Prediction Changed
2:36 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Andrews, Scott
Aylward, Dave
New Democratic
Dawe, Randy Wayne
Manning, Fabian

Fabian Manning

2006 Result:
Fabian Manning
Bill Morrow
Eugene Conway
Shannon Hillier

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 14 Delta DC
Avalon didn't go for the anti-Manning campaign in '04, and they won't go for ABC now. They're not as sore on the Conservatives as Danny thinks, hopes, and prays
08 10 14 Billy
seems like alot of support for andrews and dying support for manning, danny williams ABC campaign seems to be playing a role in this
08 10 13 Avalon observer
Notice the IP address for the two previous posts - ‘Jim, from Parliament Hill’ and ‘Wilf’ both come from the same IP address. I'm thinking ‘Jim’ may depend on Fabian Manning for a pay cheque.
And L.O. breaking out a two week old poll that was taken before Manning two recent scandals (the ‘slipped my mind’ $3,000 secret MHA bonus and the 36,000 Kms over 6 months billed in advance to his riding account). Even with that, Andrews and Manning were tied when factoring in the margin of error. has this one bang on.
08 10 11 L.O.
Fabian Manning will win this riding. Despite the best efforts of the ABC mafia, he has maintained a narrow lead among decided voters. This was confirmed in an NTV News Telelink Survey of voters in the riding.
08 10 11 Wilf
Fabian Manning will win this one again. It'll be closer for him than last time but he's far more qualified than Scott Andrews and much more liked in the riding - few know who Scott Andrews is outside of CBS. Mr. Andrews wasn't near as popular on the CBC Council as he thought he was either and that may cost him some votes in CBS. A Conservative win without a doubt.
08 10 10 Jim
The last entry I just read is quite uninformed. I work in Ottawa for a federal MP. Mr. Manning's visit to the seat next to the Prime Minister that day or any other day during Question Period, was not and could not have been purposeful or malicious as some might try to have others believe. Question Period is NOT scripted. In other words, the PM has no idea WHO in the Opposition will be asking a question, WHAT the question will be, or WHEN the question will be asked. Mr. Manning was no doubt trying to get some time to speak to the PM for some reason (happens all the time in the House while it's in session). Unfortunately for Mr. Manning, Mr. Simms asked a question of the PM. Mr. Manning was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The fact that Mr. Andrews implies that it was purposeful and planned couldn't possibly be further from the truth. I felt there was a need to clarify that. Either Mr. Andrews knows that and is being insincere and even malicious, or he's not aware of precisely how the HofC/Question Period works. Unfortunate either way. Mr. Manning will win his seat back. He is extremely well liked, highly respected, and known to be a dedicated constituency man by his MP colleagues in Ottawa.
08 10 10 pc
This seat is going red. Newfoundland and Labradorians do not react kindly to having their own mock them. It was Manning that left the back benches to join the PM as they made fun at the Newfoundland budget in 2008 that included record spending and tax cuts, all the while projecting another record surplus for next year to pay on the debt. I bet Manning regrets obeying Harper that day. When you put your leader before you Province you should pay the price. The polls have been close, but with a huge undecided vote, I think it is safe to say the majority of those people will remember this incident and vote Scott Andrews the next MP from Avalon. Andrews even has an ad running on the local NTV network reminding people of this incident - which is sure to upset people with Manning when they see it.
08 10 10 Lily
All Polls indicate Conservatives will take this riding, for sure. ABC Campaign has been backfiring on Premier Williams for past 4 days. Mr. Manning has always been ahead, even before the ABC Campaign started to loose steam. Clearly a Conservative win.
08 10 09 Lar
I think this is a bit of an early call for this riding. The prediction for the last election was also Liberal, with Manning tuning out a win by 5000 votes. The last scientific poll had a dead heat with Manning ahead, but not outside the +/- factor, with a 40% undecided. This one will go to the wire. The media coverage over the next three days will be crucial. This is not Manning v. Scott Andrews. It's Manning v. Williams.
