10:55 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:02 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Centre
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Laurie Hawn
Donna Martyn
Anne McLellan
Peggy Morton
David J. Parker
Chandra Segaran Swamy

Hon. Anne McLellan

2004 Result:
Anne McLellan
Laurie Hawn
Meghan McMaster
David J. Parker
Lyle Kenny
Sean Tisdall
John Baloun
Peggy Morton

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06
results of a Vincero telphone poll released Jan 20th
Total eligible responses: 409 Total ineligible: 24
Edmonton Centre (Jan. 19 18:00 to 21:00)
1. Conservative (Laurie Hawn) 36.4%
2. NDP (Donna Martyn) 10.9%
3. Liberal (Anne McLellan) 29.7%
4. Marxist-Leninist (Peggy Morton) 2.5%
5. Green (David J. Parker) 7.1%
6. Independent (Chandra Segaran Swamy) 0.7%
7. Undecided 12.7%
Total eligible responses: 448 Total ineligible 33
19 01 06 Matt
I think this one will be a Tory sweep. Anne McLellan has admitted that the federal campaign has hurt her chances of winning and considering how the Liberal label has probably hurt more than helped in Alberta, I think the province will go 100% blue.
18 01 06 Tory Blue
The 22 Liberals who live in Alberta and have rallied around Little Orphan Annie in past campaigns have no argument to present to voters this time.
It has always been "elect one Albertan who has the prime ministers ear" That goes out the window when they have already elected 27 MPs who do have the prime minister's ear.
16 01 06 Victor A.
Given that poll's results and Conservative momentum I do believe that Ann will lose this election. 7 % in a poll with a quite large sample is a lot and with the Liberal campaign going quite badly there simply is not enough time for Ann to make it back. Conservatives are going to win all of 28 Alberta seats. I have no doubt about that.
16 01 06 Ged
Anne too popular on the ground not to be elected. With 60% approval rating, I think people angry with liberals may be yanking the polls to punish a liberal, but will elect the candidate because of who she is. And besides, she may be in contention for PM one day. Imagine! A woman PM from a western riding.
14 01 06 watcher
An Ipsos-Reid poll done specifically on Edmonton Center (with 600 elegible voters in this riding as sample size) shows Ann McClellan at 35% and Laurie Hawn at 42%. While Ipsos-Reid itself said the race is too close to call despite this gap, I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the Conservatives. Tides have changed. Anne might be incumbent, but it's Anne who's fighting an uphill battle now.
13 01 06 C Olmert
A new poll done by Ipsos Reid for the Edmonton Journal for Edmonton Centre puts Hawn and the Conservatives at 42% and Annie at 35%. The poll, conducted by phone between Jan. 9 and Jan. 11, asked 600 people. It is considered accurate to within four percentage points 19 times out of 20. Plus I belive that Hawn could get some points for that ad that came out. He himself being a ex-pilot.
13 01 06 Elessar
Landslide Annie won by only 721 last election, and the Conservatives weren't doing as well last campaign as they are now. That, coupled with Laurie Hawn's name recognition from the last election, is going to send Anne packing. One can expect Alberta to be solid blue this time around.
13 01 06 John
The Edmonton Journal had IPSOS Reid do a poll on voter preference in Edmonton Centre and published the result in todays (January 13, 2006) paper.
According to the poll, Anne McLellan, with 35% support, is trailing Laurie Hawn with 42%. If there is a silver lining in this dark cloud for the Liberal incumbant, people like her as an MP. The millstone that is dragging her down is the perception people have of the national party.
I'm leaning more towards giving this seat to the Conservatives all the time, but with a week still to go in the campaign, a lot can happen. I'd keep it in the too close to call group for a little while longer.
12 01 06 Westerner
Any talk of Anne taking this should be thrown out of the window now with the Liberals release attack ad on military. The CFB is not too far from this riding.
11 01 06 Laurence Putnam
At last, I am convinced that Landslide Annie is going down to defeat.
Incidentally, I have never been convinced of this before, and have always given my very trepid confidence to Anne's uncanny ability of holding this seat. But the excitement about a Conservative government that is catching on in Ontario, and even in Québec, tells me that its all over for "landslide".
Last time, the Tory campaign collapsed in the final week, and Joe Clark was out stumping for Anne. She clung on. Not so this time. Edmontonians are going to salute Lt.-Col. Hawn's bid for E-C, bolstered on by the name-rec he built for himself last time.
