Update/Mise à jour:
12:14 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:13 PM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
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Progressive Canadian
Dorian Baxter
Lois Brown
Ed Chudak
Glenn Hubbers
Canadian Action
Peter Maloney
Belinda Stronach

Hon. Belinda Stronach

2004 Result/Résultats:
Belinda Stronach
Martha Hall Findlay
Ed Chudak
Daryl Wyatt
Dorian Baxter

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 jwe
Reading the recent comment that suggests Belinda's status as a leadership hopeful may bring her votes, brought this scenario to mind that I have to share....After winning the leadership of the Liberal party, Belinda crosses the floor again and just like her former loverboy Peter McKay, cements a deal with Harper to merge the Liberals and the Conservatives! It was their dastardly plan all along. Voter anger results in the first federal NDP government in Canadian history when the new Liberal-Conservatives are tossed from office. ;-)
19 01 06 DV
As for the arcticles in the Globe - it was basically saying that she was going down. She refers to her internal polling as syaing it is tough out there ... i.e. the numbers are not good otherwise she would be more upbeat.
18 01 06 Chicken Wing Charlie
Belinda was on the front page of the Globe and Mail this morning. It's looking like the media are giving her some extra coverage that will help Belinda get another mandate. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows if Belinda holds this riding that she'll be running for leader of the Liberal party. Having a high profile MP who's running for the leadership of a national party is more than enough to help Belinda win this one. The Conservatives really didn't think they could win this seat or they would have gone out and found themselves a much better candidate.
16 01 06 Tom Gladman
It is looking more and more clear like Belinda is going down here. On Question Period, she admitted she was in a tough fight to win her seat. She is also having to battle the negative Liberal advertisements which also target her by accident. For example Mike Harris and her had a great relationship. He sits on the board of directors at Magna, Belinda was his choice for PM and she admitted to frequently getting advice from him. On the war on Iraq and Kyoto, Belinda had similar positions to Harper. She also has an endorsement from Buzz Hargrove, but Magna is known to be anti-Union. There are far more Conservative signs on lawns and public property. The Lois volunteer team is bigger. The anti-Belinda vote is more motivated than the Liberal vote to block Harper. On top of that, the Liberal national campaign is falling apart and this area has a strong Conservative base to begin with. Most people vote based on the national campaign. Belinda also still has one major debate to go in Newmarket. This will be the toughest crowd. She has also had problems getting positive media coverage and there are rumours that another scandal is about to break regarding her campaign expenditures. I think these factors will be very tough to overcome.
Lois Brown has had a tough ride with abortion, but I don't think this is the major issue in the campaign. Belinda crossing the floor, scandal and corruption and Harper's policies geared to the middle class are becoming popular. Early in this election, it looked like Belinda may hold on due ot name recognition. Now it looks like she will lose as she needs a strong Liberal campaign to justify joining that party and also to argue that she can be a strong voice for Newmarket-Aurora based on the fact she is the first cabinet minister in 20 years.
I predict a decisive loss. Polling shows that Belinda is actually pretty far behind and her comments in the media are a good indicator that this is true.
15 01 06 DV
I think you can now put this one in the Blue Column. Belinda is going down. If you need any further proof check out the Toronto (Red) Star's article this weekend "Who's Tory now?" written about Belinda. Despite the paper's obvious pro-Lieberal stance the article predicts that Belinda will be defeated.
Although far from scientific the article did refer to 2 mini-polls one by the reporter who asked over 30 people with an overwhelming majority of people saying they will NOT vote for Belinda as well as an interview with the Barber who also predicted her defeat.
13 01 06 H.L.S.
Here is an story from the Toronto Star:
Things does not look good for Belinda, unless there is a something dramatic over next week, she is going down. In the Toronto Star story, you can imply that the Liberal internal polling is not doing well; and with the election focusing more and more on accountability and trust, Belinda the floor-crosser is just not coming well over to the voters.
Sigh, I never understood why Belinda would jump on a sinking ship.
13 01 06 MF
Time to call this one for the Conservatives. While it probably helped Belinda when she jumped to the Liberals at the time, now that the Liberals are a sinking ship her decision reeks of opportunism. Not to mention this exurban riding is far enough from Toronto so the social conservative elements in the Tories don't seem so scary.
12 01 06
Ooo... three weeks ago I'd have called this for Belinda. However, even Liberals concede they are about to lose this election! With the Tories at a 11 point lead over the Liberals right now nationally, and leading in Ontario, this is one of the ridings that would turn blue. Stronach has been a vocal MP, but vocal as in controversial. The anti-Belinda movement here is extremely strong, and while Lois Brown is not that great of a debater, she is popular in this riding.
12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Belinda for several reasons:
10. Jessica Holmes can imitate her without even putting on a disguise. This saves on money at the CBC, which is always important to Conservative voters.
9. No one can seriously pin any Chretien or early Martin scandal on her.
8. Despite a general Liberal collapse in Ontario, she herself just isn't a typical Liberal and will generally be immune to that collapse.
7. HRDC is almost the ultimate pork barrel position, why should constituents vote out a sitting Cabinet Minister of such power?
6. Belinda herself created the Conservative Party of Canada out of not much, and has been very forthright and unapologetic about it. Basically Canada needs a strong Opposition, period. And it should stay there, in Opposition, to keep Liberals honest. What is wrong with that? Nothing. Ordinary nonpartisan people who trust neither party respect that stand.
5. She also single-handedly prevented an unwanted election last summer. Yes it was Chuck Cadman's vote, and Carolyn Parrish's too, but without Belinda crossing the floor neither would have mattered.
4. She's cute. (Yes yes I know all about sexism blah blah but who cares? Politics is mostly about power and power is ultimately tied up with sex).
3. She's engaging in person and unguarded, also appealing in a politician. She's the only person ever to out-clown This Hour Has 22 Minutes.
2. She's a potential Prime Minister. No, not yet, but wait five years.
1. Given that she's Martin's best weapon against Harper, being able to speak directly to what she saw in his party and how it deviated from her hopes for it, she's going to be EVERYWHERE in the media this final two weeks of the campaign. She's the ultimate walking talking fembot attack ad.
11 01 06 DV
First the overall obvious sea change to the Conservatives will affect this riding probably more then ever due to FlipFloplinda effect as well as its conservative history.
In addition one factor that is not being considered here and in many other ridings is the Green Party. Specifically, I believe that the Green Party will come in third (I can hear the chants now "we're number 3! we're number 3!...) ahead of the NDP.
Furthermore I believe that they will get most of their incremental support from the Liberals. In tight races such as N-A this could / should tip the scales in favour of the Conservatives.
While a "Liberal to Conservative" vote switch is obviously most advantageous for the Conservatives, a "Liberal to Green" switch is something they will definitely take.
I believe that the Conservative vote from last election will benefit more from the Anti-Belinda votes into them then any Pro-Belinda / friends of Magma votes that they lose.
Combine both effects and this tight race (and probably many others across the nation) goes to the Conservatives.
