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||Andrew Van Oosten|
||Marsha Gail Kriss|
For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page
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||14 01 06
|Oracleresearch poll from Jan 11th specific to Timmins James Bay riding found a 10% between the NDP and the second place Liberals (46% NDP, 36% Liberals, and 17% Conservative). These numbers, coupled with the popularity of the incumbent MP Charlie Angus and relative weakness of second place Liberal candidate, will translate to a win for the NDP with an increased margin from last election in 2004.|
||12 01 05
|Charlie Angus will be re-elected by at least 2500 votes. Jack Layton's absense in this riding is a testament to how well they think they will do. The Riopelle brought up 3 big guns (including the PM in august) because he knows he needs a big boost.|
Graham will probabally do very well in places like Iroquois Falls, Cochrane and Kirkland Lake. This will result in the loss of many liberal votes paving the way for an NDP victory.
||09 01 06
|The repeated presence of Layton in the riding would indicate that the NDP internal polling is scaring them. (he has not been in the riding yet and was here twice last election). As well, the presence of big gun liberals would indicate that their internal polling is hopeful and we have not seen too many of these. Scientific?? no, but pause for thought? certianly. |
One last thought. I agree that the tainted water on the James Bay Coast issue is not an issue that will resonate in places like Timmins as much as one would think, but it has to be said that the James Bay coast ridings didnt go as solidly for Charlie as would have been thought. Presumably this will change this time.
Does the Liberal candidate have a little more appeal that last time's dinosaur? likely? But will Charlie more than make that up across the riding? I think so. As well, A slightly stronger Tory will siphon a bit from Angus in I. Falls, but will hurt the liberal in all other places.
Angus by 2000.
||14 12 05
|I am moving this back to too close to call. Since the Kashechewan Indian reserve water problems haven't seem to have been an election issue, I am not entirely sure Charlie Angus will hold the riding, although I will give him an 80% chance of holding the riding.|
||24 11 05
|Tough riding to predict. I'm not a fan of Charlie Angus at all but this riding seems to adore the man like he's the chocolate icing on a cake. |
With that said, this is going to be a tough race for him. Sure he's gotten himself some good press but will that resonate with the voters? Charlie only won last time because liberals voted for him to stop Ray Chenier. This time, the liberals have a stronger liking for their candidate and I don't see any separation there.
I think it is going to be a really close race and what will make the difference is how well the conservative candidate does. If it seems as though he's loosing support (that support will go liberal) then the liberals have this riding and Charlie Angus is done (lets have a party). Charlie Angus' only hope is that he can highlight what he's done and make voters believe it was worthwhile....on top of that he does have Gilles Bission again; the man behind the big orange election machine.
So its tough to call but im going to go out on a limb and predict a liberal pickup. PREDICTION: Liberal - 42%, NDP 39%, Conservative 13%, Other 6%.
I think that's pretty accurate.
||14 11 05
|Anyone who is basing their prediction on Kashechewan Indian Reserve and the problems there, is just wrong. Only 22% ish of the native population bothers to vote. This time won't be any different. Further, the general population of the riding doesn't seem to care. The Liberals only lost last time because of an unpopular candidate, and they didn't lose by much. Prediction this time - Libs 51%, NDP 40%, Cons 8%, Green 1%.|
||07 11 05
|Even though I have avoided making predictions on close ridings in Ontario due to the volality of the polls, I am now willing to move this to the NDP column. The reason, the Kashechewan Indian Reserve water problems. This is is right in the middle of the riding and considering this has a large First Nation community, I suspect that a large chunk who voted liberals last time on the view that Paul Martin would greatly improve things for First Nations will go NDP this time around. In fact, this may even hurt the liberals' chances in other ridings such as Churchill and Churchill River, which also have a large First Nations' community. The Conservatives likely won't gain anymore here than elsewhere in Ontario since any gains here will come primarily from the white community and those in the white community who are not greatly concerned about aboriginal issues as the Conservatives are unlikely to improve things for the First Nations and could even be worse if Tom Flanagan has a major influence on their policy.|
||28 10 05
|Any questions on whether or not Charlie Angus would be re-elected should be put to rest now with Kashechewan - located in this riding. With the Liberals' inaction on the issue and Angus bringing it front and centre in the House of Commons, Liberal-leaning voters will swing to him - in droves - in this riding. The Conservatives may also pick up some scattered votes from disgruntled Liberals who are also socially conservative, but that won't be a big factor. Predicted results: NDP 50%, CPC 25%, LIB 21%, GRN 4%.|
||17 09 05
|The Tories will not win this no matter who their candidate is. They may crack the 20% and possibly 25% mark if lucky, but this was one of their worse showings in Ontario and has generally been hostile territory for parties on the right. The Liberals could re-take this if they choose a strong candidate, but this is a pretty left leaning area and besides Charlie Angus has been a decent MP contrary to what others have said.|
||16 08 05
|Last post was the biggest pot of S-H-I-T!!! Lets pick it apart piece-by-piece:|
"Looks like the NDP has had some fun flooding this riding. Now lets jump in with some reality here."
