Prediction Changed
09:03 11/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

St. John's South-Mount Pearl
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Butler, Terry Christopher
Newfoundland and Labrador First
Byrne, Greg
New Democratic
Cleary, Ryan
Coady, Siobhan
Warren, Ted
Wiseman, Merv

Hon. Loyola Hearn

2006 Result:
Loyola Hearn **
Siobhan Coady
Peg Norman
Barry Crozier

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 binriso
Liberals probably win based on numbers, but the NDP could win here too based on the fact they did well last time and St Johns is where the Provincial PC and NDP parties are the strongest(ie very good for ABC campaign), and I think the NDP leader has her seat here?(I may be wrong about that). CPC are probably screwed and will be lucky to get above 3rd.
08 10 04 DK
This riding is too close to call. The local poll released for this riding this week showed Cleary and Coady separated by little more than the poll's statistical margin of error.
The Liberals don't have this sewn up at all. With Jack Harris sailing along in the other St. John's riding, you can expect local New Dems and Jack Layton to boost Cleary's campaign (Layton is here again tomorrow - Sun. 5th).
08 09 22 Labradorian in Newfoundland
This might be a closer race then many realize. Conservative support has dropped dramatically (somewhat due to the ABC effect) and much of this support may not want to vote for Coady. Much of this support may bleed to the NDP as and with popular Jack Harris in the adjacent riding, a spillover effect could also boosten the NDP here.
08 09 19 RC
O. B. and Marco Ricci: You both clearly know nothing about Newfoundland. See my avalon post for more on the polling, but the conservative drop is widespread, while the rises in support for the other parties is concentrated in places, and it's only on the Avalon peninsula that they really had support to lose. Oh, and it's not in the 'Maritimes' which includes only NS, NB and PEI.
Newfoundlanders vote overwhelmingly for the person. Right now, anyone who runs for the Tories will be tarred with the 'Harper's Man' brush (with the possible exception of the candidate next door in St.J-E. That's a hard label to run against down here. Siobhan Coady is well liked, though not by me, and Ryan Cleary is well known. They'll split the vote, but the conservatives won't crack 20%, making them irrelevant to any split.
08 09 18 Mutt
The last election went to the conservatives who had a very popular candidate in opposition. Given Mr.Hearn's and the Harper governments lack of respect for this province and that Mr Hearn now had a track record as a ruling party that was not received well locally even he, despite saying he would defend his actions with the electorate, understands he would probably face a losing campaign and did the honorable thing and decided not to run.
Vote splitting might be an issue but I believe the Liberals will take this seat.
08 09 17 Wayne M.
No, this seat was won by a 4300 vote margin by a long-time incumbent MP who is now the Minister of Fisheries. Big difference between him and the guy the Conservatives are now running. There is NO way that the Conservatives will this time get anywhere near the numbers they got in the last election when Hearn was running. Keep dreaming...
08 09 17 O. B. Won
This seat was won by a 4,300+ vote margin by the Conservatives in 2006. Recent polls show an 11% swing against the federal Tories in Newfoundland. This would normally bode well for the Liberals, but due to the vote splitting happening between three left-wing parties, the Liberals are only picking up a third of this 11% swing. For the Liberals to win this seat, they need 100% of an additional 8% swing against the Conservatives ... this, on top of the already 11% swing for a total swing against the Tories of 19% -- and this just ain't gonna happen. As such, the Conservatives will retain this seat.
08 09 16 Wayne M.
L.O.: Did you actually read the link you posted? It clearly states that only 14 percent of the people who are aware of the ABC campaign are going to vote for the Conservatives...
It should also be noted that just because people say they won't be influenced by the ABC campaign doesn't mean that they're at all more likely to support the Conservatives. Many Newfoundlanders have said that they won't be influenced by the ABC campaign because they've LONG ago decided against voting for the Conservatives themselves. I agree with what you said about Coady though, I don't know how the Liberals in Nfld. could possibly sell voters here on the Green Shift...
Either way, I don't think this riding will go to the Cons., I think the N.D.P. candidate is more notable than the Liberal and Conservative candidates and that with the desire for change in metro St. John's and the high visibility of Jack Harris next door, this could be a steal for the N.D.P.
08 09 16 L.O.
