2:21 PM 31/12/2005

Prediction Changed
12:51 AM 09/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Peace River
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Bill Given
Tanya Mary Kappo
Zane Lewis
Susan Thompson
Chris Warkentin

Charlie Penson

2004 Result:
Charlie Penson
Lyle Carlstrom
Susan Thompson
Benjamin Morrison Pettit

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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31 12 05 Bear and Ape
To predict anything other than a Conservative win, despite the candidate, in rural Alberta is nothing short of dumb. If the Liberals (and we are disregarding other parties as they have not a prayer at all anywhere in Alberta) can not take more than one or two ridings in the Edmonton area how can they possibly hope to overcome a 20,000 (say it out loud; TWENTY THOUSAND) vote difference. Please do not claim personal appeal of the candidate, it isn't that. Also demographics have not changed that much since the 2004 election, unless (as we've said in other postings) there was some mass refugee movement to the riding that we were unaware of. Solid CPC hold. Period.
06 12 05 Katy
If Charlie Penson was running again I would predict results similar to the last election. But because he is NOT running I'm not as sure of the results. Another thing to consider in this riding is the growing population. We are getting lots of people moving to Grande Prairie and other areas in the peace, from other provinces, these people know that it is possible for a non-conservative candidate to win!
26 11 05 Jim
Still no Liberal candidate and little likelihood of a big name announcement coming. Total Conservative walk with ~70% of the vote.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
The Conservatives may be weaker in the North than further South, but that means nothing since this is Alberta where the Conservatives will win big no matter what part of Rural Alberta one is in. The only difference between the North and South is the Conservatives usually get in the 60s in the North and 70s in the Southern rural areas. Besides provincially the PCs in the last election actually did better in Northern Alberta than Southern Alberta in the rural areas, although this area did go NDP and liberal back in the 80s, but this was when oil prices were low and their economy was suffering from it, which isn't the case now.
16 09 05 Susan Thompson
I can't give a credible opinion on outcome since I'm running (NDP), but I can tell you that Charlie Penson is retiring and his replacement is a virtually unknown 26 year old (same age as myself). He was President of the Conservative riding association apparently; Bruce Logan, a lawyer, contested the nomination. There is no Liberal candidate yet and the riding association President has been filling in to give quotes in the papers. (Lyle Carlstrom, last year's Liberal candidate, was very well-known and apparently spent more than his limit on his campaign and still only had a few percentage points above me with my much smaller campaign.) No Green candidate yet either. At present I am the only "incumbent candidate" as the media have readily called me, meaning I have the most name recognition right now, and only Warkentin and I are campaigning (and frankly I don't think he did too much of that over the summer). I have been pulling in some Liberal and Conservative voters myself, although too early to tell how significant that will be--and how volatile the electorate is might depend on when the election actually comes. Bottom line is I think this could mean that the race is more interesting this time around, because of the unique circumstances, despite the long tradition of Conservative voting here. Just a bit of info for you as you make your predictions.
11 07 05 Nick Boragina
This is a northern riding, something people like to forget. While it will mean a little more of a fight for the Tories, right now I just cant see either the Liberals or the NDP winning here. It is possible, though, and within the decade even, that the Liberals or NDP could take this riding one day. The NDP has won here provincially in the past.
16 05 05 News Junkie
but Penson is not running again so you never know
09 05 05
Although Conservative support tends to be strong further South, this is rural Alberta and will always go for the most right wing party on the ballot even if it is not by as large a margin as further South. Charlie Pension who has been invisible as an MP will easily be re-elected. You could run a monkey as a conservative in this riding and the monkey would likely win.
07 05 05 GM
Charlie Penson is not a real strong candidate, and he STILL garnered 2/3 of the vote last time. He could lose 10-20% and still win this riding running away.

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