08 08 26	Bill 24.137.92.159
Williams sums it up, Manning is a Judis, he betrayed his province and will soon pay the price.
	08 04 17	Stevo 76.64.61.132
How might the Conservative government's vigourous defence of the sealers against the Farley Mowat anti-sealing crusade help their polling numbers in rural Newfoundland like this one? I think gestures like that could very well help them here and in other seats. Could anyone see a Stephane Dion government as forcefully standing up to environmental extremists or a proposed European boycott, even with the seal hunt legally mandated to be humane? It's my sense that the worst for the federal Conservatives in Newfoundland is over, and I wouldn't expect a seat like Avalon to be such an easy pickup for the Liberals as it seemed a year ago.
	08 03 21	Paul R. 208.114.160.104
Premier Williams ABC campaign is very much in play and Andrews will gain form this as this riding has Liberal roots. As I have read in The Shoreline, Andrews is a very outspoken councillor and he represents a new generation that appeals to young families in Conception Bay. His experience from his work in the Dept. of Fisheries will help him with the rural parts of the riding and fishing issues. His only problem is his Leader Dion and how he will keep him out of the riding. The NDP will not find a real candidate in this riding as there focus will be on Harris in East.
	08 03 19	Peter 142.163.241.122
Fabian Manning is a strong incumbent with a good reputation for constituency work. He is probably the strongest Conservative candidate in the province. The longer that Dion and the Liberals delay the election the more time he has to repair the damage done to him by voting with the government ti break its commitment to the province over taking non-renewable resources out of the formula for calculating transfer payments. Fabian will continue to enjoy a good deal of support on the Cape Shore up to Placentia. His party's position on the same sex issue and abortion will assist in solidifying support from fundamental Christians which tend to vote as a block in this riding. The battleground will be the densely populated area from Avondale to CBS. This is an area where the Liberal Candidate is strong and well known. A well respected and visible town councilor from CBS, Scott Andrews is hungry and beating the streets and knocking on doors. If the election had been called this spring, Scott would win hands down. I think that the further the election is delayed and the more amplified the dump Dion movement gets the stronger the Conservatives will get in reclaiming seats in this province.
	08 02 08	pc 142.163.81.212
A couple of things that will swing this vote Liberal once again... 1. Danny's ABC is powerful, and at 82 percent popularity his word carries some weight. 2. Urban vs rural will not play, Scott Andrews is a great candidate, he received the largest vote in CBS for a reason, he is a good listener, a hard worker and a great campaigner. 3. The district has ever only voted Conservative twice, once for Morrissey Johnson on the back of the seal hunt, and secondly Fabian Manning on the back of the crab (oh, and because Danny gave him the boot over it, people gave him a sympathy vote). 4. Finally, the Liberals will win all seats in NL except for the East which will go NDP if former provincial leader enters the race. In Avalon, the sky is turning back to red, and Scott Andrews is the next MP no matter where is he from. And John Johnson obviously does not him well enough, his deeps roots are from Cupids.
	08 02 06	Al 142.177.99.116
Williams will get what he wants. Manning is probably the least vulnerable of the three Conservatives on the rock, and it's true that Williams didn't get along with him in 2006 either, so he suffers least for loss of Danny's endorsement. However, the Conservative riding associations on the rock will be more split than usual - remember John Crosbie is now Lieutenant Governor and talking to people who matter again. I suspect he agrees with Williams that Harper has no use for NL and would let it rot. Certainly Steve is doing Brian no favours either. So as with other Conservatives, Manning is alone: there's no organization other than his own personal riding association to lean on. Williams' media presence and hatred of Harper will bring a few other players onside who stayed on the sidelines, even some whose big mouth (Crosbie) should remain shut given his viceregal post. An urban based candidate is a definite weakness, yes, but it also means a lot of NDP voters may be tempted, which they wouldn't for a rural based one. Remember the Liberal mission in Atlantic Canada is to swap all the Green votes for Liberal ones except in Central Nova where Liberals have been told to support May. And to crush the NDP in between those pincers. The whole strategy is about unifying the left vote behind the Liberals and it will probably work everywhere except existing NDP seats and South Shore St. Margarets where Gordon Earle could replace Gerald Keddy due to the same Atlantic Accord dynamics.
	08 01 29	John Johnson 24.138.129.52
I think Fabian Manning wins here again, the Liberal candidate is Scott Andrews who is a councillor in an urban part of the riding. This area needs a rural MP who understands the issues of rural Newfoundland. While Danny William's ABC campaign is still on and Danny is hugely popular down here, I think that in the federal election people will realize that it will be a CPC government again and that could lead to CPC gains down here and not losses like people are predicting.
	07 10 29	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Nick: on the contrary, I can see *this* as the most likely surviving Tory seat in Newfoundland; and that would hinge upon Fabian Manning being a party-label-transcending ‘John Efford in blue’ figure--as his scale of '06 victory (beyond either of the St. John's ridings) suggests. If such is the case, win or lose, don't be surprised if Manning ultimately goes Tobin on us and becomes Danny Williams' replacement in provincial power...
	07 10 21	binriso 156.34.214.28
This is the biggest win for the CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador. However this was at a time when the Liberals and CPC were deadlocked in support in the province(42.8% LIB 42.7% CPC). Now that Williams is fighting Harper and he won a massive landslide in the provincial election, there is basically no chance that the CPC will be even coming remotely close to 43% in NFLD next time. Not to mention, the CPC aren’t really any more popular in the Atlantic than they were in 2006, in fact it seems the opposite is true. The signs point to a small, but comfortable Liberal win in Avalon and at least 5 seats if not all 7 in the province.
	07 09 16	Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185
It’s over for the Tories in this seat. My guess is they’ll walk away from the next election with only a single Newfoundland MP and this will not be it. Manning will put up a good fight, but I just don’t see it being enough. The Liberals have the clear edge here.
	07 06 27	Stevo 74.122.230.74
Fabian Manning's personal popularity will not save this seat. The Tories are clearly in freefall in Newfoundland (not like this will matter to the outcome of the election on the whole, though) and most Tory resources in the province will likely go to saving Loyola Hearn in St. John's South, the most senior and high-profile of Newfoundland federal Tories. Manning may have a chance to regain this seat in the election after next should the Atlantic Accord dispute dissipate, but not this time. Liberal pickup.
	07 06 12	RZ 24.203.133.78
The fallout from the budget debacle and Danny Williams' promise to campaign against the Tories will be a deciding factor here. A poll conducted for NTV by Telelink of more than 500 people in this riding found that only 17 per cent would vote for Fabian Manning while 35 per cent said they would not.
	07 06 09	JC 207.188.64.230
Party is over here folks, The Conservatives have hit rock bottom with recent polling news that only 17% (No, that is not a typo) would support the party in the next election, This spells total wipeout for the Conservatives in this province.
	07 06 06	binriso 156.34.212.113
Well the Conservatives never won any of their Newfoundland seats by more than 4500 votes or so, so none of them are safe at all. Since Danny Williams is openly going against the Conservatives and he is extremely popular(Constantly above 70% in the polls)that got to hurt the Conservatives chances. None of them are safe and for now i predict TCTC with a slight advantage to the Liberals. Even Manning who's claim to fame is that he stood up to Williams will have a tough time against whoever the Liberals run.
	07 07 20	RC 134.153.210.140
Fabian Manning was elected last time because he stood up to Danny Williams, who was then his Premier and boss. He is in danger now because of his refusal to stand up to Harper, his Prime Minister and boss. To win he will need votes from the trinity-conception area, which he got last time, but which he may not get next time because he has lost face with the voters. I wouldn't count him out, but I would seriously question anyone who claims he is still as popular as he was last time.
	07 04 13	Laurence Putnam 24.87.64.173
Fabian Manning's entire schtick as a provincial politician was being a maverick who didn't get along with Danny Williams. Williams campaigning against him, if in fact he chooses to go that route, will not make a damn bit of difference. Manning wins for the same reason he won the riding in the first place - because he's Fabian Manning.
	07 04 02	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
A tough one to call. Fabian Manning is the incumbent won by a comfortable margin, but with the budget being bad news for Newfoundland & Labrador and Danny Williams promising to campaign against them, this could hurt his chances of re-election. The only benefit to Fabian Manning is he is a maverick to begin with and considering he was on bad terms even before running as a Tory, Williams might not be as popular here as say in St. John's. My guess is that even if the Liberals retake this, it would be by the margin John Efford took it in 2004. Likewise if Fabian Manning is re-elected, it will likely be by a smaller margin.
	07 03 30	td 24.138.130.38
It's hard to say right now, it could easily go either way but with the opposition here in Newfoundland to the federal budget this riding could go Liberal, shame too because the current MP, Conservative Fabian Manning, is one of the better people in politics.
	07 03 29	Daniel 156.34.85.213
Despite Danny William's 'scorched earth' policy toward the federal Conservatives, Fabian Manning will be re-elected. In fact, his greatest claim to fame was his disdain for Williams while he was in provincial politics. The voters of Avalon were aware of this in the last election, and he won in a Liberal stronghold by a 5000-vote margin as a result. Manning's personal popularity will prevail in the end.