Update/Mise à jour:
11:33 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:49 PM 05/05/2005
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Richmond Hill
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Conservative/conservateur
Joe Di Paola
NDP/NPD
Wess Dowsett
Green/Vert
Tim Rudkins
Libearl/libéral
Bryon Wilfert

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Bryon Wilfert

2004 Result/Résultats:
Bryon Wilfert
27102
Pete Merrifield
11530
C. Nella Cotrupi
4495
Tim Rudkins
2144
Ellena Lam
1074

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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18 01 05 RF
I have a feeling that the last few respondents have this riding confused with another one. About 25% of the population in the Electoral District of Richmond Hill are Chinese, which is the single largest ethnic group. The Italian community is found predominantly to the west in Vaughan.
16 01 06 MF
OK, Wilfert trounced his opponent last time. However I think this riding can be placed in the TCTC column. Why? Bear and Ape, you exaggerate the loyalty of Italian Canadians to the Liberal Party. It's true they've voted massively Liberal federally since '93 (and before that too). But the Harris Tories were also able to win a plurality of the Italian Canadian vote in '95 and '99. So it may be the case that Italian Canadians are swing voters now. Certainly there's no particular issue that comes close to uniting this now mostly completely assimilated community. Canada doesn't have an "Italy" policy and Italian Canadians aren't esp. socially liberal or esp. socially conservative compared to Canadians as a whole, although the Catholic church is historically less important to Italians than it is to other Catholic ethnic groups such as Irish or Poles. The actual immigrant component is dropping like flies from old age as very few Italian immigrants arrive today. So what's keeping them especially Liberal?
905 is a swing area, and Richmond Hill is right at the center of it. They don't have the visceral hatred of Tories like they do in most of 416. So expect the result to be close.
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
Oh good God! Italians voting CPC because of an Italian candidate? You must be new at this, so we'll spell it out for you: Italians vote Liberal. Always have, no indication of that changing. Voters of all ethnicities vote for the party that best suits their needs, rarely (if ever) do they vote based on ethnic backgrounds.
Now we know the CPC has gained in Ontario but the Liberals won with over 15,000 (once again, everyone this time, say it together out loud: FIFTEEN THOUSAND VOTES). The measly 2000 votes the Greens got here won't put a dent into that. Will it be closer this time? Yes it will. But it will take something ground shaking to switch this. Sorry but there hasn't been any reports of seizmic activity in that part of the 905.
13 01 06 JC
First off Bryon is a very well respected MP and has served this riding well.
Secondly, Richmond Hill is a very liberal area, parts of it will vote conservative, but untill the conservative party comes up with a blue print to beat Bryon, this riding will always be Liberal, no mattter how bad the party does for these reasons, 1. Bryon listens to his constituants, 2. Bryon is a very ethical politican and always does the right thing.
Lastly Joe Di Paola, is the typical candidate for the conservative party, and he is not well respected in the town of Richmond Hill council right now for running, because he is still a ward councilor, and if he does win, which is a long shot, he will have to resgin, there are other examples of why Joe will not win, but if i post them i have a good feeling that it will be filtered.
In closing this riding will always be liberal untill Bryon retires from politics.
13 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Out on a limb, I say Conservative. Several factors:
1. Italian factor. This is a heavily Italian riding and an Italian name makes a lot of difference. The Liberal Italian star has been falling with scandals involving provincial Liberals, and it may fall all the way now with the numbers nationally shifting as they are.
2. Di Paolo bears no resemblance to the belchers from Alberta. Not only is he the only Conservative to carbon-neutralize his campaign, he did it with a self-deprecating press release making fun of his own "hot air". That got press all over York Region, and said "this guy's different".
3. As noted it's a fiscally conservative riding, and the Greens have abandoned their pro-corporate-tax cut position of 2004, so that will move some votes from GPC to CPC, as if the GPC's internal problems and failure to carbon-neutralize its own campaign weren't enough.
10 01 06 RF
Many people have discounted the popularity of Joe DiPaola in parts of this riding. He is much better known to the community than Pete Merrifield was in the last election. Pete Merrifield may have also suffered from the negative press received by Rob Merrifield another Conservative candidate running in Yellowhead, Alberta. Joe DiPaola also defeated Bryon Wilfert's wife in the 2000 municipal election. Furthermore the former Oak Ridges riding which encompassed most of the new Richmond Hill riding was one of the few GTA ridings to vote Conservative in the last Provincial election. For what its worth, I am seeing more DiPaola signs in my neighbourhood than Wilfert signs, including on the lawns of people who were Liberal supporters in the last election. On top of everything else, the recent swing in the national polls in favour of the Conservatives may be sufficient to persuade many local voters to switch their 2004 alliances.
25 12 05 A.S.
Maybe the bottom-most two candidates last time were most intriguing: Green shadow-cabinet type Tim Rudkins, and a Progressive Canadian who benefited from being the only Asian name on the ballot. As for Wilfert, he's just on the safe side of the 905's Liberal-safe/Liberal-marginal federal DMZ--though give the Tories points for trying. After all, prior to 1993's Great Schism (but before the seat really became Asianized), this would have been suburban Mulroneyite heartland--and heck, Frank Klees still holds it provincially. (Though maybe he wouldn't under the current boundaries--then again, he'd likely choose Oak Ridges-Markham following redistribution.)
14 12 05 M. Lunn
Regardless of how well organized the Tories are, they lost massively last time around so with polling numbers being similar to last time around, only close ridings are likely to switch. If the Tories don't even think they can re-take Newmarket-Aurora, then they certainly won't win this one.
13 12 05 JC
In response to lina's post, granted that last time around the candidate did not come in to an ideal situation, but this time around is no different, Bryon has represented the people of Richmond Hill since 2000 as an M.P, and this time around the result will be no different.Bryons has signs up already around Richmond Hill and every day more and more signs are going up, and with the lack of organization for the conservative candidate(Joe Di Paola), Bryon will once again win this seat with roughly the same number of votes.
13 12 05 Martin
Mr. Wilfert's margin of victory will likely be one of the widest in Ontario. He has served Richmond Hill for 20 years and is very well liked and respected in the riding. An overwhelming victory is the likely outcome considering that even support from the Conservative Riding Association for Di Paola was marginal at best.
Given the difficult circumstances that the Conservative campaign is facing here in Richmond Hill, I would predict that along with Mr. Wilfert, the Green Party and NDP candidates will finish ahead of Di Paola on the 23rd.
13 12 05 Bear and Ape
We think the Conservative poster is in need of a wake up call after an over-the-top posting like that. The CPC is not making any real inroads into the 905, and having won by well over 15,000 votes (say it: FIFTEEN THOUSAND!) Wilfert is safe. There is nothing at all that could lead any serious analyst to believe that this will go anything other than Liberal. Period.
09 12 05 Lina Calabrese
The Liberals are in for a real wake-up call in this riding. The large margin of victory for Wilfert last election was a product of a result of the lack of credibility of the Conservative candidate. The Candidate was under-financed and entered the riding just a month and a half before the vote. Joe Di Paola has electoral success in Richmond Hill as his trademark. First being elected to Council at 26 years of age he has become known as the Town's favourite son. His outreach efforts to the various ethinic communities are extensive, so much so that the Town's Urban characteristics will actually be to his advantage. Joe Di Paola will not only win this seat but be a real leader among the Conservative Caucus in Ontario. His victory will be studied as a blueprint by the Party as to how Conservatives can win traditional Liberal seats.
02 12 05 Observer
As much as I would like to predict the Conservatives winning, I feel that this election is just going to give the Liberals a stronger and stronger hold on power. In any case, Wilfert is, to an extent, trusted in the community. Last election there was an overwhelming consensus that this riding would go Conservative, but it stayed Liberal. (in my opinion) Unfortunately, Wilfert won't be unseated any time soon.
27 11 05 Full
Bryon Wilfert is the Incumbent and as such considering the HUGE win over the conservatives in the last election will be a shoe in for this election, he is a very strong candidate and has the support of most of Richmond Hill
27 11 05 Jason Cochrane
In response to Stuwart P post; First of all Bryon had to vote against the same sex marrage bill because the people in his riding spoke up by the countless number of e-mails and phone calls he received and second of all he was not PS to The minister of Environment when the controversy was going on with the Oak Ridges Moraine and that is a Provincial issue not a Federal Issue, and lastly Bryon is very well known in Richmond Hill and he does a lot of good work in the community.
27 05 05 Stuwart P.
I think the liberals will lose this seat. the conservatives were able to snag a strong candidate (Joe Dipaola) that actually lives in the riding and has been elected to town council 3 times. (including beating Wilfert's own wife)
Wilfert's stance against same sex will be lost in his parties offical one, and I have not been too impressed with his work on the moraine given his position as the secretary to the minister of environment.
His only hope will be a continued alienation and of the new Canadian vote with Stephen Harper; but it will be interesting to see if they can be won over by Dipaola as he already represents many of them in his current ward. My guess is yes and that as long as the conservative party is within 15% of the libs in Ontario it’s his.
09 05 05 Jason Cherniak
I always comment on this riding and I am glad to see that it is not too close to call this time. Bryon Wilfert is very popular and runs an excellent campaign. Bryon's vote against equal marriage, although I disagree with it, will probably ensure that he maintains his overwhelming majority.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Although Provincially a conservative riding, this a fiscally conservative but socially liberal riding so Stephen Harper's version of conservatism doesn't sell well in the 905 belt. They may win some ridings further North such as Newmarket-Aurora, and York Simcoe and possibly Oak Ridges-Markham if the Tories rebound, but this is too close to the city for the Conservatives to win.



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