08 10 07 binriso
Something else interesting, the NDP are running an ex-Alliancer. Figure that out.
08 10 07
Looks like this one will go Liberal. Fabian's obvious concern for his own behind has placed him at odds with the electorate. The Conservatives are trying to shore up his vote by pitching that NL needs a voice in government. Given what we've heard of Fabian's voice I would say that enough voters will concur that he is singing from Harper's hymn book and vote Liberal.
08 10 05 Marco Ricci
Looks like this riding is considered the Conservatives' best shot in Newfoundland, (meaning the predictions showing the Conservatives losing the 2 St. John's ridings may be accurate) but according to an article today, ‘Conservatives fear wipeout in Newfoundland’, Avalon may be at risk too:
08 10 03
Manning is on the ropes. He was caught by the Telegram and the CBC today for expense indiscretions from his time as an MHA (it ‘slipped his mind’ to repay a secret bonus, and he pre-expensed miles on his car that he planned to take, and ran up 36,000 Kms in 6 months leading up to an election)
The Telelink poll was a virtual tie. This will tip the tide. The people of Newfoundland and Labrador don't take expense account fraud lightly (look at Walter Noel at 10% his riding for proof of that).
08 09 21 Dennis Jacobs
I predict Mr. Scott Andrews of the Liberal Party of Canada will narrowly defeat Conservative Incumbant, Fabian Manning. Mr. Manning has not been seen often in the riding since the last election. Mr. Manning to many seems to simply be a mouthpiece or a puppet of Stephen Harper. Also, people throughout Newfoundland and Labrador are paying attention to Premier Williams' ABC Campaign, which will make a difference in the beautiful riding of Avalon. Mr. Andrews has been an extremely outspoken member of the Conception Bay South Town Council.
08 09 21 Maritimer
If there is to be a Conservative hold out in Newfoundland this time around, it will be here. Fabian Manning won the seat by proving to be a bit of a maverick and a populist in taking on Danny in the crab quota fight. My sense is that Manning still commands a considerable amount of support there for his standing up, but will it be enough to hang on?
The Liberals are running someone who by most accounts is a popular municipal politician from the more heavily populated area of the riding. Previous poll results will show a lot of strength on both sides, with the NDP not playing a major factor in this particular seat (which will likely help the Liberals). This is the former seat of would be Liberal Premier turned federal cabinet minister John Efford, who muttered the now famous words on the diet of seals, ‘well, they don't eat Mary Brown's’.
Clearly, there is a bit of a tradition in voting for colourful MP's, who stand up for the area, but Manning may have too much to overcome. I don't think Manning will be able to overcome the triple threat of the ABC campaign, an unpopular federal Conservative leader (polls show Harper is the least favoured of federal leaders in NL), and a general support for the Liberals. Liberal win by less than 1,000.
08 09 20 Andre
I don't see Avalon getting behind the ABC campaign, even in 2004 when Danny was pals with Stephen Harper, he was against Fabian Manning. The people of the riding backed Manning even after Williams' tossed him from cabinet and smeared his name... and I think that Avalon will be less likely to back the childish ABC campaign and back Fabian again
08 09 19 SMC
With the ABC campaign in high gear, Avalon will likely return to the Liberal.
08 09 19 RC
I lived in this riding, and both the St. John's ridings for that matter, and anyone who thinks there's a solid NDP vote in this riding clearly doesn't. When Newfoundland polls show a strong support for the NDP, it's almost entirely concentrated in the two St. John's ridings and Western Labrador. Using Newfoundland-wide polls, let alone Canada-wide polls, to predict what will happen in any particular riding is a fool's game, but especially so in Newfoundland. Partly, this is a problem of concentration: the NDP mght have 12 percent provincially, but 35-40% in St. John's east, which is one of the more populous ridings.