The NDP floods everything, including their own egos so their is no surprise there!!
"Charlie Angus is completely useless however, there is no doubt Gilles Bisson's entire team of people will be running the show again thus."
True!! Bisson has been useless for the people of this riding. Hes been against everything that makes sense (including the privatization of the LCBO). I wouldn't give him too much weight...Charlie has his own people now; Watch out! ;)
"As well hes had tonnes of press with the entire Flag Pin "Scandal" (Oh my god! Their made in China) the media has made this guy out to be the saviour of everything. I would defiantly not count Charlie out just yet."
False, I wouldn’t count him in!! He’s definitely not going to do horrible but a second place finish is where I see him; practically in line with his political career....a prime exaple of a second rate politician.
"Robert Riopelle, the liberal candidate will have a strong team running his show not to mention their is a hardcore liberal base in this riding. The only issue with this guy is that he’s not "well-known" their were a lot better people as far as profile goes that could have carried the liberal banner."
I think you like to bullshit....this guy is going to kick ass (not that I want him to or anything, but do the people really have another option). And when it comes to his "well known" ness this guy made front page when Paul Martin, yes the Prime Minister Paul Martin came to town to party hardy!
"I think the conservative candidate trumps the liberal on profile (as far as challengers to the incumbent goes. Charlie Angus has the best face recognition). The question here is where do they get the support they need to knock charlie off. I think some of the liberal support will go conservative so they need to pull of some of Charlie's vote.
Ken Graham, the conservative candidate has a battle but (some may be shocked by this) I would not count him out either. Andrew Van Oosten (the conservative candidate last election) had no money, no organization and knocked on close to 100 doors the whole campaign and still got 16%. Ken's campaign will be much more organized, and will have a lot more cash. Ken is also a well known northern mayor with a history in the riding. He has a lot of credibility and knows a lot of people."
Okay heres the facts: The liberals are probabally polling somewhere in the 48%-58% range, the NDP behind by probabally $8%-10%, the conservatives will likely be seeing single digits. I see the election ending in probabally the same range....
"This is definitely a weird riding. What I'm getting from people is that its going to be a very close two-way race with the conservative candidate in a close third place. Those positions could change two. I know Riopelle has some friends high in the liberal party who will probably make a stop by the riding. Not to mention the regular sing song with Jack Layton. The one to watch with party visits though will be Ken Graham. I hear he has some links to the conservative deputy leader, the leader himself and some high profile conservative MP's."
Heres where it goes with riding visitors: Robert Riopelle obviously has some connections probabaly through his campaign staff, the Prime Minister has been here once and I wouldnt be surprised to see him here again alone with some Ministers. Charlie Angus, as you said, will likely have another sing song and perhaps another tea party with the elderly; I can see Jack coming up mutiple times again! Ken Graham has connections through his people, his campaign manager in specific, with that said the sky will fall before anyone "high profile" drops by.
"Its gunna be close friends. I think the local campaigns will be a factor but what will make the difference between a win or loss for all three candidates is their parties national campaign and how it fairs. I think if it appears to be a liberal majority you will see Riopelle pick it up for sure. A liberal or conservative minority Charlie has the best chance and with a conservative minority or a conservative majority Ken could pull it off. Call this riding too close to call until the night before the election. Even then it might still be too close. If their is not a real consensus go with the incumbent (god forbid)."