TOO CLOSE! NTV Telelink poll shows that Most NLers are NOT moved by the ‘ABC’ command. ( So scratch out most of the assumed traction for the Liberals (only other party with remote shot of winning this one). Also, Tories have a notable candidate in Agriculture Association president Merv Wiseman. Loyola Hearn's retirement makes this one a tougher one to call, but any anti-Tory sentiment may still end up split among the NDP and the Liberals. Also, Siobhan Coady, the Liberal candidate, seems to be campaigning against her own party's Green Shift plan in a way that probably doesn't instill confidence in voters in NL . . . saying that NLers ‘don't understand’ the plan and that she wants it altered etc . . . ( This can't be good for the campaign there.
08 09 16 Marco Ricci
I notice there are several NDP predictions here. It's important to remember that just because the NDP have a high-profile candidate in the area does not necessarily guarantee a victory. In 2004 a lot of people predicted that Des McGrath of the NDP would win in Random Burin St Georges and he finished well back of 1st place:
At the moment the NDP is running 3rd in the Maritimes so the Liberals probably have the advantage over the NDP in NFLD:
It may not be a good idea for the Liberals and the NDP to both run high-profile candidates - vote-splitting could allow the Conservative to prevail.
However, I notice that just as with West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, Election Prediction has already made a prediction.
08 09 12 ducey
Siobhan Coady after trying the past 2 elections to win finally gets the win here. Though this is the Conservatives best chance at retaining one of the St.John's seats.
08 09 12 Wayne M.
I agree with R.D. - I think the N.D.P. actually has a strong chance of taking this one. With the immensely popular Jack Harris running for the N.D.P. in the riding next door, and the portrayal of the Liberals as a sinking ship throughout the campaign so far, I think the N.D.P. have a good chance here. Note that in the last election the N.D.P. candidate came within around 10 percent of the number of votes Ms. Coady was able to garner, and this time the N.D.P. candidate has a much higher profile than the last one. Paint this riding and St. John's East orange.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Too close to call, any of the three main parties can pick this up, though I doubt it will be the Conservatives. The NDP has a star candidate, but a star who will be a handfull.
08 09 11 Nick J Boragina
In my last submission, I said that ‘It would take Danny Williams on the hustings with Stephane Dion (in order for the liberals to win here)’ Well, that's pretty much what we are having in this election - ergo, Liberal win.
08 09 11 R.D.
Not so fast with the Liberal prediction. Without Hearn, I do see this as a Conservative loss. But this federal seat includes the provincial NDP leader's riding, and provincially the NDP has been outpolling the Liberals in the St. John's Metro area since the last election. While Williams is openly saying just ?anyone but conservative? I think it is also more in his interest to help the NDP than the Liberals, since despite their gains in metro St. John's their provincial counterparts still pose less of a risk to him province-wide. Paint both St. John's ridings orange after this election.
08 09 10 Stevo
Yup, no doubt, the resignation of Loyola Hearn has effectively gift-wrapped this seat for the Liberals. One of the very few pick-ups the Liberals will experience nationwide.
08 09 10 binriso
Cleary seems like an idiot who badmouthed his party in the past, a lot, which makes no sense why hes running for them. He might even lose votes this time around since some of the committed NDPers dont really like him. Since the CPC are going down in Newfoundland, it seems this one goes Liberal by default.
08 09 10 Brian A
People talk about how Coady is a two-time loser. Well, she's always been real close, held off only by a strong Conservative candidate. Say goodbye to Loyola Hearn, folks. Now the riding is wide open and all those voters who voted for Hearn, plus those same voters who are being told by the Premier to vote for ABC, and we see a Liberal pick-up. Danny Williams must be happy, since it looks like N&L is going to turn into a Conservative wasteland thanks to his efforts.
08 09 05 RC
This is clearly too close to call. Siobhan Coady is a two time loser already. If, as local media are reporting, Ryan Cleary runs for the NDP, and Jack Harris runs in the next riding, you could see the whole metro area go for the NDP. The conservatives might not even be able to field candidates, let alone attract voters, given the current climate. If you didn't vote for Coady before, I don't think you would now, and Cleary will play much better in Mt. Pearl/Paradise/Cowan Heights than Peg Norman ever could.
