Prediction Changed
11:45 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Newfoundland and Labrador First
Bennett, Wayne Ronald
Byrne, Gerry
New Democratic
Kennedy, Mark
Robinson, Lorne

Hon. Gerry Byrne

2006 Result:
Gerry Byrne **
Cyril Jr. Pelley
Holly Pike
Martin Hanzalek

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 ducey
Easy Liberal hold. Gerry Byrne has been MP here for many years and is somone I, as a Conservative, respect. Look for Gerry Byrne to possibly be a name to run for the leadership of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal party within the next few years.
08 10 02
To ‘where to from here’:
Gerry did not get ‘Shuffled out’ of cabinet when Martin took over and was looking to shuffle out some Chretien ministers. He was dropped by Chretien well in advance of Martin taking over the party leadership. He sulked so badly that Martin did not invite him back into cabinet but asked John Efford. After Martin and Efford left and Dion took over Gerry was not even invited into the shadow cabinet, MP Scott Simms was. Gerry is not a rising star, he is yesterdays man)
You speak of Gerry's overwhelming success in the last number of elections. In 2004 Gerry had 62% of the vote and the Conservatives had 23%. In 2006 Gerry had 52% and the Conservatives had 31%. Gerry support has fallen while the Conservatives have grown. In 2004 Gerry had a 40% lead. In 2006 that was down to a 20% lead. If that trend continues in 2008 Gerry should have a 0% lead!
08 09 10 where to from here?
Last election, the candidate was facing the taunts of people who said it was an upset waiting to happen. Byrne went in with not only with a higher majority then any other Newfoundland member, he went in with one of the highest of any MP this side of Montreal. The election before that, there was calls that he would loose to the Conservatives because he was no longer in cabinet due to Martin shuffling out the former Chretien minister's. He won with 62% of the vote and more then doubling any of his four rivals. (John Efford then became minister, full stop). Before that, in 2000, pundits said the NDP was going to take this seat because Byrne was soooo unpopular. Alex M. decided to camp out in Byrne's riding the last weekend of the election. Not only did Byrne win but the NDP lost key ridings in other parts of Atlantic Canada due to the fact the leader was faked out into spending time in Byrne's riding. Moral of all of this...Byrne is sure to loose this time.
08 09 02 gumpfor
There is rumor that the PC party is planning to run a full slate in Newfoundland and Labadour. I feel if this happens that they might be able to win in this and other riding in Newfoundland with Danny asking all fellow Newfies to vote ABC, Mr.Dion's ‘Carbon Tax’ and lack of support for the army I see the PC party possibly winning this seat or others on the island.
08 08 27 MadCaper
This seat should be a safe seat for the Liberals due to the Tory problem of the Danny Williams factor. Having said that the Liberal vote will drop due to the Green Shift, which will not go over well in Newfoundland, and the continued ineffectiveness of Mr. Dion and the internal problems of the Liberal Party in Newfoundland. The tories will be hard pressed to hold second place. This all bodes well for the N.D.P. and the Green Parties who will increase their vote totals. The N.D.P. could very well sneak into 2nd place. The Greens will increase but, by how much is hard to say. Liberal hold.
08 02 09 A.S.
The only riding in Newfoundland sans Labrador to vote consistently Liberal since the dawn of the Chretien era (and, for that matter, stretching all the way back to Trudeau's last term). Doesn't mean it's always been a slam dunk; as recently as 1997, the PCs gave Gerry Byrne a scare--but by 2006, he'd earned the biggest Liberal margin in Newf'n'Lab. And that's back when the provincial and federal Conservatives were still on good terms. Now, of course...
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
Huge win last time, traditionally left wing riding, western based conservative party, it all adds up to another liberal win. The NDP has won this riding more often then Tories have. The people here don’t want tax cuts, they want spending. Add in the budget, and the Tories are Toast.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Safe Liberal riding to begin with and now even safer with the budget being good for Ontario and Quebec, but bad for Newfoundland & Labrador.

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