||20 01 06
|THe Spectator has run the same story on six consecutive dates, yet has failed to disclose anything illegal or even unethical on Valeri's part. The Spectator's prolonged witch hunt is in fact generating some sympathy support for Valeri. HESC is Death Valley for any Tory as their "star" candidate Fred Eisenberger discovered. Rukavina has even failed to gain signifaicant support from the (traditionally Liberal) Croation community.So no vote splitting there. Last time around, with a strong energetic Italo Canadian candidate the NDP put a scare into Valeri with some slippage among trditionally Liberal voters. Stelco seemed on the brink of bankrupcy and McGuinty had just levied the "Liberal" health tax. But such is not the case this time. Valeri in a landslide. He has earned it.|
||18 01 06
||Chicken Wing Charlie|
|Even though NDPers have been flooding this site with predictions of a victory, here's why Valeri wins again. The NDP finish first in the Hamilton section of the riding, with the Liberals second and the Tories not even on the map. The Liberals finish first in Stoney Creek with the Tories a distant second and the NDP not on the map. That's the formula that Valeri saw when he had a direct hand in the Liberals drawing up new riding boundaries. The new riding was such a sure thing, Valeri was willing to go to war with Sheila Copps because he knew if he beat Sheila, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek would keep him in office no matter what happened. The Conservatives knew they didn't have a chance in this riding after taking a shot with a real candidate last time and coming in an terrible third. This time they're running a warm body and writing off Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. A better Conservative may have made it tougher for Valeri but that didn't happen. The case can be made that in running retread Wayne, the NDP don't have as good a candidate this time either. This riding and the Mountain are going to stay red and the NDP will have to settle for the status quo of holding Hamilton Centre. Valeri's abilities to re-draw riding boundaries to his advantage have saved him again.|
||17 01 06
||It's a Lego World|
|Valeri has been taking a beating in the Hamilton media for a week now. No doubt this will affect his vote but that's not the story here. I'm surprised the Conservatives came up with such a nobody candidate like Frank Ruckavina to run here. Fred Eisenberg who was their candidate last time might have been a serious threat but Ruckavina has been the invisible candidate. Wayne Marsden has almost been as invisible, even in the NDP end of the riding in Hamilton East. This area has traditionally been a wash in orange and green NDP lawn signs but this time there's almost nothing. When the results come in on election night, the NDP will win most of the polls in the Hamilton East part of the riding but the vote totals will be so low it won't be enough to catch the number of votes Valeri gets from hard core Liberals in Stoney Creek.|
||16 01 06
|I have never read such a silly argument that Frog Mouth makes about the NDP putting its workers on the Mountain. I would suggest that since Christopherson is a lock that 'some' workers from his campaign have likely been redeployed into Ham Mtn and HESC. The Libs are going down in this country and clearly in this city. Heck Valeri (and Kelly on thew Mtn) may finish 3rd!|
||14 01 06
|Mr Valeri's real estate deal on the banner headline of yesterday's Hamilton Spectator, coupled with his foreknowledge of the Income Trust decision make it hard for him to shake the image of "yet another corrupt, scandal-plagued Liberal". Despite a lack of current public evidence of any legal wrongdoing on his part, the unethical nature of the deal, along with the appearance of scandal, are enough to vilify Valeri in the public eye. Throw in a measure of public resentment for Sheila Copps' treatment and Jack Layton's recent visit to Hamilton and everything seems to be working out in the NDP's favour. East Hamilton's vote alone should carry Marston into power with the red Tories of Stoney Creek going with the national trend and trending toward the Conservatives. This could still turn it into a three-way-race late in the game, although Conservative support is traditionally weak in the riding. Barring any major new developments this should go NDP.|
||13 01 06
|This is a case of not enough campaign workers to go around. The NDP are putting most of their campaign team on Hamilton Mountain where they feel that Chris Charlton has a very good shot at winning a vacant seat. That leaves the NDP without enough of a team for Marston. Tony Valeri on the other side has through the years developed a solid and experienced team.|
You can see the difference on the street in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. Valeri has the workers and Marston doesn't. I'll say Valeri wins by 1000 votes.
