bring in Alexis MacDonald for some canvassing with Loriface to help solidify some of the support that she had managed to build in the previous two campaigns,if Loriface can continue to build on the momentum that she has apparently established in the last little while she may just gain enough support to upset MacKay whenever the next election is called.Regardless this will be an interesting 3 way race to the end.
	08 05 12	Hannah Montana 216.13.88.86
With the Green Party digging in hard to their support and getting closer to passing them by, the last thing in the world the NDP want is Liz May to win Central Nova and take as seat in the parliament of Canada. That kind of breakthrough could mean the end of the NDP. So look for the New Democrats to shut down all their other campaigns in this part of the province and send every last worker and dollar they have to Central Nova. Luckily for Peter Mac this NDP strategy is going to make sure he beats May and keeps his seat. The NDP will finish a lame third but successfully split the anti-MacKay vote in Central Nova to the point where May can't win. Look for a very happy group of NDPers celebrating in their headquarters in Central Nova and they keep May out of parliament.
	08 04 18	RLW 24.89.220.118
The tories arent doing anything. May has people in from all over that draw huge crowds. Antigonish is virulently in May's camp. No NDP/LIB splitting there wit people voting ABC. It will go to May.
	08 04 01	Mad Max 69.157.77.68
This seat is McKays to Lose. The Liberal/Green Deal is not going to pay off enough to win. Elizabeth May has had a free ride, but the more she talks the more she has to backtrack and it isn't going over well. I think her chances were better last year when the announcement was made then they are today. The Dark horse in this is Lorifice and the NDP. Should May continue to babble, then Lorifice will have a shot as the only legitimate Challenge to McKay, but I still see this as a Conservative hold if an election were held today.
	08 02 06	A. Lewis 142.177.99.116
The NDP will elect Peter MacKay. May will come second. The federal Greens will put all their money and energy into this one riding, and MacKay will be left flapping in the wind by the Conservatives due to division over the Atlantic Accord mess and Bill Casey's departure. But, as they always do, the NDP will spoil the best chance they have to get rid of the lying Conservative whose lies gave us Harper's Reformative party in the first place. The NDP likes keeping Conservatives in power because it makes more people poor and thus builds up their base vote. The provincial NDP which is the same organization as the federal will pile in to ensure May loses, because they are terrified that the Green rise is their own fall. There's no provincial Green Party to speak of and it's a separate organization anyway so there'd be no additional help from there. This makes it a from-away urban party against a locally based one, and the end result will be MacKay winning even though he doesn't deserve to win. Alexis MacDonald's base WILL vote for Elizabeth May, she comes from the same Moses Coady tradition, but the NDP is a vindictive organization that lies to get what it wants, as surely as MacKay does. In Central Nova, lies work, obviously, or MacKay could never get elected in the first place. He'll be the last Conservative standing in Nova Scotia after Keddy goes down to Gordon Earle.
	08 01 23	Adam H. 72.138.135.5
I don't think the previous analysis lends itself to very much actual social science as it does Green Party wishful thinking. I agree with you that Alexis was a very strong candidate, and that she was a big factor in the NDP being able to grow its support in the riding from single digits to more than thirty percent. However, I think that you're overlooking the reality that the NDP vote in general, both federally and especially provincially, has grown exponentially in the last ten years in Nova Scotia. The NDP took two ridings in one of the most small 'c' conservative areas in the country in the 2006 provincial election (this area), meaning there's more than Alexis MacDonald at work here. I would say that it's more two parts party to one part candidate in that regard. MacKay will likely hang on to the riding, he's viewed as a strong cabinet minister and like a previous poster said, the riding has gone Conservative every time for 40 years, safe 1993. I work in the polling industry, and May and the Greens are consistenty in third place in this riding according to our evaluations. To assert that the Greens would go from under two percent of the vote to 44 percent is a pipe dream. May does have a fighting chance because of the splintering of the Liberal vote, but again our data shows that most of that vote expresses a desire to either stay away or vote NDP in this riding. Again, MacKay takes it with the NDP in second, with May getting no more than 15-20 percent of the vote.
	08 01 17	Dave Campbell 142.227.224.6
Give me a break, Elizabeth May may be popular, charismatic, have good policy etc, but Central Nova is not gong to be where the Greens break through. Peter Mackay is a strong candidate whose election results are deceiving. As well a large % of the Liberal vote is Red Tory and will either vote Tory or stay home. Central Nova is a rural riding and as about as Tory as Atlantic Canada gets. The Greens will win a seat in this election but probably in a Vancouver riding.
	08 01 16	Political Junkie 156.34.232.211
I cannot speak to the evolving political dynamics of Central Nova in any meaningful way, as I currently live about 400 km from the riding and know no one who lives there, but I would like to offer a cautionary note in response to those posters who are claiming that NDP voters will never switch to the Greens. I think they are making the mistake of imposing the opinions of die hard, card-carrying New Democrats, who do depise the Greens and would never touch them, upon all of the NDP voters in Central Nova. This surely cannot be the case and thus it would be folly to assume that all of the 32% or so who voted NDP here in 2006 will never consider voting Green.
	07 12 26	Berk 74.14.146.97
A three way race... You've got to be kidding me. The only reason the NDP ever even made a mark last time around was because, who had taken the party from 6.5% to 32.9%. With an alliance like May has, she would have won easily. Alexis had taken the riding as far as she could take it and she has set Elizabeth May up for an easy victory. The NDP as a party may not like the Liberals and the Greens, but thats only because the NDP are much more interested in getting more votes and playing partisan politics then they are trying to get things done. NDP voters on the other hand see both the Liberals and the Greens as a great alternative, and with the Liberals not running a candidate and endorsing Elizabeth as Green candidate, the NDP voters that had switched to Alexis will go to the Greens, plus atleast half the Liberal vote and also alittleof Peters PC vote (he can keep his reform/Canadian alliance vote) With that said, my prediction is: Greens- 44% (15 from NDP - 16 from Liberal - 10 from Conservative plus what they had) Conservative- 32 (He can have a few Liberal protest votes) NDP- 22 (They can also have a few more Liberal protest votes) Other- 2% (I know the Canadian action party is running, and I can imagine a strong liberal running as a candidate- no one yet, and with the exception to Casey, Independents running under another party platform never do well.) Even with a high margin of error I think Elizabeth has the riding.