11 01 06 John
Landslide Annie seems to have her sign campaign up and running now. Her signs are everywhere. I ride the bus through the riding every day, and all the way from downtown to Meadowlark (near the southwest corner of the riding) you can see Anne McLellan signs.
While the Conservatives may be polling over 60% provincially, let's not forget during the last provincial election, the Liberals all but buried the Conservatives on election day. So there is still a lot of Liberal support in the riding.
McLellan is a promient Liberal and one of the party heavyweights as well, so if the Liberals are pouring resources into any riding in Alberta, it will be this one.
That said, nationally the tide seems to be flowing in the Tories direction. McLellan's team seemed slow to get into gear this time, and a recent Globe and Mail article suggests many Liberal candidates see the Liberal national campaign as a liability rather than an asset.
It is Hawn's second run at the riding (so he's not an unknown anymore), and his campaign did seem to get running a bit sooner as well. Also got some added publicity on the radio this morning with his latest campaign piece, an envelope that contained a note with words to the effect that, "If you were a Liberal, this envelope would have contained money." Good or bad, any free publicity like that is a bonus.
Finally, unlike the 2004 election, the NDP are running a stronger candidate which could pull some support away from the Liberals.
So while I am not yet willing to give the riding to Hawn, I'm going to change my opinion on it going to McLellan by a whisker.
The riding is up for grabs, and it could go either way.
11 01 06 Mark
Keep in mind that this area of Edmonton holds most of the gay vote. We will be driven by Harper's social beliefs to get out and vote for Anne. I am sure she will pull through again
07 01 06 Mike
With Conservatives polling 62% in Alberta, this one will go with the province due to the party's sheer momentum. I really think that you will find 400 people who voted Liberal last time to switch over and seal the deal for Hawn. People saying that voters will want to vote Liberal if only to ensure that there is at least some diversity coming from Alberta have a plausible argument. But I think that most voters don't concentrate on what's happening in the ridings surrounding them, the local and national campaign come first. In this sense, they will go with the government.
07 01 06 Floyd
Between December 22 and January 5 CPAC's polling service shows a drop in Liberal support in Alberta from 31% to 19%. Conservative support has risen from 49% to 64%. While several factors still make this riding hard to predict (high margain of error in this poll, two weeks left in campaign, Anne's uncanny ability to survive), I do believe combined factors make this election the best chance in a generation for the Conservatives to win this riding. Either way it will be a squeaker, but my call is for a Conservative win.
05 01 06 David Anber
I've only been in this riding once, and my knowledge is limited, but I have studied the numbers extensively.
Broken down into a simplistic formula, Anne McLellan always wins by the skin of her teeth and she always does it by getting her vote out. Trust me, the Liberals aren't winning any new support in Alberta so the Liberal GOTV efforts aren't ID'ing new support, they simply get their known vote out -- and they do this very well each time.
But what this means is that they've hit their ceiling time and time again. The right isn't split anymore, and the Tories' organizational game (i.e. their GOTV efforts) have really improved significantly (significant being an understatement).
Add the fact that the poll numbers and momentum are with the Conservatives, expect Anne McLellan to finally bow out of federal politics in this election, losing by about 800 votes or more.
28 12 05 Greg P
This one will go with the government. If it looks like a Liberal government, the riding will tend to want to keep Landslide Annie around; if it looks like a Conservative government, they won't have a whole lot of use for her (although it'll be very close - and an effective GOTV effort could swing the riding in either case).
All in all, this is going to be (as always) the race to watch in Alberta, unless you want to start betting on how many tens of thousands of votes Monte Solberg will win by.
28 12 05 John
While I still think Landslide Annie will take this riding again, it will be very close and I think it is right to call it To Close To Call.
That said, Laurie Hawn and his team are definitely doing a lot of work. I was out running errands earlier today in the western part of the riding, and I could see a lot of Laurie Hawn lawn signs, but only a few Anne McLellan ones.
Compared with other elections when I lived in the riding, Anne McLellan's team seem slower getting her campaign up and running this time around. Last election, her signs were popping up even before the election was called.
28 12 05 Brian Dell
This is too close to call definitively, but Landslide Annie's 2004 margin is likely too much to overcome for Hawn. It is less than 1000 votes but the Liberal GOTV machine is probably #1 in the country in this riding and there are very few swing voters left that would actually switch from Lib to Cons. Whoever is leading nationally is the favorite here and for now that means the Libs. Tories will have to wait until Annie retires or their national campaign is strong enough to form a govt.
