Update/Mise à jour:
2:17 PM 31/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:52 PM 05/05/2005
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Scarborough-Agincourt
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Libearl/libéral
Jim Karygiannis
Green/Vert
Casey Maple
Conservative/conservateur
Bill Redwood
NDP/NPD
David Robertson

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Jim Karygiannis

2004 Result/Résultats:
Jim Karygiannis
26400
Andrew Faust
8649
D'Arcy Palmer
4182
Tony J. Karadimas
1048
Wayne Yeechong
919

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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30 12 05 emily
Judging by the amount of signs up and the amount of material received at our door I am assured that the Karygiannis Machinery will again deliver a major win in Scarborough-Agincourt. There is absolutely no way that Bill REdwood will even come close to betting Karygiannis. Karygiannis a hard working Member of Parliament and very popular with his constituents has the grip of the riding.
He is very popular with the ethnic communities and attends all their functions and is visible every day in the riding.
I am sure that the vote will be almost 3-1 for Karygiannis.
21 12 05 MH
Since it was carved out of York-Scarborough in 1987, Scarborough--Agincourt has always gone Liberal. The only time the contest was even close was in 1988. Again, barring a major change in the political landscape that has yet to occur, Jim Karygiannis is as safe as just about any other Toronto Liberal.
07 12 05 -s-
Any Conservative prediction of a win is based on a zealous desire for change and not any reasonable attempt to understand what will actually happen. Best case scenario for Bill Redwood is if he campaigns as a Red Tory and something remarkable happens for his party during the campaign that no one is foreseeing. Otherwise the Conservatives will remain stagnant in this riding. Any realistic Tory gains will be made by the few voters convinced of the "time for change" mantra, which is somewhat of a joke in this riding because it's really hard to suggest that any candidate could be much more conservative than the Blue neo-Liberalism of Jim Karygiannis (save the Libertarians or Family Coalition Party, but they have no candidates yet). Add to any marginal Tory gain something outstanding on the part of Redwood and he might break 30%, up from 21%, but even this is charitable. As for the suggestion that Karygiannis may triple or even quadruple the Tory vote -- this is slightly unrealistic, too. If one expects even a slight Tory gain, this prediction would have to equate into a Karygiannis win in at least the high-60s and as high as 90% of the vote. Triple the Tories? A generous prediction might concede a 'maybe'. Quadruple? That's about as likely as a Conservative win. A modest estimate of NDP gains is a five-point increase to 15% which is still below provincial averages. Any significant momentum shift is with the NDP as they doubled their vote here last election. Similarly, in a recent by-election next-door in Rouge-River (which mirrors Agincourt demographically and trend-wise at both provincial and federal levels), the Liberals lost 6 points, the Conservatives stagnated and the NDP nearly tripled its vote. The Greens lost 2 points, which should be a warning to the 19-year-old KC Maple who is running against (and yet cozy with) the Liberals as he has been quoted as saying "I consider Mr. Karygiannis a friend. I'm sure he'll win. In a way he influenced my decision to take on this campaign." This is not the way to "raise awareness and political interest among other young Canadians" in a riding where the youth who manage not to dismiss all parties as corrupt or ineffective are looking for any platform a little more progressive than what the Conservatives, Liberals and Greens are offering here. Even many of the Catholic School students of Agincourt are for same-sex marriage, and only David Robertson appears to be anything left-of-centre in this strangely conservative crop of candidates. Unless something crazy happens during the campaign, a realistic prediction for Scarborough-Agincourt looks like this, give or take 5 points: LIB 55%; CPC 25%; NDP 15%; GRN 5%
06 12 05 M. Lunn
Okay lets get realistic here. Jim Karygiannis got three times as many votes as the Conservative candidate so to say that somehow the Conservatives are going to pick this up is just absurd. There would need to a Mulroney type sweep before the Tories would have any chance of winning this riding. It won't even be close, Jim Karygiannis will get at least twice as many votes as the Tories, and I am predicting probably 3-4 times as many.
03 12 05 I. H.
The Conservative candidate, Bill Redwood, speaks several different languages, and this helps as the communities are seeing the diversity (and not the traditional WASP image) in the Conservative party. Jim's connections in the communities are not coming through like they used to. Also, some people who voted Liberal in 2004 may move to the NDP because Martin again parachuted candidates into ridings, like he most notably did in 2004 with Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (Sheila Copps/Tony Valeri.) In the spring, people took notice when a young constituent asked at his marijuana town hall meeting what provisions Bill C-17 had for repeat offenders; he was forced to answer "none." Constituents are also beginning to realize how bad a parliamentarian he is (the Toronto Star gave him an F in June 2000); he rarely drops flyers unless in an election (or pre-election buildup) so his recent flurry of literature can only reasonably seen as a sign of desparation.