	07 12 17	Jonathan 24.222.237.154
There are a number of things people must remember 1.The fact that the Green Party Candidate received 1.56 percent of the vote in the last election. 2.This riding has been Conservative for all but once in the past 40 plus years. 3.Elizabeth May has never lived in this riding until she decided to run here. 4.This is a rural riding, that doesn’t put environmental issues at the top of their list. 5.Peter Mackay is an important Cabinet Minister that has brought a lot of resources and funding to this area. 6.The NDP will never vote for Elizabeth May. 7.The Liberals of Central Nova will not move on mass to one party, some will vote Conservative , some will vote NDP, some will vote Green and many will stay home. Elizabeth May will not attract a huge amount of Liberals as they feel that she has taken away their right to run a candidate. 8.The more Elizabeth May talks the more people in this rural riding realize she isn’t serious about winning here. This riding is as safe or safer for Peter Mackay then any past election that he has run in. I find it funny when people who have never lived here in Central Nova, try to predict what will happen here.
	07 12 09	CM 207.47.221.126
HA! Loftus sounds like a Green/Liberal who is caught up in all the hype. Remember, the NDP hate the greens for splitting the vote for so many years, there is no way that there will be NDP supporters joining the Green/Liberal camp. This is definitely a TCTC 3 way race as it stands now, and likely will be on e-day unless something drastic happens. By drastic I mean sex scandal or murder charges would be the only thing that would make this easy to predict.
	07 12 08	Loftus 24.89.220.118
May will win this seat, The Liberals will come out and vote for her and the NDP are starting to show up at Green events. I'm from here and I can tell you a mixture of Harpers Atlantic policy+10 years of MacKay+Pretty much united left means May wins. Everyone should SEE the turn out she has at events. I couldn't believe it myself. E MAY wins with around what PMAC got last time.
	07 11 20	A.S. 99.233.96.153
An even closer case in point re said cautionary note about family (or party, for that matter) dynasties: Dominic LeBlanc's initial loss to the NDP's Angela Vautour in Beausejour in 1997. As for Central Nova, I wouldn't bet the farm on or against eMay; however, if the recent ‘electable Green’ pattern holds (eMay in London NC; Shane Jolley provincially in BGOS), I'll have to conclude that the only ones who thinks the NDP will win under the present conditions are chip-on-the-shoulder partisans. And because this might genuinely have been TCTC on the NDP's behalf if not for eMay, I empathize...
	07 11 13	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.64.123.65
A cautionary note to Johnny No-Name below, about family dynasties. True they help children get elected after their parent have retired from politics, but it doesn't always help they fend off angry voters or significant changes in voting habits. Case in point, Sue Whelan in Essex. We're not saying MacKay is going to lose. We're saying that he is going to have to face voter anger for the Atlantic accord and the family dynasty may not hold.
	07 11 12	99.225.243.116
I think MacKay will win...the Greens may win more votes as Dion's Liberals are so called backing up May, but what can I say, this is MacKay territory.... and family names, especially incumbent ones with a minister's post, often gets reelected (Peter is the current minister of defence and his father Elmer was the incumbent until he retire in 1993 and the riding was abolished until recreation in 2003, before then Peter was elected in 1997 in Pictou?Antigonish?Guysborough which is basically the same geographical location as Central Nova). Look at the recent Ontario Elections, Don Valley East - Caplan territory (David is the Minister of Public Infrastructure Renewal and his mother was the incumbent before she moved to Federal Politics in 1999), Ottawa South - McGuinty territory (Dalton is the Premier and his father was the imcumbent before retiring in 1990)...Peter will win this riding
	07 11 08	Buck 140.184.130.201
Here's the thing that is in Peter's favor. Liberal Party members and activists, might actively support Elizabeth May. Liberal Party voters might take a very different view. Take my wife (for example), she is a Liberal Party voter, who would hold her nose and vote for Peter MacKay because she thinks that voting NDP or Green would be a complete mistake. There are lots of center and center-right Liberals who will likely do the same thing. I think MacKay's margin will be a lot bigger than many people think.
	07 09 24	GFW 70.55.58.30
To close to call. If McKay gets re-elected, it'll be by a whisker. I don't see this as going Green. There simply aren't enough Liberal votes to give the Greens that critical mass they need to vault from 4th to 1st place. While Ms May has been campaigning in Central Nova for awhile now, I hear that the NDP is also going full throttle in pre-campaign mode. I've also heard that the local Libs are royally PO'd over not being able to run one of their own this time. The NDP is in a good position to take Central Nova, but this is a conservative riding, so it'll be close no matter who wins. The person who predicted that Central Nova will go Green with 30%+ obviously cannot count.
	07 09 19	Adam H. 74.101.6.98
I would really like to see the NDP win this riding, and there is no doubt they would have a fighting chance if Alexis MacDonald was running again, but she isn't. Peter MacKay will pull this out again, I have no doubt, and it will be about as close with the NDP as it was in 2006 (40% to 33%) People are putting way too much stock in Elizabeth May and the Green Party in this riding. This is one of the most small 'c' conservative areas in the country. If Elizabeth May wanted to get elected, she would have tried a riding in B.C. where the Greens have an actual chance of winning. May is running here for publicity reasons - MacKay is the most prominent Atlantic Canadian MP (along with McDonough and Brison), and the Conservatives are the most anti-environment party on the ticket. In rural Atlantic Canada, party politics are less ideological and more like a game of root for your favorite team. Some Liberal supporters are simply going to stay away from the polls, but most that do vote will back the NDP, just because they simply will not vote Conservative. We have to remember that the Liberals are the third-place party in this riding, and that the NDP picked up a seat from the Tories in the 2006 Provincial Election. The NDP benefits the most from the Liberals being absent. The Greens biggest draw here is their tax policy - not their environmental policy. Problem is, anyone in this riding who is going to the polls for lower taxes is already voting for MacKay and the Conservatives. Yes, the Greens are polling at 9% in N.S., but that sure as hell isn't in Pictou and Antigonish counties, it's in Halifax, where nearly 50% of Nova Scotians live. Don't be fooled by the provincial numbers. Above all, people in Central Nova are a socially conservative bunch who federally have always voted Tory. The NDP picks up some support because of the older population (health care), and the old union vote, as well as the students at St. Francis Xavier University. I just don't see how the Greens fit in here, even with May running. I expect them to get no more than 15% of the vote.