21 12 05 Nick
This is Landslide Annie's riding... if the Libs were able to win this riding in the last election, they will be able to do it again, seeing that the sponsorship scandal broke BEFORE the last election, and the Liberals' numbers have actually increased since then, if only slightly. Add to that the fact that this is Edmonton (centre!) and not Calgary, as well as the fact that Anne is the deputy PM, and that voters in this riding will want to keep at least one Liberal MP from Alberta in Ottawa. Landslide Annie will do it again!
20 12 05 ktr
The conservatives upset a lot of their supporters this weekend with their treatment of that Talbot lady whose pregnant daughter was murdered. Telling her she can't collect signatures at the event, covering up her daughter's picture with conservative signs, then harper refusing to meet with her and having this all go into the Edmonton Sun!
Anne McLellan always outworks her opponents and gets support from any and all former progressive conservatives.
The Alliance/Reform vote is not enough for Hawn this time.
19 12 05 Smoking Gun
In response to Hawn's pawn - Nice pipe dream! The Pro.Can votes aren't yours and would likely stay in protestland. I held a conservative card and was in the moderates section with Brison, Orchard, and Stronach. First McKay's outright lying as Pro.Con. leader wasn't too appealing, and then the joke of the "party merging" where the voting process made it slanted in favour of the merge (example: 62% in the riding agree with merge, so 10 of 10 delegates will vote pro-merge on the floor *rolls eyes*). If people jump or get shoved off the ship, they're not going to swim right back to it! If it was a problem for Pro.Can. voters to vote both Conservative or Liberal in 2004, its most likely the same case now. The only factor which messes this up works AGAINST Hawn's campaign, where the ex-cons decide to stick it to their former party to prop up Landslide Annie, but you would tend to think those who would did it last time.
16 12 05 ëéìá
I actually work on Laurie Hawns campaign and it looks pretty promising. For one last year we lost some votes to the PC party who ran. and I believe that we can get those votes this time. Also there is no other parties running. I mean other than the Libs, Cons, NDP,and Green. last year there were, I believe ther were 4 other people running, for a total of 1264 votes from last year up in the air. most likely the 456 votes from the PC will go to Mr. Hawn so that leaves about 256 votes behind Libs if everything stayed the same
14 12 05 M.T.
In response to Adam: is it appropriate to make a broad prediction about the national results, especially without backing it up with anything? I refer to your comment about how "the Conservatives will not form government", and "to suggest otherwise is ludicrous". You do realize, don't you, that with the seat count what it was when the writ was dropped, only 15 seats would have to change hands from Liberal to Tory for a Tory minority? Considering that the Liberals are expected to lose at least a few seats in Quebec, the race gets even closer. And today, a CTV/Globe poll found the Cons ahead by two points outside of Quebec; that doesn't effect this particular race, but it does illustrate that the choice of government is very much in play. That's why a race like Edmonton Centre could, in fact, play a big role in deciding who gets into government, and the voters will keep that in mind when they cast a ballot.
In a riding like this, the one chance to block the Conservatives in Alberta, I would expect a total collapse of the NDP vote in an effort to keep a non-Tory MP in Ottawa. At the same time, the Conservatives badly want to sweep Alberta...
Either Tory or Liberal by less than 200 votes, with the NDP down by two thousand votes from last year.
14 12 05 Smoking Gun
In reply to a previous post (Mr. Lynch) - This is Edmonton Centre, i'm a voter in this riding.. and you may know something I don't know, but I didn't realize Downtown Edmonton was fertile hunting ground. Crime is becoming an issue here so in fact gun control could be a good issue for the Libs, except for the fact that any Albertan (even urban ones)balks at how much money has been blown already, but this riding isnt filled with many angry farmers or hunters, so it's a non issue. It's essentially the same as previous elections here - cheerleaders on both major sides (Cons. and Libs.) and the rest of the riding votes strategically here(and negatively!):
-People vote Cons. to take down the Liberals
-People vote Liberal to make sure all of Alta. isn't Cons.
-People vote NDP/Green because they couldn't stand to vote for the front running evils and hold their noses like others.
Other ridings may not have as much of a "stragetic" voting flavour as in the previous 2 elections, but here its the same old thing.