25 10 05 A.S.
Even the most relatively rosy predictions, long-term or short-term, for the NDP in Scarb-Agincourt tend to be way too optimistic and idealistic, but--David Robertson?!? The former Etobicoke councillor, right? (And a federal candidate in '84.) Weird, indeed; though this far away from his former elected turf, it may not make much if any difference--at best, he's the next Larry Taylor (ex-Mississauga councillor who tried for a quixotic federal comeback in '04). Though given the way Scarberia's been going, maybe there's an outside chance he'd nip the Tories for second. But the Tory total was still less than a third of the Liberal total last time. In fact, Jim Karygiannis managed 2004's third best Liberal percentage in Ontario (after Markham-Unionville and York West). Loathe him all you want, detractors; it won't make a difference...
20 09 05 -s-
Jim Karygiannis (Lib) will almost certainly win again in spite of his record as one of the worst Parliamentarians. He has had poor voting attendance and doesn't do much beyond his responsibilities as a Liberal back-bencher and Secretary to the Ministry of Transport. His strength is not in politics but in Public Relations. During his many years (15+) in office, he has established firm ties with nearly all ethnic communities in what is one of the most culturally diverse ridings in Canada. He takes many progressive votes from those who don't know him well and would rather vote for the Liberal Party label than have a Conservative take power. At the same time, he takes many Conservative votes because of his business background and stance against equal marriage rights. This explains why Conservative gains have been so marginal over the years.
The NDP, on the other hand, looks to make the most significant gains as it did in 2004 for several reasons: (1) exponentially increasing its vote is not difficult when it virtually had no presence here a decade ago; (2) the 2005 budget changes it forced out of the Liberals will bring benefits to cities and small businesses in a Toronto riding that is very much working- and middle-class; (3) the children of many first-generation immigrants are now of voting age and questioning their parents' tendency to vote Liberal/Conservative (a trend that has materialized into NDP victories in older areas of Toronto); and (4) the NDP is running their most notable candidate here in years (David Robertson mirrors Jack Layton both publicly and personally; he is a five-time city councillor in a committed inter-racial marriage).
Jim Karygiannis is sending out more pamphlets than ever with photo-ops portraying him as a champion of progressive multiculturalism while concealing his social conservatism. This will translate into many Liberal lawn signs as usual, but this time they will be competing against the popular Ontario Health Coalition signs ("Dalton McGuinty: Keep your promise... Don't privatize our hospitals") that are increasingly appearing in Scarborough's only riding that has a hospital north of Highway 401. The Green Party is also likely to double its votes because of the threatened closure of departments at Scarborough Grace Hospital--an intaker of many Toronto patients who were affected by the record number of smog-alerts this summer and the SARS outbreak in 2003.
The tendency to either not vote or vote for alternative parties will make this an interesting riding to watch in the long run. In the immediate future, however, Karygiannis will likely win comfortably with his traditional PR.
Prediction: LIB 49%; CPC 27%; NDP 18%; GRN 5%; Other 1%.
09 08 05 Craig
Another super-safe Liberal seat that it seems the entire electorate - left, right and centre - votes Liberal. With the Liberals way up in the GTA, and especially in the City of Toronto, this should be an easy cakewalk for Karygiannis with a larger majority. Predicted results: LIB 72%, CPC 16%, NDP 7%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
06 06 05 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold. Reasons: 1) Scarborough and North York are Liberal bedrock. These seats only come into play in a 1984-John Turner-style wipeout, which no one is predicting. 2) Jimmy K is well-connected with the riding's many ethnic groups, not only Chinese, but Tamils and black Canadians. 3) Jimmy K received more than two-thirds of the vote and more than three times his closest rival. 4) This is so low on the priority meter for the other parties, they will devote no time or resources here.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Scarborough is a middle class type area that will sometimes elect moderate Conservative parties and maybe more hardline ones if they stick to solely fiscal issues i.e. Mike Harris, but won't elect a hardline fiscal AND social conservative party. Besides all five Scarborough MPs opposed gay Marriage. Not to mention Jim Karygiannis is very popular amongst constituents including many conservative ones. Win or lose for the liberals, Jim Karygiannis is going back to Ottawa.



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