	07 08 22	J.Mc. 64.183.138.101
I think this is TCTC between Conservative and NDP, with the Greens taking a strong third, with neither party breaking the 40% mark. While a few Liberals will back their party's 'de facto' candidate, May, I would predict that most would go to the established alternative party of the left - the NDP, while the right wing Liberals would vote Tory. Of course, Liberal anger may be enough that one of their members could run as an independent, who could carry much of the former Liberal vote, leaving the centre-left split 3 ways, and allowing MacKay to come up the middle and re-take his riding. Definitely a riding to watch.
	07 07 12	binriso 156.34.211.188
A new poll released gives the Liberals a solid lead in the Atlantic region and the CPC falling fast and almost tied with the NDP in third. LIB 40% CPC 27% NDP 24% GRN 9%. Now i know this is only one poll but others have shown the CPC down this far. Also the GRN at 9% is a very good sign for them. No doubt most of that support is in NS and probably centralized in this riding. Most other polls show them at 6-7% in the Atlantic so theres no doubt of them making gains in ridings and probably doubling their total vote from 06 in the region. They better capitalize on their slight successes when the environment is one of the top national issues or they will lose much of their support base. The Dion-May deal will also lead to a few more Green's voting strategically Liberal which could impact various other ridings in Canada and could prove decisive in the election to determine the winner or if it is a majority/minority government situation. May's got a viable chance to unseat Mackay now and it wouldnt overly surprise me if she did. I guess well see how rock-solid the Mackay support really is now.
	07 06 22	Tom 69.86.16.159
After some hesitancy to call this, I'm going to say Central Nova will be the first riding to go Green. Interestingly, it's certainly not one we would have expected to go Green or even be close in 2004 or 2006, so how much this portends a good future for the Greens is up in the air. However, the Conservatives have absolutely plummeted in popularity in Nova Scotia since the budget vote, and I cannot fathom how either of their Nova Scotia MPs could be returned. The Greens, for their relatively centrist positions, stand to benefit from this mass former-PC exodus (Reform/Alliance types are rare, to say the least, in NS) far more than the NDP. Of course, they will also pick up angry Liberal voters whose party has endorsed May and probably a lot of NDP voters who want MacKay out and see May as the best vote against him. I am willing to call this one for May with slightly over 40% of the vote. Ane stimate is below. Elizabeth May (GRN) - 41.5% (+39.9) Peter MacKay (CON) - 31.7% (-8.9) Louise Lorefice (NDP) - 26.8% (-6.1) No Candidate (LIB) - 0% (-24.6)
	07 06 17	Matt 74.14.144.178
Elizabeth May opened her campaign office earlier this month and plans on opening a second campaign office when the election draws near. Bill Casey may have just rolled out the red carpet for Elizabeth May as far as winning a seat in Central Nova. Bill Casey, by himself proved that Peter Mackay will not stand up for Atlantic Canada as long as his job is at stake. I don't blame him personally, he gets paid alot of money. However makes him look even more greedy and power hungry then your average politician.
	07 06 16	binriso 156.34.222.118
OK well now its TCTC because of the budget although i still give the advantage to Mackay. The CPC better hope they don’t have an election soon or their Atlantic caucus will be decimated. They’d probably only re-elect half of them.
	07 06 09	JC 207.188.64.230
MacKay has recently lost his credibility by stating that no one would be kicked out of the party for their votes on the budget, It turned out MacKay lied and Bill Casey got Booted. Couple that with his broken promise to David Orchard, MacKay is going down in flames in the next election if the parties can portray him as a liar.
	07 06 06	Tom 69.86.16.159
Bill Casey's vote against the budget and subsequent expulsion from the Conservatives have changed things in this riding as much as in his. There will be a great deal of anger with the Conservatives for breaching the trust of Atlantic Canada, and I expect that will come down hardest on Conservative ministers there and the prominent MacKay most of all. Will the anger that only Casey stood up to the government on the issue be enough to topple MacKay in Central Nova? I think the Greens have a better shot at it than the NDP does or the Liberals would; there are simply too many Conservatives who refuse point blank to vote NDP or Liberal. You can be certain that May will be campaigning hard on her Atlantic Canada credentials. Right now, it's too early to say how strong May will end up being, but things did just get a lot more dangerous for Peter MacKay.
	07 06 06	binriso 156.34.212.113
Since everyone seems to be weighing in on the Central Nova race... Mackay is certainly able to be defeated, he didn?t win by that much last time so if he loses I wont be too surprised. Of course the deal here between the Liberals and Greens changes things quite a bit. I don?t really see too many Liberals going over to Mackay and the NDP is quite strong here too. I?d expect the NDP to hold most of their vote from last election with some going Green. Another thing that could happen would be an independant Liberal Candidate that would draw off the votes from last election. This is certainly a 3 way race albeit not an extremely close one like some ridings in BC. All 3 parties NDP Green and Conservative could potentially win. For now im pretty sure Mackay will be reelected with a similar % to last election perhaps a bit higher margin of victory because of the left vote splitting. Things will definitely change though as we move closer to the election. CON 42 GRN 29 NDP 29 Maybe the other parties can convince some right wing fringe candidates to run for the Christian Heritage party or the Libertarians? That might pull off a few votes from Mackay. the CHP polled 3.4% in South Shore in 06 and I figure they?d have somewhat similar support in this rural riding as well if they ran. Of course all of their votes would come from Mackay helping the 2 other parties. Seeing how this race has changed since the deal between Dion and May, The NDP probably have a better chance in the South Shore riding as opposed to this one. It is true that the Liberals have little chance of winning here and i agree that the Dion May deal is probably a bit more positive than negative for both parties. It?ll be interesting to see what the Liberal riding association will do now. Also it will be interesting to see where their votes go. Polls are pretty much stagnant since the election with similar numbers for all major parties with the exception of the Greens being up a bit. Some polls give the Liberals a 20 point lead in the Atlantic region while others say it?s within the margin of error. The Nova Scotia government has been somewhat unpopular and that could have an effect on the incumbent Mackay. The budget also shafted a lot of the regions including Nova Scotia in favor of giving more money to Quebec which could also play a role in the vote.
