Prediction Changed
11:46 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Cape Breton-Canso
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Rodger Cuzner

2006 Result:
Rodger Cuzner **
21424
Kenzie MacNeil
9740
Hector Morrison
8111
Rob Hines
1006

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 04 03 Stevo
74.14.49.219
Indeed, touching on A.S.'s comments, Cape Breton, especially outside Sydney, is the kind of place where the Tories *should* be doing well. The down-to-earth voters here almost certainly have far more in common with Conservative-voting people (not that they are a monolith, but on average) in much of the rest of the country than they do with the Liberal latte-drinkers in Toronto and Vancouver. But alas, traditions die hard in the East, and the Tory brand is worth very little here. Even provincially, former Tory Premier John Hamm was once accused of stoking anti-CB feelings in order to win more votes in the mainland. The accusation was probably unfair, but it goes to show the level of mistrust Cape Bretoners have for Conservatives.
08 02 16 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Between '04 and '06, Cuzner stood still, while CPC and NDP flipped places. And despite its being Cape Breton and memories of '97's Dingwall-defeat shocker, I wouldn't say CB-C is a ‘NDP only real threat’ sort of place, certainly not in the way Sydney-Victoria is--in the end, it's too rural, and it's even got the most Tory-leaning parts of the Sydney conurbation. And of course, it's got the Fiddlin' Premier. But given Harper's reputation around these parts, maybe NDP might as well be the only real threat at this point--if there was a threat at all, that is. And as '97 occurred when Alexa was NDP leader, I guess it means that CB-C would only swing Tory if Peter MacKay were federal leader...
08 02 11 Mad Caper
142.68.187.86
This riding is going to be a lot closer this time around with slate of Candidates that have been put forward. The Tories have had their man in the field for some time now and he seems to have some credibility although his connection to Peter MacKay may do him more harm than good, but, he will cut into Cuzners' vote on the mainland at the very least. The Green Party has also had their candidate nominated for some time also and although he is a relative unknown in most of the riding he will benefit to some degree from the fact that he has his leader running in the next riding and that extra vote will come at the expense of all three parties, although based on the results of the last election, the Liberals will lose the most followed by the Tories and then the N.D.P. purely on the fact that their vote was not all that great in the Western part of the riding in the last election. The N.D.P.have yet to nominate a candidate, but, have a possible candidate in the person of a Mr. Mark MacNeill from the Mabou area of the riding who is also from the West side of the riding, but, from reading articles that he has written in the Cape Breton Post and other print media that have carried his articles, it is obvious that this gentleman has ties in many areas of the riding, most notably Glace Bay, East Bay, Port Morien and Arichat. These connections will not hurt Mr. MacNeill should he be the person who is nominated for the N.D.P.. When you add to this the fact that the Liberal incumbent Mr. Roger Cuzner has been publicly attacking Mr.MacNeill in the Print Media and over the Radio their is obviously some concern in the Cuzner camp about Mr. MacNeill who is seen by the Liberals as their clear opposition to being re-elected. These pre-emptive strikes by Mr. Cuzner are totally out of character for a man who in the past has totally ignored his political rivals, but, due to the fact that he is no longer a member of the governing party, may be feeling a little bit unsure of exactly where the electorate in this particular riding are standing on his re-electability this time around. Based on these issues i think that this riding may be ripe for an upset. We will have to wait and see what the electorate has to say for the final verdict.
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
This is the safest Liberal riding in the province, both historically and recently. The only real threat would not come from the Greens, or the Tories, but from the NDP. Seeing as they finished third here last time, it shows how little challenge there really is to the sitting MP. Even if the Liberals somehow lost all but one Nova Scotia seat, they would still hold on here. Liberal Lock.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
This is a very safe Liberal riding. Even if Elizabeth May ran here, Roger Cuzner would still win.
07 03 25 Rob C
64.230.90.193
With May now running on the mainland (after being rumoured to run in this riding), Cuzner is a lock. Several things point to this including his ability to keep his profile up while in opposition, what he delivered for the riding over the years and the fact that he is a popular former recreation coordinator. He has won big in the past...no reason to think otherwise.
07 03 25 Brian Appel
69.70.112.147
It's Cape Breton, which is the only place, federally and provincially, that the Liberals are guaranteed to do well in Nova Scotia. The Rodney MacDonald factor may hand a few votes to Harper's candidate, but this riding is going nowhere but Liberal in the next election.



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