||13 01 06
|I'm not an NDP supporter, however, let us all concede the obvious. With Tony Valeri winning this riding by only 1000 votes in 2004 and now under suspicsion for benefiting financially due to inside Liberal connections regarding a real estate sale he recently made, not to mention a general desire for change among the voting public, I put this riding firmly into the hands of the New Democrats.|
||14 01 06
|The front page headline in todays Spectator(Jan.14) was Martin defends Valeri. A land sale has raised questions. In the ridng profile there are comments on the closesness of the race between the Libs and NDP here. Then there is the CBC trying to get answers from Valeri on the Income Trust story. Tony Valeri is going down and this will be a NDP gain.|
||11 01 06
|The NDP's choice of Hamilton as the location to launch their platform today (1/11/06) was not by accident. I hear that the NDP is experiencing a groundswell of support in the city, and I would predict that they take both Hamilton East and Hamilton Mountain, along with an easy hold for Christopherson in Hamilton Center.|
||11 01 06
|This is going to be a very interesting riding to watch. Last election Valeri did manage to hold off a strong challenge from the NDP. Although one could argue that the Liberals will hold off the NDP again, there are numerous factors that point to the NDP taking this riding.|
1. The Liberal brand is tarnished in HESC. There seems to be a significant segment of the population that is "not voting liberal." The exodus of Sheila Copps supporters from the Liberal party seems to be complete. Finally, left leaning liberals, the "Trudeau Liberals" have all left the Liberals. Under these circumstances, traditional liberal supporters will not be as motivated to vote as their NDP or conservative counterparts. It all leads to the Liberals having a smaller number of supporters that are unmotivated to get out on EDay.
2. If there is an increased support for the Conservatives, this will only take away from the Liberals, especially in Stoney Creek. This will significantly benefit the NDP.
Overall, I can't see the Liberals overcoming these obstacles in this riding. The NDP will take this riding thanks to strong conservative presence in SC taking away from the Liberals.
||10 01 06
|Oops! Mr. Valeri seems to have been involved in a questionable real estate deal (see bourque.org). With the polls shifting, I think the NDP are in a position to win this seat if there are no major changes in the last 2 weeks of the campaign.|
||08 01 06
|Tony Valeri has been identified as one of the Cabinet Ministers who was informed of the Income Trust announcement. While there is no allegation of wrongdoing on his part it is an issue being raised at the door and likely to hurt him in this close race|
||06 01 06
|The NDP had the edge last time but this time Valeri has solidified his place. The Steel companies aren't on the brink of collapse and the NDP has really done anything that will increase its votability in Stoney Creek. Look for Marston to lose by a few thousand votes in my opinion.|
||03 01 06
|The 2004 result in HE-SC was as bizarrely melodramatic as the Copps-vs-Valeri battle-cum-psychodrama that led up to it. While Stoney Creek pulled through for a Valeri victory in the end, the NDP not only scored a federally-unprecedented breakthrough in the heart of Copps country, it gave Valeri a Horwath-scale nearly 3-to-1 pummeling, to the point where Valeri was even struggling with the Tories for a poor third place! Now that he's more rooted in cabinet and facing what're effectively sloppy-seconds candidates from both camps (though Wayne Marston may share some of Chris Charlton's perennial-with-a-chance quality), *perhaps* he's breathing easier--depends, though, on the bigger federal picture. Maybe an even tighter 3-way than last time?|
||30 12 05
|Valeri had some real competition last time with both very strong NDP and Tory candidates running against him. This time both the Tories and NDP couldn't manage to come up with any where near as strong local candidates.|
I believe nobody from the left or right wanted to run against Valeri this time because they know he's going to win. I see Valeri winning by at least 2500 this time. Maybe more.
||28 12 05
|Copps' recent rant looks like sour grapes more than anything else. How else can you explain her "endorsing" the NDP in HESC but also "advising" the Conservative candidate in the riding. People will see through it.|
Copps' intervention is a double-edged sword: most of this riding was NEVER a part of her old riding. The Stoney Creek vote held firm in 2004 and some of the very "nationalistic" Stoney Creek areas (old Tory areas since confederation) actually voted for Valeri in numbers NEVER seen before (eg not in 1993, 1997 or 2000).
I suspect Copps' intervention will actually hurt Valeri's opponents in Stoney Creek and will not be able to push down his vote in Hamilton East (which was already terrible to begin with).
Copps is only one piece of the puzzle. Valeri was at best an unknown last time in HE (or was hated by Copps and associates). Stelco, Dalton's health tax, gomery, etc ALL contributed to the narrow victory.
Now Valeri has brought over $100 million to Hamilton plus the CANMET lab and increased investment at MAC plus the $30 million to Stelco (which ended up saving the Stelco deal). So those who didn't know him now can see what he did for Hamilton.
As long as Dalton McGuinty doesn't impose another health tax and the Liberal campaign doesn't absolutely tank, I think Valeri will be okay.
||24 12 05
|I'm not sure why there is such a debate about Tony De Paulo's name, but to add my two cents, I am Italian and as far as I know his name is Italian. Anyway, it seems De Paulo is not running for the NDP this time which surprises me since he almost won last year. I also don't think there is as much anger towards the Liberals here over the Sheila Copps situation as there was last year when people really hated Valeri for that. I suspect the NDP's closest chance to taking the riding was last year, but the Liberals shouldn't get complacent.|
||23 12 05
|I am going to go a little bit out on a limb here and predict an NDP pickup for two reasions. |
1) The conservative is so far back that the liberal scare tactics (vote for us to stop Harper) won't be as effective as last time (1000 difference) and
2) Copps has apparently all but flat-out endorsed the NDP campaign. This will carry some weight in the riding
||22 12 05
|For those who have suggested the "Copps effect" has dissipated in this riding, I submit to you the following report from the Toronto Star 12/22/05: |
"Copps working against political nemesis Valeri"
Sheila Copps is working against the Liberal party and political nemesis Tony Valeri in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
The former Liberal deputy prime minister, who lost a bitter nomination battle to Valeri last year, is advising the campaign of Tory candidate Frank Rukavina.
Copps is also encouraging supporters to back NDP candidate Wayne Marston.
Valeri, government House leader, won the riding by only 927 votes in 2004 over NDP candidate Tony DePaulo.
||22 12 05
|I heard Sheila Copps is helping both the NDP and Tory candidates in order to defeat Tony Valeri (looks like sour grapes over her loss in the nomination in 2004) so it will be interesting what affect this has. One shouldn't underestimate her popularity in the Hamilton portion of the riding so we'll have to see what affect this has. Still over half the riding population lives in Stoney Creek, which should stay Liberal at least in that portion, while the Tories don't stand a hope at winning this riding.|
||21 12 05
|For all those Liberals who said the Sheila Copps factor did not exist in this riding anymore can think again...see this from today on CBC and apparently coming soon in The Spectator|
Copps working to defeat Liberal rival
Last Updated Wed, 21 Dec 2005 21:25:13 EST
Former deputy prime minister Sheila Copps is helping out the Tory and NDP candidates in the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek riding in a bid to unseat her former Liberal colleague and political rival Tony Valeri.
Copps told the Hamilton Spectator that she is advising the campaign of Conservative Frank Rukavina and encouraging supporters to back the NDP's Wayne Marston in the Jan. 23 federal election.
Copps did not explicitly endorse Marston, but said she is helping out because she believes it's important for the political process.
||21 12 05
|Things are interesting in this riding, Tony Valari won by a slim margin over the NDP last time, Shiela Copps is raising heck in this riding by working for the NDP candidate. Sheila still pulls a lot of weight in Hamilton and you can except enough people to blow past the 927 vote gap. Bottomline is Shiela induced NDP Pickup.|
||20 12 05
|So far the NDP is winning the sign war hands down, which bodes well for them. Either the Liberals are not starting their campaign yet or they are finding a poor response. Given the closeness of the election last time, that bodes poorly for Tony Valeri and well for Wayne Marston.|
||18 12 05
|As much as I want the NDP to win, nominating Marston as the candidate is basically an admission by the party that they are going to lose the riding. He's a placeholder who has lost every time he's ran.|
||06 12 05
|Valeri by a mile, he has proved his grit and earned the respect of some of Sheila's supporters, a few NDP supporters and some of Eisenburger's last time. His high profile and support of Hamilton has shown his skill and caring. The NDP are running old tired labour retread and party hack in this riding and Ham Mtn respectively. Wayne has ticked off a few in the labour movement including myself and my union with his stand on many issues.|
||03 12 05
|Stelco just came out of backruptcy protection with a deal that the feds helped make happen. Valeri played a big role and I think that voters are going to see that. He is a strong voice for Hamilton in Ottawa and will be returned.|
||03 12 05
|Tony DePaulo IS ITALIAN/IRISH. Also most people realize that when Marston ran in previous elections; he did so out of his loyalty to the party, not because he knew he would win, so it is not fair to say he is a loser. Most people with common sense would dispute your belief. I doubt that Valeri is taking Marston lightly because of past results. It will undoubtly be close, but i think people have had it with Martin and know that Marston is their only chance to defeat Valeri.|
||01 12 05
||The Invisible Man|
|I was sure Tony would lose last time around, but I proved incorrect. Although I like to stir the pot a little bit, it seems quite apparent to me that Tony Valeri will hang on again. He's proven to be a pretty shrewd pol as House Leader and did a much better job than I (and most people) expected. Also, he's a pretty good constituency man and, despite the fact that he looks like Count Dracula, he's actually a good guy. Last time I figured the Tories would do fairly well due to the presence of the affluent areas of Stoney Creek -- I was wrong there, so it probably won't happen this time around, unless post-Gomery residual anger manifests itself on a much greater basis than I think it will. Plus they had a "name" (note brackets) in Fred Eisenberger last time and now they have nobody. Marston too is a good guy, but I would have to concur will the assessment that his name recognition is not high -- most people know he's a union guy and, a union guy running for the NDP, especially in this riding, would surprise no one. Let's also not forget the fact that the NDP central office was holding out for Sam Merulla, who's only been a New Democrat for about 20 minutes, to run even though the nomination race was ending about three days before Merulla finally announced. Although the NDP touts this as a "winnable riding," why were they so desperate for Merulla? Sheila Copps is gone and anger over that has died down, and many have returned to their Liberal roots. I think Valeri, Chris Phillips, and the Liberal machine will pull it off quite easily this time around.|
||29 11 05
|Unless there is a dramatic backlash against the Liberals over Gomery (which is certainly not out of the question), this one is Valeri's to lose.|
I fear the NDP had their chance last time around. Wayne Marston is not as strong as Tony DePaulo. And, the Sheila Copps factor - and let's not kid ourselves, it was huge in '04 - is probably just not there.
||27 11 05
|Tony DePaulo, despite his last name, is actually Portuguese, not Italian. That aside, Merulla was the NDP's best shot at this riding. Marston is seen as a perennial election loser and although he will have strong union support, he has little crossover appeal.|
Marston has never won an election, Valeri has never lost one. Who would you put your money on?
||24 11 05
|Don't be surprised by the appeal that Hamilton District Labour Council president and public school trustee Wayne Marston has in the riding. A previous post said the NDP needed an ethnic candidate to win, but last election where the NDP barely lost, most ethnic (read Italian) polls still over whelming voted for Valeri - they did not change their votes because DePaulo was an Italian. The Sheila Copps supporters overwhelmingly supported DePaulo and will probably support Marston even stronger because of Sheila's respect for and work with Wayne over the years. I hear through friends at work that many of the Sheila people have already signed on to Marston's campaign. Clearly if the Hamilton East portion of the riding had a better voter turnout last election, DePaulo would be the MP...so it is clear that the NDP will work to increase voter turnout in their strong part of the riding. The wildcard is the Eisenberger voters. Many supported Fred because they knew him as their councillor and was not seen to be a far right Tory. Now with a relatively nobody running for the Tories, can they hold the 22% or so vote they got, or will some of that support be turned to the NDP 'strategically' to defeat Valeri - now that is the BIG question. Finally, I am not sure how serious the NDP or Sam Merulla were about him running. He brings nothing extra to the table really. The ward he represents already is strong strong NDP and italians in Stoney Creek did not vote for DePaulo, why would they vote for Merulla? I think he was setting himself up for a run provincially in 2007 against a weak liberal Jennifer Mossop.|
||08 11 05
|Wayne Marston has just been nominated the NDP candidate. Sam Merulla was approached by the party brass to run about three weeks ago when Wayne and Willomena McGrimmond were already candidates for the nomination. Why would the party brass approach Merulla so late in the game? Is it because they were concerned that Wayne couldn't win?|
Marston's political powerbase is in Hamilton-East, where he is a public school trustee in a riding in which half the school children don't attend public schools. In other words, he has a limited name recognition outside the school system and his union affiliations.
What the NDP needed was an ethnic candidate from Stoney Creek to challenge Valeri's solid base. Valeri can't go down any further from 2004 in the Hamilton East section of the riding but he will go up in Stoney Creek given that the NDP has decided to run a candidate with little appeal in Stoney Creek.
||15 10 05
|The Hamilton Spectator reported on Oct 14/05 that Sam Merulla, a long-time city councillor and former aide to Dominca Agostino who left the Liberals after the provincial Liberal party's decision to impose Ralph Agostino as candidate in the Hamilton East by-election, is considering seeking the NDP nomination on November 7. I thought Wayne Marston, a public school trustee and Labour Council President would be a strong candidate for the NDP -- Merulla would be even stronger. Such a three-person race for the NDP nomination (including anti-Red Hill expressway activist Wilamina McGrimmond) will strengthen their local campaign, presuming they won't savage each other during the nomination race. After winning by less than 1000 votes last time, Valeri's days are numbered.|
||26 09 05
||Bear and Ape|
|Justin makes some great points in favour of a Valeri victory here. This riding does have a split personality, with Hamilton East being poor and run down compaired to the more affluent Stoney Creek. Stoney Creek can and does look more like the west-end suburbs of Dundas and Ancaster (on paper) than the part of Hamilton it's lumped in with. One could argue that the voting trend would be more like Ancaster-Dundas-etc-etc than it would, say, Hamilton Center. So it would stand to reason that Valeri and the Liberals would take Hamilton east- Stoney Creek. However the recent news about Stelco's woes is not good news for the workers and the people of Hamilton as a whole. If the restructuring results in job loss, people could (and likely would) blame the government in power. The result would be an boost for the NDP. Even the more affluent Stoney Creek portion would feel the negative effects and may sway votes. Bottom line is there is trouble in Steeltown and we can't really tell which way the winds are blowing just yet.|
||17 09 05
|It is true the Sheila Copps debacle hurt Tony Valeri, but since then Jack Layton has become more popular due to this decision to cooperate with the government rather than play political games like the Tories and Bloc have, many people last time around who voted liberal since they thought the NDP was a wasted vote and didn't want a Conservative government will now vote NDP, since the NDP can have an effect on the government even if they don't win the election. Tony Valeri may still win, but the improved popularity of the NDP will counter any loss due to the Sheila Copps issue being done with.|
||08 08 05
|Yes I understand that I am going against the grain here. However what everyone overlooked in 2004 (and still are in my view) is that the Hamilton East portion of this riding is slightly less than half the current riding.|
In 2004 Valeri picked up 50% of the vote in his former constituency. He only dropped marginally in his home area.
And while the Hamilton East portion is Valeri's weakness, one could argue that he can't go further down in votes in that area.
The longer Valeri is in power, the less potent the "Sheila factor". Last year Stelco was a hot issue - now it is less so. But in the interim even the Steelworkers have congratulated Valeri for his advocacy for the steelworkers.
In addition, the Hamilton East portion is losing population while Stoney Creek continues to grow with new subdivisions, primarily in Winona and Greenhill. It is this suburban growth which is paving over the agricultural areas of the riding which will contribute to a Liberal victory.
In addition, the conservatives are not running a candidate with a strong local profile, as they did in 2004.
None of these factors are huge...but a few hundred votes here and a few hundred votes there will add to the cushion of victory.
The time to win this was last year for the NDP...the Sheila factor, the Dalton factor, the Stelco factor, etc. Sheila Copps was in every TV for months talking about being robbed.
If Valeri could win only months after beating Copps in a bitter nomination, he should be able to pull it together in 2005 or 2006.
||03 06 05
|About the entire Hamilton area going NDP, I really really don't think Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale will. The NDP has a great shot here with the right candidate because Valeri is weak due to the party games going on in Ottawa. If the NDP can't find someone good, Valeri will hold on.|
||01 06 05
|Many people who predicted an NDP victory last time and this time do not fully comprehend the complexity of this riding. This is NOT the same riding that Andrea Horwath swept in a byelection. Only 49% of HESC is part of the provincial Hamilton East riding.|
There is an urban/suburban mix in this riding (with a few working farms in the east end of the riding). Factor in more development in the Greenhill area and Winona (which is Liberal friendly - not NDP) and you have the recipe for a Liberal victory. In addition, factor in the fact that Hamilton East is dying out: each year the population in that area declines - if you are an NDP supporter, this is something you don't want as every vote in Hamilton East is sacred.
DePaulo was able to cash in on anger: anger at Stelco, anger at Dalton and anger (in Hamilton East) over Sheila. Well what has happened since? Stelco is in better shape (and the Steelworkers have been publicly congratulating Valeri for his efforts to protect their pensions), Dalton McGuinty has managed to not stir the pot, Sheila has largely faded from the scene and DePaulo has decided not to seek the nomination (due to rumoured health problems). The longer Valeri is in parliament, the easier it is for Sheila Copps to fade in people's memory.
DePaulo was also able to take a few ethnic votes from the Liberals. He made marginal gains in the Italian and East Indian communities but was unable to make any real gains in the Croatian community. This time, an unknown NDP candidate will have to start from scratch as I suspect that the those soft NDP votes will largely revert back to the Liberals.
2004 was the perfect storm for the NDP and they didn't succeed. Imagine, only 3 months after Sheila's stunning defeat, the voters in HESC voted Tony back in. I suspect that the old Stoney Creek riding will continue to endorse Valeri to the tune of 50% support. In Hamilton East, his numbers will also rise.
Furthermore, Frank Rukavina (I know him personally) is not a heavyweight. He does not have the local presence of Eisenberger. He will not be able to hold on to the votes from last time and much of that will migrate to Valeri. And given the close vote last time, a number of conservatives who know and respect Tony will likely vote for him to keep out the NDP.
I am not suggesting that this election is sown up for Valeri. It will be a good fight. The factors I listed above will shift a few hundred votes here and a few hundred there. If this trend continues, look for a Valeri victory in the neighbourhood of 2,500 votes.
||01 06 05
|I'm not denying this will again be a close race, but I think thinks are looking up for Tony. Last time was something of a perfect storm in favour of the NDP... not only did you have the ghost of Sheila lingering over everything, but you had a strong moderate Conservative candidate, Hamilton's Martinite Liberals scrambling to defend both Keyes and Valeri simultaneously, fury at McGuinty, a recent NDP provincial byelection victory, Stelco in the tank and a steelworker NDP candidate specifically fighting the campaign on that issue. Valeri now faces weaker opposition candidates on both the left and right, Belinda-less Tories less sellable in Stoney Creek, the Stelco issue played out of the headlines, and a much-improved national media profile from moving from Transport to House Leader. I imagine the Liberal national headquarters will take the knee in Hamilton Centre and throw everything they've got at reinforcing Tony, as will the Hamilton establishment (Di Ianni et al) strategically move to defend their one remaining boy from the socialist hordes. Not a bad set of circumstances for Count Chocula.|
||17 05 05
|Valeri is the only liberal to get dirty due to the tory tactics of closing the commons. With the liberals down in ontario and the NDP up (in every poll) this seat is at minimum vulernable. I forsee the entire hamilton area going NDP, including this seat. Valeri will not be the only high profile liberal to lose his seat to an NDPer this time around.|
||17 05 05
|The Liberals are growing increasingly unpopular in Urban Ontario, most to do with the sponsorship scandal but further because of the McGuinty Liberals. As punishment in a bi-election a NDP candidate won an impressive victory in the legislature. My feeling is that similar retribution will be dispensed on Tony Valeri, especially since he is a symbol of party games in the House.|
||15 05 05
|Sheila Copps has indicated in her latest salvo that the bitterness she has with Martin has not moderated...In this riding, I take it that Hamilton-based polls will be coalescing hard for the NDP. Polls will come and go and wax and wane, but my bet is on an NDP win.|
||13 05 05
|Anger over the Sheila Copps issue is dying down; Tony DePaulo isn’t running again; Valeri is more high profile then the last election. |
In 2004 the local NDP outdid their usual performance (in comparison to the provincial average) by over 15%, I can’t see this happening to the same extent again. The CPC will get more votes here, due to the shift in the provincial polls, but that will be muted somewhat as the local candidate is going from Fred Eisenberger to Frank Rukivina (a more well known candidate to a lesser one).
I’m going to call it Liberal hold with a wider lead over the NDP, and a slightly smaller lead then last time over the CPC.
||12 05 05
|With NDP support up and Liberal support down and given the closeness of last year's result, I think this riding will go NDP this time around. There has been an increase in working class support for the "labor party" in Hamilton in recent years.|
Prediction: 40% NDP, 33% LIB, 25% CON
||11 05 05
|Tony Valeri had better have a job ready for him, since he won't be back. He has been a terrible House Leader for this minority government and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek will know that. The Conservatives will gain at Liberal expense, leaving the NDP with enough to take the seat. Don't expect any Liberals to keep their seats in Hamilton-Niagara. Predicted results: NDP 37%, LIB 30%, CPC 28%, GRN 4%, others 1%.|
||11 05 05
|With Stelco announcing record earnings over the past quarter, its eminent demise will no longer be a hot button issue as in the last election. This will help the Libs. Valeri's profile will also help him as will the absense of the "Dalton" factor this time around. I hear the Ndp is running Wayne Marston.Not as strong a candidate as DePulo was. Brad Clark did Tony a big favour in decling to run. Clark would have split the vote allowing the NDP to possibly come up the middle. The "Sheila" factor will be lessened especially if she runs as a lib in Hamilton Centre. IN short all the planets are alligning for Valeri, even as the liberals take a beating throughout the rest of Canada. A Valeri hold.|
||10 05 05
|Interesting race here - Still too close to call. Valeri is getting a lot of publicity as the Liberal Whip - but might be negative as he is blamed for trying to control democracy by playing legislative tricks to hold onto power. Media reports show that there is still a very sour taste amongst the copps support. Valeri on the other hand is a good local MP (even thought he doesn't live in the riding) This will be an interesting one to watch on election night (like it was in 2004)! Could be tightest race in Ontario|
||06 05 05
|My view is this will be quite tight...just like 2004, but with the NDP having an edge. Valeri being a house leader should be virtually inconsequential to voters and how well he does that job is a good question. A strong Conservative campaign should help the NDP.|
||05 05 05
|The Sheila Copps debacle may be over and Tony Valeri has been a good house leader, but this is Hamilton where the unions are very strong and with the NDP up and liberals down, an NDP win is quite possible. The NDP will likely put a lot of resources into ridings since they actually have a decent shot at winning such as this one. Last time around, they were so far behind everywhere in Ontario, that they had no idea which ridings to target, whereas that is not the case this time around.|
||03 05 05
|Valeri will win a lot easier then last time, now that the Sheila Copps debacle has worn off, Tony has been a great House Leader and he'll easily get re-elected.|