13 12 05 youngaltavoter
The Handgun ban could helps the Liberals in this urban riding. Many voters in this region don't own a gun and crime has been on the rise. There was support for the gun registry here, watch for that support to continue to the handgun ban.
13 12 05 Jason
Dan Lynch - The proposed handgun ban will not affect Liberal fortunes in Alberta. While many, mostly rural, Albertans strongly oppose gun control these people are mostly staunch conservatives who would never vote Liberal anyways. Many swing voters in Edmonton would support tighter gun control. I stand by my earlier prediction that Edmonton-centre will elect a Cabinet Minister, either the Liberal Deputy PM or a Conservative Defence Minister.
08 12 05 Dan Lynch
The recent handgun ban announcement by the Liberals will likely make it much harder for a Liberal to be elected in Alberta, especially one who only ever wins by such narrow margins.
05 12 05 Bear and Ape
We've always predicted that Landslide Annie would lose, but we have always been proven wrong on that point. Besides that she always seems to win, we think she'll take it this time pretty much due to her popularity and the more progressive nature of this riding in comparison to other nearby ridings. Hawn may be a bit too much of a hawk for this riding.
12 12 05 Aman Hayer
This seat will be the only seat in Alberta going Liberal. I know it always comes close and people always say she is going to lose; but Edmontions will always let this seat go Liberal as long as the Libearls look like they are going to win the election. My opinion in is that people in Edmonton would like to have at least one person representing them in the governing party so Ann McLean is the lucky candidate.
05 12 05 AltaVoter
I'm responding to the article by MJL about the poll from Pollara. I have contacted Pollara and was unable to find the said study showing that younger Edmonton-Centre voters go Conservative. I can tell you as a young voter from downtown Edmonton and having worked both federally and provincially for the Liberals, that younger downtown residents of this riding overwhelming support Liberals. It's a fact that younger voters are socially progressive.
As a side note, I have never had Laurie Hawn show up at my building, which is a large downtown highrise and when I went to one of his 'election rallies' any inclination to vote Conservative fell out. The socially progressive voters of the downtown area (124st - 97st to 97ave - 111ave) will fail to the Liberals. Anne is popular and well known...I will stick with my Liberal prediction.
03 12 05 Adam
Any of you that are predicting the seat will go with the government are crazy. The Cons will not form government. End Stop. To suggest otherwise is ludicrous! The conservatives certainly have a chance at taking this riding and sweeping the province, but they've been railing full steam ahead against McLellan for how many elections now? McLellan will have to fight for it, but she'll likely win her riding.
02 12 05 punditman
Well, seeing as the 27 other seats in this riding are Conservative locks, my bet is the Alberta wing of the Tories are going to pour everything they have into this one riding. My feeling is they will emerge victorious. McLellan always manages to hang by a thread, but having run before, Laurie Hawn has the name recognition. As well, people are no longer buying the hidden agenda argument, and there is more anger with the Liberals. 721 votes is not by any means a tall order, and I think McLellan's number could be up this time.
30 11 05 Smokin Gun
As an Edmonton-Centre and centrist type voter, this will be an interesting riding. Chances are I will park my vote outside of the top 2 (Lib/Con). Why?
McLellan is actually a very poor constituency MP, perhaps that is because so many people want to have her ear. Liberals taste funny to the average Albertan voter in general, but this is a centre-left ideological riding with many students and gays/lesbians who think leftish. Alot of people hold their noses and pick Anne because they consider a dithering, poorly adminsitered government better than a regressive one to these stakeholders (Cons). 12 years is a long time to have this as the "lesser evil" though.
Most people don't take the time to get to their local candidates, but if they did they would realize Laurie Hawn is an incredibly poor fit to represent this constituency. His ideologies resonate with a majority of people in many Alberta ridings, but this isnt rural alberta. He may still win, but dare I say this if they had someone like a Tim Uppal or Rahim Jaffer (without the scandals) someone who can present themselves as moderate and identifiable it could be advantage Cons.. But the Conservatives don't think about strategy, especially when selecting and placing candidates - never have and likely never will . I used to hold a conservative membership, and many of the posts I see trumping the cons up here are insiders and political geeks within that party who cant see objectivity if it smacked them in the face.
