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11:06 AM 04/01/2006

La prévision a changé
12:34 AM 03/05/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2005 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Garnet Colly
Bloc Québécois
Denis Martel
Bernard Patry
Don Rae
Shameem Siddiqui
Leo Williams

Bernard Patry

2004 Résultats:
Bernard Patry
Marie-Hélène Brunet
Andrea Paine
Danielle Lustgarten
Theodore Kouretas
Jean-François Labrecque
Garnet Colly

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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31 12 05 Mark G.
This is a sure Liberal win on the West Island. Last time, the Conservatives brought in a star candidate in Andrea Paine who made great inroads, but they have realized that this is a Liberal stronghold, and have moved Andrea Paine to a neighbouring riding. This one will stay red, for sure.
07 12 05 SHS
I grew up in this riding and lived there nearly my whole life, even in the years when one parent would vote Tory and the other would vote Liberal. Yes, it's true this used to be a Tory riding, but some people seem to forget that those were the Progressive Conservatives, and that Gerry Weiner was a very popular guy in the local community. In contrast, nobody much cares for Bernard Patry (and I disagree on the same-sex marriage issue; I think his voting against it will hurt him, not help him in this riding where there are a large number of ethnic voters but most are still very socially liberal and support for SSM is high). But now that Quebec is basically a 2-party province, this staunch federalist riding is in no danger of being lost to the Liberals. The Conservatives simply don't have enough inroads in Quebec to contest any seats, and while the francophone population of Pierrefonds is growing, this area is still predominantly anglo and federalist. This is a safe bet for Bernard Patry and the Liberals.
07 12 05
Réélection du Dr Bernard Patry avec une majorité de 20 000 voix. Ce comté est fortement fédéraliste et surtout Libéral. Dr Patry fait un très bon travail dans ce comté et en plus il serait ministrable.
06 12 05 Vote NDP
What Neal fails to understand is that -- unlike homosexuals who often have a personal stake in this issue -- the average heterosexual equal marriage supporter is not an ardent secularist, civil libertarian, or human rights activist: They simply don't care about the personal lives of others and do little more than state their backing for equality in anonymous polls because they think that religious conservatives should stay out of other people's business.
Furthermore, Catholics in Canada support same-sex marriage by the same margin as the national average, thanks in no small part to the social liberalism and the "Cafeteria Catholic" mentality of the average Quebec Catholics, post-Quiet Revolution.
In contrast, religious conservatives, who outnumber homosexuals by a fair margin in Canada, consider their fight against equality to be a sacred mission from their deity and -- galvanised from the pulpit -- will do everything they can to make themselves as vocal as pssobile.
Now obviously, if, at the time of the debate, Canadians narrowly supported equal marriage and overwhelmingly opposed using the Notwithstanding Clause to block it and over 2/3 of Canadians now consider same-sex marriage a closed issue, it's certainly not going to destroy the Liberals in one of the most socially liberal regions of the country given that opposition to equal marriage is most prominent in rural Ontario, Alberta, rural Sasktchewan, rural Manitoba, and the Bible-thumping hickvilles of the B.C. Lower Mainland
With the Bloc irrelevant in this federalist stronghold, anybody predicting a result other than a Liberal landslide is completely deluded.
17 11 05
I would like to mark this one in the Tories favour, but cannot at this point. This is the riding where I live, and it is served by an MP who is not a candidate for cabinet. The Tory Candidate made positive waves in the last election, and though she finished third, Andrea Paine is ready to butt heads with Liberal Bernard Patry once again. She has a much stronger and more experienced team behind her than in 2004, and is herself more experienced, having worked for Tory House leader Jay Hill for most of the past year. She has some name recognition now, and a year's experience as an Ottawa insider under her belt, so she will come across as less green at the doors.
25 05 05 Neal
Bear & Ape, I do live here and for many people, SSM was an issue, enough judging by the mail received by M Patry that he reversed his previous position in favour of it, and has publicly promised to vote against it at 3d reading.
There is a large Jewish community. Two decent sized synagogues, and a rapidly growing Muslim population, with mosques sprouting up, and others expanding.
I know that a significant number of the parishoners from my Catholic Church sent in letters oppsoing SSM. And there are four other Catholic parishes here that are very well attended.
And the Bloc will never, ever win Pierrefonds-Dollard. They only do well in Ile Bizard and Ste Genevieve.
17 05 05 Aric H
Why do people keep on talking about same-sex marriage as if it will influence the outcome of a riding? Same-sex marriage is supported by a majority of Quebecers and I suspect that is the case in this riding where I have spent a lot of time over my life and where my relatives still live. Why is Dr. Patry against it anyway? Did he even poll the riding to see if they buck the provincial trend of most people supporting it, or is he just voting based on his own preferences? In any event, this is a Liberal stronghold now and will not go Bloc and will not go Conservative because this riding only voted for Progressive Conservatives - not the new more right-wing Conservatives. The PC's had this riding until the 1993 election when PC MP Weiner lost it.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
The sizable Francophone portion of this riding may make it a possible BQ win in a parallel universe, but not here or now. This is West Island
11 05 05 NDP Newbie
Social conservatism and homophobia play about as well on Montreal Island as a communist revolution would play in Alberta.
This West Island Anglosnob riding will remain a Liberal landslide even with the Libranos on a verge of a bigger-than-1988 defeat in La Belle Province.
09 05 05 Neal
The Odds just got better on a Patry win here, since he reversed himself, and voted against C-38(Same sex marriage) on 2nd reading. He has told me that IF the Bill ever gets to third reading, he will still vote against it. This will ingratiate himself with the large numbers of practcing catholics, Jews and Muslims in this riding.
I would say that the biggest reason for dumping him is now gone, so barring the Gomery revelations causing a complete collapse in Quebec, the advantage is now Patry's, but I would not count out Andrea Paine of the Tories, who will certainly close the gap this time, at worst.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is one of only 8 ridings in the province that will go Liberal. I'm tempted to go along with Neal here, but I just cant see the tories gaining the votes they'd need to win, nor can I see the Bloc able to take this western montreal riding. This is just a liberal riding, plain and simple.
04 05 05 OLIVER
Last year Neal thought that Pierrefonds-Dollard was in play for the Conservatives as well and they ended up in third place with only 11% of the vote behind the seperatists! If their leader Mr. Harper was to run in this riding he would lose his seat. Just because a riding in Quebec has a significant English population does not mean that they are going to vote Conservative. I believe once again that there will not be ANY Conservatives elected from Quebec but if one wants to make any credible predictions for a Conservative win in Quebec, there is only one riding to predict and that would be Louis St. Laurent.
05 05 05 Initial
West Island Liberal... 51 % minimum pour les libéraux
02 05 05 M. Lunn
One of the few safe liberal ridings left in Quebec. With very few Quebec liberal MPs left after the election, this will greatly increase the chance of Bernard Patry getting a cabinet post.
27 04 05 JC
This is another very safe liberal seat, Quebec may turn into Bloc Quebecois land in this next election, but Pierrefonds-Dollard will solidly stay Liberal.
26 04 05 Neal
This one is no longer a sure bet for the Liberals. Patry is one of the weakest MPs in Ottawa. He will also face the wrath of many. After assuring voters he would not support same sex marriage, he flip-flopped.
The Conservatives will be running Andrea Paine once again, and she has, to her credit remained in the public eye since the last vote.
Though the Bloc finished second in '04, this is one of those ridings where the Federalist vote could be split 3 ways, and the Bloc still couldn't win.
This one is a toss-up at this point, which is , i guess, astep forward from recent history.

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