	07 05 08	Michael Mulroney 213.33.77.174
Stéphane Dion’s decision not to run a Liberal against May in Central Nova was a brilliant strategic move. May doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the riding, and she probably has no aspirations to win. The Liberals came third last time, and the combined Liberal-Green vote is still less than the NDP vote from last election. She couldn't possibly expect to actually win the riding unless the Liberals dropped out and endorsed her and then NDP followed suit. But the NDP refused to withdraw, and just like that, Dion and May's brilliant plan to finally get a Green MP elected went down the tubes. Obviously they aren't that stupid. The NDP of course won't drop out because their odds of unseating MacKay have improved dramatically in the absence of a Liberal candidate. Despite the fact that MacKay is a cabinet minister and a popular candidate, he only won in 2006 by 3,273 votes. And now the Liberals have left 10,349 up for grabs. MacKay is no longer safe. The NDP are going to pour tons of resources into his riding to try to unseat Harper’s abominable conservative lapdog. And the Conservatives are going to fight tooth and nail to hold the riding. Who knows what the dynamic of this election will be like in the absence of a Liberal candidate? The Conservatives can’t take this for granted, and the NDP would love to pull off such a sweet upset. Both are going to pour tons of valuable resources into the riding, and the Liberals won’t waste any. Meanwhile, May is free to either campaign in Central Nova to try to win a half-respectable vote share, or campaign across the country and ignore her riding. It doesn’t matter; the damage has been done. May would have to have been very naïve to think that the NDP would step aside for her. Perhaps May recognizes that the Green Party, after many failed attempts at ever gaining ground in Canadian politics, will unlikely elect one this election. The Green Party has tried for too long to elect members, and environmental issues such as climate change are becoming increasingly urgent. Unlike the Green Party, the Liberal party is a viable and legitimate candidate for government. And as long as Dion is leader of the Liberals, his party will cover much of the same ground and emphasize many of the same issues as the Green Party. May clearly recognizes that her greatest hope of promoting the important issues of her party is by helping the Liberals defeat the Conservatives instead of splitting votes. The Green Party loses, but environmental issues are more important than political gains. The Liberals also have much to gain from this alliance with the Green Party. By collaborating with May, Dion gains credibility for his party’s environmental platform. In Central Nova specifically, Dion’s gesture confirms his sincerity and commitment to environmental issues. Layton’s failure to do match Dion’s move in the riding detracts from his party’s position as the primary alternative to the Green Party. The Liberals stepped aside in Central Nova, the NDP obviously took the bait; they couldn’t resist the opportunity to unseat MacKay, but it will cost them environmental votes across the country, especially since this race will get lots of media attention. Central Nova is one less lost cause for Dion to worry about, and the May deal is a perfect excuse not to waste valuable resources. This whole Central Nova deal is just a charade, a diversion tactic and an attempt to make something from nothing. The Liberals never had a shot in this riding and the Greens don't have much of a shot in any riding, let alone this one. The Liberals disappoint a few die-hard Liberals in the riding who have traditionally been outnumbered by die-hard Tories anyhow. The Green Party, yet again, fails to elect its leader. May's concession of Dion’s landslide riding in Montreal is, of course, completely irrelevant. Thus, neither the Greens nor the Liberals lose anything of considerable value. It was a brilliant tactical manoeuvre for both May and Dion. As far as the prediction for the riding, I think that MacKay will hold but it will be a close race. I am not sure how many Liberals will vote NDP, Conservative, Green, or vote at all, and I don’t think anyone knows. This is rural Nova Scotia, where families have been voting the same way for generations. Liberals are beside themselves and their ancestors are rolling over in their graves six feet under. The only sure thing is that the Green’s won’t win; the absence of a Liberal candidate will sooner produce riots than a Green Party victory. The NDP needs about 35% of the 2006 Liberal vote to beat MacKay, and I am sure they will very hard to get it, but I’m not sure they can pull it off against an incumbent cabinet minister.
	07 05 02	Joe 68.148.61.68
That Angus Reid poll did do a break out of Atlantic Canadians and showed the Greens running third.
	07 04 30	D. Alexander 142.177.110.189
I should add that the poll mentioned below surveyed 1009 Canadians, not residents of Central Nova. The question asked was ‘If you were a voter residing in Nova Scotia’s Central Nova riding, which of these candidates would you support in the next federal election?’ Peter MacKay (Con.) - 35% Elizabeth May (Grn.) - 22% Louise Loriface (NDP) - 16% None of these - 27% So the numbers do not reflect the sentiment in the Central Nova riding, but rather of Canadians if they had the chance to vote in Central Nova. www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15518
	07 04 30	D. Alexander 142.177.110.189
I live in Central Nova. Peter MacKay will win this riding again. He will not go below 40%. A majority of Liberals will either not be voting, will be spoiling their ballot (writing in a Liberal candidate), or voting for anyone but Elizabeth May. Liberals in this riding are not pleased with the Dion-May deal and are not planning to support the Greens simply because the Liberal leader has endorsed her. This is the word on the street -- in community centres, restaurants and hockey rinks.