Its going to be close?! NOT!! The only way this riding will stay NDP is if the Conservatives appear to be winning a minority or a small majority. If the liberals are posed to win in any way shape or form Riopelle is in.....as for Mr. Graham the only way he could win is if we saw a Conservative sweep.
||23 06 05
|Looks like the NDP has had some fun flooding this riding. Now lets jump in with some reality here.|
Charlie Angus is completely useless however, there is no doubt Gilles Bisson's entire team of people will be running the show again thus. As well hes had tonnes of press with the entire Flag Pin "Scandal" (Oh my god! Their made in China) the media has made this guy out to be the saviour of everything. I would defiantly not count Charlie out just yet.
Robert Riopelle, the liberal candidate will have a strong team running his show not to mention their is a hardcore liberal base in this riding. The only issue with this guy is that he’s not "well-known" their were a lot better people as far as profile goes that could have carried the liberal banner. I think the conservative candidate trumps the liberal on profile (as far as challengers to the incumbent goes. Charlie Angus has the best face recognition). The question here is where do they get the support they need to knock charlie off. I think some of the liberal support will go conservative so they need to pull of some of Charlie's vote.
Ken Graham, the conservative candidate has a battle but (some may be shocked by this) I would not count him out either. Andrew Van Oosten (the conservative candidate last election) had no money, no organization and knocked on close to 100 doors the whole campaign and still got 16%. Ken's campaign will be much more organized, and will have a lot more cash. Ken is also a well known northern mayor with a history in the riding. He has a lot of credibility and knows a lot of people.
This is definitely a weird riding. What I'm getting from people is that its going to be a very close two-way race with the conservative candidate in a close third place. Those positions could change two. I know Riopelle has some friends high in the liberal party who will probably make a stop by the riding. Not to mention the regular sing song with Jack Layton. The one to watch with party visits though will be Ken Graham. I hear he has some links to the conservative deputy leader, the leader himself and some high profile conservative MP's.
Its gunna be close friends. I think the local campaigns will be a factor but what will make the difference between a win or loss for all three candidates is their parties national campaign and how it fairs. I think if it appears to be a liberal majority you will see Riopelle pick it up for sure. A liberal or conservative minority Charlie has the best chance and with a conservative minority or a conservative majority Ken could pull it off.
Call this riding too close to call until the night before the election. Even then it might still be too close. If their is not a real consensus go with the incumbent (god forbid).
||28 05 05
|Which cloud have all of you been living on for the past year. Since Angus has become M.P. nothing is moving in TJB. The flow of Federal money to the riding has continued, mostly thanks to pushing on behalf of Mayor and Council, as well as some influential Liberals in the riding. Does Angus stand a chance to win again... perhaps. It would certainly help if he moved into the riding and got a good feel of what is actually happening in this riding. |
Those who are predicting a conservative victory here are living in a dream world. It's always good to have lofty dreams, but at some point, a good dose of reality needs to be ingested. C'mon people... The PC party in Timmins is supported by a bunch of Liberal business men who flip flop back and forth to one party or another depending on which Minister or Cabinet member is in town.
Angus won this riding by less than 1000 votes last time around. To be perfectly honest, this one is up in the air. The Libs will have another tough time being up against Gilles Bisson's lean green election fighting machine. I predict the Liberals by an even slimmer margin of votes but I'll hold off on putting the Liberal logo next to my name until an actual campaign gets rolling and I get a better sense of the mood of the riding!
||27 05 05
|Si on peut difficilement donner Ottawa-Centre au NPD, il n'en va pas de même pour Timmins-James Bay. Angus pourra compter sur son vis-à-vis néo-démocrate Bisson et une machine électorale assez bien rodée. À bien y penser, avant de donner Trinity-Spadina au NPD, je donnerais beaucoup plus facilement Timmins-James Bay. Angus augmentera même sa majorité lors des prochaines élections. Victoire NPD.|
||17 05 05
|I dont think I've ever made an entire prediction just to counter the claims of other predictors, but with people predicting tory wins here, I cant hold my tounge.|
First of all, and I could research this, but I dont think that a tory has won here, federally or provincially, in a century or more! The NDP meanwhile, does have a history of winning here. This is not just some vote to keep some MP out, the NDP has a history here, and can hold on. It does not matter if the tory is a well known mayor, etc, party votes matter here. Where is the proof that the NDP MP has been "losing support" and even if this is true, will he really lose the thousands of votes he needs to be defeated by a tory?
