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4:49 PM 12/01/2006

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Northumberland-Quinte West
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Russ Christianson
Patricia Lawson
Paul Macklin
Rick Norlock

Hon. Paul Harold Macklin

2004 Result/Résultats:
Paul Macklin
Doug Galt
Russ Christianson
Steven Haylestrom

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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10 01 06 Trenton Guy
I'm predicting a Consevative win in this riding because in the last election the Liberals won by just over 300 votes. Norlock will easily win Trent Hills, he will also win the other rural areas and I'm guessing that Quinte West will go Conservative as well. Aside from a few polls in Cobourg and Port Hope that will stay Liberal, Norlock will most likely win this EDA. This is a riding to watch because both Harper and Martin are visiting quite often and even Rex Murphy is coming into town for a live broadcast. The key players no this is a riding to lose. This riding could also be considered a poll of who will become Prime Minister. If Norlock is to win, then certainly Harper can win at least minority government.
02 12 05 Ernie
Slim Liberal victory, with conservatives taking the silver. Expect a stronger NDP result. Russ is a strong candidate for the new democrats, and really improved the party numbers last time around. The steady stream of Toronto ex-patriots coupled with the young vote will add to the NDP fortunes. Having said that, Rick Norlock, a former Alliance candidate has lost to Macklin before, and Paul Macklin is a well respected MP who has worked hard for this county as well as for quinte west. I expect there to be a number of people who will want to support the conservatives because of the impact this county is feeling in the wake of the GM layoffs. Northumberland is also a rural constituency, which will be divided between liberal and tory. NDP doesn't hold much hope of drawing from the farmers unless they can provide a clear, simple and immediate approach to improving fortunes on the family farm that will show where it counts to farmers (the bottom line). The one to please the farmer will walk away the winner, and that looks to be Macklin.
02 12 05 initial
All this talk about Macklin's support of same sex marriage hurting him this time out may be just so much wishfull thinking on the part of some neo-cons. There is public support for the concept on a national level and although I don't have figures for the breakdown in our area, I do know that there are a lot of gay and lesbian folks living in Northumberland. Macklin now also has the advantage of incumbantcy & a reasonable track record in office. I still see this being a very close Lib/Con race and I predict NDP candidate Russ Christianson will increase his vote share as well.
28 11 05 Initial
In the 2004 election, the local CPC ran with Doug Galt, former MPP. Doug had strong name recognition and a good record, but suffered due to baggage. More to the point, I'm not convinced his heart was really into running again.
This election they're running with Rick Norlock, a strongly personable man with enthusiasm and energy. They lost the last election by just over 300 votes, and with Rick's commitment to the campaign, they will come out with a victory this time around.
28 11 05 Andy
Okay the race is on... and talking to my neighbours they think that Norlock is going to win this one. He's new and although he ran a few years back, he doesn't carry the baggage that Galt did (i.e. Port Hope hospital). I also hear people saying that Macklin hasn't done much for the riding. There are way too many platitudes and not enough hard tough action. Northumberland-Quinte West should be front and centre, but it is not. There's no doubt that this riding will be a close race between Macklin and Norlock. So I'm guessing that from what I hear in the national media and polls, and from what I witness locally, Norlock will have the edge and will win by a few hundred votes. Additionally, there will be many that will vote for Russ and the NDP taking away votes for Macklin. I really think the NDP will have an edge this time as so many are upset with the corruption (e.g. Gomery Report). So this will help the Conservatives.
29 10 05 A.S.
A classic Middle Ontario seat, and what happened here was a practically Leacockian embodiment of the Election '04 dynamic (I know, I drove through here on Day 1). It started w/ex-MPP Doug Galt as the Tory standard-bearer, and he came on like gangbusters once the writ was dropped; if a truly Tory-friendly tide was turning in Ontario, the seat--once a classic Upper Canadian PC stronghold, the party's last office-holder being George Hees)--appeared to be Galt's for the taking. Meanwhile, the campaign for freshman backbench MP Paul Macklin was shockingly slow off the hustings. And remained so, for a long time. Galt was trouncing Macklin in the sign wars and, apparently, the ground-level organization wars. Even the NDP was putting on a shockingly good show in a seat where conventional wisdom would've indicated a near-impossible struggle to hold onto their deposit, let alone winning. It seemed like the "anti-Martin" backlash (compounded by its provincial anti-McGuinty-budget counterpart) struck really deep roots here; indeed, it looked like an '84-style Gritastrophe in the making, if not on a '93 PC scale, even. But eventually, especially once the "scary Harper" issue took root among N'land's Toronto-yuppie-expatriate crowd, etc, things started to balance out. Macklin signage quietly caught up to the Galt onslaught--and caught up to the point where on election day, he managed the impossible and vanquished Doug Galt. And the NDP--well, they *did* hold their deposit. Which, considering how they lost said deposit in one-time urban strongholds like Etobicoke-Lakeshore or w/controversially high-profile candidates as in Ottawa South, may suggest they should creatively rethink/broaden their Ontario strategy (less Layton, more Charlie Angus?) Right now, re the Tories, keep in mind that while Rick Norlock may lack Doug Galt's Harris/Eves baggage, the Alliance baggage of his own past candidacy might actually make a Doug Galt more electable. But as long as Paul Macklin stands out as a last-minute reelection fluke par excellence--the last true rural Liberal in Anglophone Eastern Ontario?--this remains in the Top 10 among OnToryo targets....
18 07 05 Craig
While Rick Norlock is not as well known as Doug Galt, the lack of baggage from the Harris-Eves years will be a bonus. In addition, Paul Macklin went against the local position in supporting gay marriage. That will mean far more than 300 votes will be lost on that one issue, and that does not account for new social conservatives that come out in droves to unseat Macklin. It really would not matter who the Conservatives nominated. Predicted results: CPC 44%, LIB 37%, NDP 14%, GRN 5%.
16 06 05 cobourg guy
OK then… Trenton… that’s an interesting opinion.
Macklin signs in the last election were actually on private property.. unlike Galt signs, which looked lovely, mainly in ditches… homes with owners equal voters – ditches do not vote – hence Macklin’s win, and the Tories loss.
Also – in 2000 you are quite right, few knew Macklin – he was nominated the day before the writ was dropped. He had no profile in the east, but it wasn’t Chretien’s coat tails that put him in office, it was a vote split – do the math and you will see – the Liberals won this riding in 93, 97 and 2000 mainly due to the vote split. People knew it was easy to vote against the government for a right wing candidate without the threat of actually electing some of these guys.
However, when push came to shove, and people actually had to think about where they were going to put that X in the box, because it was actually going to matter, more people chose Macklin. Maybe not because he was a Liberal, because afterall, this was one of the lowest points for Liberal support in over a decade, however, maybe they chose him because he was a good MP.
If you look back to the last election Galt couldn’t even criticize Macklin for being a poor MP. After all, he had worked with him so much throughout his own term.
26 05 05 Quinte West Resident
I disagree with Cobourg Guy's prediction. Even though the new Conservative candidate (Rick Norlock) isn't as well known as former candidate and MPP Galt, Norlock has been the Conservative Riding Association President and is very active and liked by many conservatives. He won an overwhelming majority at the nomination meeting and appears to have the backing of the Association's Board of Directors. I think just as many Conservatives, and probably more, will be out working for Norlock as there was for Galt. In the last election, the Liberal signs weren't out and Macklin didn't have the support that he needed. I therefore further believe that with the sponsorship scandal and the wave for a change, Norlock has the edge necessary to win. Besides, how many knew who Macklin was in 2000? He only won on the Chretien coat tails. I predict a Conservative win, whenever the election is.
09 05 05 Cobourg Guy
So in the last election, Galt, with amazing name recognition and great profile, comes within 300 votes of defeating Macklin. This time around, the Conservatives nominate a candidate who lost against Macklin in 2000, who has a very low profile, and next to no name recognition.
Galt had to work very hard, and for a very long time, to get within that 300 threshold. I don't think it is possible for someone without Galt's campaign experience and knowledge of the riding to top that this time around.
I say NQW stays red, not by a huge majority, but probably more than 300 votes.
09 05 05 Andrew
Whether Mr. Macklin thinks he's right on same sex marriage is debatable but his explanation that he had to support the government since he is the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice completely ignored the wishes of his constituents. Interesting position.
More interesting is that Mr. Macklin is one of 14 Liberal MPs from the 905 belt who voted against Bill C-215 calling for stronger sentences on gun crime. Every Conservative and NDP Member in the 38 "905 ridings" supported the Bill. Even New Democrat leader Jack Layton supported the bill, taking a stronger position on crime than Mr. Macklin.
Tory candidate Rick Norlock is a former cop. If the ballot question is law and order this one won't be close.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
If the Conservatives with a former Harris member could come within 300 votes last time around, this is definitely a prime target for the Tories. Not to mention Paul Macklin is the parliamentary secretary to the Justice minister and is a strong backer of same-sex marriage so I don't think it should be too hard to get 300 more social conservatives who sat out last election to show up at the polls and vote Conservative, especially considering that Stephen Harper's position on same-sex marriage was ambiguous last time around, but clear this time around. A liberal win is possible, but if they do win this, then the Tories can forget about winning any more seats in Ontario since this is one of the easiest ones to pick up.
02 05 05 Brandon
Doug Galt, the former MPP, came dangerously close to taking this seat for the Tories the last time around. The Liberal, Paul Macklin, won by only 300 votes. That just isn't enough for election 2005. Northumberland County will turn a deep shade of blue come election day.

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