08 09 04 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
Hmm...Loyola has decided to call it quits. I'm not ready to speculate on whether or not he fears the wrath of Danny. What I will speculate on is who will win in his absence. Had he chosen to run again, I'd have given a slight nod to him. However I'm fairly certain that Siobhan will take it. She has the name recognition, the Liberals have the lead in Atlantic Canada (a big lead) and there is still the ABC policy from the premier. Interesting...could Fabian Manning be the NFLD & Lab cab-min in a future Harper government by default?
08 09 03 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
Now that Loyola Hearn's decided to retire in order to avoid the wrath of Danny, I predict a slight Liberal win by Siobhan Coady in the next election.
08 08 14 Oliver Dingwell
Strong candidates for all three major parties. However the Liberal's currently have the cutting edge according to the latest polls.
08 04 16 R.O.
Not so sure about the liberals picking this one up. as mp is also high profile cabinet minister for fisheries and oceans. Meaning he gets to deal with lots of issues of importance to the locals here. One being the recent seal hunt and the controversy surrounding it. Think the liberals being in opposition are going to have a hard time demonstrating how an opposition mp could do more than he is doing and actually deliver results. Although its still a competitive area in the sense.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
Williams will get what he wants. Hearn is a tough nut, yes, but he was implicated in re-opening the fishery too early and that backfired badly: This keeps happening. In the words of one career fisherman, they let everyone come to Placentia Bay and fish it back to nothing, probably slowing the re-emergence of the Atlantic Cod by a decade. It's a lot harder to come back from nothing than from one bay. The stamp fishery doesn't look like such a good deal when there's oilmen crawling all over the island.
Hearn had Williams strongly on his side last time. Now for him and the other Conservatives on the island, there's no organization other than his own personal riding association to lean on. Williams' media presence and hatred of Harper will come down hardest on Harper's NL Cabinet Minister. If Williams can't oust Hearn, he is discredited and humilated.
With Williams on their side, federal Liberals will be out for the kill. NDPers should recognize the value of becoming the only federal opposition party to the Liberals once there's no Reformative Party scum left on the rock, but they may feel that they can't give up in St. John's against a cabinet minister.
Add in that Siobhan Coady is running again and knows how to use oh say Facebook, and that the Liberals have much better backroom players in their camp than they did in 2006, not to mention having William's team on them, and this should be Hearn's end.
07 11 29 binriso
That reasonable NDP 2nd place was that the NDP came 1% away from winning about 350 votes. Pretty damn close second. Obviously they had a very strong candidate Greg Malone but so did the PCs with ex Newfoundland MHA Loyola Hearn. Funnily enough the NDP were the closest to beating John Crosbie (about 3000 votes in a 1977 by election) in Saint Johns West, which is about 95% of this riding now. Every other time, Crosbie won by anywhere from 7000-25000. An NDP prediction isnt far-fetched one bit. Saint Johns 2 ridings might be the only relatively close three way races in the Atlantic, although South Shore in NS is another possibility for that too. Probably a Liberal advantage just because they are always in 2nd place in this riding and theres much less ground for them to make up to win if the seat changes hands.
07 11 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
To wade in on Stervo's and A.S.'s comments; an NDP win in this riding is not completely out in left field (no pun intended). If we're not mistaken, the NDP came in a reasonable second place in the byelection that brought Loyola Hearn to Federal politics in early 2000. Still, an NDP win here is a real long shot in our opinion. Then again, so was an NDP win in Outremont...
07 11 20 A.S.
Ah, Stevo, but first of all, re the NDP in Newfoundland, ‘zero electoral success’ doesn't account for the victories (however byelection-spurred) of Fonse Faour or Jack Harris, or for that matter Greg Malone's very strong second in Loyola Hearn's own byelected Ottawa debut--sure, that may not make the province a natural stronghold, but it's certainly more than zero. Secondly, Danny Williams doesn't figure in any of those urban centres you list (and anyway, even in said centres for the most part, Tory support gets shakier--at least, relatively speaking--the closer to the core that you get). And thirdly, my conclusion is regarding the claim of this winding up as the *only* Tory seat in Newfoundland--which'd depend *very* heavily upon said ‘Tory organizers working their butts off to keep Hearn alive’. Sure, if Hearn were the only Tory incumbent running (or if, paradoxically, Liberal and NDP split the opposition); but assuming that Fabian Manning runs again, I'd still give a non-urban-centre maverick like him a better (or at least an even) chance of sole-survivordom. And as for voter attention ultimately being displaced from whatever Danny's been fuming about; well yes, that negates my point, but then why would I or anybody be making it? (Besides, I *did* say ‘if’.)