	07 04 26	R J Anderson 142.177.114.243
Immediately after her deal with Dion, May stated repeatedly, even under extreme pressure from former NDP leader Ed Broadbent, that she was open to a similar deal with the NDP. However, May also permitted John Chenery, her Director of Communications, Sara Giovannone, seeking the St. Catharines nomination, and several others, to undermine her authority to make such a deal by repeating over and over again that the Green Party of Canada ?will be running 307? in the next election. Given that this is allowed to continue with no discipline or contradiction from May, Jack Layton is correct to interpret May as weak and refuse to deal with her to remove the NDP candidate in Central Nova. Given that there is now no chance of that, Peter MacKay will win easily. Once again the Green Party of Canada is undone by its own lack of internal discipline.
	07 04 26	Calev 208.114.135.81
Angus Reid came out with a poll for Central Nova this week which showed 35% would support Peter MacKay while only 22 for the Greens and 18 for the NDP and 27% for other parties. Well it looks like (at least for now) MacKay should win and humiliate May and Dion.
	07 04 24	polistudent 74.101.89.148
Peter may be able to hold this riding, it's a definite possibility. However, I would NOT count the NDP out of this race. It'll depend on the candidate of course. The NDP is doing well provincially, and I think they might get a good enough chunk of the liberal vote to get by McKay. May will be third for sure.
	07 04 22	Hagarty Dressler 70.54.2.168
The NDP are not running Alexis MacDonald. With a nobody for a candidate Elizabeth should be able to take atleast 10% from the NDP as she did in LNC. Lets toy with the numbers shall we? NDP to Green = 11-13% Liberal to Green 15-17% Conservative to Green 5-6% (10% +/-) giving the Greens anywhere from 31-36%. The NDP 21-23%. The Conservatives 35-36% and then theres that 10% of people who'll switch parties. If the Conservatives come into the election unpopular, Elizabeth has it. If they come in popular She doesn't. Chances are the conservatives will come in as a very unpopular party so i'll give this one to the Greens, FOR NOW.
	07 04 18	alberta liberal 70.73.6.111
Given that the NDP is the real threat to McKay in this riding, i just dont see how May wins it based on the absence of a liberal candidate.
	07 04 18	Stephen Sheppard 209.226.189.145
I would call Central Nova for Peter MacKay and the Conservatives. Simply put, I don't think that the Liberal supporters in this riding will be very happy with the Liberal Party and Stephane Dion's decision to not run a candidate in order to make a deal with the Green Party. This, coupled with MacKay's high profile as Foreign Affairs Minister, gives Central Nova to the Conservatives.
	07 04 16	Pat 142.167.208.34
I'm not sure I can believe in a prediction of the Greens winning Central Nova based on mass amnesia amongst Liberal supporters. I'm pretty sure the lack of a Liberal candidate on the ballot might remind them. It's not as though Liberals have no other choice. By the time some have moved their support to the NDP, some to the Conservatives and others are disillusioned enough to just stay home, I think the Greens will be lucky to pick up half of the Liberal votes. If anything, I'd say the Dion/May arrangement improves the chances of the NDP winning this riding (coupled with the steady increase of NDP popularity in Nova Scotia as a whole). However I can see any gains the NDP make from Liberals being neutralised by NDP members supporting the Greens. In all, I'd say tactical and protest voting on all sides will balance out and see Peter MacKay reelected.
	07 04 16	Cameron W 24.64.33.164
I'm with the general agreement over at DemocraticSpace.com See: http://democraticspace.com/blog/2007/04/can-elizabeth-may-win-central-nova/ Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party, could win in this riding. Mackay and the Harper government have not been doing a very good job with the East Coast in many people’s opinions, the federal spring budget was not popular, and we will likely see this affect the results in Central Nova.
	07 04 15	Ian 74.14.130.151
It will be close but as Elizabeth May's campaign grows and more disgruntled Liberals forget about Dion and May's deal, May could take this riding with a lead of up to 5%! Mackay is not doing a good enough job for Central Nova and I'm assuming that i'll be sticking with the Greens as I have in the two previous elections. :D
	07 04 14	DMD 71.17.148.162
Well, so far as I can see, Mr MacKay is the biggest winner out of recent events. Honestly, how do you think the 10 300 + Liberal voters of Central Nova, not to mention the drivers, scrutineers, doorknockers, donors, sign crews, lunch runners, etc. are going to react to being told 1) you can't win; and 2) your labours count for so little we aren't even going to allow you to be loyal Liberals in the next election? Instead, you should all, because the great leader says so, support the team that mustered fewer than 620 votes last time out, that couldn't convince anyone to doorknock, donate, cold call, GOTV, etc. Without even getting into the disservice this does to ALL Central Nova electors--whose ballot will now sport only one name that might be part of a government--I feel that such extraordinary disrespect will have powerful consequences that extend beyond Central Nova and the next election. An arrogant gesture by a man (M Dion, who was first appointed, unelected to Cabinet, after the near disaster of the 1995 referendum) who has never had to work on the ground for his own riding will, I predict, 1) lead to the biggest MacKay margin ever, with the plurality of the LPC vote going blue rather than Green; 2) produce a 3rd place finish for Ms May (and I wonder how her grassroots feel now ... but that big middle finger to the sincerely motivated rank and file is fodder for another posting altogether); 3) negatively impact LPC vote in other Nova Scotia ridings (e.g. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and West Nova, where Thibault was a near thing last time out); and 4) seriously compromise LPC efforts to find credible candidates and requisite volunteer pools in this riding in elections to come. To my mind, this was a monumental mistake and bespeaks a leader who just doesn't understand how elections work and whose labour wins them.
	07 04 14	R.D. 71.240.91.218
Well, the NDP needs only skim off a third of former Liberal supporters to squeak ahead of McKay, and I think that is very much achievable in light of May's lack of ties to the riding and the limited time she will be able to spend here as Green leader while also touring for the national campaign. Of course some former Liberals will go to McKay, too, and the NDP will have to hold its own vote from last time with a new candidate, but I am feeling pretty good about the NDP's chances here now.