I'd like to take Kelsey up in his $1000 bet that the tories will win, but betting on elections is illigal. I know it'd be the easiest money I ever made if it was not illigal though.
Alot of predictors give numbers, but they dont explain how the tory will pick up another 10,000 votes from nowhere, so sorry to the tory predictors here, but I am calling this one for the NDP, and I dont expect to be wrong
||14 05 05
|The new Wendy Lill, Charlie Angus is a star. For him to lose now would be bittersweet; for him to have won at all only fortifies him--it not only defied the Layton NDP "urban party" stereotype, it bridged the gap (through Angus's own background in the 80s NOW-Mag-friendly Toronto music/cultural scene). Re the Tories here, boundary changes actually render Timmins-James Bay less of an absolute black hole than before--solely within the added Timiskaming part, 2004 brought a 3-way marginal tally--but it says something that in the old Confederation of Regions redneck stronghold of Englehart, the very un-rednecky Charlie Angus drew even with the Tories, with the Liberals in the basement! Now, *that's* grassroots for you. Less reason to vote Liberal this time.|
||13 05 05
|Trust me up here in Ontario's North Charlie Angus is well know well like and well on his way to making this one of the safest NDP seats in Canada. His support in the James Bay Coastal towns is overwhelming. His action on issues of education alone assure him of an overwhelming majority of votes. His personal appeal in the Timmins area make this a lock.|
||11 05 05
||Scott "the truth"|
|How can anyone possibly predict a conservative win in Timmins-James Bay???!!!|
Just look at the history of this area, the old ridings, the population and one should see that this is one of the least conservative areas in Canada. The only time the Timmins area has had a conservative MP was in the 1984 Mulroney sweep where there was almost a 3-way tie and Aurele Gervais won with only about 37% of the votes in the old riding of Timmins-Chapleau. Now having Timmins-James Bay totally eliminates any chance of the conservatives getting more than 25% of the votes here during an across-canada sweep. Why can someone think that the Conservatives can "slip up the middle?" This new conservative party is not popular in Northern Ontario. If you look at the voting traditions of Timmins and surrounding areas, found at www.parl.gc.ca voters tend to vote in Liberal MPs during Liberal governments and NDP MPs during Conservative governments. Charlie Angus is very safe at this point and has nothing to lose. He is not part of the government and has not angered voters. People tend to overlook the demographics of this area as well. Large francophone and aboriginal populations DO NOT vote conservative. The conservative party of today is not the Progressive Conservative Party of 1984 which was very pro-french-canadian (even attracted separatists in Québec) and could win seats across Canada.
Charlie Angus has nothing to lose because he can relate to the average person in this area and might become the federal equivalent of Gilles Bisson, our MPP who would never lose. I am not endorsing anyone but believe that Angus will easily win unless there is an amazing Liberal surge in support across Canada and they win a majority government. (not likely) I am by the way probably going to vote Liberal if Yves Malette runs. Like someone else said, TJB is always either Liberal or NDP for certain....this time it appears the NDP will increase votes if the Liberal woes continue.
