08 04 16	R.O. 66.186.79.95
Not so sure about the liberals picking this one up. as mp is also high profile cabinet minister for fisheries and oceans. Meaning he gets to deal with lots of issues of importance to the locals here. One being the recent seal hunt and the controversy surrounding it. Think the liberals being in opposition are going to have a hard time demonstrating how an opposition mp could do more than he is doing and actually deliver results. Although its still a competitive area in the sense.
	08 02 06	A. Lewis 142.177.99.116
Williams will get what he wants. Hearn is a tough nut, yes, but he was implicated in re-opening the fishery too early and that backfired badly: This keeps happening. In the words of one career fisherman, they let everyone come to Placentia Bay and fish it back to nothing, probably slowing the re-emergence of the Atlantic Cod by a decade. It's a lot harder to come back from nothing than from one bay. The stamp fishery doesn't look like such a good deal when there's oilmen crawling all over the island. Hearn had Williams strongly on his side last time. Now for him and the other Conservatives on the island, there's no organization other than his own personal riding association to lean on. Williams' media presence and hatred of Harper will come down hardest on Harper's NL Cabinet Minister. If Williams can't oust Hearn, he is discredited and humilated. With Williams on their side, federal Liberals will be out for the kill. NDPers should recognize the value of becoming the only federal opposition party to the Liberals once there's no Reformative Party scum left on the rock, but they may feel that they can't give up in St. John's against a cabinet minister. Add in that Siobhan Coady is running again and knows how to use oh say Facebook, and that the Liberals have much better backroom players in their camp than they did in 2006, not to mention having William's team on them, and this should be Hearn's end.
	07 11 29	binriso 156.34.226.67
That reasonable NDP 2nd place was that the NDP came 1% away from winning about 350 votes. Pretty damn close second. Obviously they had a very strong candidate Greg Malone but so did the PCs with ex Newfoundland MHA Loyola Hearn. Funnily enough the NDP were the closest to beating John Crosbie (about 3000 votes in a 1977 by election) in Saint Johns West, which is about 95% of this riding now. Every other time, Crosbie won by anywhere from 7000-25000. An NDP prediction isnt far-fetched one bit. Saint Johns 2 ridings might be the only relatively close three way races in the Atlantic, although South Shore in NS is another possibility for that too. Probably a Liberal advantage just because they are always in 2nd place in this riding and theres much less ground for them to make up to win if the seat changes hands.
	07 11 22	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.52.61.217
To wade in on Stervo's and A.S.'s comments; an NDP win in this riding is not completely out in left field (no pun intended). If we're not mistaken, the NDP came in a reasonable second place in the byelection that brought Loyola Hearn to Federal politics in early 2000. Still, an NDP win here is a real long shot in our opinion. Then again, so was an NDP win in Outremont...
	07 11 20	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Ah, Stevo, but first of all, re the NDP in Newfoundland, ‘zero electoral success’ doesn't account for the victories (however byelection-spurred) of Fonse Faour or Jack Harris, or for that matter Greg Malone's very strong second in Loyola Hearn's own byelected Ottawa debut--sure, that may not make the province a natural stronghold, but it's certainly more than zero. Secondly, Danny Williams doesn't figure in any of those urban centres you list (and anyway, even in said centres for the most part, Tory support gets shakier--at least, relatively speaking--the closer to the core that you get). And thirdly, my conclusion is regarding the claim of this winding up as the *only* Tory seat in Newfoundland--which'd depend *very* heavily upon said ‘Tory organizers working their butts off to keep Hearn alive’. Sure, if Hearn were the only Tory incumbent running (or if, paradoxically, Liberal and NDP split the opposition); but assuming that Fabian Manning runs again, I'd still give a non-urban-centre maverick like him a better (or at least an even) chance of sole-survivordom. And as for voter attention ultimately being displaced from whatever Danny's been fuming about; well yes, that negates my point, but then why would I or anybody be making it? (Besides, I *did* say ‘if’.)
	07 11 17	Stevo 70.53.77.49
Uhh, right A.S. - that's such a logical conclusion, of course it doesn't matter that the NDP has zero history of any electoral success in Newfoundland, right? I think you need to detach yourself from the whole urban=anti-Tory mantra, since it would come as a quite a surprise to the Conservative-voting folks living in the *very* urban centres such as Calgary, Edmonton, Quebec City, Saskatoon, Ottawa and...yes, St. John's. This one is too close to call and Tory organizers will work their butts off to keep Hearn alive. The longer the among of time before an election, the more displaced voter attention will be from the oil royalties dispute.
