Update/Mise à jour:
10:44 AM 16/01/2006

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11:47 PM 05/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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James Bender
Zoé Kunschner
Dave MacKenzie
Christian Heritage
John Markus
Greig Mordue
Kaye Sargent
Ronnee Sykes

Dave MacKenzie

2004 Result/Résultats:
Dave Mackenzie
Murray Coulter
Zoé Dorcas Kunschner
Irene Tietz
Leslie Bartley
James Bender
Kaye Sargent
Alex Kreider

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 the Scots-Canadian
I live in this riding. The way that it seems to work is that there is a moderate-sized swing vote in the three big communities: Woodstock, Ingersoll and Tillsonburg, and the rural areas become more politically conservative the further east you go in the riding. In good years for the Liberals, the swing vote might squeak them in.
That said, the end of the vote split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance Party probably means that there is an inherent bias to the Conservatives that will be hard for the Liberals to overcome at the best of times. The new Toyota plant may bring a significant number of immigrants who would probably benefit the Liberals and the NDP more than the Conservatives. This riding may be closer in the future as its population expands and urbanizes.
Last election, the polls in the three towns were relatively close with an overall Conservative lean, say 52.5% Conservative 47.5% Liberal.
In the rural areas, Mackenzie often polled 66% to 33% against the Liberal candidate, Murray Coulter.
The overall totals in 2004 were 20,606 for Mackenzie and 14,011 for Coulter. The NDP candidate is persistent, but not strong, and polled 6,673. Interestingly, 4,613 of 46,114 total voters backed minor parties with the Greens and Christian Heritage candidates polling over 1,500 votes each. Jim Bender for the Marijuana Party is a charismatic local celebrity and polled a very respectable 794 in 2004. Interestingly, Bender was beating the Christian Heritage candidate in Ingersoll and Tillsonburg and almost beating him in Woodstock. In the country, it was 4 to 1 for the Christian Heritage.
This time, the Liberal Grieg Mordue is a stronger candidate than Coulter in 2004 but the recent tip against the Liberals in Ontario will probably put him about where Coulter was in 2004. Mackenzie is a great guy and very popular as a moderate Conservative who -- before the union -- was a Progressive Conservative rather than a Reformer. This helps his credibility even among people who are nervous of the Conservatives. He also works very hard to maintain his public exposure in the riding. Every time I go to a public dinner or event, guess who is sitting at the head table?
05 01 06 A.S.
Dave Mackenzie was always an MP-in-waiting anyway; in fact, he was almost unique among 2004's Ontario CPCs in carrying his own against the Grits even in NDPish urban polls. Now the Liberal candidate is stronger--but so is the Tory campaign; too strong. Easily the widest Tory margin in SW Ontario. This is the heartland; the proving ground. As Toryness goes, Oxford is more Leacockian than Orillia--right down to the host of weird minor candidates past and present (usually a strong CHPer, the eternal Kaye Sargent for the Libertarians, and one of Southern Ontario's best Marijuana Party results last time--hey, it's Woodstock, man...)
18 12 05 Bear and Ape
Polls are looking too good for the Torys in SW Ontario to allow this, probably the most conservative riding in the region, to go anything but Tory blue. A Toyota executive for the Liberals will only mean the CPC will win with only about 50% of the vote.
16 12 05 John Turvey
it is quite likely that this is a Conservative victory..... However, we will have to wait and see.... the announcement that an executive from Toyota has the nomination for the Liberals may be enough to sway a few voters, especially around Woodstock....
18 11 05 M. Lunn
The Liberals just nominated an executive from Toyota Canada, which with the new Toyota plant coming to Woodstock, this may be enough to keep the Conservatives under 50% and at least counter Dave Mackenzie's general popularity. However, the size of the Conservative win was too large to overcome for the Liberals. Not to mention most Post-Gomery polls have put the gap between the Liberals and Tories as being slightly narrower than last time around, but not much, so I really cannot see the Tories losing this one.
07 11 05 Mark R.
Although I agree with the last poster, you have to live in this riding to understand it. I live in Tillsonburg and the reason why Mr. Mackenzie will win for sure, is that he is the first MP ever to have had a constituency office in more than one part of the riding specifically in Tillsonburg. Mr. Mackenie is cut from the same cloth as Ernie Hardeman, our multi-term PC MPP. Ernie won in a Liberal landslide provincially. Well respected as a former police chief, and very visible throughout the riding, Mr. Mackenzie attends many functions. The recent announcement about the Woodstock Toyota plant will only help Mr. Mackenzie's campaign even though he was slighted by the Prime Minister and the Premier of Ontario at the "Breaking New Ground" ceremony. Dave is a great MP and will be returned to Ottawa with 50% plus of the vote.
24 10 05 PFR
This is a true Conservative stronghold. Even if the tories would lose every other seat in Southwestern Ontario which isn't going to happen they would still hold onto Oxford. Dave MacKenzie now has the advantage of being the incumbent and look for him to use that to gain over 50% of the vote in the next federal election.
16 05 05 Craig
The strongest Conservative riding in southwestern Ontario, this area is more typical of ridings out in eastern Ontario with its strong agricultural and religious base without a strong union presence to solidify the left. Dave Mackenzie should be re-elected with a large margin of victory. Predicted results: CPC 53%, LIB 24%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, others 4%.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is a riding the Alliance did well in, and the PC Party too. The gap last time was 6,000 votes, one of the largest in the province for the tories. I expect the tories to win again, this time, with a majority. No question about it in my mind.
04 05 05 Jeff
Oxford is a largely rural/small-town riding that has a long history of voting Conservative (except during the 'vote-splitting' era). It's hard to see this riding going to anyone but Mackenzie. A safe bet for the Tories in SW Ontario.
03 05 05 James
Easy Conservative Hold. Anything the Conservatives won this easily last time will be a hold. No way they're losing seats - especially ones like these.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Outside of Eastern Ontario, this was the Conservatives best showing. It was also the Progressive Conservatives best showing in 2000 where they only lost by 5 points. This is naturally a conservative riding (the last time the liberals defeated a united right was 1949), but Dave MacKenzie was a former police chief and very popular amongst his constituents. No matter how much the liberals re-bound, this one will stay conservative come election day, whenever that may be.

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