||11 05 05
||Bear and Ape|
|We were itching for a fight and it looks like some Conservatives wearing rose-coloured glasses have given us the oppertunity! Some even have alot of money to throw around (Kelsey, would you like to bet that the NDp will win in Crowfoot too? We could use the money). There is something like an 8000 vote margin between the Conservative candidate and the NDP candidate last year, what makes anyone thing that will be changed this year. The Conservative may be popular in his town but this is a HUGE riding and there are many towns far from his, where he's not as well known. He may win big in his immediate area but elsewhere he is just a conservative (and in northern Ontario Conservative = bad). So Angus may not have been a spectacular MP, so what? His closest rival will be a Liberal. Yes boys and girls, a scandal-tainted Liberal. This gives him a very big edge. He's not out of the woods yet, but he's better off at winning than any Conservative is.|
||09 05 05
|Angus is headed for a very comfortable victory. He has that man of the people quality that we get every so often in politicians. Even the very conservative mayor of Kirkland Lake (His nemisis during the Toronto Garbage nastiness a few years back) has come out saying that he will vote for Charlie. People of all political stripes seem to like this guy and like his 'fighter' rep. Will he be hurt by a local favorite running for the Conservatives in Iroquois Falls? Sure. But he will also do far better in every part of the riding than he did last time. Watch for big gains in the agricultural south, Cochrane, the aboriginal communities in the north and in Timmins itself.|
||08 05 05
|I see this riding going conservative again. There are three reasons:|
1) Conservative candidate is well known and respected.
2) Incumbent has done nothing to help this riding or promote northern ontario as he promised during the last campaign.
3) NDP supporters will bleed to Liberals. Liberal support will bleed to conservatives and they will slid through the middle.
Predicted result: CON 34%, NDP 32%, LIB 31%, REST 3%
||08 05 05
|NDP will struggle to hold on here and its going to be tough to determine where their vote will go. Alot of people voted NDP last election to stop Ray Chenier the liberal candidate. I see a conservative win with mid thirtys percentage. The NDP will get somewhere just under the conservatives and the NDP will just be behind hte conservatives by 200 votes or so. I'll put $1000.00 bucks on it. This riding tends to swing either way and the NDP and the Liberals have tonnes of things working against them right now; thats why i predict a conservative pick up.|
||07 05 05
|This one is going back to the Liberals this time.|
The problem facing a lot of "newbies" from a year ago is that this election is going to come down to "the record." Now this means a lot of things to a lot of different people, but for freshmen MPs they are going to have to run on their record.
I think Mr. Angus' problem is that he doesn't really have a strong record and that his issues don't really resonate with his constituents.
||06 05 05
|I just can't believe that somebody could possibly predict a conservative victory for Timmins-James Bay. Are you out of your mind!?!? I have said before on this site for both federal and Ontario elections: In Timmins-James Bay it is either Liberal or NDP. Look at past election results and look at the population of this electoral district. Francophone and aboriginal populations do NOT support the conservatives here as in the rest of Canada. Most anglophones here do not support them as well. The conservative candidate will be lucky to get even 15-20% of the vote no matter what his/her profile. I cannot make the call concerning who will win because we do not know who for sure will be running. I do know that the winning candidate will be either Liberal or NDP.|
||05 05 05
|The Conservatives don't stand a chance at winning this riding. Northern Ontario maybe against the gun registry and opposed to same-sex marriage, but they don't support the free market policies of the Conservatives, unless not this far north (They might win in Nippissing-Timiskaming and Parry Sound-Muskoka). This was Mike Harris' worse showing in 1999 where his party only got 13%. The liberals came in a close second, but with their numbers down, not to mention Charlie Angus has done a good job of bringing the concerns of his constituents to Ottawa in this largely neglected riding, so barring a major public opinion shift, he should be re-elected.|
||02 05 05
|Charlie Angus pulled out a narrow shocker last time - but it won't be close this time. AdScam has destroyed the Liberals and given the NDP and Conservatives new ammunition. As an incumbent, Angus is well-known and should win this one easily. Will the Liberals even hang on to second though? Predicted results: NDP 47%, LIB 25%, CPC 22%, GRN 5%, others 1%.|
||02 05 05
|The conservative candidate here is a well known mayor from a local municipality. Although he is not from the main urban part of the riding he knows many people and has spend over 40 years working in every corner of this area. The current NDP incumbent continues to waste time arguing about useless things (ie. flag pins) and has been loosing support since June 29, 2004. The liberals have a good contest going between a local councillor and a well-known lawyer. Depending on who wins this their chance may increase. Although I believe they will not be able to win this riding back. |
My prediction is that this will be a very close three way race with the conservative candidate coming out on top by about 3%-5%.