Second, Newfoundlanders overwhelmingly vote for the person rather than the party, and Fabian Manning's 'unfavourables' have risen drastically while his 'favourables' shrunk. He's now seen as Harper's Man in Newfoundland; not a good thing.
I thought this might be the closest one, and I still think so, but it's still a Liberal riding at the core. The southern shore/cape shore traditionally vote conservative - and the candidates are usually from there - but the trinity-conception area, where the Liberal candidate usually comes from, has more people by far. About half the riding lives in the 40km from CBS to Carbonear, so did John Efford, and so does Scott Andrews. They know him, like him, and will vote for him.
08 09 18 binriso
The CPC only won this riding by 12.9% last time. Thats not that big of a margin. If that poll shows the CPC around 33% that represents a 10 point drop provincewide. The Liberals only need to be 3% higher to take this then(not to mention theres more possible votes to be lost here than any other riding in NFLD). Probably only about a 1 or 2 thousand vote win but a win nonetheless.
08 09 17 O. B. Won
A major swing of 21% against the Conservatives would be needed for the Liberals to win here. Currently, according to the polls, there is only a provincial wide swing of 11% away from the Tories and this swing is being split between all three left-wing parties (in fact, the Liberals are getting less than a third of this 11% swing). The Conservatives won this seat in 2006 with a 4,800+ vote margin and will retain this seat in 2008 with a possible voter margin of around 1,500 to 2,000. In the unlike event that the Green Party endorses the Liberal Party, it would still be a Conservative win with a margin of between 1,000 to 1,500. Only way the Liberals could pick this up in the current scheme of things is if the NDP endorsed the Liberal Party AND ... of course ... all NDP voters went and voted for the Liberal candidate instead. Otherwise, the Conservatives will retain this seat.
08 09 16
Word has it that some of the popular PC MHA's in the district will begin campaigning for Andrews, as some have already done in St. John's for other candidates.
If Andrews can get out on the ground a little more in the next couple of weeks, this could tip the scales.
08 09 16 L.O
Latest publicly released polls ( show that even at this stage, one in every three Newfoundlanders will be voting Conservative. . . if that is distributed as it usually is in Newfoundland and Labrador, with lion's share of core Tory support on the Avalon Peninsula, an effect that may be even more pronounced in Avalon riding given Fabian Manning is probably the most high profile candidate that any riding is putting forward these days, then it is likely that Fabian Manning will hold his seat.
08 09 15 Wayne M.
One of the few ridings the Liberals have a shot at gaining in this election. The Liberal candidate here is very popular and received the most votes of any candidate for councillor in the history of the Town of C.B.S. in the last municipal election. A gain for the Liberals is certainly a strong possibility here.
08 09 15 MC
I think Manning will hold on by a hair. There was a surprisingly decent sized crowd out to the rally in Harbour Grace the weekend. Memories are short when it comes to politics, this will be prove that point beyond dispute on October 14th. This will be the only Conservative seat in the province.
I would estimate from looking at the current atmosphere, Manning's win (52% to Morrow's 39%) last time, and the national polls it will play out something like this:
CON ~38%
LIB ~36%
NDP ~21%
OTH ~5%
08 09 14 rebel
I'm going to call this one for Fabian Manning. He is used to being on the outs with Danny Williams and it should be alluring for the voters here to have an almost certain chance of gaining a cabinet minister.
Harper has campaigned here and he isn't one for wasting time or effort. He is also refusing to be drawn into a spitting contest with Williams (an altogether bright approach).
08 09 13 John
I've read what others have posted about this being a swing riding. Then taken a look at the national polls that suggest the Conservatives will form the next government. Further, with the Liberals leading in Atlantic Canada, the number of MPs Harper could tap for cabinet posts from Atlantic Canada could be small.
Now there is a benefit to having an MP on the government side of the house, and this might be enough to pull this riding into the Conservative camp even if the rest of the province goes Liberal. Even more pull if there is a chance of a seat at the cabinet table as well.