	07 10 29	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.13.75.161
We're going to agree with Nick that this is the most likely CPC hold in the province. Where we disagree is that we do not think it is a sure-fire thing. We say a Conservative edge but we'll reserve judgement until an actual election call.
	07 10 29	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Why would this be the only Tory seat remaining in Newfoundland? Take note: even with his profile, Loyola Hearn hasn't won by terribly impressive margins. And beyond that, thanks to the most recent redistribution it's the most ‘urban’ seat in Newfoundland by far. Which means that if thanks to Danny Williams dis-endorsing the federal Tories it winds up being the only non-Liberal seat in Newfoundland, it'd more likely be *NDP* than CPC...
	07 09 18	binriso 156.34.212.190
Heres an interesting possibility and theres honestly a chance for it to occur: Federal Liberals shut out the CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador. Provincial Liberals get shut out by the PC's and Danny Williams. Id have to think the Federal Liberal organizers in Newfoundland will devote quite a bit of attention to these 3 ridings, since the other 4 are pretty much in the bag now. Gonna be close races across the Avalon.
	07 09 16	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
I have not changed my prediction regardless of the polls showing the Tories at 17%. Remember that in 2003 there was a post-merger poll with the party at 13% nationally. The only poll that counts is election day. Even with a huge drop, the Tories should still manage to hold on to at least one seat – and if they do, this will be that seat. It would take Danny Williams on the hustings with Stephane Dion in this riding to turn it.
	07 06 12	RZ 24.203.133.78
The fallout from the budget debacle and Danny Williams' promise to campaign against the Tories will be a deciding factor here. A poll conducted for NTV by Telelink of more than 500 people in this riding found that only 11 per cent say they would vote for Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn, while 48 per cent would not.
	07 06 12	Phil D. 64.230.101.165
Don't ignore the NDP; the poll that gave the Tories 17% gave the Liberals 53% and the NDP 27%. Grit support is still double the NDP's but their support is likely even more concentrated is the rural ridings, where Mont-Royal size margins (80%) have already occurred. St. John's is a little stronger for both the Tories and the NDP. I predict three-way races in both St. John's seats with the Tories at a disadvantage.
	07 06 10	binriso 156.34.233.62
Really i think this is the only one the Conservatives can win. That said they can lose here too pretty easily. Hearn has not really put up the big wins except in 2000 election and he almost lost the byelection before that. TCTC
	07 06 09	JC 207.188.64.230
Party is over here folks, The Conservatives have hit rock bottom with recent polling news that only 17% (No, that is not a typo) would support the party in the next election, This spells total wipeout for the Conservatives in this province.
	07 07 20	RC 134.153.210.140
This one is not safe either. While it has gone conservative in every election since 1993, and every election before that, the boundary shift changes things. Last time, Hearn only held on through a relatively weak Liberal candidate and a pretty good NDP one. However, the boundary shift a few years back moved all those conservative votes from the southern shore over (where they belong) with Avalon and made this an urban/suburban riding. Greg Malone would have won this riding for the NDP in a 2000 by-election were the boundaries what they are now. In Newfoundland right now, at least at the federal level there are no safe conservative seats. Provincially, that's another story.
	07 03 29	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
This riding is generally a safe conservative seat and normally it shouldn't even by in play, but with the budget shafting Newfoundland & Labrador and Danny Williams promising to campaign against the Tories, this could potentially go Liberal. Loyola Hearn may also face some flack for not speaking out against the shaft on Newfoundland & Labrador. It will be tough for the Liberals to win this one, but it is doable. More importantly they will probably get a stronger candidate now than they would have before the budget.
	07 03 29	JC 207.188.88.126
Danny Williams ranting over the Conservatives broken promise regarding the Equalization formula is going to turn Newfoundland and Labrador completely red.
	07 03 27	Nick J Boragina 74.99.228.118
This is one of the safest tory wirings in the province, and with Hearn the fisheries minister, and with him able to take this riding again and again as just as MP, I dont think it's any question as to who will win here.