Update/Mise à jour:
8:56 AM 23/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:20 PM 22/01/2006
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Kenora
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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NDP/NPD
Susan Barclay
Conservative/conservateur
Bill Brown
Libearl/libéral
Roger Valley
Green/Vert
Dave Vasey

Incumbent/Député:
Roger Valley

2004 Result/Résultats:
Roger Valley
8563
Susan Barclay
7577
Bill Brown
6598
Carl Chaboyer
898

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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22 12 05 MDF+
NDP candidate Susan Barclay is an Anglican priest who has had a lot of trouble with her bishop since part-way through the last campaign. In fact, she has resigned her parish and has been working at a secular job.
The Bishop of Keewatin, David Ashdown, was once a provincial Liberal candidate in Saskatchewan.
Coincidence?
Certainly Susan has a chance. Does her dispute with the bishop (so very Anglican - dignified and quiet) help or hurt?
17 12 05 Mark R.
This riding was close last time with all 3 parties being within a narrow vote range. I agree with the last poster that incumbency has a factor, but it will depend upon the resources that the parties put into this riding as the election day nears. Campaigning in winter in these northern ridings is very difficult and the ground war will play a pivotal role. The NDP is better at this than either the Libs or Cons. I predict an NDP gain.
10 12 05 A.S.
Nobody's yet mentioned Kashechewan? *That* may (or may not) have the potential of upsetting whatever aboriginally-leveraged Liberal-friendly apple cart Elections Canada created when it bowed to raw geography over population figures and cut the Rainy River out of Kenora. As w/so much of Northern Ontario, the real (and underreported, probably due to geography) story of 2004 was the rise of the NDP, polevaulting over CPC hopes of a betwixt-Toews-and-Gallant breakthrough--and keep in mind that provincially speaking, Howard Hampton owns those Northern reserve polls where the Grits have hitherto had the federal advantage. Since they weren't *that* far behind even with the First Nations vote accounted for, the Tories still have a chance--albeit more in the event of a majority whose prospect doesn't scare Central Canadians. (Or that fantasy of the firearms-ban issue taking *real* electoral centre-stage around these parts.) Otherwise, if it were all simply about "sending the Grits a message", the NDP now has the upper hand--all the more so if we assume that a lot of '04's Tory votes were a vestige of Reform/Alliance populism. That is, if they knew the NDP would do as well as they did, such voters would have voted thusly rather than a la 2000. But, would they? Roger Valley's now (theoretically, at least) got incumbent's advantage. Incidentally, Grassy Narrows activist/Green candidate Carl Chaboyer won his home poll--if I'm not mistaken, the only Green poll in all of Ontario in 2004...
04 11 05 Kenora Resident
Incumbancy has its advantages I think that works to Roger Valley's favour. He was able to get himself elected chairman of the Northern Ontario caucus and more importantly has been vocal on the forestry issue, something that's getting a lot of play in the riding. The NDP may close the gap, but I say Valley pulls out another win.
19 09 05 Jeremy
While last time I predicted the Tories to capture this riding I have a hard time doing so this time. This riding if nothing else, is swayed by national trends the same way other ridings are and at the moment the Liberals are heading upwards into majority territory. If this trend continues it would be difficult for the Conservatives (or the NDP for that matter) to pull it off. However I see it as more likely for the NDP to get it than the Tories but this would only happen if there was a strong national campaign by the NDP. As for gay marriage, gun control was far more of an issue in this riding than gay marriage is today and it has yet to succeed, in four elections, in ousting the Liberals in this riding.
17 07 05 Brandon
Prediction changed. While scrolling through the list of 17 Ontario ridings the Tories won in the advanced polls, I was shocked to learn Kenora was one of them! Same-sex marriage just may be the issue that puts them over the top, by only a few votes (probably double-digits). Hard to say.
18 05 05 Lib Supporter
Craig's comment that the First Nations will be voting NDP, in my opinion, is hogwash. First Nations typically have a low voter turnout as it stands and in the last many elections that has become apparent. However, if you look at statistics and facts, it would be in the best interest for them to vote Liberal, as compared to the other two parties, the Liberals have the best package for the First Nations.
11 05 05 Arzie Chant
To be clear, no riding that is traditionally considered "Northern" is likely to go Conservative. Typically anything north of the French River is well out of Conservative hands on the Federal scene. They would be wise to give up here and go back to the 905 where they have a chance.
In the case of Kenora, one need only look at past performance. Of the three major parties, the Conservatives placed dead last last time around. In fact, the last time Kenora elected anything close to a tory was in 1921 when Dougald Kennedy was elected in the former riding of Port Arthur and Kenora. Mr. Douglad was not a Conservative though, he was a Progressive. To that end, please note that the current Conservative Party has dropped the word "Progressive" from their name, probably about the most honest thing they've done in recent history.
This leaves the Liberals and the NDP in Kenora. The NDP might get it, but for now, I've left it with the Liberals. Their member won last time and has been a solid MP. What's more, his stances on contentious issues (ie: equal marriage) will not differ from his NDP counter-part. Finally, the old stereotype that rural and remote are somehow synonamous with social conservatism is misleading (and frankly, offensive). With that in mind, it is unlikely the NDP will steal the seat and even less likely that the tory will walk up the middle.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
Any of the three parties could take this one, although I give the liberals the advantage followed by the NDP and then the Tories. Federally this hasn't gone conservative since 1926, but issues like the gun registry and same-sex marriage while likely help the Tories here despite the fact this area is very left wing economically. I would be surprised if any of the three parties get less than 25% or over 40%.
08 05 05 Craig
This will be an interesting race, however in the end I think a series of events will put this one in the Conservative column. The NDP-Liberal deal will not go well here, especially considering the NDP is more of a populist than an activist type here. In addition, the Liberals are floundering in many areas, and will lose votes. Many of them are social conservatives that will go to the CPC on issues like gay marriage, which Roger Valley voted in favour of. Plus the normal gun registry issues helped keep it close. The First Nations will give the NDP lots of votes but it won't be enough. This will be a close one, but in the end by a few hundred votes it will be a huge seat for the CPC in northwestern Ontario. Predicted results: CPC 35%, NDP 32%, LIB 28%, GRN 5%
06 05 05 Brandon
The Liberals won 1,000 votes over the NDP who won 1,000 votes over the Tories. With Liberals losing support in all directions, this riding could very well be in a 3-way race. The provincial PC's used to win here a lot. Now Ontario NDP Leader Howard Hampton has a lock on Kenora. Since the NDP came in a close second last time, have the best shot at defeating the Liberal incumbent.



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