08 09 12 Avalon observer
Avalon is one of the few seats that will turn Liberal this election. No matter how many times Stephen Harper visits the riding (he's scared to go to other ridings in NL) it won't be enough to save Fabian Manning.
In this riding it comes down Scott Andrews, a popular councillor who got the most votes in the last municipal election in CBS.
08 09 11 Nick J Boragina
If the Tories win a seat on Newfoundland this will be it. Manning is the only one left standing. He himself was never popular with Williams and did not get much PC support in the last election - he still win however. If he can win without Williams once, he may be able to do it again. All of this is still as of yet undecided, and I'd not be surprised to see this riding go Liberal.
08 09 10 binriso
With the other CPC NFLD MPs resigning, Manning remains the only one left and not for long either since the Liberals are going to take this seat in the election. With 70% of the vote in the last provincial election youd better damn well believe that Danny Williams campaign against the Conservatives carries serious credibility easily enough to overcome 4 or 5 thousand vote margins. People love him. Not to mention theres a personal feud because Manning used to be part of the provincial PCs and left the party on bad terms. That and I for one havent heard much from Manning on the Federal stage either, which doesnt really help.
08 09 10 RC
This is the only riding in Newfoundland where the CPC has any shot at all, and even then it's a long shot. Last time Fabian Manning was immensely popular because he stood up for his crab fishing constituents against the premier. This time he is unpopular for not standing up to Harper on equalization, or anything else. The Liberal candidate beat two well known politicians (Bill Morrow, who ran last time, and Norm Whalen, Dion's campaign coordinator in Newfoundland) to get the nomination, so he must have something going for him. The only way this one goes CPC is if the NDP run a decent candidate, and they and the Liberals split the protest vote, and everyone on the Cape Shore still votes for Fabian as their local boy. Even then, my call would be Liberal.
08 09 09 Damian P.
Manning went into federal politics after falling out with Danny Williams, so you know the premier will be gunning for him this time. But he's been in politics for a while, and he still has quite a bit of personal support in his riding. This is the Conservatives' best chance to hold a seat in Newfoundland, and if a Tory victory looks inevitable, Manning should be able to squeak through. (By default, he'd almost certainly end up in Harper's cabinet)
08 09 07 ducey
This could be a key riding to watch on Election Night. You can bet that Premier William's ABC campaign will be out in full force here as his former co-M.H.A. is running here for the Conservatives. Fabian Manning could very well be in cabinet if he is re-elected and that should get him the victory.
08 08 28 MIke
Bill, I could not have said it better myself. Manning double crossed the voters of Avalon and being from the riding, I can tell you Manning is toast.
08 08 28 Political Junkie
It should be noted that Fabian Manning was known as and regarded as a maverick against Danny Williams when he ran and won in 2006. The fact that he ran afoul of Williams then did not hamper his ability to win, and I see little chance of it doing so now. Of course there is always the possibility of a shift, but I don't see it happening here.
08 08 26 Bill
Williams sums it up, Manning is a Judis, he betrayed his province and will soon pay the price.
08 04 17 Stevo
How might the Conservative government's vigourous defence of the sealers against the Farley Mowat anti-sealing crusade help their polling numbers in rural Newfoundland like this one? I think gestures like that could very well help them here and in other seats. Could anyone see a Stephane Dion government as forcefully standing up to environmental extremists or a proposed European boycott, even with the seal hunt legally mandated to be humane? It's my sense that the worst for the federal Conservatives in Newfoundland is over, and I wouldn't expect a seat like Avalon to be such an easy pickup for the Liberals as it seemed a year ago.
08 03 21 Paul R.
Premier Williams ABC campaign is very much in play and Andrews will gain form this as this riding has Liberal roots. As I have read in The Shoreline, Andrews is a very outspoken councillor and he represents a new generation that appeals to young families in Conception Bay. His experience from his work in the Dept. of Fisheries will help him with the rural parts of the riding and fishing issues. His only problem is his Leader Dion and how he will keep him out of the riding. The NDP will not find a real candidate in this riding as there focus will be on Harris in East.
