Mise à jour:
5:57 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
6:18 PM 20/01/2006
Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Vaudreuil-Soulanges
2006 - élection générale (Canada)



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Conservative/conservateur
Stéphane Bourgon
Bloc Québécois
Meili Faille
Libearl/libéral
Marc Garneau
NDP/NPD
Bert Markgraf
Green/Vert
Pierre Pariseau-Legault

Député:
Meili Faille

2004 Résultats:
Meili Faille
24675
Nick Discepola
21613
Robert Ramage
4558
Bert Markgraf
2175
Julie C. Baribeau
2103
Charles Soucy
585

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

17 01 06 CD
I predicted earlier that a high-profile candidate and a concentration of federalist votes would swing this Liberal. However, the campaign has nullified these factors. Garneau's well-publicized, ill-advised remarks hurt; also, high profiles mean less if you are not expected to get into cabinet. As for vote-splitting, an unexpectedly good P.C. result in 1997 split the rural vote in this riding and helped re-elect the Liberal. However, this time the Conservatives have bled from both sides, and the Liberals are so low in the polls that they can't expect to steal any seats from the Bloc, no matter how the other parties split the vote. So I'm switching my prediction to BQ.
15 01 06 JFB
Marc Garneau ou pas, le vote libéral s'effondre au Québec, le PLC étant maintenant 3e dans les intentions de vote des Québécois, derrière les Conservateurs. Garneau ne s'est vraiment pas aidé avec ses déclarations concernant les souverainistes, renforçant l'appui au Bloc. Si on y ajoute une possible division du vote fédéraliste entre Libéraux et Conservateurs, le 23 janvier prochain, Vaudreuil-Soulanges demeurera dans le camp bloquiste.
10 01 05 El Suavé
Alright, Alright. I understand the tendency for the Libs to bleed in this election, but this is Marc Garneau we are talking about here -a freakin astronaut! He's a star candidate for the grits and he is a safer liberal than many of the others out there in Québec. Don't hold your breath Bloquists, Garneau ain't out of this race yet!
10 01 05 VD
With all of Marc Garneau's questionables statements lately, and the significant margin Faille won with last time, I don't see any reason for the Bloc to lose Vaudreuil, espcially with the Liberals plumetting in every survey.
10 01 05 Liberty Canada
The only other time a separatist was elected in this riding was in 1976, when the Union Nationale took enough votes from the Quebec Liberals allowing Louise Cuerrier to sneak in for the PQ. Despite the fact that she was Speaker of the national Assembly, and the PQ was re-elected in '81, her flame was quickly extinguished in that election.
10 01 06 El Suavé
Alright, Alright. I understand the tendency for the Libs to bleed in this election, but this is Marc Garneau we are talking about here -a freakin astronaut! He's a star candidate for the grits and he is a safer liberal than many of the others out there in Québec. Don't hold your breath Bloquists, Garneau ain't out of this race yet!
05 01 06 CL
Les récentes déclarations de Garneau lui seront fatales (son déménagement advenant la souveraineté du Québec et la comparaison de la souveraineté avec la guerre en Irak (?), entre autres). Même Paul Martin le désavoue. Le comté demeurera au Bloc.
04 01 06 Edith
Je vais voter pour Meili Faille dans Vaudreuil-Soulanges. Marc Garneau vient de nous prouver qu'il n'est pas digne de nous représenter à Ottawa. Il y a des limites sur les comparaisons possibles. Je ne sais vraiment pas le lien qu'il y a entre "l'invasion en Iraq" et le "projet souverainiste". Il y va en plus avec un mépris pour les villages francophones de son comté disant qu'ils ne comprennent rien de la vrai politique. Les résultats de la dernière fois ne sont pas si encourageants pour les libéraux...Madame Faille a presque 6% de majorité et 3062 voix de plus que le libéral. On ne voit plus M. Discepola...serait-il en train de se distancer, lui aussi, de M. Garneau. Le nouveau candidat conservateur s'appelle Stéphane Bourgon et il travaille très fort sur le terrain.
30 12 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
Courte victoire. Marc- André, le PLC n'est pas l'ADQ. Le PLC a énormément de moyens, est un parti quia une nase d'au moins 30% des gens. Ce comté est très fédéraliste: de 1921 à 2004 (à part à lÉpoque Mulroney) ila élu des députés Libéraux. Meilli Faille est un poteau qui s'est fait élire de justesse en juin 2004. Elle même en a été surpris. Marg Garneau est ministrable et les gens dans ce comté le savent. De plus ce comté au provincial est Libéral et n'a jamais été péquistes.
Short Victory for Garneau. Marc Garneau may be a paratroped here, but face with a singpost, he will win witha slight majority even if the bloc gets over 50% + 1 of the votes on January 23th.
22 12 05 Marc-André
C'est sur ici que c'est une candidature vedette qui se présente ici pour les libéraux. Mais, il ne faut pas mettre le bloc pour à terre longtemps. Je vous rappelerai toute les candidatures vedettes que l'ADQ avait présenté au dernier scrutin provincial au Québec.... et combien de ces vedettes sont à l'Assemblée nationale..... 0....... Je prédis dans ce comté une lutte serré qui pour le momement me permet pas de dégager un vainceur!
08 12 05 Victor A.
I do agree that Marc Garneau should be considered a front-runner for this one. The demographics are against the Bloc in the riding with close to 20 % of anglophones living mostly in its northern part. Furthermore, the population of the riding is growing quite quickly, many people from the West Island continue to buy houses throughout this riding so I have a hint that unlike in the rest of Quebec, the anglophone population of this riding will increase comparing to the 2001 Census. Anyways, just to get back to the story I think this is the only riding Liberals will win back from the Bloc in the 2006 election, although of course they do have a chance in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord and in Nunavik-Eeyou, although I do think they will lose both of those by close margins yet again. The fourth chance of a Liberal pick-up is a very surprising Beauharnois-Salaberry riding, just to the south of this one, where the BQ MP Boire was defeated in a nomination. Boire will probably run as independent and it will give Liberals a posibility ( an unlikely one but still ) to pick it up. Anyways, Garneau is a very respected man, he will get many of the Conservative, NDP, Green and even BQ votes from the last time. Meili Faille is certainly a competent MP but demographics are against as is federalist vote, this time around. This riding is around 60 % federalist.
07 12 05
Meili Faille n'aura été qu'un simple passage dans ce comté qui vote majoritairement pour les Libéraux. Avec un candidat d'une telle envergure , dont personne ne douteras de son intégrité et de son efficacité. En plus que plusieurs électeurs ne voudront pas laisser passez cette chance d'avoir Marc Garneau, comme représentant. Il va gagner avec une majoritée de 3000 voix. Si en 2004 les életeurs de ce comté on fait élire la candidate bloquiste ce n'était que pour montrée sa colere et aussi que certains fédéralistes prenait pour acquis la victoire des Libéraux donc son resté chez eux.
06 12 05 JFB
Ce sera très difficile pour Marc Garneau. Déjà, en 2004, on disait que Nick Discepola était indélogeable. Pourtant, il a perdu par 3000 voix. Garneau, néophyte en politique, fera face à une excellente députée sortante. Victoire BQ.
05 12 05 Tony Jones
If the Liberals nominate a legitmate "star" candidate with name recognition and a national appeal, in a traditional federalist area... don't they have a least a solid chance of picking up this seat? In my opinion this should be move into the TCTC column until things become clearer closer to Election Day.
03 12 05 CHR
The 2004 vote in this riding was anomalous. This is a federalist riding with a high anglo population, many of whom did not vote Liberal because they did not realize the Bloc had a realistic chance of winning (The Liberals won by 9000+ votes in 2000). With a high-profile Liberal candidate and a referendum-like, two-way race between Bloc and Liberals, expect this to be the only seat the Liberals steal from the Bloc in this election.
02 12 05 Richard
In most ridings the candidates make very little difference, but come on, this is Marc friggin Garneau!!!! He is going to win. This riding is typically a liberal seat and slipped away from them last election. This election, even if the liberal will have a net loss in Quebec, they can still count this one pick-up!
02 12 05 Initial
Theres no way this riding goes BQ. The Liberals are traditionnal winners here and they would not bring in a guy like Marc Garneau if the possibility of winning wasn't obvious.
01 12 05 SG
Ce comté va revenir aux Libéraux avec une majorité de 1000 voix minimum. L'astronaute Marc Garneau sera élu , car ce comté et de forte tendance fédéraliste , que les électeurs seront fier d'avoir monsieur Graneau comme député et aussi qu'il vont penser qu'il va faire un aussi bon travail comme député que lorsque qu'il dirigait l'Agence Spatial Canadienne. Finalement monsieur Graneau serait ministrable donc cela lui donne des bons points.
01 12 05 AV
While Faille's been a strong member and is probably the front-runner, this should at the very least be too close to call since Garneau's announcement.
01 12 05 Jean
'Cmon now.
1. Clearly this riding isn't hard-core seperatist since the Liberals held it before last election.
2. The themes of national unity and the benefits for Quebec and Canada by staying together will be strong in this campaign and likely will lur soft-support back to the Libs
3. The NDP and Cons are no where in the province
4. The Liberals have a star in this riding. Marc Garneau is a fresh face, well respected, cool and well spoken.
This one now seems like a fairly easy gain for the Liberals.
29 11 05 Liberty Canada
Suzy, I used to live in vaudreuil-Soulanges for 6 years, and even ran there as a candidate for a smaller party, so I can tell you that I know the riding quite well.
For one thing, no English speaking person will ever, ever, EVER vote for a separatist. We know all to well the true face of the separatist movement. No, we have not forgotten Louise Beaudoin and her ilk.
The Conservatives seem to have lost the steam they had picked up last election, and the Liberals will be running hard on the fact that the Bloc is a separatist party, and not a place to park a protest vote. If, as i expect, the federalist vote does coalesce around the Liberals, given that they have the organization that can get the vote out, this riding should easily return to the Liberals. Faille's victory last time was a freakshow, not unlike the time when that Pequiste Louise Cuerrier sneaked in back in '76. Meili Faille has had her 15 minutes of fame.
29 11 05 sam
Avec l'arrivée du candidat vedette Marc Garneau, les liberaux, ont des bonnes chanves de regagner ce comté. De plus ce comté a toujours ou presque eu un député liberal!...Victoire de Marc Garneau
01 12 05 James Trent
The nomination event of Meili Faille took place last night. With the support of the business associations from Vaudreuil-Soulanges that came in the morning, the support of elected representatives of the riding, people of all origins, agriculture producers, the arts and culture community, the community organizations, and most of all the support of thousands of people from Quebec and Canada, she definitively has good chance of defeating her liberal opponent.
27 11 05 Suzy
Marc Garneau will be defeated by the Bloc Quebecois for sure! Meili Faille is by far the most popular candidate in the riding and has earned the respect of the English community. A wind of change has struck this riding. The Conservatives and the other parties have yet not nominated any person. In the English community, it is suggested that, Marc Garneau, the space program manager should have thought to replace Scarpaleggia in Lac-Saint-Louis. Meili Faille is an asset to Ottawa, even as an opposition member. The local newspaper reported her influence to the legislative change on Citizenship and immigration. The Bar associations across Canada spoke highly of her contributions to promote a better immigration system. She received congratulatory messages from across Canada,...in Toronto and in B-C Gibson's landing! Yes, the home of the Beechcombers! Don't underestimate her credentials. I heard that the Space Agency has trouble with funding the program which may have encourage Garneau to rethink his career!
23 11 05 M. Lunn
No doubt the choice of Marc Garneau for the Liberal Party is a good one, but when one considers how angry Quebecers are at the Sponsorship Scandal and how big a lead the Bloc Quebecois has, I really don't think there is anything the Liberals can do to win any of the 54 Bloc Quebecois ridings. I certainly hope the Liberals gain seats in Quebec as I don't think Quebecers are well served by sending several opposition members to Ottawa who never have chance at forming government and whose main goal is separate. But unfortunately, the Liberal brand is badly tainted in Quebec and there is no viable federalist alternative.
23 11 05 MM
Nominating Garneau as a Liberal candidate is quite puzzling for the LPC if it wishes to win back Vaudreuil.
In spite of choosing a well-known local candidate, like Discepola. The liberals may take a riskier approach by enlisting a more popular household name; we still don't know Garneau's local connections with the riding. There's still chances he might end up like Bruno-Marie Béchard, the defeated Liberal candidate in Sherbrooke in 2004. Béchard, a locally well known academic and rector of the University of Sherbrooke was still defeated.
The riding is polarized between the northern area (more anglo and liberal) and the southern area (francophone and more prone to vote for the Bloc). The key to win this riding seems to reside more in mobilizing a desired electorate than enlisting a star candidate.
At last, Garneau's candidacy gives the Liberals something to talk about other than their government track record and the Sponsoship scandal. I'd bet a dollar that this candidacy is done not necessarily in the hope of winning the riding, but in the hope media might focus a little more on this race than others where news would be bad for the party as a whole in Quebec. And as for those other races I think about Papineau, Outremont, and Jeanne-Le-Ber(where Pettigrew, Lapierre and Frulla might be in for the fight of their life).
The Bloc candidate, Miss Faille, could defeat a three term well known Grit MP in '04, and that was in the context of a Bloc sweep all over the province. This same context occurs again this time. She can beat Garneau.
23 11 05 Liberty Canada
The rumours mentioned by Alexandre Plante appear to be true... And Jenn is correct that Nick Discepola earned himself the reputation as being Martin's chief lapdog, which probably contributed to his defeat.
If Marc Garneau does get the nomination, flip this back to the Liberals, and it may have a ripple effect into neighbouring Beauharnois Salaberry.
22 11 05 Alexandre Plante
Selon les rumeurs de La Presse, Marc Garneau serait candidat. L'ancien astronaute a d'excellentes chances de défaire Meilli Faille qui a gagné sans qu'elle ne s'y attende. Marc Garneau est un candidat avec un profil beaucoup plus haut que l'ancien député libéral, Nunzio Discepola. Une nouvelle recrue très impressionnante pour les libéraux !
20 11 05 Jenn
The business people have ignored Nick Discepola all evening at an oyster feast last week. They are very timid with being caught talking to Discepola. I must admit, he's out.
The English newspapers were talking of a possible Liberal star from outside the riding. The adscam is hurting more than we think in Quebec. The people wants the Liberals out. They misused public funds by the Liberals and the list of scandals is growing. Think at the gun control law, the UI, the adscam, still possible 770 millions$ at immigration (last week!)...do we really need more! I think the people from Vaudreuil-Soulanges understand that Discepola was a supporter of Martin. That's it.
18 09 05 Liberty Canada
As much as it pains me, I have to put this one back in the Liberal column. Adscam has died down, and All polling indicates the Liberals have regained much of the ground they lost over the past year. I would go so far as to say, that the Liberals will hold what they have curently, and retake some of what they lost on and around the Island of Montreal, to wit, Vaudreuil, Alfred Pellan and St Lambert.
16 05 05 Bear and Ape
A point of order to MM's posting. The portions of this riding which was on the island of Montreal was cut off prior to 2000, not just prior to the last election. So the Liberals were able to win this riding with ease in 2000 without the heavy Anglophone vote in the West Island. The Liberals have no hope at winning this riding this year with Gomery and everything, however look for this to be one of the first ridings to return to the Liberal fold in years to come.
11 05 05 Paul
Sorry to correct MM... but the riding boundaries did not change in 2004.
They did change in 1997 and until that year part of the West Island was effectively in the riding.
It is true that in 1993 Discepola would not have won if it weren't for the West Island part of the riding, but it wasn't there in 1997 and 2000 and he won anyway.
The riding is more federalist than it "should" be on account of French vs. English proportions... and it certainly is more federalist than Argenteuil.
While I do at this point expect a Bloc Quebecois victory it is not yet certain and the Conservatives could still win here if the conditions are right.
03 05 05 MM
Before the 2004 remapping of the federal circonscriptions, the riding of Vaudreuil-Soulange included two or three Anglophone municipalities located in the Island of Montreal (Baie D'Urfé, Kirkland, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue). These municipalities, by giving almost all their votes to the Grits, could permit Nick Discepola to ease his advance over Bloc candidates, and offset the Bloc strongholds in Les Côteaux and other southern areas of Soulanges. 2004 has now shown how these municipalities were electorally important for the Liberals. This riding is very polarized between the Vaudreuil northern part (mostly Anglophone and federalist) and the Soulanges southern area (mostly francophone and obviously more prone to vote for the BQ actually). The geography of this riding now favours the Bloc, like Argenteuil-Mirabel.
03 05 05 Paul
If Nick Discepola presents himself again, and last news was he will, he has no chance at all. He would be lucky to finish second.
Incumbent Meili Faille is popular in the riding, unlike Discepola who only won because of his party, not the other way around.
People see Discepola as a wannabe careerist who doesn't care about the riding. They put up with him for three elections just to keep out the Bloc.
Now that the Bloc has the riding anyway, expect the CPC to get a significant number of federalist votes.
If the Conservatives start rising in Quebec, however, the riding will have a chance to move in the CPC column (as it is more federalist than the average), especially if rumours to the effect the CPC plans to run a star candidate here come true.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
If it weren't for the adscam, this would be a safe liberal riding since it went liberal even in 1993. But after losing it in 2004, it is next to impossible that the liberals will regain this riding.
26 04 05 Neal
Nick Discepola may think he can make a comeback, but that won't be happening while Adscam is in the air. The riding is more Francophone than it was when he first won it in '93, and will certainly remain with Meili Faille of teh Bloc. Discepola will fare even more poorly as the Conservative numbers rise and split the federalist vote further.



Soumettez l'information ici

Actualité provinciale
2006 - élection générale
Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster