12:03 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:42 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg Centre
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Anna-Celestrya Carr
Gary Gervais
Pat Martin
Helen Sterzer
Ray St. Germain

Pat Martin

2004 Result:
Pat Martin
David Northcott
Robert Eng
Robin (Pilar) Faye
John M. Siedleski
Anna-Celestrya Carr
Douglas Edward Schweitzer

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 JB
Pat Martin in a walk. If he could beat Northcott by 3000 votes there is no way that St. Germain could even get close. Five or six thousand vote plurality will be no problem for Martin.
01 01 06 Bear and Ape
The NDP increasing irrelevent? Tell that to which ever party forms the minority and had to pander to their wishes. Tell that to the folks in BC, Saskatchewan and urban Ontario who are poised to elect several possible new NDP members. Tell that to the people of this riding who have been electing in Pat Martin for some time now. This is not 1988 and this is not going to be a Liberal pick up.
22 12 05 Big L Man
This is hallowed ground for the NDP - The home of J.S. Woodsworth and Stanley Knowles. Me thinks there is more to Jack Layton's visit with a major" campaign announcement, to this Riding in the middle of an election campaign than meets the eye. With the NDP becoming increasingly irrelevant in this campaign nationally, I think internal NDP polling is showing them something that causes them concern for this riding. The last time the national race became a two horse race with an irrelevant NDP was 1988, and the riding went Liberal.
16 12 05 WestViking
Although Mr. Schreyer will add interest to the election campaign, he has been away from active politics since 1979 and is not known to many of the middle aged and younger residents of the riding. In addition, the riding has been well served by Conservative James Bezan who won in 2004 by 8,200 votes over the nearest rival.
Schreyer is starting late and will draw a sympathy vote from some older residents who remember his time in local politics and from disenchanted Liberals who find Adscam a final stray, but not nearly enough to unseat incumbent Bezan
09 12 05 pace
Last year David Northcott, of Winnipeg Harvest, could not move this seat into the Liberal camp. Pat Martin is in tune with this riding, and it should not be close, even with Aboriginal entertainer Pat St. Germain carrying the Liberal colours.
24 11 05 Craig
Easy NDP hold. With the Liberals still reeling from Gomery and the Conservatives out of touch with local positions in this left-wing riding, Pat Martin should easily hold the seat. With the NDP up in the polls and the Liberals down, that should allow the NDP to open up an even larger margin of victory. Predicted results: NDP 55%, LIB 27%, CPC 13%, GRN 3%, others 2%.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a strong NDP area and with the Conservatives non-existent on the Northside of Winnipeg and the liberals declining in popularity, Pat Martin will be easily re-elected.

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