08 03 19 Peter
Fabian Manning is a strong incumbent with a good reputation for constituency work. He is probably the strongest Conservative candidate in the province. The longer that Dion and the Liberals delay the election the more time he has to repair the damage done to him by voting with the government ti break its commitment to the province over taking non-renewable resources out of the formula for calculating transfer payments.
Fabian will continue to enjoy a good deal of support on the Cape Shore up to Placentia. His party's position on the same sex issue and abortion will assist in solidifying support from fundamental Christians which tend to vote as a block in this riding.
The battleground will be the densely populated area from Avondale to CBS. This is an area where the Liberal Candidate is strong and well known. A well respected and visible town councilor from CBS, Scott Andrews is hungry and beating the streets and knocking on doors.
If the election had been called this spring, Scott would win hands down.
I think that the further the election is delayed and the more amplified the dump Dion movement gets the stronger the Conservatives will get in reclaiming seats in this province.
08 02 08 pc
A couple of things that will swing this vote Liberal once again...
1. Danny's ABC is powerful, and at 82 percent popularity his word carries some weight.
2. Urban vs rural will not play, Scott Andrews is a great candidate, he received the largest vote in CBS for a reason, he is a good listener, a hard worker and a great campaigner.
3. The district has ever only voted Conservative twice, once for Morrissey Johnson on the back of the seal hunt, and secondly Fabian Manning on the back of the crab (oh, and because Danny gave him the boot over it, people gave him a sympathy vote).
4. Finally, the Liberals will win all seats in NL except for the East which will go NDP if former provincial leader enters the race.
In Avalon, the sky is turning back to red, and Scott Andrews is the next MP no matter where is he from. And John Johnson obviously does not him well enough, his deeps roots are from Cupids.
08 02 06 Al
Williams will get what he wants. Manning is probably the least vulnerable of the three Conservatives on the rock, and it's true that Williams didn't get along with him in 2006 either, so he suffers least for loss of Danny's endorsement. However, the Conservative riding associations on the rock will be more split than usual - remember John Crosbie is now Lieutenant Governor and talking to people who matter again. I suspect he agrees with Williams that Harper has no use for NL and would let it rot. Certainly Steve is doing Brian no favours either.
So as with other Conservatives, Manning is alone: there's no organization other than his own personal riding association to lean on. Williams' media presence and hatred of Harper will bring a few other players onside who stayed on the sidelines, even some whose big mouth (Crosbie) should remain shut given his viceregal post.
An urban based candidate is a definite weakness, yes, but it also means a lot of NDP voters may be tempted, which they wouldn't for a rural based one. Remember the Liberal mission in Atlantic Canada is to swap all the Green votes for Liberal ones except in Central Nova where Liberals have been told to support May. And to crush the NDP in between those pincers. The whole strategy is about unifying the left vote behind the Liberals and it will probably work everywhere except existing NDP seats and South Shore St. Margarets where Gordon Earle could replace Gerald Keddy due to the same Atlantic Accord dynamics.
08 01 29 John Johnson
I think Fabian Manning wins here again, the Liberal candidate is Scott Andrews who is a councillor in an urban part of the riding. This area needs a rural MP who understands the issues of rural Newfoundland. While Danny William's ABC campaign is still on and Danny is hugely popular down here, I think that in the federal election people will realize that it will be a CPC government again and that could lead to CPC gains down here and not losses like people are predicting.
07 10 29 A.S.
Nick: on the contrary, I can see *this* as the most likely surviving Tory seat in Newfoundland; and that would hinge upon Fabian Manning being a party-label-transcending ‘John Efford in blue’ figure--as his scale of '06 victory (beyond either of the St. John's ridings) suggests. If such is the case, win or lose, don't be surprised if Manning ultimately goes Tobin on us and becomes Danny Williams' replacement in provincial power...
