Update/Mise à jour:
12:22 PM 17/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:31 PM 05/05/2005
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Markham-Unionville
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Progressive Canadian
Fayaz Choudhary
Independent
Partap Dua
NDP/NPD
Janice Hagan
Conservative/conservateur
Joe Li
Libearl/libéral
John McCallum
Green/Vert
Wesley Weese

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. John McCallum

2004 Result/Résultats:
John McCallum
30442
Joe Li
10325
Janice Hagan
3993
Ed Wong
1148

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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17 01 06 N.D.
This is a very safe Liberal seat. If this goes CPC on the 23rd then they will be winning 75+ seats in the province. Although McCallum (as others have noted) isn't anything special, the conservative candidate does not have a lot of draw either. Had the conservatives run a well known name (ie. ie former MP Jim Jones), they might - MIGHT - have made a run for it, but even then with the southern part of this riding typically voting 70-80% liberal, it would take a huge Tory surge in Ontario to put them over the top. McCallum will be going back to Ottawa...
01 12 05 GK
In response to AS, the swing in 2000 wasn't as anomalous as it might seem-Remember that Jag Bhaduria embarrassed the whole community in 1994, and the Tories ran a hometown boy in Jim Jones the next time around. Nevertheless, it probably would have gone Liberal in 97 with a decent candidate. Regardless of McCallum's uselessness as an MP, his economic credentials carry huge sway, not to mention the previous poster's point about social conservatism. I would have said his margin of victory could be eroded this time, but the Tories have nominated the uninspiring Joe Li yet again. Until Peter MacKay takes the reins, this on is solid Liberal every time.
16 05 05 Craig
South York Region has become politically more 416 than 905 almost overnight, and that equates to what has now become a Liberal stronghold. John McCallum, despite his past issues, will breeze his way back to Parliament Hill, although it may be either on the government or opposition benches. A moderate Conservative leader like Belinda Stronach may be able to do well here (while losing support in the hinterlands) but social conservatism doesn't resonate here. Predicted results: LIB 61%, CPC 24%, NDP 11%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
15 05 05 A.S.
If you want an illustration of how disastrous the attempt to pass off the new Conservative Party as the natural successor to the old Progressive Conservative party was, Markham went 180 degrees from being Ontario's only PC seat in 1997 to giving the Grits their highest Ontario percentage in 2004! Of course, changing/increasingly Asian-izing demos help, as well as the cleaving off of the erstwhile best Tory polls of Old Markham--but even those went with the Grit flow in their absence. And this was all after John McCallum's cabinet (and literal *hic*) shakiness--sympathy factor plays a part, too? And against an Asian Tory, too. Now, if Belinda were leader instead, would things be different...
15 05 05 Rebel
McCallum has indeed had several cabinet posts...in the downward spiril of his career. While his actual career has demonstrated that his "star" prospects have all but evaporated, that will not stop him from being re-elected...unless he has difficulty at the Liberal nomination meeting, should there be one.
08 05 05 Aric H
Conservatives cannot win a riding like this where the Libs won last time by 20,000 votes. John McCallum is also a high-profile MP who has held various cabinet positions. It is interesting because this riding was PC as recently as the 1997 election but went Liberal again in 2000 when Jean Chretien appointed John M, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, as a star candidate, and it has been his riding since then.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
This is a centre-right riding that was comfortable with the Old PCs, but finds the new Conservative Party a little too right wing, so John McCallum, win or lose for the liberals, will be returning to Ottawa. He had the best showing in Ontario percentage wise for the liberals so this will stay liberal. Besides there has been a lot of people from the 416 area moving out to the 905 belt so the Conservative voting patterns from the 90s don't apply anymore. This riding might go Conservative provincially since John Tory is more moderate and maybe if Belinda Stronach eventually becomes conservative leader, but as long as Stephen Harper or some other Reform/Alliance type leads the Conservatives, they will continue to lose this riding.



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