Federal Election - 2006
6:45 PM 09/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:50 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Calgary Centre-North

Margaret Peggy Askin
John Chan
First Peoples National
Doug Dokis
Michael Falconar
Canadian Action
James S. Kohut
Mark MacGillivray
Matthew Moody
Jim Prentice

Constituency Profile

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Jim Prentice

2004 Result:
Jim Prentice
Cathy McClusky
John Chan
Mark MacGillivray
Michael Falconar
Margaret Peggy Askin

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 j. campbell
In reference to "Westerner"'s observation of 12 Jan,just a comment to point out that CFB personnel very often are registered to vote in a riding other than where they stationed.
09 01 06 Sean
This riding will not go green for the following reasons. It is true that in the last election the green party had one of its best results in this riding and in the city of Calgary, however, they still finished a distant 4th. The Conservatives got around 55% of the vote in the last election and with their support increasing it is likely that this riding will remain solidly Conservative. Some green supporters in Calgary and parts of Alberta vote green as a protest. I know of many people who disliked all of the major parties so they decided to vote green not because they agree with their policies but because they knew that they would not win (although I know there was a large number of true green supporters in Alberta). This riding will remain a Conservative hold
07 01 06 Green Supporter
Calgary Center North was the 3rd highest riding for Green Party support in Canada. The southern half of this riding went to David Swann in the provincial election. David while running for the Liberal party provincially is a known small "g" green. He has supported Kyoto and opposed the war in Iraq and come out in favour of a number of environmental issues. The Green Party has used the Kensington area as its stomping ground for the last 4 years and has a regional office in the riding. There are more active Green Party members in Calgary Center North than any other riding in Calgary. Calgary is the second strongest city for Green support in Canada and Calgary Center North is at the heart of Calgary's Green Party support.
Jim Prentice acknowledged his concern about the Green Party by bringing the environmental minister in for a town hall prior to the election and by releasing a brochure with the word environment used consistently throughout.
19 12 05 Aman Hayer
If anyone other than Jim Prentice was running here, the Liberal Party could have a good shot at this riding. This is a traditionally Progressive Conservative riding, and like some of the other traditional PC ridings they have turned to the Liberal party. But Prentice is one of the former PC party members, and is more socially liberal on most issues, so for that reason he will keep most of the traditional PC support in his pocket. Combine that with the growing unpopularity of the Provincial Conservative Party the Liberals would have a good shot at this riding. The Alberta Liberal Party was able to win 3 of the 11 seats in this region (these were the three of the four ridings in Calgary, which they put most of their attention on the other on being Calgary McCall). While the provincial Libearls did not attain any more seats, but they were able to get a sizeable amount of support and did put the Tory Candidates in an uneasy situation, including Calgary Elbow MLA Ralph Klein (who preformed the worst of the all party leaders which won there seat).
The Liberals could in theory win this riding with Prentice if they could get a star canidate such has former police chief Christine Silverberg (who was considering running in the 2004 election) or the popular former Mayor Al Duerr (who is a liberal), they could win this riding. Then again with Duerr they could win a riding just on his popularity.(he is consider the most popular mayor in Calgary's History http://www.calgary.ca/DocGallery/BU/cityclerks/cmayors.pdf)
29 10 05 Bear and Ape
Okay, the nut-jobs are starting to come out and make their postings known. First we have Conservatives winning in Windsor-Tecumseh, now we have Liberals winning in Calgary. So the posting by Paul makes two big claims as to why Jim Prentice is going to lose. 1) Every last gay and gay right supporter will vote against the CPC. 2)Every last social conservative will vote against Jim Prentice. Net result Jim Prentice will be elected out and the Liberals will win. First of all Prentice won by over 17 000 votes. There IS NOT 17 000 gays and lesbians in that riding. But for the sake of argument, lets say there is. Why would they vote against Prentice when HE SUPPORTED THEM?!?!?!? He went against his party and did what he thought was right. That is a man of which this community would want in the CPC. Who cares if there is another Liberal, NDP or BQ who is gay-friendly, there already is plenty of that in those parties. It is in the Conservative party that gays need to have their supporters. You do not betray the ones who support you. Now as for social conservatives, who else will they vote for? The Liberal party that introduced SSM? The NDP (*snicker* *snicker*) or some fringe party? No, they will once again throw their vote behind the CPC because that is the party most likely and best represent their interests. This will be despite Prentice. Besides Prentice has been high profile, well liked, hard working, etc etc etc. Read: A good candidate. As well in cities people vote more for parties, not for the candidates. So to end this diatribe, Prentice wins easily, Paul needs a clue.
27 10 05 M. Lunn
I agree the Conservatives are in trouble in some of their traditional spots, especially British Columbia, but this is Alberta, which always goes Conservative no matter what. Even if many are Red Tories here, people still haven't forgiven the liberals for the National Energy Program and the concern of NEP II, which won't happen, but many in Alberta think it will, will be enough to ensure all the Conservative MPs are re-elected. This is an urban riding so people vote mainly for party rather than person, and besides the social conservatives tend to be more in rural alberta and the outerlying parts of the city. Also most of the gay population probably didn't vote conservative last time around, so if he could win by 30 points, there is no way the liberals can overcome this. Even though I would love to see the liberals pick up a Calgary riding, it ain't going to happen anytime soon.
25 10 05 Paul
I expect a close race... and a Liberal upset here.
Homosexuals will massively reject the Conservatives even though the local MP voted for SSM. They just can't stand the party. At the same time those who are more socially conservative will not vote for Prentice. His vote for SSM is a recipe for political disaster... lose tons of social conservative voters while not winning a single homosexual / homosexual agenda supporter vote. No, this won't be the election in which the Tories will sweep Alberta like in the old Standfield/Clark days.
16 07 05 hatman
It's hard to find any liberal areas in Calgary, but this region is as close as it will get. And who better to represent them, than Jim Prentice. Nevermind his support of same-sex marriage- who are the focus on the family types going to vote for here? The NDP? ha! This was the riding Joe Clark won, and almost went to the Liberals in 1997. But, the right is united now, so the Tories shall prevail of course!
02 06 05 Alberta Grit
I'd invite anyone who thinks the Tory’s are not going to win here to spend a week in this riding. All right, I campaigned here for the Alberta Liberals in 2004, and I’ll tell you the only reason we won here was because most APC supporters stayed home because they were so fed up with Klein. That, plus the fact that Kevin Taft, leader of the Alberta Liberals, is probably the most popular Liberal leader ever in Calgary. However Martin isn’t Taft, in fact it could be possible that Dithers is less popular than even Chretien! Honestly, the media portrays Martin as the one who was pulling all the strings of the scandal, and Calgarians believe it. And no true-blue Calgarian will ever vote NDP. All those Dipper votes come from displaced British Columbians and Saskatchewanians.
Prentice will win even the homosexual vote because of his stance on SSM. The only way the Tories will lose in this riding would be if Craig Chandler won the candidacy (which it is rumored, and which the Sun is praying for) Then, and only then, would another party win this seat, because the right-wing, homophobic, Christian extremists even scare Calgarians. And guess whom the victory would fall to? The eco-capitalist, slightly social conservative Green candidates that the GPC is so fond of nominating in Alberta. Infact, the best thing that could happen to the Greens would be a Chandler win!
My prediction: Prentice 65%, GPC 20%, LPC 15%, and NDP 5%
17 05 05 Matt
Well I agree Jim Prentice will be hard to beat, I think it should be a lot closer this time. Regions like Calgary Varsity voted liberal in the last provincial election because of wavering support for the provincial conservative party. I think this will probably play a role in the next federal election.
16 05 05 Keith
This riding was easily Conservative last time around, and even if the NDP picked up 100% of the Liberal vote, they still wont win it. Not against Jim Prentice.
That said, he is not a future Prime Minister of Canada. I completely agree that once Harper steps down (possibly even this year if the Conservatives lose this election) it will be a former Tory who will take the leadership, that Tory will be from Central or Eastern Canada, not Alberta.
12 05 05 A.S.
Sure, one can predict NDP for Calgary C-N; just about anywhere else in English Canada, this'd qualify as an NDP-target sort of riding. But what this overlooks is a significant under-the-radar story of the 2004 election: a true split on the left. In Calgary, especially--though also throughout much of Alberta exclusive of Edmonton--the New Democrats, still in extended shell-shock from their 1993 federal-provincial evisceration, ran just about even with the Green Party. Calgary C-N, in fact, saw one of only three Green double-digit percentages in Canada (the others being Saanich-Gulf Islands and Victoria), with the NDP only slightly above. And the pattern carried through in Calgary in the subsequent provincial election. Why, in a city that's usually viewed as the hard-right ReformAllianceConservative heartland? Anything to do with Preston Manning sounding an "environmentalist" note lately? But of course, such a split only makes life easier for Jim Prentice...
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
Okay, who let this one out?!?! AN NDP win in Calgary? PLEASE! Jim Prentice is a high profile incumbant who will gain at Liberal expense (he is less conservative socially than other local MPs) and maintain the conservative vote because he is running for the conservatives. Let's keep this site to election predictions and not election hopes and wishes.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
Thanks for letting us know who the NDP candidate will be and I dont mean that sarcastically, but lets take a look for a minute at this riding. If the NDP were to get every liberal and Green vote, they'd still lose this riding by 6000 votes. Prentice, meanwhile, while a rookie to parliament, ran for PC leadership and finished second to MacKay. Beyond that, your assumptions are wrong, why would Liberals certainly fo NDP and not CPC. How are the greens "down" when all the polls I've seen show them holding steady or gaining votes? The Liberals are actually pretty stedy in Alberta, down about 5 points or so, the NDP still in third. Prentice will win again.
10 05 05 Kyle Simunovic
For anyone to think the NDP or any other party besides the conservatives will win this riding is crazy. I dont know what this person is thinking bu Jim Prentice will win this riding by far more then last time. Calgary Centre - North is one of the more "red tory" ridings in Alberta and Jim Prentice is that "red tory" (a proud one at that). Jims views on the social issues resignate for the people here. He will win by more then he did last time.
10 05 05 Observer
An NDP win in Calgary these days is as likely as a Conservative sweep of Toronto.
05 05 05 Mr. Paul Griffin
John Chan, who will be the NDP's acclaimed candidate on May 5, will be running again for the NDP in this riding. John captured a lot of votes in the last election, and many Liberal voter will head left to the NDP rather to the right and Jim Prentice. With the Green Party also going downhill, it is likely that John Chan and the NDP can capture many of their votes from the last election. John did an excellent campaign last election - his first time in politics, and will do an even better job when he becomes the first NDP MP from Calgary!
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Jim Prentice is the perfect fit for this riding notwithstanding what Craig Chandler and his other Christian-right wackos think. It is very right wing economically, which Jim Prentice is, but as an urban riding with a large gay community, it is socially progressive, so Jim Prentice's position on same-sex marriage won't hurt him at all. If he was for higher taxes then he might have some trouble. Besides this is Calgary so no matter who was the candidate, this would go Conservative. Jim Prentice has been a strong Indian Affairs Critic and would almost certainly be the Indian Affairs minister if the Conservatives win. He may be a future prime-minister since after Stephen Harper steps down, the party will probably want to choose someone from the PC side as opposed to the Alliance side next time around.

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