07 11 17 Stevo
Uhh, right A.S. - that's such a logical conclusion, of course it doesn't matter that the NDP has zero history of any electoral success in Newfoundland, right? I think you need to detach yourself from the whole urban=anti-Tory mantra, since it would come as a quite a surprise to the Conservative-voting folks living in the *very* urban centres such as Calgary, Edmonton, Quebec City, Saskatoon, Ottawa and...yes, St. John's. This one is too close to call and Tory organizers will work their butts off to keep Hearn alive. The longer the among of time before an election, the more displaced voter attention will be from the oil royalties dispute.
07 10 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're going to agree with Nick that this is the most likely CPC hold in the province. Where we disagree is that we do not think it is a sure-fire thing. We say a Conservative edge but we'll reserve judgement until an actual election call.
07 10 29 A.S.
Why would this be the only Tory seat remaining in Newfoundland? Take note: even with his profile, Loyola Hearn hasn't won by terribly impressive margins. And beyond that, thanks to the most recent redistribution it's the most ‘urban’ seat in Newfoundland by far. Which means that if thanks to Danny Williams dis-endorsing the federal Tories it winds up being the only non-Liberal seat in Newfoundland, it'd more likely be *NDP* than CPC...
07 09 18 binriso
Heres an interesting possibility and theres honestly a chance for it to occur:
Federal Liberals shut out the CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Provincial Liberals get shut out by the PC's and Danny Williams.
Id have to think the Federal Liberal organizers in Newfoundland will devote quite a bit of attention to these 3 ridings, since the other 4 are pretty much in the bag now. Gonna be close races across the Avalon.
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
I have not changed my prediction regardless of the polls showing the Tories at 17%. Remember that in 2003 there was a post-merger poll with the party at 13% nationally. The only poll that counts is election day. Even with a huge drop, the Tories should still manage to hold on to at least one seat – and if they do, this will be that seat. It would take Danny Williams on the hustings with Stephane Dion in this riding to turn it.
07 06 12 RZ
The fallout from the budget debacle and Danny Williams' promise to campaign against the Tories will be a deciding factor here. A poll conducted for NTV by Telelink of more than 500 people in this riding found that only 11 per cent say they would vote for Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn, while 48 per cent would not.
07 06 12 Phil D.
Don't ignore the NDP; the poll that gave the Tories 17% gave the Liberals 53% and the NDP 27%. Grit support is still double the NDP's but their support is likely even more concentrated is the rural ridings, where Mont-Royal size margins (80%) have already occurred. St. John's is a little stronger for both the Tories and the NDP. I predict three-way races in both St. John's seats with the Tories at a disadvantage.
07 06 10 binriso
Really i think this is the only one the Conservatives can win. That said they can lose here too pretty easily. Hearn has not really put up the big wins except in 2000 election and he almost lost the byelection before that. TCTC
07 06 09 JC
Party is over here folks, The Conservatives have hit rock bottom with recent polling news that only 17% (No, that is not a typo) would support the party in the next election, This spells total wipeout for the Conservatives in this province.
07 07 20 RC
This one is not safe either. While it has gone conservative in every election since 1993, and every election before that, the boundary shift changes things. Last time, Hearn only held on through a relatively weak Liberal candidate and a pretty good NDP one. However, the boundary shift a few years back moved all those conservative votes from the southern shore over (where they belong) with Avalon and made this an urban/suburban riding. Greg Malone would have won this riding for the NDP in a 2000 by-election were the boundaries what they are now.
In Newfoundland right now, at least at the federal level there are no safe conservative seats. Provincially, that's another story.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This riding is generally a safe conservative seat and normally it shouldn't even by in play, but with the budget shafting Newfoundland & Labrador and Danny Williams promising to campaign against the Tories, this could potentially go Liberal. Loyola Hearn may also face some flack for not speaking out against the shaft on Newfoundland & Labrador. It will be tough for the Liberals to win this one, but it is doable. More importantly they will probably get a stronger candidate now than they would have before the budget.
07 03 29 JC
Danny Williams ranting over the Conservatives broken promise regarding the Equalization formula is going to turn Newfoundland and Labrador completely red.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
This is one of the safest tory wirings in the province, and with Hearn the fisheries minister, and with him able to take this riding again and again as just as MP, I dont think it's any question as to who will win here.

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