In Alberta you will always have the anti-Liberal "Arrogant easterners who rule like their entitled to it" vote, and just for that Hawn gets a solid 30-35% and it will lead to a close race. Its just funny though, that the provincial Conservatives have ruled for 40 years and could be considered an arrogant clique that rules like they are entitled to it themselves -just ask any provincial employee. The difference is the people that whine about "Eastern" rule are the same people that have dominated "Alberta" rule...People don't like their own hypocrisies pointed out to them though.
Winner: McLellan or Hawn by a nose.
30 11 05 L.O.
Anne's been through the ringer. As often as not when the opposition came a grilling on adscam and general accountability items, it was between her and Reg Alcock and Stephen Owen that all the fire was hurled. It wasn't a smart strategy if Paul Martin wanted to break into Western Canada. . . he should not have tried to make generally more popular and pure westerners take the brunt of the blows on this. Then again, Chretien did the same thing to her on the 2000 times over budget firearms registry.
Anne's seat always hangs in the balance. As I've already mentioned elsewhere, this riding will not be helped if current support trends continue. Anne's seat was a big part of that 22% that the Liberals got from Alberta in 2004. As of Nov 29's Ipsos, that's down to 17%. That's enough to knock Anne down considerably in teh face of a tory candidate that gained even national media coverage in the meantime. He's also going to benefit from a 3 point climb over 2004 results if that trend holds for the next 50+ days . . .
29 11 05 Liberty Canada
If it appears the Libs will get in, Landslide Annie the deputy PM will survive. If it looks like Harper will be moving into 24 Sussex, they will turf Annie to make way the new defense minister Laurie Hawn.
That simple. Edmonton centre will make sure it has a place in cabinet.
29 11 05 MJL
Somebody has argued that this riding has an increasing number of young adults, a factor that favours the Liberals. This is actually incorrect - according to the latest Pollara poll (and others I'm too lazy to cite) young adults are actually the one age demographic where the Conservatives edge out the Liberals.
Anne McLellan will give a good fight, however, and, as Kilgour is gone by the wayside, more resources will be available to prop her up. I'm leaning towards a Conservative win, but I've been wrong on that score for a long time.
29 11 05 John
While Edmonton Centre has been close for the last three elections, I figure Anne McLellan will pull this one off again.
I lived in the riding for eleven years, and only recently moved out of the riding.
Anne does a lot of work keeping her name in front of the voters through regular constituency mailings. I was regularly pulling these out of my mailbox.
Add to that, she is deputy PM, which gives here added press coverage and name recognition.
01 12 05 SM
Anne McLellan ne devrait pas passer, les conservateurs vont concentrer toutes leur énergies dans ce comté qui est gagnable. De plus cela ferait mal au Parti Libéral.
26 11 05 Mike
As many resources the Liberals will put into this riding to secure Anne's vicotry, the Conservatives will do the same to ensure her loss. This seems like the only riding that has potential to stop a Conservative sweep in the province, and thus, the most time and energy will be put here. I'm still predicting it to go Conservative because Laurie Hawn is no longer an unknown candidate after the running the last election, and he is bound to catch up on the 900 votes he lost by last time. I think one could only make a proper prediction for this riding on the last day of the election. Any tiny sway in the general campaign could completely shift the outcome of the riding, and two months prior to the actual date, it would be impossible to know what the election has in store. But as for now: Cons: 45% Lib 43%
18 11 05 RWR
For years, Anne's demise has been predicted. For years, the pundits have been wrong. As a Conservative, myself, it pains me to say this, but she will hold. Those who have said that the Liberal Party will not allow her to fall are right. Prediction: Lib 45%, Con 43%, NDP 10%, Green 2%.
19 10 05 Mr Paul Griffin
Whether or not we like it, the fact of the matter is the Liberals are not going to let the Deputy Prime Minister lose her seat. Anne will win this riding, yet again.
17 10 05 youngaltavoter
Anne MacLellan won last election in the midst of the Sponsorship scandal and picked up votes. Edmonton-Centre's demography is changing to a more young electorate that traditionally vote Liberal. Edmonton-Centre voters also understand the importance of having a Cabinet Minister as MP and the value to the city and the Province. As well, voters from this riding are generally dislike social conservativism and Harper has been making too many blunders on that one. All in all, I think Anne will win...it will be close and possibly pick up more votes.
02 10 05 hatman
This one is really a toss-up, and depends on whether the Conservatives have more momentum come election time. I wouldn't be surprised if "landslide" Annie wins this one again, but I am predicting she won't. Either way it will be close. Just remember, with Kilgour gone in Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont, the Liberals could lose this one a la domino affect.