	07 04 13	GM 70.73.142.214
As a long-time PCer who had many conventions and handshakes with Peter McKay, I really don't think he's in as much trouble as people think. First of all, the Greens are not as popular in Atlantic Canada as other sections of the country. Despite hate of the Federal Budget, this isn't Flaherty's riding - Peter is a moderate, a local, and has a fantastic campaign team that could win an election almost on their own. Finally, from all those years as a PC I know that 1 + 1 does not equal 2 - in short, not all of the Liberal and NDP votes will flock to May as GB posted earlier. Besides, let's make up a scenario where 70% of the Liberals from 2006 and 50% of the NDP flock to the Green Party. (impossible as it seems, this is only a scenario!) 70% of the 2006 Liberal votes are 7244 and 50% of the 2006 NDP votes are 6931. Combine the 1.5% that the Green Party got in 2006 and we're talking about 14,846 votes, or about 1000 votes more than Alexis McDonald got for the NDP in 2006. Note that in this instance you're STILL almost 2500 votes behind McKay! Besides, the least amount of votes that Peter has ever gotten in an election is 16,376; in fact, the least amount either Peter or his dad Elmer EVER got in this riding since 1971 is 15,359 (Elmer in 1980). The bottom line is that Peter McKay has the rock-hard support of 40%, and it would take something absolutely beyond staggering for a Conservative loss here now.
	07 04 13	24.85.137.49
There is nothing to indicate that Central Nova is fertile ground for a Green win. Even though the environment is the top issue in the country right now, it is not the only issue. Even if every single person in Central Nova who named the environment as the top issue voted Green, which obviously will not happen as the Greens are still clearly a minor protest party, May would not win. Many Liberals will migrate to the Conservatives and NDP, giving MacKay another easy win. Although some NDP voters will ultimately go to May, it seems irrational for a large number of Conservatives in an election where they may win a majority to switch to a fifth party candidate supported by the Liberal party.
	07 04 13	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
With the official announcement of Dion not running a candidate against May and endorsing her candidacy against MacKay, and with Jack Layton condemning the decision out in the open, but ‘conveniently’ deciding to pull the strong Alexis MacDonald out of the running for Central Nova in exchange for a much weaker, mostly unknown candidate, the common understanding, at this point, is that this is going to be a two-way race. With no Liberal candidate, and a nobody NDP candidate, it'll be very interesting to see where the votes go. The Liberal votes are being, basically, instructed to all go to May by Dion, which I would tend to think will happen, as those who don't want to vote for May are more likely to simply stay home than vote for MacKay. A few may vote for the NDP out of protest, but not many I would think. The NDP voters are being told by Jack, without any actual words, to open the door for May. Many will still vote for the NDP, but quite a few will see the benefit in May getting elected and vote for May. And as for the Conservatives, nearly all will do what they can to shore up support for Peter, but it's possible a few may vote for May. All signs point to a very close race, but with the Liberals openly supporting May and the NDP taking steps to reduce their strength in the riding, it looks promising for May to pull it off. To look at it from another perspective, if May doesn't win this seat, her days as leader are likely numbered and she will, likely, emerge next time around as a Liberal candidate somewhere.
	07 04 13	NovaSucka 24.87.89.170
May will campaign hard in the riding starting immediately and raise her profile dramatically. She'll get most of the Liberal and a good portion of the NDP votes. Keep in the mind that the Liberal voters in the last election will not go to McKay no matter how pissed they are about not having a candidate. I also think May will eventually hammer out a deal with the NDP. Sadly, McKay is done. Maybe he can get himself a job at Magna.....
	07 04 13	Justin 129.97.145.170
Why would the NDP strike a deal with the Greens? It made sense for the Liberals to not field a candidate. Not just because the Greens sit somewhere between the liberals and conservatives ideologically, but because the Liberals were likely to come in third (not second). The NDP, however, was the party that suffered from vote splitting in the last election. With the Liberals not fielding a candidate, this could easily become an NDP riding. Also, it is easy to see that this is the Liberal's attempting to greenwash their image across the country. I think the voters will make that clear in Central Nova. Finally, even if the Greens took all of the Liberals votes (unlikely), it still isn't even clear if May could beat the NDP candidate, and she has to do that to beat McKay. Instead, I think we will see disgruntled voters going to the NDP.
	07 04 13	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
I am going to move this back to TCTC with the Liberals not running a candidate. Although I still think it is very unlikely Elizabeth May will win here considering she has no local roots and the Greens only got 2%, with no Liberal candidate I could see enough going over to the NDP to potentially knock off MacKay. Likewise I could see MacKay picking up some Blue Liberal votes, although considering that the Tories aren't particularly popular in Nova Scotia, I would be surprised if he surpasses the 50% mark.
	07 04 12	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 67.71.58.20
So a deal between the liberals and the greens is hogwash you say? We're all aware now that this is not hogwash at all but a reality. What does this mean? It mean's MacKay is vulnerable. Not just that he has one less opponent to split the vote, but also with the budget fiasco that may well be lingering on voters minds come election day. We feel that MacKay is likely to keep his riding, but he will be in for a fight. Lets see if the NDP can come up with a deal with the Greens as well.
	07 04 12	PY 70.51.141.214
Well, the rumour has come true and the Liberals won't be running a candidate in Central Nova. Stéphane Dion's taking a calculated risk here and there's no guarantee that local Liberals will simply switch allegiances towards May and the Greens so easily. But if ever there was a place to park one's anti-MacKay vote, she might be it. Just how many of them she'll get will be crucial if she is to defeat him. MacKay would be well advised to take May seriously as his chief opponent because he doesn't have this one sewn up yet. TCTC.
