Update/Mise à jour:
10:43 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:36 AM 02/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Mauril Bélanger
Paul Benoit
Ric Dagenais
Alexandre Legeais
Progressive Canadian
James C. Parsons
Raphaël Thierrin

L'Hon. Mauril Bélanger

2004 Result/Résultats:
Mauril Bélanger
Kevin Friday
Ric Dagenais
Raphaël Thierrin
Carol Taylor
Françoise Roy

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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15 01 06 plank
Again, this'll be an easy Liberal win. The other major parties can run articulate Francophones all they want. In fact, that's what they're doing: all candidates communicate well (in both languages) and answer questions thoughtfully. I predict the votes to mimic the 1984 election when Mulroney swept to power, except a bit stronger for the NDP, with the Greens, nonexistent then, doing better than ever before, but still finishing fourth.
So it'll be approximately like this:
Belanger, LIB, 20500
Benoit, CPC, 13500
Dagenais, NDP, 11500
Thierrin, GRN, 5000
15 12 05 Horseface
It seems like we have this discussion every provincial and federal election when we talk about my old riding. Everyone (correctly) predicts a Liberal win, and then talks up how the NDP is going to finish a strong second. And every year they finish distantly third. (Or fourth, in the case of the 2000 federal election).
At this point, the NDP is polling in the mid teens in Ontario, and given that a good chunk of that strength is coming from 416, and given historical patterns in 613, I'd wager they're polling at half that level in Eastern Ontario. My prediction at this point is threefold:
1) Liberal Win
2) Conservatives beat NDP for 2nd place
3) 7 million years into the future, when we are all have evolved into beings of pure energy and we gain nourishment by plugging ourselves into wall sockets, the Liberals might lose this riding - to the Conservatives.
12 12 05 TH
This election, although I hate to admit it, will likely see a Liberal returned as the representative of Ottawa--Vanier to the House of Commons. However, I fully support the previous writer's comments. The NDP will significantly close the gap. Partly fueled by increasing support amongst young people at the University of Ottawa (and their endless committed to volunteering on the campaign), the NDP will make serious in-roads. They've also been very successful in fundraising and are spending more on this campaign than they ever have in the past (by thousands of dollars). This will allow the candidate, Ric Dagenais, to introduce himself and the NDP's policies to virtually everyone in the riding. He ran for the NDP in the last election in Ottawa--Vanier and is well-known in the community for his activism on homelessness and environmental issues. Yes, it's likely Mauril Belanger will return as Ottawa--Vanier's MP, but don't be surprised if the NDP come a close second. And, in the next election, whenever that comes, the NDP could finally take this riding out of the Liberal's grip.
24 07 05
There is no reason why this should be a liberal walk every single election. The demographics say Grit/Dipper toss up at least. So why do the liberals win here? A popular incumbent Mauril Bélanger. As long as he stays the liberals will have no problem here, but watch the ndp slowly close the gap on him. this will never be a NDP strong hold, but it could very easly become a toss up
22 07 05 A.S.
The NDP *always* did better here than in Ottawa South; after all, too much of the Ottawa-Vanier bears more demographic kinship with Ottawa Centre than Ottawa South--but it's been no match for a history of steamrollering Gritdom. Yet the 2004 result transmitted some ominous signals, and not just w/the Liberals dipping below the 50% mark for the first time since whenever. Because traditionally, what's cemented this seat for the Grits has been the Franco-Ontarian urban heartland of Vanier. It could be as Tory as it wants in Rockcliffe Park or Rothwell Heights; it could be as NDP as it wants in Lower Town or Sandy Hill; but Vanier seals it for the Liberals in a landslide. Well, guess what; in 2004, and dampered perhaps by the emerging (and French-Canadian-centred)sponsorship scandal, the Liberals didn't really do any better than par in Vanier. Not that any other party gained the clear advantage from this dampering (NDP and Tory more or less tied for second)--but when the heartland goes, that transmits a message of danger on the horizon. Given the seat's nature and the lingering "posthumous" Broadbent honeymoon, an NDP pickup ought to look more on the horizon than a CPC pickup--and that's the trouble; all things considered, it still presently appears a pipe dream than anybody but the Grits can win Ottawa-Vanier. But sometimes, pipe dreams have this funny way of becoming reality...
11 05 05 A...
Alright, so the Liberals will win this time, but perhaps it's worth paying attention to the NDP, and their contested nomination in Ottawa-Vanier. Depending on how the nomination goes, this could become a slightly more interesting riding with a good NDP candidate, instead of the simple stand-in candidates of the past. Afterall, the NDP did better in Ottawa-Vanier than they did in Ottawa-South in '04, where they happened to have a star candidate!
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
Belanger got more than twice the votes of his nearest rival (a Conservative) last year and will certainly keep his seat. Two groups in this riding that don't trust Conservatives; Franco-Ontarians (the Canadian Alliance may be gone but not forgotten) and government workers (Conservatives like less beurocracy, meaning they could be out of a job). Mauril can rest easy, not like some of his friends in near-by ridings (can we say Ottawa-West Nepean?)
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
This riding has a large number of civil servants who are uncomfortable voting for party that may lay off many of them as right wing parties tend to do. It also has a large Francophone community so even though the Conservatives now support Bilingualism, the Francophones still haven't forgotten the Reform Party's past stances so it will take time for those to wash over. Beside this riding has gone liberal in every election since 1935, so this is not just the safest liberal riding in Ontario, but probably the safest in Ontario. If Ontario were to only elect one liberal MP, it would likely be Mauril Belanger.
26 04 05 Craig
With the sponsorship scandal taking its toll and the Liberals free-falling on both sides, this is the ONLY safe Liberal seat in Eastern Ontario, which has more in common with the West Island of Montreal. Nothing short of a Kim Campbell-type collapse would prevent them from losing this one, and they need to fall below 20% in the polls before that becomes a possibility. A split opposition between the right and left also helps here. Predicted results: LIB 41%, NDP 27%, CPC 26%, GRN 4%.

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