15 08 05 AltaVoter
This riding is going to go Grit.
Anne McLellan always seems to sneak by in the polls and even under the fire of the Sponsorship Scandal, managed to pick up votes. Edmonton-Centre voters always vote strategically and Anne is a high profile minister. I think she is going to come out of this with a narrow win, but a win none the less.
Edmonton-Centre voters are too distrustful of social conservatives. Especially now with the increasing young vote in the downtown core(which is stereotypically liberal)
11 07 05 Nick Boragina
I am going to change my earlier prediction to too close too call. When I earlier called this for the Tories, they were first in the polls, and had about a 7 point edge. Today, the polls are showing the exact opposite. I hope that a 14 point swing is justification enough for me to do this. I still maintain that no other ridings will go grit though.
09 06 05
This is definitely too close to call. It ultimately depends on which side has the smarts. Landslide Annie is a well respected cabinet minister and Deputy Prime Minister. She is a strong voice for this riding, and she can definitely defend herself and her party in Parliament. If the Conservatives continue to play Laurie Hawn here, she will win because she is scandal free and well respected. Yet, if the Conservatives choose to play a strong, charismatic candidate here, McLennan's tower may tumble to the sea of Conservative wins.
06 06 05 Kelly
It would seem that the 8700 (16%) people who voted for neither the Libs or the Cons will decide McLellan's fate. Her personal popularity vs the broader conservative support are pretty much a wash. If those that voted NDP, Green, et al move their support in any significant way it will tip the tide and ultimately decide things. Conservative support will remain at 40% while either NDP/Green support will move Liberal or disenfranchised Libs will move left giving the seat to the CPC.
27 05 05 W. McBeath
I have posted on the last three times that this riding will go Conservative - in my opinion, the fact that she is facing the same Conservative opponent for two elections in a row (something that has never happened before), I believe that this seat will go Conservative.
Do not expect either side to win with a runaway victory, but I think the odds have tipped in favour of Laurie Hawn and the Conservatives.
Strong candidate, strong campaign team, and support from the entire province to eliminate Alberta's one remaining Liberal.
22 05 05 Mr. McLachlan
Maclellan managed to hang on by 721 votes in 2004; a victory that I feel she will be unable to duplicate in the next election. Like it or not, she will likely fail to keep her head above water this time -thus becoming engulfed by the sea of Alberta conservatism.
22 05 05
This is definitely too close to call. I think the odds are against McLennan, but after all, she is the "magical" Landslide Annie who seems to pull it off everytime. Conservative voters are trying to push Harper into government, supporting my statement above about the odds being aganst McLennan. But who knows? Anne might just amazingly squeak it off again!
14 05 05 Nick
Anne McLellan will keep her seat, as the scandal has not really affected Western Canada. As has been mentioned in previous submissions, if the Libs hold on their polling numbers in Alberta, she will pull it off again and be re-elected. I also agree with the fact that since she is deputy prime minister, she will be re-elected. It seems here as well that the people of this riding are voting for the person, not the party.
11 05 05 Olivier Leclerc
Ce n'est pas la première fois que la députée Libéral de ce comté est placé dans une situation critique, c'est presque une tradition. À l'image de plusieurs figure de proue qui se présente dans des circonscriptions difficile car il s'agit de leur patelin, je suis convaincu que même si cela seras encore une fois difficile elle réussiras à finir en tête au photo finish.
09 05 05 Robert Daniel
Whoever R.J.W. is, they made a very astute observation here: some ridings are indeed bellweather ridings. On that basis, although my gut instinct is that Anne MacLellan will slither in again, I have to agree. The thing is, it will be a Liberal victory nation-waide again - and I'm not even ruling out a slightly increased one - and therefore this riding might go Liberal with it. Acknowledging R.J.W.'s observation, maybe it would be good for the administrators of this noble project to add a new category for people to predict with, as well as for the project's official prediction: "BELL-WEATHER", i.e. "This riding's result will correspond to the national result." In which case, I think Carolyn Bennett in my former riding of St. Paul's should be in that category, rather than predicted as a Liberal win.
07 05 05 RJW
I'm of the view that whichever party wins government will win this seat. It'll be extremely tight again regardless of which way it goes. McLellan has achieved stature here and this is probably the most Liberal area of Alberta, but it's still Alberta and the Tories will have a shot.
06 05 05 B.A.S.
Anne's first win (1993) was a result of anger at the PC government of the day. Her succeeding wins have been because the people of the riding were smart enough to keep a cabinet minister in office.
With a very real chance that the Liberals will lose power it is unlikely she can pull it off again...
06 05 05 Alberta Grit
The Grits will not let this riding fall. Expect them to pump all their manpower into this riding to keep Anne in. It'll be close, but expect Anne back in parlament after the election
05 05 05 Blake
So long as Laurie Hawn wins the tory nomination, the seat is his. Anne McLellan managed to distance herself from Chretien, but with Martin being implicated in Adscam there's no way that Anne can avoid being lumped in with her caucus. The "Alberta needs a voice in government" argument fly anymore, because the Liberals will not BE the government after this election.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
I think many of my fellow liberals would like to dream and imagine that annie can win here, but the reality is that she does not stand a chance.
M.Lunn is right when he says that Albertans want at least one liberal, but the reality is with first past the post, I dont think she can ride that anywhere. Like the 20 or so year stretch from Stanfield to Mulroney, the tories will win all the ridings in the province, including this one. No landslide this time.
04 05 05 Doon
As of right now, still a Lib hold. A weak conservative candidate will be fielded (Hawn/Yewchuk), but if the Liberals slip a few more percent this seat will not be theirs anymore.
03 05 05 JC
Anne will win, she has continuously been on the verge of being defeated and trust me she would have been last time when Sponsorship was at it's peak, as long as the liberals retain their polling numbers in Alberta like they were in the last election, they will be fine. Anne will again defy skeptics and win once again.
03 05 05 Jeffy
Although I hate to say it, being a Liberal-supporting city-slicker from hated Ontario, but Anne McLellan's number is up. She's toast this time - which is too bad, considering that she has been a good performer in a lacklustre cabinet. Unfortunately, she'll be judged because she's a Liberal, and they are about as out-of-favour in Alberta right now as a pair of skis in the middle of July. Look to see her appointed to the Senate if the Liberals squeak out another minority, or perhaps an ambassadorship.
03 05 05 Jason
A big factor in "Landslide Annie's" ability to hold off the Conservatives since 1993 is the fact that she is guaranteed a senior cabinet position in a Liberal government. If election week polls predict a Liberal government, Ms. McLellan will be part of it. If not, this seat will complete a Conservative sweep of Alberta.
02 05 05 Initial
Anne McLellan is not going down without a fight. Most recent polls show the liberals have gained in Alberta and across the country. The Deputy Prime Minister will not be defeated, she represents the government in Alberta and albertans know this. Anne McLellan will definitely pull through once again.
02 05 05
This is a bellweather riding... I think that at this point - this riding is still very up in the air. Numerous factors to think about in this Liberal area of Edmonton. Will the NDP run a strong candidate? Who will the Conservatives run? The liberals are starting to bounce nack in the polls, even in Alberta. McLellan has a lot of money and an experienced team behind her, so although I think right now the CPC has the edge, I not willing to count McLellan out... it will be a very close race, probably within 1,000 votes if we have a spring election.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
I think Anne McLellan might still pull it off. Most Albertans want at least one member sitting on the government side, so if polls show the liberals headed for another minority government, she will be re-elected. However if the Conservatives rebound and it looks like they will win, then she will lose her seat. Although a conservative riding relative to the rest of Canada, this is definitely more liberal than anywhere else in Alberta. Last Provincial election, this riding did not elect a single PC MLA and the two who previously held this ridings within Edmonton Centre both lost. In fact the 2001 election is the only election in the last 20 years where this riding has elected PC MLAs, so it is not as conservative as Calgary or Rural Alberta.
02 05 05 B
Anne Mclellan has performed well and will continue to be in cabinet. Her riding votes strategically and knows it is good for the province to have representation in government. Laurie Hawn is an unattractive candidate and cannot sell the Con brand.
26 04 05 Travis
With Alberta polling at 70% for the Conservative party, and Laurie Hawn running for the Conservative nomination I can not see Anne McLellan even though she is the deputy PM to hold on. This will be the last seat to be called in Alberta on election night, but it will go Conservative.
26 04 05 IGB
I think this may just be the election where Anne McLellan's luck finally runs out. Look for a Conservative victory here.

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