	07 04 12	GB 134.117.187.38
With all due respect for Zack, I think his intelligence is much more reliable in regard to the Conservatives as it is for the Liberals. With the Liberals running no candidate and in effect endorsing the Green, and the NDP running a weaker candidate than the previous election, this race just got much more interesting. NDP votes will shift Green, as well as 60-70% of Liberal votes. I think it's unfortunate the ‘Gritty Greens’ choose to pick on Peter McKay so much, as I consider him a worthy MP and Cabinet Minister. The question is now whether Central Nova voters want to vote for a powerful cabinet minister or a powerful independent. I'm guessing Green by a hair, but this has just become a two-way race.
	07 04 12	Christian Conservative 74.114.172.34
Dion just announced that the Liberals WILL NOT run a candidate against Ms. May.I'm banking that this will help MacKay. Not all the Lib votes will go Green, and that means the Greens will have to bleed almost half of the NDP vote to even have a shot at this riding. Since they came so close to beating MacKay last time, you bet they're going to fight for this one. Plus, if even some of the Lib vote bleeds to MacKay... it's all over for May.
	07 04 12	Nick J Boragina 74.99.228.118
There is likely already someone who posted about this here, but the grits wont run against May http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070412/Liberals_May_070412/20070412?hub=TopStories&s_name= as I said earlier, this really wont make much of a difference. It's already a race between MacKay and May. Anyone who would vote for a Liberal over May only does so because they quite simply don’t want to vote for MacKay or May; or in other words, without a liberal candidate, these people will just stay home.
	07 04 09	Zack 24.89.219.148
With all due respect to that last post I think is very much off the mark. The N.D.P and Green Party leaders don’t speak, let alone make a deal to run weak candidates in ridings. The better the Green party does the worse off it is for the N.D.P so they are not going to assist the Green Party in any way. The N.D.P have picked a former teacher from Antigonish County that by all accounts will not be as strong as Alexis Macdonald was but still a worthy opponent. As a person who sits on Peter MacKay’s reelection Campaign I can tell you that the logic in the last post by is very much of the mark. Peter Mackay is going to win because he is working hard to get re-elected, the Green party is not a factor here and is being made out to be much stronger in this area then she really is. It is also worthy to note the Liberals in Central Nova plan to run a Candidate, so all this talk about a deal is just hogwash. The liberals in the last two elections have done very badly so the talk that the liberals will just vote Green is untrue, the people that voted liberal the last two elections are the diehards that will only vote liberal and nothing else, so there wont be much movement from the Liberals to the Green party. Also may I point out that the Green Party gat 1.5 percent of the Vote in Central Nova the last election, the media seems to always forget to mention that when they are talking about Ms. May giving Peter Mackay a run for his money.
	07 04 07	Nick J Boragina 74.12.71.10
what I'm hearing from the higher-up's in the conservative party (I am a party member) is that the ?plan? is for the Greens to run their leader, while both the NDP and Liberals run nobody candidates. The idea is to knock off MacKay (rumour is it was Dion's idea) to damage the moderate wing of the Conservative Party. Ideally, the voters will line up, MacKay VS May, with the Liberals and NDP not posing any real threat. The problem with the plan is that the Conservative have taken a moderate governing stance, and many of the voters would be more willing to choose a government cabinet minister over an opposition party leader. This one will be close. The logic of May running here is this: MacKay is a giant. Running against a nobody means that all other parties will run serious candidates, since the other person is just a nodoby. Running against a giant means that people will desire to line up behind the giant, and behind his main opponent. Just look at the Joe Clark riding win in the year 2000 to see what I mean.
	07 04 03	Ryan N 216.211.62.254
The Green Party leader chose one of the WORST possible ridings anywhere across the country! She's going to split the left Liberal/NDP vote, thus allowing the Conservatives to win up the middle. No contest whatsoever!
	07 03 30	Joe J. 209.29.182.225
Greens are dreaming. May's choice to run in this riding is not designed to win. It's designed to peel away enough votes from the NDP to prevent them from taking the riding. May couldn't run against a Liberal MP and keep her buddy Stephane Dion on side. So she let the Liberals talk her into a riding that the NDP stood to make gains in. I suspect the NDP will still put up a good fight and come a strong second (May will come third), but MacKay is safe - thanks to bad deal making by May.
	07 03 30	CGD 142.150.17.17
Talk of a Liberal-Green deal is interesting. Perhaps the Liberals will not field a candidate here, allowing May to take a legitimate run at beating Mackay. Even without such a deal, May has a fighting chance.
	07 03 29	Geoff C. 74.101.88.186
As much as I'd love to see Elizabeth May win this (not to mention see MacKay lose...), I don't think it has much of a hope. Against a weaker candidate in a different riding, perhaps, but I just can't see MacKay losing. The battle here will be for second place.
	07 03 28	King of Kensington 74.98.171.205
The Greens have fared poorly in this riding and in Atlantic Canada generally. No matter what nice things Dion says about Elizabeth May and no matter how low profile their candidate is here, plenty of people will vote Liberal anyway. Peter Mackay will easily be reelected.
	07 03 27	Nick J Boragina 74.99.228.118
I'm going to have to put this one down as too close to call. MacKay should be able to take it, but with the greens splitting the vote, you never know. Frankly, a Liberal or NDP win is not outside of the realm of possibility. I really can’t see May winning for the greens, even though she is leader, but that still is also possible. This is going to be a riding to watch, my brain tells me it's going to be a nail biter, but my gut says Tory.
	07 03 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.68.252
So much for EMay's reputed political savvy.... She'd have been better off running in London North Center where she got considerable exposure, and did extremely well. It would have demonstrated her commitment to the community, but instead she flew east... With Dion's flagging fortunes, London may have borne fruit for her this time. But instead she goes and challeneges the foreign minister. Mark up another notch for the MacKay dynasty.
	07 03 25	Austin 130.15.200.196
Mackay is a very well known MP both locally and federally, probably would have been one of the safest conservative seats in the country. However, May is a strong candidate and with the amount of media attention I think she will get this riding may turn green
	07 03 25	JG 142.177.231.119
Elizabeth May has no roots in the riding and the Green Party in Nova Scotia is a shell with almost no organization. In 2006, the Greens won a mere 1.6 percent of the vote, and will be starting effectively from scratch. While not to detract from former NDP candidate Alexis MacDonald's strengths, the provincial NDP is very strong in this area and holds two of the five provincial seats with significant strength in the others. With the federal budget being called a betrayal of N.S. in the newspapers, MacKay will be vulnerable, and the party best positioned to take him out is the NDP. At most, May act as a spoiler, but even she absorbs much of the Liberal support, that won't give her anything better than third place.
	07 03 25	MichaelM 142.167.232.41
Peter MacKay is not well liked in his riding these days, and this should allow for Elizabeth May to emerge as the first Green MP in Canada. While I don't support the Greens, Peter is headed for a crushing defeat as all the forces align against him this election. My best guess: May 40%, MacKay 35%, NDP 15%, Liberal 10%.
	07 03 25	Ancastarian 24.226.61.228
Mackay should hold on. In the past the NDP has made inroads into his support, but with their numbers low, he should be alright. Elizabeth May, Green party leader also plans to run here. While she will try to insinuate that Mackay has forgotten Atlantic Canada, this message will fall onto deaf ears. Mackay is Harper's number two, high-profile, and there is now way the opposition leader of the 5th party can offer more to the people of this riding than he can. While May might make it close, Mackay should hold on, if only be a few thousand votes.
	07 03 24	GM 68.144.68.132
If Elizabeth May was smart, she would have run in Halifax, where social activism runs higher and the Green Party candidate can pull in 2000 votes with a nobody important running. As it goes, the protest vote was in 2006 and Peter McKay survived it. With 40% of the vote, Peter McKay will win again.
	07 03 24	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
This is not a Green Party type riding at all. If Peter MacKay were to be taken down, it would be the Liberals or NDP and with the Greens now running here, we've just got a three way split so as much as the recent budget may very well hurt MacKay's chances here, he should win due to the split on the left.
	07 03 24	Zack 142.68.86.243
As a person who lives in this riding I can say with some confidence that this riding is a lock for Peter Mackay. With Word that Alexis MacDonald is not running makes it even easier for Peter Mackay to be re-elected. Much of the N.D.P vote in the last election in Central Nova was not N.D.P Voters but was attracted to Alexis as she was a very creditable candidate and now those votes are up for grabs for all parties in the riding. Elizabeth May has never worked nor lived in this riding. She has no ties to this area and the people are not going to vote for a person that does not have Central Nova roots. Elizabeth May in the last number of days has attacked the Industries in Pictou County including Trenton Works, The Trenton Power Generating Facility, Neenah Paper and Maritime Steel. If Elizabeth May was serious about getting elected she would stand up for thousands of hard working people that are employed directly or indirectly at those Industries. In one foul swoop she has announced that she wants to shut down the Industries in Pictou County leaving thousands without work, this in itself has taken her out of any sort of position to threaten Peter Mackay in an election. The liberals in fact have announced they are going to run a candidate in the election. All the talk about running a shadow campaign and helping Elizabeth May out will only boost Peter MacKay’s vote total if that turns out to be the case, if it looks like the liberals are helping the green party or the N.D.P party in the election Peter Mackay will benefit because tagging up to beat someone is not going to wash with the people of Central Nova. With Peter Mackay now being a Cabinet Minister, now being on the side of a popular government that is seen doing good things, this in it self will boost Peters vote total on Election Day. Since becoming a Cabinet Minister Peter has been able to bring a lot of money to this riding and the people of this riding are taking notice. It is also worthy to note Peters re-election campaign in 2006 was his weakest organized campaign to date. I think Peter now realizes that and watch out for an organized disciplined proactive re- election campaign when the writ is dropped. I believe that on election day in Central Nova , Peter Mackay will not only be re-elected but with a much larger Victory Margin the last 2 election campaigns and Elizabeth May will only be a foot note .
	07 03 24	L. Nino 142.177.79.222
Alexis MacDonald will not be running for the NDP. Since the last two elections proved that the anti-MacKay vote wants to coalesce under one candidate, and since the Liberals are dragging their feet, it seems very likely that Elizabeth May can now take this. If the Liberals run David Orchard, as is rumoured, then it's a lock, since the voters here will understand this as a signal to take down MacKay.
	07 03 23	G. Kennedy (not that one) 65.95.109.168
Elizabeth May is a fine person and her reasons for running here are principled indeed. But let's be honest - MacKay is a giant in this riding and the Liberals and NDP will be taking their fair share of the vote to prevent him from losing to anyone.
	07 03 20	JFBreton 132.204.214.153
J'aimerais croire à une victoire des Verts et de son chef ici, mais le vote vert ne fera que diviser le vote de gauche. J'opte plutôt pour une victoire des Conservateurs.
	07 03 20	L. Nino 142.177.109.80
The Liberals have announced that they will not pull their candidate, and will nominate in this riding. The Liberals will lose here no matter what and this is the biggest strategic error Stephane Dion has ever made. If they nominate anyone other than David Orchard (who IS a Liberal and has NO chance of winning in Saskatoon) they will lose, and will spoil Alexis MacDonald's shot at this riding (she came second twice). Elizabeth May also has no chance in a four-way race but in a three-way race between herself and a weak Liberal and MacKay, with the NDP dropping out (hah! they are too stupid to do that no matter how much they could gain) she could win. Or with herself and Orchard and MacDonald, she could come second and make sure MacKay is humiliated (similar to her results in London North).
	07 03 19	Brian Appel 69.70.112.147
Call me crazy, but I can see May taking this riding. We all know MacKay is running again, and the NDP are determined to field a candidate in the riding, but Dion is still considering whether to do so, or to put Liberal support in the riding toward getting May elected. I'm not a Green supporter, but I do believe they have a role to play in Canadian politics and it's time they had a seat. Yeah, it might have been better for May to seek a seat that would be more winnable for her, but she's a smart lady and if SHE thinks that she can beat Peter MacKay, then I think she can too.