07 10 21 binriso
This is the biggest win for the CPC in Newfoundland and Labrador. However this was at a time when the Liberals and CPC were deadlocked in support in the province(42.8% LIB 42.7% CPC). Now that Williams is fighting Harper and he won a massive landslide in the provincial election, there is basically no chance that the CPC will be even coming remotely close to 43% in NFLD next time. Not to mention, the CPC aren’t really any more popular in the Atlantic than they were in 2006, in fact it seems the opposite is true. The signs point to a small, but comfortable Liberal win in Avalon and at least 5 seats if not all 7 in the province.
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
It’s over for the Tories in this seat. My guess is they’ll walk away from the next election with only a single Newfoundland MP and this will not be it. Manning will put up a good fight, but I just don’t see it being enough. The Liberals have the clear edge here.
07 06 27 Stevo
Fabian Manning's personal popularity will not save this seat. The Tories are clearly in freefall in Newfoundland (not like this will matter to the outcome of the election on the whole, though) and most Tory resources in the province will likely go to saving Loyola Hearn in St. John's South, the most senior and high-profile of Newfoundland federal Tories. Manning may have a chance to regain this seat in the election after next should the Atlantic Accord dispute dissipate, but not this time. Liberal pickup.
07 06 12 RZ
The fallout from the budget debacle and Danny Williams' promise to campaign against the Tories will be a deciding factor here. A poll conducted for NTV by Telelink of more than 500 people in this riding found that only 17 per cent would vote for Fabian Manning while 35 per cent said they would not.
07 06 09 JC
Party is over here folks, The Conservatives have hit rock bottom with recent polling news that only 17% (No, that is not a typo) would support the party in the next election, This spells total wipeout for the Conservatives in this province.
07 06 06 binriso
Well the Conservatives never won any of their Newfoundland seats by more than 4500 votes or so, so none of them are safe at all. Since Danny Williams is openly going against the Conservatives and he is extremely popular(Constantly above 70% in the polls)that got to hurt the Conservatives chances. None of them are safe and for now i predict TCTC with a slight advantage to the Liberals. Even Manning who's claim to fame is that he stood up to Williams will have a tough time against whoever the Liberals run.
07 07 20 RC
Fabian Manning was elected last time because he stood up to Danny Williams, who was then his Premier and boss. He is in danger now because of his refusal to stand up to Harper, his Prime Minister and boss. To win he will need votes from the trinity-conception area, which he got last time, but which he may not get next time because he has lost face with the voters. I wouldn't count him out, but I would seriously question anyone who claims he is still as popular as he was last time.
07 04 13 Laurence Putnam
Fabian Manning's entire schtick as a provincial politician was being a maverick who didn't get along with Danny Williams. Williams campaigning against him, if in fact he chooses to go that route, will not make a damn bit of difference.
Manning wins for the same reason he won the riding in the first place - because he's Fabian Manning.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
A tough one to call. Fabian Manning is the incumbent won by a comfortable margin, but with the budget being bad news for Newfoundland & Labrador and Danny Williams promising to campaign against them, this could hurt his chances of re-election. The only benefit to Fabian Manning is he is a maverick to begin with and considering he was on bad terms even before running as a Tory, Williams might not be as popular here as say in St. John's. My guess is that even if the Liberals retake this, it would be by the margin John Efford took it in 2004. Likewise if Fabian Manning is re-elected, it will likely be by a smaller margin.
07 03 30 td
It's hard to say right now, it could easily go either way but with the opposition here in Newfoundland to the federal budget this riding could go Liberal, shame too because the current MP, Conservative Fabian Manning, is one of the better people in politics.
07 03 29 Daniel
Despite Danny William's 'scorched earth' policy toward the federal Conservatives, Fabian Manning will be re-elected. In fact, his greatest claim to fame was his disdain for Williams while he was in provincial politics. The voters of Avalon were aware of this in the last election, and he won in a Liberal stronghold by a 5000-vote margin as a result. Manning's personal popularity will prevail in the end.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster