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4:20 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
11:03 AM 08/05/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2006 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

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Bloc Québécois
Gérard Asselin
Pierre Ducasse
Jacques Gélineau
Randy Jones
Pierre Paradis
Eric Vivier

Gérard Asselin

2004 Résultats:
Gérard Asselin
Anthony Detroio
Pierre Ducasse
Pierre Paradis
Les Parsons

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2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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14 01 06 expat
I grew up in this riding, and it is a fairly unique environment - including politically -- overwhelmingly Francophone, northern/rural, hard core industrial, right hewn, and strongly separatist. I give Ducasse credit for having the cojones to run a campaign here when it is such a uphill battle -- but as a Quebec NPD supporter, I wish the party would find a more promising riding to run a potentially star candidate and member, rather than wasting him here. I suspect he will move into second place this time with the Liberal collapse outside of Montreal, but it won't be anywhere close to knocking off the BQ. As long as the Bloc is contesting elections, this riding will be nearly unassailable territory for them.
13 01 06 Liberty Canada
As much as i'd like to tag Brian Mulroney's old riding with a big "C", this stays with the Bloc....
However, my main purpose in posting here today is to correct Devin Johnston's statement that the NDP has never won in Quebec... It is true that they have never won a seat in general election, but they diid win a by-election once in the riding of Chambly, back in 1990. The candidate was Canada's ralph nader, Phil Edmunston... add that to the trivia books. Mr Edmundston declined to run again in 1993
23 12 05 PB
Ducasse was a star for the NDP last time too, and the results were disappointing. If lightning is to strike anywhere in Quebec for the NDP (and I really doubt that it will), it would be in Outremont where they could steal votes from both the Bloc and Liberals and theoretically win a 3.5-way race with 28% of the vote.
But not here. Easy Bloc win.
05 12 05 JFB
On peut avoir de la sympathie pour le NPD et Pierre Ducasse. On peut très bien l'imaginer terminer 2e dans les circonstances actuelles. Mais de là à le donner gagnant dans Manicouagan, il y a une marge que je ne franchirai jamais. Soyons sérieux! Manicouagan est un comté fortement souvenainiste. Ce qu'il faut sérieusement se demander, c'est pourquoi le NPD n'a pas obligé Ducasse à se présenter à Montréal, là où les ressources humaines et matérielles sont plus facilement disponibles et où Jack Layton ne perd pas une journée complète de campagne pour visiter son bras droit québécois. Victoire du Bloc avec plus de 50% des voix.
02 12 05 M. Lunn
This maybe the NDP's best chance of winning in Quebec, but it won't happen. The Bloc Quebecois is for the most part on the left and unlike the NDP is supports greater decentralization, not a more centralized government, which Quebecers generally don't want. Even if all the federalist vote went NDP, this is too strong a separtist area for them to win. Besides the NDP ran Pierre Ducasse last time around and only got 10%, so while they might improve, it won't be nearly enough to win this.
30 11 05 Devin Johnston
The NDP has never won in Quebec. Moreover, they see it as a barrier to extending their support eastward. Expect the NPD's efforts in la belle province to concentrate almost exclusively on getting Ducasse elected. He is considered a star candidate and a future leader of the party. Like Saanich for the Greens, this single seat is very important to the dippers for symbolic reasons. Winning a single seat in Quebec unlocks the doors to future success in the province, and they will parachute volunteers in from all over the province to make sure it happens.
07 11 05 Vote NDP
Jean Charest and Paul Martin could have 70% approval ratings in Quebec and this riding would still easily go Bloc. Well they don't, and the Bloc will win this riding in a landslide, with Pierre Ducasse and the NDP finishing a distant second. The Liberals and Conservatives (this ain't Mulroney country anymore) will both post embarrassing results here.
26 10 05 Nick Boragina
Even running against possibly the most popular new democrat ever, the bloc MP was able to hold on here. Even the Liberals beat Ducasse, which goes to show that party loyalty counts as much as personality sometimes. That being said, this riding is loyal to quebec nationalism, and so it will vote.
Cette circonscription possède une forte majorité bloquiste et la gardera certainement lors de la prochaine élection
12 05 05 M. Lunn
This was Brian Mulroney's old riding in 1984 when he had good relations with both federalist and the separtists, which is why he got over 70% in the 1984 election in this riding. This is also where Pierre Ducasse ran last election and should he some day become the NDP leader, he might take this as the first NDP seat in a general election in Quebec. However, the Tories and the NDP won't win any seats in Quebec where the liberals won't outside of the predominately Anglophone and Immigrant ridings, meaning a solid Bloc win.
10 05 05 Marco
I'm predicting a Bloc win here, but the thing to watch on election night is who will come in second. I think Gomery will cost the Liberals enough federalist votes to vault Pierre Ducasse of the NDP into second place.
10 05 05 Neal
And to think that this used to be Brian Mulroney's seat..... sigh.....
07 05 05 CS
Comté à forte tradition souverainiste !

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