10 01 06 Crisco
I've honestly got to agree with arguments on both sides. Considering how close the election was last time (somewhere around 700 votes), I honestly think this riding could easily fall under the "Too Close to Call" category. Lawn signs seem to be found in about equal numbers, with even a few NDP signs scattered here and there. Factor in the recent rise in the polls for the Conservatives, and this becomes an even tighter race. In my mind, this riding will be decided by three factors.
1) The Swing Factor.
I get the sense from the pro-Belinda voters that I've talked to that most of them voted Liberal last time, not because they disliked Stronach, but mainly because they didn't trust Harper, or had always voted Liberal. I equally assume that many who voted Liberal last time did so because they just didn't like Stronach. On the other hand, there were those who voted CPC last time who, even though they didn't like Harper, decided to suck it up and go with Stronach because they liked her. Others voted Conservative because they liked (or at least tolerated) Harper, and liked CPC policies (or just hated the Liberals). So, there are four main camps here - the Liberal and Conservative camps, which will stay where they are, and the pro- and anti-Belinda camps, who will switch sides this time around. What this will come down to is the strength of the last two, and how much support they take to the other side.
2) The Dorian Factor
Of course, our dear Mr. Baxter offers a nice middle ground in between the Liberals and Conservatives, and will draw votes away from both. With over 1,000 votes last time around, Baxter could once again decide this election, depending on how much support he gets, and from where.
3) Strategic NDP Voting
Many who voted NDP last time may be drawn to Stronach this time around, simply because she is a famous candidate who will have a better chance of winning than the NDP's Ed Chudak, and will represent a point of view similar (not identical) to their own.
Considering the results last time, and all the variables in play this time, I don't think this one can be called for Stronach with any strong sense of certainty. Until we get a better indication about how this riding will swing, I think this one should be 'Too Close to Call'.
08 01 06
Kent, like most Conservatives, is not telling the truth. Belinda has been around the riding more than Lois, I even saw her at Newmarket's First Night. Lois has been hanging around with Harper at right-wing rallies in Mississauga. There are more red signs then blue....look for yourself! And the Town of Newmarket actually had to have some attendees at the PM rally watch the event form the hallways, as the room was at capacity. Look at the pictures in the Era-Banner for proof. This will be a tight race, but having Conservatives lie about what is going on likely won't help Lois.
06 01 06 Kent
Now that we are in the final three weeks of this campaign it is clear that this riding is leaning Conservative. Polling shows Lois is in the lead by a tight margin. Signs are about 7-1 in favour of Lois in both Newmarket and Aurora. The national Liberal campaign is falling apart. Belinda has been absent from this riding for most of the campaign. We still have two national debates and three local debates to go. Several high profile Conservatives are set to come into this riding in the final week of the campaign. Belinda is also fighting a battle regarding campaign spending. She must also defend crossing the floor and the Liberal record of corruption.
Less than 100 people were at Paul Martin's event yesterday in Newmarket and Belinda has got very poor press coverage. Martin has been here two times in the past couple of months showing just how close this riding is.
06 01 06 Renegade Voter
I haven't heard anything from Elvis (DorianB) this time around.. I was planning to vote for him, but I think I'm going to vote for Belinda instead. To be honest, I like nobody..
I met Lois Brown many years ago while working on a project for Frank Klees .. and even though it might have been nearly years ago now, I remember that she was annoying, that she offered up some ideas for our project that were just ridiculous, and also that she is a Bible basher. Put all 3 together, and it's a 'no-thanks for me'.
Last time, I was surprised to see MHF do see well against Belinda. MHF didn't even come to my door and as she lived in Collingwood at the time unless you were really involved in her party/campaign or had attended some function that she'd shown up at in the weeks before the election, most people had no idea who she was or what she was going to do for our community. So MHF coming so close indicates to me that people were voting for the (Liberal) party, and especially as Belinda was already such a well-konwn name in the area, if ~she~ could only eek-out a narrow victory, Lois certainly has her work cut out for her.
I think it'll be close again, but with the same results - Belinda is in!
04 01 06 Victor A.
I do think that even with as much as 5 to 7 % of a hypothetical Tory lead in Ontario, Belinda would still have won it. I do think Lois is a very good candidate as well and certainly she seems to be underestimated by some pundits but this is simply not a fertile ground for the CP supporters to win it. The only message we get from the CPers is that this area was Conservative before 1993, a similar message about some other GTA 905 belt ridings. Yet the pundits that always use this message forget that demographics of the GTA have changed drastically in the last 10 to 13 years and the enormous ( by North American standards ) growth of the GTA doesn't favour the PC nor its policies. It's just as simple as that, no need to overanalyse this one. Granted, some people are angry about Belinda's choices but then again a lot of people are happy they can support her now that she is in a party that better represents their views.
04 01 06 J Hauseman
I think this one won't even be close - Lois Brown by a wide margin - basically, this riding is a Conservative Riding - last election, I think any candidate other than Belinda would have won this riding by at least 2,500 votes for the Conservatives - I agree that her wealth works against her, as many voters resent the influence of her family - unfair perhaps, but human nature - by crossing the floor, and watching the Liberal machine make gaff after gaff, I think this riding will fall to the Conservatives by at least 4,000 votes, likely more!
29 12 05 T Taylor
Frank Stronach was defeated in 1988 to PC John Cole. I think history may repeat itself again. I think most people realize Belinda is a strong voice for Newmarket-Aurora and she has charisma that attracts people to her. Her family has done a lot for the community and she has brought far more attention to this riding then Karen Kraft Sloan. There are three problems she must deal with though:
1, Her crossing the floor. Liberals have accepted her into the party and will vote for her. Conservatives are angry and will come out in big numbers to get rid of her. On top of that there are ethical issues associated with the timing and her accepting a cabinet position with the Liberals.
2, The Liberal campaign's wheels are falling off. If the Liberals slide in Ontario, she will sink with the ship. As we get more negative, there is no doubt the opposition will counter with the sponsorship scandal. The new RCMP scandal with Ralph Goodale is not helpful. The racist blog remarks and the issue with the Holocaust Memorial picture has also backfired. Martin and the Liberals will be on the defensive. The media is turning on us. Unless Team Martin can turn things around fast, the Conservatives national campaign may do a lot of damage here. The better Harper looks, the worse Belinda's decision looks to cross the floor.
3, Her wealth. People are jealous and feel she doesn't relate to them.
Internal polling shows this race is neck and neck. It is anyone's guess who will win on January 23. The Liberal campaign must improve however.
29 12 05 JSE
I do not believe Belinda will win. Newmarket-Aurora is generally a Conservative riding (as is the provincial riding of the area), and yet enough people disliked Belinda last time around so that she barely won as a Conservative. So, now she is a Liberal running in a Conservative riding full of Conservatives who hate her for crossing, and some Liberals who distrust her flippancy. In addition, Lois Brown is running against her as the Conservative candidate, whom Belinda had barely defeated in the last candidate nomination (her career is full of close calls and bare misses).
28 12 05
JH seems to have a good grip on what is happening here - as the most interesting riding in the Canada for this election - and a solid understanding of how the electorate is breaking down. In the end, the difference will be how many local voters want to punish Waltzing Belinda for two-stepping across the floor combined with how many did not accept her to begin with on either side of the spectrum.
Stronach has become the flash point for all the resentment for anyone who has an axe to grind in this campaign, (company town, rich spoiled daughter, Belinda Benedict, lack of democratic reform, mismanagement at HRSDC/Service Canada). While outsiders who are joining the campaign seem to be rallying less in support of Brown and more to knock off Stronach, the determining factor will be the shift in polls in Ontario which appear to be twitching ever so slightly over to the Tories just as the campaign is about to enter its critical phase.
26 12 05 Steve G
I still think Belinda will win but by all accounts this is turning into a much closer race than anybody predicted. Conservatives in this riding are mobilized and would walk over hot coals to get the poll stations and vote against Belinda. What I think some people are not considering is that there was very much an anti-Belinda vote the LAST time around, and naturally it went to the Liberal candidate at the time, Martha Findlay. People who couldn't stomach having Belinda as their MP last time around will have those same feelings now, and with the Conservative Party having moved itself much closer to the centre, they may well feel comfortable voting for the very party that Belinda abandoned this past spring. Bottom line: This will NOT be a Liberal blow-out. Belinda is probably safe for now, but if the Harper campaigns continues to have the momentum and the polls begin to move in the Tories' favour, it is possible that you will see Conservative Lois Brown defeat the Stronach Goliath in Newmarket-Aurora.
26 12 05 Bill Thomas
I think this one is too close to call. Definitely, there is an anti-belinda effort, but I think a lot of Liberal minded voters who voted for Belinda last time will again vote for her. I also think conservatives who didn’t vote because of Belinda will vote this time. Very close race.
In the end, the name rec. will probably push Belinda over the top but just slightly...
22 12 05 JH
Welcome to the most interesting riding in the Canada for this election campaign. CBC, National Post, Toronto Star, Toronto Sun, Globe and Mail, CPAC, TVO, CTV and Global TV have all been to this riding to do news segments. Living in this riding I would be happy to tell everyone what is going on here.
The riding is going to be close. Belinda Stronach as a Conservative won this riding by less than a thousand votes. Since that time she has crossed the floor and is running as a Liberal. Karen Kraft Sloan, a Liberal held this riding for 12 years under the York North boundaries. Aurora-Vaughn-King also went Liberal. In the eighties, John Cole held this riding for the PC Party and defeated Frank Stronach in 1988. Provincially Newmarket tends to vote Conservative while Aurora is Liberal. In the last election Newmarket voted for Belinda while Aurora didn't. Given the profile of this riding, Belinda Stronach and the national campaign; all data for this riding is useless.
There will be five type of voters to watch:
Martha Hall Findlay as a Liberal nearly knocked off Belinda. There is a strong Liberal vote here that should vote for Belinda in most cases, however some may jump to the NDP because of Stronach's wealth or the Conservatives because of the sponsorship scandal and desire for change. There is significant support for Liberals in Newmarket-Aurora but there will be challenges getting them out on election day due to the lost confidence in the political system and their party.
*Belinda Voters:
Belinda has brought profile to this riding after a decade on the backbench. She has a huge role nationally and has name recognition. The Stronach family has done great things for the community. Belinda is good looking and has charisma. There are also a lot of people in the riding who depend on Magna for jobs or who earn a living indirectly from Magna. These people will likely vote for Belinda as a Liberal but voted Conservative last time.
*Conservative Voters:
Clearly there were individuals who voted Belinda Stronach because she was a Conservative first. These people feel betrayed and are bound to come out in full force on election day. There is also a group that stayed home either because they didn't support Belinda's social and religious views as well as a group who stayed home thinking that Belinda would easily win. Lois Brown must get this vote out to win.
*Defeat Belinda Voters:
These voters are not generally clearly partisan people, but do not like the Stronachs, Magna, Belinda's actions/morals/ethics or wealth. Some may vote NDP while not being concerned with a Conservative win. Others will vote Lois Brown in spite. Belinda was nearly defeated in her nomination and on election night in 2004. The big question is how many votes does this make up and where will they cast their vote.
*Voters who support the NDP, Green or Dorian Baxter:
These candidates do not have any chance of being competitive. The question here is how much support will they end up getting and where would they have otherwise voted.
*People who don't vote:
Who will stay home in this election? The Globe and Mail story and perception that this riding isn't likely to be a Tory win may cost the Conservatives some votes. Belinda Stronach as the Liberal candidate and the scandals associated with the Liberal party may keep Liberal voters home. Turnout will likely be lower than last time, but you can bet the Conservative and Anti-Belinda vote will come out.
My gut tells me that Lois Brown will win by a very slim margin. I think the national campaign will play a major role. For Belinda to win, the riding must forgive Belinda's actions, see the move as benefiting her riding and not herself and that the Liberal Party's record or platform justify a move to that side of the house. All three of those points will be tough to make, especially from Belinda Stronach who is not known to be a political beast. Right now the opinion of this community is Belinda crossed the floor for ambition. The Liberal Party has a huge weakness in the sponsorship scandal and it will be tough to attack a Conservative platform she was involved in and supported in March. Factor in what seems to be slow moving momentum for the Conservatives in Ontario, a strong campaign by Harper who is running on platform and several Liberal gaffes already and this guarantees to be a very close race that Belinda is going to have trouble winning. I put the odds at 51-49 in favour of Lois Brown just prior to the holidays.
19 12 05 Shawn
Belinda is going down in this riding. There are blue signs everywhere and the Conservative vote will be out in full force January 23. Belinda will do terrible in the debates and has gotten terrible press so far. How she will respond to that angry voters at the town hall format will be fun to watch. At a debate at Sacred Heart high school she was easily defeated and failed to connect with the youth she claims to champion. She is taking a beating at the door and is greeted with boos at all public events. The negative attention in the national debates will play a role here in this highly educated wealthy riding.
Lois has been campaigning since June and is everywhere including police and hospital fundraisers, legions, religious events, community town hall meetings, fundraisers, retirement homes and door to door. The Conservative campaign team is far bigger and is motivated by principle not pay.
Prediction: Lois takes this vote by a larger margin than Belinda won in 2004. There are five categories here. Conservatives including those who didn't vote last time due to Belinda's stance on traditional marriage/abortion etc., Liberals who voted Martha last time. Paid pro-Belinda cronies and anti-Belinda voters. Finally there is the NDP who seems to be gaining votes and campaign workers from the Liberal side. I predict Lois will win by 1000+, especially if Belinda tanks in the debates and the national campaign goes south. The high profile media attention will be a negative for Belinda to deal with.
17 12 05 jonforest
I'm guessing this is a pretty safe bet for Stronach. As I see it, voters break down into the following groups: Conservatives, Liberals, and Belinda-supporters. Last time, Conservatives + Belinda-supporters were just barely more numerous than the Liberals. This time, the Liberals will have their core-voters and the Belinda group. Combine this with the advantage of incumbency, and Stronach's got a comfortable margin.
15 12 05 Simon P
There is a significant anti Belinda movement in this riding, as I expected the local grassroots liberal organization seems to be scattering. Refer to the submissions way down at the bottom of this blog to see what the libs were saying about Belinda way back when.
15 12 05 mel
I know the people on the NDP campaign, none of them are Liberals. It's the same group as last time, so they may be able to get 10% of the vote, which may allow Angry Lois to do all right, but I still think the Liberals will win. I have seen Belinda twice already, and I have yet to see Lois.
11 12 05 Andrew L.
I predict Lois Brown, the Conservative candidate will win by just a hair. Many former Liberal supporters in this riding have already switched to the NDP, Conservatives are running an aggressive campaign against Belinda. In the end it will basically run down to which side will win: pro-Belinda or anti-Belinda. I think that with the left wing split between the NDP and Liberals, Conservatives can repaint this riding Tory Blue.
11 12 05 Tom Howard
It is a joke that this site has this riding listed as Liberal. First of all the national party has not written this riding off. Rona Ambrose, Helena Guergis, Monte Solberg, Vic Toews, Scott Reid, Peter Van Loan, Frank Klees, and several other MPs have been in the riding supporting Lois. National party is throwing a lot of resources and you can expect a few big guns to come in here in January. National party knows this riding is a possible win. They will do all they can to take it back.
Second Stronach is having a tough time here. She only has 40 volunteers. She was booed at the local Santa Clause parade. Paul Martin mostly got negative press. The Era Banner is filled with comments from voters angry with the Liberals and Newmarket is a sea of blue in terms of lawn signs. With all the media here, Belinda cannot knock on doors or go out in public due to the negative reactions of real people.
11 12 05 Michael M
I have been following the media attention in this riding you will quickly see that more residents are supporting the Liberal party, for many years when this riding was apart it was a Liberal stronghold. The support in this riding is very present towards Belinda Stronach. The only things I heard from Lois Brown is "Bring down Belinda" and the scandal and just garbage no one wont to hear. Lois Brown is a Neoconservative (aka Blue Tory). People will be even angrier if Belinda Stronach did not quit the Conservatives. Belinda will win.
09 12 05 Conservative Insider
Nothing personal, but we've written this one off -- Ms. Stronach, as much as we hate her, will win. The National organization is not pouring resources into it, and that tells you what we think of our chances. For those looking for a place to help, this isn't it.
08 12 05 Chris E
If you have been following the media attention in this riding you will quickly see that more residents are taking Conservative lawn signs, the Conservative campaign team is larger and the anger in this riding is very present towards Belinda Stronach. I predict that not only will Belinda lose, but she will lose in a landslide. Half of Martha Hall Findley's campaign team is supporting the NDP.
29 11 05 Alsadius
The only question in this riding is whether the Belinda vote or the anti-Belinda vote is stronger. And, to be honest, I don't have a damned clue which it is. Belinda's done a lot of things to piss people off, and she's still not exactly the most able of a politician, but she's still a Cabinet minister running in a riding where her family name carries a hell of a lot of weight(because they employ a large portion of the electorate, among other things).
16 11 05 John Thomas
What a great chance the Conservatives had to return the riding to Tory blue. But the national party forced a nomination date on the association,
not allowing any serious candidates to organize so they chose Lois Brown. Lois may be a very nice lady but represents all that is wrong with the Conservative Party. She is a hard core reformer, the type the new Conservatives can not afford to have. They would have been better off running Elvis Preistly. They local Conservatives could have had Peter MacKay come to the riding, this would make great sense and a lot of fun, or they could bring in Stephen Harper to show how important they think this riding is but who do they bring in to speak? Ezra Levent.
We all remember Ezra he was self proclaimed "Stock-a-holic" a hard core refomer and soon a western sepratest.The federal Conservative party have given this riding to Belinda, and if she losses and Lois wins It will be because the local voters were mad at Belinda NOT because of the local Conservative candidate or Stephen Harper, and thats a shame.
10 11 05 M Jones
Belinda Stronach is the minister of democratic renewal despite not being democratically elected as a Liberal. She is responsible for proping up a corrupt Liberal government. She has been missing in action since May. Newmarket is traditionally conservative. Aurora liberal. Newmarket has the bigger population. There is a lot of anger in this riding at what Belinda did and it is impossible to see how she will defend the Liberal record over the past 12 years as well as her own record. At the end of the day, I just simply cannot see her pulling off a win in this riding.
20 09 05 JP Wells
The Liberals almost won last time with a no-name candidate. The campaign team worked magic during the election, and they almost pulled off what would have been the biggest upset of the election. I understand Belinda has appointed the same Liberal campaign manager to run her campaign this time. That should ensure that the Liberal support stays Liberal and goes with Belinda, which was over 21,000 last time, and a lot of Belinda's 21,800 votes were personal votes for her, so they will vote for Belinda again. The fact that the Cons have nominated Lois Brown, who is essentially a female version of Stephen Harper, will help even more. Last time voters wanted Martin way more than Harper, but at the same time, wanted Stronach more than Hall Findlay, so it balanced out. This time, they will choose Martin over Harper AND Stronach over Brown, so the Libs will win. It may still be tight, but they will win.
15 09 05 Michael M
Will her wealth be accepted by the left wing voters in the riding? Yes Belinda will be accepted by the Centre, Centre-Left, Left wing voters. like I said before Belinda Stronach has bean working hard and did alot in Newmarket-Aurora. Some NDP voters voted for Belinda Stronach in 2004. Belinda cross the floor for the people of Newmarket-Aurora. Belinda will win a Landslide in 2005/2006. There is alot of Belinda fans out there that thay will vote for her regardless.
28 08 05 EraBanner
This will be the most exciting race in the country and will have a tonne of media coverage. It will also be a symbol of how the Liberals are doing in Ontario and will likely foreshadow the results nationally in terms of which party will hold power in a minority government. While Belinda is a star candidate, she doesn't have the popularity to win this riding on her own regardless of which party she runs for this time.
Some key factors in this riding will be:
*The national mood and the mood in Ontario towards the Liberals: While Belinda can count on some percentage of her Conservative votes last time coming with her, she must also account for pervious Liberal votes going to either the NDP or the Conservatives depending on where fence sitting Liberals stand in the political spectrum. If the Liberals begin to tank, Stronach will be defeated here. Belinda can also count on facing a lot of hostility in the riding, tougher debates and tougher media coverage this time around.
*Perception of Belinda Stronach Crossing the Floor: Belinda is popular and gets a lot of media coverage, but she also turns a lot of people off. In the Conservative nomination she barely beat Lois Brown. In the election, she lost to Martha Hall Findley on election night and was bailed out by the advanced polls. She has played a big role, but the question is how do people see her in this riding. Most of her press coverage focused on her relationship with Peter MacKay, her wealth and sense of fashion and crossing the floor for a cabinet post. The only issue she spoke frequently about was gay marriage. Liberal Karen Kraft Sloan was a backbench MP for years with no voice (hense Belinda's slogan: A Strong Voice for Newmarket-Aurora). The question with Belinda is all publicity good publicity, or has she been slammed too much by the media over the past year. Belinda was also elected as a moderate Conservative with potential to become a future Prime Minister. Today no expert considers Belinda a serious candidate for the Liberal leadership within the next ten years. Belinda is also not a great speaker, strong debater or approachable candidate. How she is able to defend the Liberal record and her own actions will be entertaining to watch.
While some Liberals are happy that she crossed, Conservatives are angry and will come out in huge numbers to defeat her. On top of that, social conservatives who stayed home or voted for Baxter in protest will also likely come out in full force. Will the Liberal support come out in the winter? Will Belinda be able to unite a Liberal campaign team who worked hard to defeat her less than a year ago? Will her wealth be accepted by the left wing voters in the riding? Will Harper or any MP make a damaging comment during the campaign? Will Martin be successful in painting Harper as scary? These are the questions that will shape how this riding will vote.
At the end of the day how the Liberals are viewed at the time of the election will determine how this riding goes. If the Liberals are still in the lead, gaining traction with scare tactics and look likely to win a minority government, people will see Belinda as a cabinet minister and a big voice for the riding. They may also be more willing to accept that Harper is too extreme for mainstream Canadians thereby accepting her crossing the floor despite not consulting voters who elected her as a Conservative. If the Liberals face a downward spiral, the voters will likely see Belinda as exactly what is wrong with the political process today and will question how a rich elite who was given a job at Magna and in Cabinet due to her last name relates to everyday people.
This is an educated, wealthy riding with little diversity and rural elements. It is urban but sees itself as small town. North of us is a strong Conservative riding where Peter Van Loan will easily win. South is a strong Liberal riding where Bryon Wilfert will easily win. Big issues that may effect the campaign will be gas prices, transportation and the commute into Toronto, healthcare, education, sponsorship, Belinda crossing the floor and taxes. Traditional definition of marriage may come up due to Belinda's strong support to the gay marriage bill. Last election we also found polls didn't mean much. The national post had Belinda in the 60% range last time but by the time the election day came she was almost defeated.
My prediction is whoever becomes next Prime Minister of Canada will have a seat in Newmarket-Aurora. Major players from both parties will be visiting here and the media will be everywhere. My gut is that Magna will have their CEO back this time next year.
09 08 05 Craig
Looking at the dynamics here, I've come to the conclusion that this will be a strong Liberal hold with Belinda Stronach on side. True, she couldn't get the so-cons on side as a Conservative, but how many are there in this affluent suburban riding (and in today's world, affluent generally means socially liberal, fiscally conservative). Local Conservative resources would be better spent trying to swing Barrie, Simcoe-Grey and other middle-class exurban/rural seats over. It actually won't be that close. Predicted results: LIB 53%, CPC 30%, NDP 9%, GRN 6%, others 2%.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Belinda Stronach will easily win re-election. The fact she barely won as a Conservative and would have lost had it not been for the advanced polls means many voters are uncomfortable with Stephen Harper. I suspect a good chunk of those who elected her as a Conservative voted Conservative because they liked Belinda, not because they are Stephen Harper type Conservatives. Unlike York-Simcoe which is a rural riding and will probably stay Conservative, this is a suburban riding more in line with Oak Ridges-Markham so I expect the results to be similar to what they were in Oak Ridges-Markham last time around. I do think the Tories will win this provincially since John Tory is more a Belinda Stronach type Tory as opposed to a Stephen Harper type.
01 07 05 L. Anderson
Belinda in a walk. If the crossing-the-floor issue looks likely to lose her the seat, she can simply display the "training materials" used by Stephen Harper's team to prepare candidates for the anticipated 2004 election. These materials feature a list of "things not to do", and some footage of awkward performances or errors by candidates. A disproportionate number of which shots were of Belinda herself. She did not walk for no reason: the mechanics of the party are run by Harper so tightly that no other leadership contender has a chance to form serious relationships with the candidates. This will backfire, and has backfired, on Harper, who is simply incapable of governing a diverse country.
Anyone who thinks "traditional definition of marriage" is going to be an election issue hasn't checked out the demographics, or rather geriatrics, on that point of view: not only did Belinda take the position she did as a Conservative leadership candidate and as a Conservative candidate for the Newmarket seat, she has acted on it: moving to a party that shares it. If she was going to lose votes over this, then, she lost them in 2003 and has no more to lose in 2005.
Belinda is also the HRDC minister which is a seriously powerful position.
With Red Tories in charge of Public Works (Brisson) and HRDC (Stronach), and a former NDP premier in charge of Health (Dosanjh), what's not to like about the Paul Martin Liberals?
Martin has proven himself a master at getting others to cross the floor -in some cases (Keith Martin) without even giving up a cabinet post for it.
History may well record that Stronach sunk Harper and his Party, and prevented them ever from making any breakthrough to Toronto, Quebec, or in Maritime or Newfoundland ridings where they did not have a very strong PC provincial base.
07 06 05 Morgan
I agree that voters in this riding voted for Belinda IN SPITE of her political affiliation (CPC) not because of it. This is a more likely Liberal riding, and she will win by a much larger margin than when she ran for the CPC.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
I think Belinda Stronach will narrowly win this since she only won by 700 votes last time around and many moderate Conservatives who are uncomfortable with Stephen Harper only voted Conservative since Belinda Stronach represented the more moderate wing. Some will be unhappy at the fact she is a turncoat and some may see her as an opportunist, but many will see this as proof the Conservatives are just as right wing as the old Reform and the US Republicans since if moderates like Belinda couldn't tolerate Stephen Harper, then that likely means he is too right wing to govern. Unlike York-Simcoe which is a rural riding where social conservatism sells well, this is a suburban riding that is fiscally conservative which is why the Tories do well here provincially, but socially liberal.
01 06 05 TAN
We may now be baking big cherry pies instead of big blueberry ones, but I don't think that will matter too much in terms of who Newmarket--Aurora sends to Ottawa. Considering Scott Brison held on quite handily last time in a constituency with virtually no Liberal history, without cabinet-grade air support, and with the X-factor of the national media going on and on about his sexual orientation until every stop sign in Kings--Hants knew he was gay, I think Belinda will be quite ok.
27 05 05 Leo lehman
This reminds me of Scott Brison, every conservative on the east coast set out to beat him and they couldn't. Same in Newmarket. Belinda will take this seat easily
25 05 05
As I see it there are probably three important groups of voters here. (1) There are Liberal voters (who will vote Liberal regardless), (2) there are Conservative voters (who will vote Conservative regardless), and (3) there are Belinda voters. Last time, (2) & (3) was barely bigger than (1). I suspect that Belinda's personal support, when combined with the Liberal vote, will be enough to carry the day.
25 05 05 Hootie
Belinda in a walk - she'll take it by 6,000 this time and spank whomever Team Harper puts up.
Her move was about personal ambition - and she wouldn't put her re-election in jeopardy for the sake of a Cabinet post. She's obviously done her homework, and knew what she was doing before she visited 24 Sussex. I suspect the budget, Liberal brand, timing of the election, and popularity of Paul Martin are all positive factors in this riding for Belinda.
And besides, who are the Conservative's going to run....? Lois Brown? Give me a break.
25 05 05 Aric H
Well I just saw the show that CPAC broadcast tonight where Belinda Stronach was interviewed and took calls from her constituents. While there were a few negative calls, I have to say that most of them were positive and fairly supportive overall. Along with her high profile and personal popularity and the fact that this seat is liberal/red tory, I say she will be elected as a Liberal in the next election unless the Liberals really drop in Ontario.
23 05 05 A.S.
Okay. All team-switching aside, let's extrapolate from 2004's results. First, had Karen Kraft Sloan decided to run for reelection, it's reasonably safe to presume an echo of Colleen Beaumier's defeat of Tony Clement in Brampton West. Second, had it been Martha Hall Findlay running against a comparative nobody (or Lois Brown), the end result would likely have had more in common w/Oak Ridges-Markham to the S than York-Simcoe to the N. And finally, had Belinda been the Liberal standard-bearer then, we could well have witnessed the high-50s/60s Grit percentage stratosphere of the southern-tier York Region seats. In the final analysis, Newmarket-Aurora is just too urban-GTA-like, all the more so for lacking the rural/exurban swaths of Oak Ridges-Markham. Still doesn't guarantee Belinda "That's Hot" Stronach's reelection--after all, Newmarket was Ground Zero for Mike Harris's winning provincial campaigns. But that was back when Belinda types were on-side.
22 05 05 GI Joe
Of course Churchill changed parties twice and Kilgour left two parties. Like Senator Benson said of Danny Quayle, Belinda, you're no Churchill in fact you're not much of a David Kilgour either. I'm sure you could slip into Ben Arnold's shows though (as long as they were fashionable)
Bottom line is Daddy's money couldn't buy HIM a seat in the house of commons as a Liberal, it isn't going to work for her either. She had money last time and barely squeaked out a win in an area that is small c conservative. Because of her "leadership" aspirations this should have been the safest Tory seat in Ontario. Belinda, you aren't LIKEABLE and you are out of touch with Canadians who don't have the opportunity to sell $4 million in stock the same day they are made a cabinet minister. At least you are not as likeable as say a toothache or maybe cancer. Adieu Ms. Stronach your "career"in politics is over.
20 05 05 Morgan
Now that Stronach has left the Republican Party North, I think that this riding will stick with her and go Liberal. The close vote in 2004 indicates that voters chose Stronach by a close margin despite the fact that she ran for the CPC, and not because of it. She won because she was a high profile candidate, yet despite her more socially progressive views, too many voters in the riding were uncomfortable with the CPC’s backward social policies for her to have won by a large margin. Now that voters no longer have to worry about supporting the CPC's extreme right-wing agenda by voting for Stronach, I think she will win by a larger margin. Also, certain items in the budget, which she fought to pass, should be beneficial for the riding.
20 05 05 Conservative Friend
With Belinda's defection to the liberal party, many who voted for her are enraged. On the local talk radio CFRB 1010, many callers call in very upset saying, they didn't vote Belinda because she was a pretty woman, because if they were, the could have chose Martha Hall-Finley (who is as equally attractive!). They chose a Conservative member, not a Prime-Minister wannabe! It will be VERY close, but I predict a conservative win!
20 05 05 Mike
Now that Stronach has "seen the light" and abandoned the CPC, watch her take her riding with a huge majority. This isn't even going to be a race. The other parties would be wise to run paper candidates here.
19 05 05 Craig
Now that Belinda Stronach has crossed the floor, there are a lot of unknowns that come into play.
1) In 2004, was the Stronach narrow win a vote for the Conservatives or a vote for Stronach? I say it was about a 70-30 split with 70% of the Stronach vote last time supporting the party.
2) How many social conservatives stayed home knowing they had nowhere to turn? Will they re-appear under a new Conservative candidate and are there enough to make a difference here? I say to some extent, but that will only result in about 2,000 more votes (mostly from the longtime residents of Newmarket and Aurora), as the riding was pared down to eliminate the rural areas. Being an affluent riding, social conservatism doesn't really fly that much, unlike in neighboring York-Simcoe.
3) Will Martha Hall Findlay's vote from last time shift to Stronach, shift to the NDP or Conservatives or stay home? I think it will be split quite widely, with about half staying with the Liberals, 20% staying home and the other 30% split between the NDP and CPC and fringe parties.
Predicted results after the Belinda shocker: LIB 40%, CPC 39%, NDP 14%, GRN 5%, others 2%. Too close to call, it will come down to how the reaction plays out.
18 05 05 Anonymous
Belinda Stronach will take this riding. It never truly was a blue riding. She won in the last election because of her name, not her party. Lois Brown is a good candidate, but Belinda will take the Liberal votes from last time, and add on some of the people that voted for her as a Conservative last time. I suspect her margin of victory will be greater.
18 05 05 BrianJA
Anybody who says that THE HONOURABLE Belinda Stronach will lose her riding due to her defection is dreaming. If anything, the fact that Stronach is now a Liberal will make her win this riding with even more votes.
18 05 05 BM
I'm surprised that, given recent events, there haven't been a flood of predictions for the riding. In my opinion, on this site, generally a lot of comments put too much emphasis on local candidates, when most voters are content to judge a party on its leader and its platform. However, when a riding has the highest-profile candidate in the land, it's a different story. Given the narrow margin of Stronach's victory last time and the former Liberal candidate's graceful stepping aside, I think Stronach can convince Liberal and moderate Tory voters to back her as a Liberal.
18 05 05 First name, last initial please.
Given Stronach's defection to the liberal party, I believe that she will retain her seat in the next federal election. Stronach was a classic Red Tory, and knowing that I believe that some of her (formerly) Conservative constituency will continue to back her rather than whoever wins the Conservative nomination.
18 05 05 Simon P
Belinda has no idea how hard the conservative core will work in this riding
to upset her political aspirations. Martha Hall Findley's camp aren’t too pleased and none too motivated to jump on the Belinda band wagon, just read what libs have written in these posts. No, I dont think there are too many overjoyed liberals in Newmarket Aurora. Martha Hall Findley was a sound candidate, as would Lois Brown have been for the PC's. Yet, it isn’t in the bag for Lois, expect Harper to parachute a high profile candidate to square up with Belinda. This of course presumes Martin will hand pick Belinda and stop nominations. Expect a big "DOH" from the libs.
18 05 05 Grip On Reality
Let me go out on a limb here and predict that...Martha Hall Findlay will not win this riding! Seeing as she has stepped aside to let Belinda Stronach run as a Liberal, I think I'm pretty safe in making that prediction, but I could yet be proven wrong.
However, I am quite confidant of the fact that Belinda Stronach will definitely not win this riding. She could barely do it as a Conservative (less than 700 votes last time). It just got a whole lot more difficult to do as a Liberal. Every motivated Conservative campaigner & fundraiser in the country will be helping out here in some way. I think local Liberals will be staying home until the circus has left town.
18 05 05 CM
With Belinda Stronach moving to the Liberal party, this riding could go either way. Belinda has not been very popular, and neither has the Liberal Party. It all depends which conservative runs here.
18 05 05 voter
I think there is going to be voter backlash against Belinda. She was bought and paid for by the Liberals. I don't think the voters will go for it.
17 05 05 Michael M
BELINDA STRONACH IS NOT GOING TO LOSE. Belinda is very well-respected,popular, and well liked. it's only wishful thinking on the part of some eager people to say that she's going down this time. She will win.
17 05 05 IGB
Well, Belinda is a Liberal cabinet minister now, which really changes the dynamic in this riding. Belinda was always a Liberal at heart, I guess, and her defection proves it. This means that the Liberals will do a lot to protect her in this riding, putting in money and resources (not that she doesn't have plenty of her own), because the loss of a cabinet minister never bodes well. However, the Conservatives will no doubt be rightly pissed at what she did and will no doubt do a lot to win this riding, especially if they manage to nominate a top-tier candidate. The NDP really isn't a factor here. It can go either of two ways -- not easy to predict this riding, which will be a race to watch.
17 05 05 RedTory
This submission comes on May 17th. After reviewing the previous posts, I see that many people in the riding like Belinda and are going to vote for her. Many others like Belinda but dislike Stephen Harper and the Conservatives and are going to vote against her. Also, as in the previous election there is an element within the Tory Party to knock Belinda out of the running for the leadership. Now all the problems have been solved. Belinda runs as a Liberal, Liberals are happy, Tories are happy, everyone happy, especially Belinda. Sorry Martha.
17 05 05 Carl
With Ms. Stronach joining the liberal party and Ms. Findlay steeping down from running as the liberal candidate in the riding, I firmly believe Ms. Stronach will win this riding again. Her personal charisma and liberal leaning views already fit well with the residents of the riding and it seems likely she will win regardless of the banner she carries.
17 05 05 D. G.
Belinda crossing the floor will give the Liberals this seat.
I think a lot of people in Newmarket/Aurora voted Belinda but cringed doing it last time because they were uncomfortable with the Harper agenda which made this riding the close race it was.
Belinda's fiscal conservative/social liberal views are much more Liberal than Conservative party as they now stand.
The voters in the riding can now reconcile their vote for Belinda with a party that better represents their views, regardless of Gomery. Liberal Acquisition.
17 05 05 ToJo
Well this riding got a lot easier to pick. A traditional Liberal riding that voted for Ms. Stronach, not the Conservatives. After her defection today (which I may say is the most shocking thing I've ever seen in Canadian politcs), this seat moves safely into the Liberal camp.
17 05 05 M
The crossing of the aisle by Belinda Stronach will only help the Liberals. This could very well be the death blow for the Conservative party as other small "l" conservatives go with her. With Ms. Findlay-Hall stepping aside willingly, this riding along with some other Conservative held ridings should go back to the Liberals.
17 05 05 LS
Now that Belinda has crossed the floor, she should have absolutely no problem taking the seat. She's a cabinet minister and a rising star, so she should win.
17 05 05 Alberta Grit
Stronach has crossed the floor! She's now a Liberal cabinet minister! This guarentees this seat for the Grits. You think the Liberals came clsoe last time? Look for the Grits to win by over 2000 votes this time. Prdiction: Lib:45%, CPC 35%. NDP 15%, Green 5%
17 05 05 Karen P
I was going to say that Belinda could easily win this riding under any party's banner and then I woke up this morning to discover that she was jumping to the Liberals. The fact of the matter is that Paul Martin's Liberals continue to hover around the same point that they were at in the last election, Belinda is going to be far better known than anyone that the Conservatives can all of a sudden shake out of the bushes, and she has a huge machine working behind her. Personally, looking at the social views of Belinda I think she has actually joined a party better suited for her and I would agree that under Harper's leadership the party is moving away from Canadians, particularly in Ontario. This one will be Belinda's and I bet with an even larger majority than before as the local Liberals will certainly embrace her and I imagine she will take a lot of her supporters, particularly the younger ones, with her from the Conservative side. Good job Belinda!
17 05 05 JKY
With Stronach's defection, this has just turned into a whole new ballgame. Certainly I believe Stronach will be re-elected, but we may not have to worry about that until Winter 2006. The Tories will be demoralized, especially in Ontario. I now am expecting a Liberal Minority Gov't, very likely with a full balance of power for the NDP
17 05 05 MJL
Now that Belinda has jumped ship to the Liberals, if she runs here (I'm not sure how they would deal with this) the seat should move into the Liberal column. Last election Belinda's [thoroughly undeserved] star power (and the fact that Magna employs a looot of people here) allowed her to buck the overall trend in the 905.
With the Tories scrambling to find a candidate, it is very unlikely that they will put up the necessary resources to beat the Stronach machine in this riding. Might voters punish Belinda for jumping ship? Possible - but she was jumping ship to avoid an unpopular election and did have some real differences with most of the Conservative party. On the plus side, if Martin wins a minority we can expect many gaffes from a woman who couldn't cut it at York University (she was fine on spoons but those forks were too tricky).
17 05 05 Rebel
Stronach's defection will obviously throw this riding race into question. It appears that she is taking no one of importance from her former campaign organization. Will local Conservatives be angered and energized or dismayed and dissolutioned. That will be the tale of what happens in this riding.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
I said I have yet to see a good reason why any tory ridings would turn Liberal. Now I have. Stronach will be re-elected here with a huge majority, as a Liberal. She has the personal populairty to win here as a tory, she can do it as a grit, which has a bigger base of support.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
GASP! Belinda crossed the floor! She will keep the riding for sure now that she no longer represents a party that's socially conservative. Liberal voters will vote for her, Belinda voters will vote for her, the Conservatives have lost this riding (they only won it because of Belinda). We think the interesting ramification will be the dashed hope of Conservative wins in suburban GTA.
17 05 05 Steven
With Belinda Stronach turning coats to the Liberals who knows what'll happen now. Even if she loses some of the support she had as a Tory, it was a very close race in 2004. She may narrowly win it again with a different party. However, the loss of Ms. Stronach in the House will not be a serious one.
17 05 05 Tim C.
Seeing now that Belinda Stronach is a liberal (and has received the riding sponsorhip from the liberals), I think that it is safe to say she will get most of the Liberal votes, and many of the Conservative votes that she got from name recognition.
17 05 05 DN
Well today pretty much cleared up who is going to win this seat: Belinda the new Liberal. (Welcome home, Belinda). I suppose the only real question now is will there even be an election?
17 05 05 Nick
I definitely see Belinda getting re-elected here. Her social liberalism combined with her popularity will be enough. Even more, now that she's crossed the floor and will now be running for the Liberals, she has cemented a victory here should there be a spring election.
17 05 05 james
Even without Belinda the conservatives will win this seat. I think voters will see her as an opportunist.
16 05 05 Ashley Morton
I might as well list this contribution here, though it actually applies to a number of ridings, particularly throughout Ontario (e.g. Niagara Falls). Any riding that *could* go Liberal on the basis of "the campaign here was weak last time, with only a tiny bit more effort, the Libs'll be in, in a walk" won't for one big reason: The Liberals don't have the money. They have less money by a long shot this time around. This isn't a stab at "...now that they're not stealing taxpayers' money in Quebec" - I'm not analysing the reason for their weakened state at all. It's just basic finances. So while I don't think that Stronach has made herself phenomenally popular, I don't think that the Liberals will be able to pick up significant ground if it would require any extra organizational capacity. They have less, not more.
16 05 05 Michael M
GJ & S. Goldstein. Belinda Stronach has bean working hard and did alot in Newmarket-Aurora. Belinda Stronach is really a Social Democrat. Some NDP voters voted for Belinda Stronach.
17 05 05 A.G.
This will be a landslide liberal victory. With former conservative Stronach attracting votes from fiscal conservatives towards the Centre-right wing of the Liberal party and most of her constituents rejecting social conservatism she will not only fare better than last time but also open herself up to a whole new panel of voters. However, many of her former supporters will now jump ranks. Left leaning Liberals will now unite behind the N.D.P. and Anti-Liberal voters will probably realize that the N.D.P. is the only other alternative in the district. Probably 30,000+ votes for Stronach and 15,000+ for Chudack and 10,000+ votes for whoever the conservatives nominate, probably someone loud enough to get just enough more voters out than last time.
12 05 05 Initial
I was involved in the last campaign with Martha, and it was a very
sleepy campaign. They had fewer than 50 volunteers on election day, but only lost by 600 votes! I don't think the Libs will make the same mistake this time!
11 05 05 Craig
I'm going to go out on a limb and predicted Martha Hall Findlay will take this seat back in possibly the only Liberal pickup in all of Canada. For all her name recognition, Stronach is not a 'real' conservative, and that will keep a lot of right-wing voters at home or in the hands of fringe parties. In addition, AdScam has not played out as much in the Toronto area as anywhere else. Predicted results: LIB 43%, CPC 38%, NDP 10%, GRN 4%, others 4%.
10 05 05 Koby
Belinda Stronach may be socially liberal, but her party is not and Harper makes it pretty clear where people with her beliefs fit into the party hierarchy; they are in the wrong party.
The difference between Stronach and her party will come out in what is sure to be a highly charged campaign. In the end, the people of Newmarket Aurora will vote for a candidate whose party backs “legislated social liberalism”.
10 05 05 York Region Godfather
While Belinda Stronach is well known, it should be noted that there are a lot of conservatives that are not please with her position on Tradition Definition of Marriage. This will hurt her and her numbers will be close again and she could also lose this time with local conservatives working elsewhere and not voting period. Belinda needs to remember that she is in and represents the North 905 and not Toronto Centre - Rosedale. It will be a close one again, unless a conservative wave and right now that isn't happening.
09 05 05 Shawn
Belinda will loose this riding. She has little support in her own party, and the fact last year she barely won her own nomination and barely won her own seat. Belinda is all image and no substances, and the people of Newmarket-Aurora know it. Look for the people of Newmarket-Aurora to elect somebody with some substance and thier own beliefs. Belinda is going to loose this riding and prevent her from ever trying to take over the Conservative party.
09 05 05 S. Goldstein
Some interesting submissions, but they're largely fluff pieces. The fact of the matter is that Belinda is not popular in Newmarket-Aurora, as was seen in the last election, and she's done little in the riding since then to boost her popularity. She's still seen as a rich kid with little connection to the issues that real people face. I think the media will scrutinize this riding during the election, and without her staff scripting her at every step, Belinda will be in trouble.
09 05 05 J. Walsh
From what I hear, Hall Findlay's sleepy campaign from last time was the result of the Liberal Party thinking the riding was a lost cause. They were stung big time in the last round. Rumour has it that major resources are going to Hall Findlay this time around, including a professional campaign team, visits by ministers and a boost in her ground campaign with visits by the young liberal campaign bus. I may be partisan, but I know that this riding was the Liberals' to lose last time, and they won't make the same mistake twice.
08 05 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
This one will goes this time again to Belinda. The conservative are higher in the poll(even if they don't form the next governement) and Belinda is a minister in waiting. She has a good presence in her riding. Sure this one goes to conservative.
08 05 05 GJ
The reason this is too close to call is because it is too close to call. I know the Conservatives on this board love to hype up the supposed heiress to the Conservative throne but you guys did the same thing in the last election and Belinda just squeaked by. She does NOT have a hold on this seat, many in the riding, myself included after dealing with her office just three weeks ago, are wondering what she is doing for the riding. She needs to park her ambitions at the door and get back to being our Member of Parliament a bit more. I wont vote for her a second time, and while I may or may not vote liberal it will be for however I think will actually work on being a local MP and not a national peice of eye candy.
04 05 05 Neal
Why this has ben pegged as too close to call i don't know. As much as I want the Liberals out, if I lived in Newmarket-aurora, I would not vote for this "CINO" (Conservative in name only). Her social liberal positions make her indistinguishable from a Liberal or Dipper, but to suggest that someone who has so skilfully kept herself in the Public eye, to the point of probably being the best known Tory in caucus apart from Mr. Harper himself could be defeated when the Liberals have Adscam hanging over their heads like the sword of Damocles is absurd.
To make matters worse for any Liberal opponent is the fact that Ms Stronach is seen as the heir(ess) apparent to the leadership of the CPC, so it is unlikely that Newmarket will send her to the trashcan of history.
02 05 05 ML
Belinda will win this riding single handily. She is too socially moderate (i.e. pro same sex marriage, pro-choice) for her to be painted as a neo-con by the Libs, as they are likely going to be doing to the whole Con party.
02 05 05 Interested voter
Belinda Stronach will take this one with the margin that the Compas poll had identified early in the 2004 campaign - somewhere near 59%. The only reason why this was close last time had to do with the Ontario collapse of the Tory vote due to Randy White's blabfest. This time the crazies have been eliminated from the party, and Stronach's high profile will make this an easy win.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Last time around Belinda Stronach narrowly won and would have lost had it not been for the advanced polls. However since she is a social liberal unlike most other caucus members, has shown a great ability to learn to be an effective International Trade Critic and may very well be Stephen Harper's successor, I think she will win again by a slightly larger margin, although it won't be a landslide since many 905 residents are still uncomfortable with Stephen Harper and this could cause a possible upset, although as much as I dislike Stephen Harper, I hope she is re-elected.
02 05 05 Brandon
The Liberals are down in the polls and the Tories are up since the last election. The only reason Newmarket-Aurora went CPC last time was because of Belinda Stronach. Since then, she has been one of the most high-profile MP's on Parliament Hill. The riding will go Conservative again because of her and maybe her alone.
27 04 05 Alex
Stronach will win this again - this time by a much larger margin. I hear that Martha Hall Findlay will run again as the candidate for the Liberals. I guess they still can't find anyone local to do the job. Rumour has it the local Liberals are not supportive of MHF while the Conservative EDA is stronger and more organized than ever before. Add in the federal Liberal mess and the fact that Stronach has done an admirable job since elected last year, this one shouldn't be close.

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