17 01 06	Dave-o
At this level of support, look for 6-8 seats within an hours drive of the City Walls to go Conservative in Quebec: http://lcn.canoe.com/lcn/infos/national/elections/archives/2006/01/20060116-181425.html Selon un sondage TVA/Journal de Québec/Léger Marketing, Josée Verner, la candidate conservatrice, devance son adversaire du Bloc québécois de 19 points. Si les élections avaient lieu aujourd'hui, elle recueillerait 42% des voix contre 23% pour Bernard Cleary du Bloc québécois. Isa Gros-Louis, la candidate du Parti libéral, récolterait, quant à elle, 10% des voix. Il ne reste que 10% au candidat du NPD.
	17 01 06	full
Josée Verner, along with Maxime Bernier and possibly Lawrence Cannon will represent Québec in the new conservative governement. According to two local polls she receive 42% and 50%, respectively with the Liberal being almost in the single digits and the Bloc at roughly 25%. Such an advance is too important to be lost in 1 week.
	17 01 06	Brian Dell
CROP survey for La Presse of 300 constituents (for a margin of error of 6%) has Verner at 59% support. Additional polling questions about Cleary indicate very high levels of dissatisfaction with the incumbent. Time for the Tories to call it a safe seat.
	17 01 06
Today's riding-specific poll shows Conservative candidate Verner leading with 59%, followed by BQ's Cleary with 22% and the Liberal Gros-Louis with 6%. That's a hell of a lead for Verner. She will likely be taking votes both from the BQ and the Liberals. In the Quebec context where the BQ and the Liberals are traditionally occupied mostly fighting against each other, the Conservative candidate may appear as a possible alternative choice both for the traditionally Liberal and BQ electorates. BQ's Cleary was already considered in danger in this riding and, with the Conservative candidate leading in the polls, the potential Liberal voters will probably be tempted to add to the Conservative vote to avoid a BQ win.
	17 01 06	JFB
Sondage CROP-La Presse du 17 janvier 2006 pour le comté de Louis-Saint-Laurent: Conservateur 50%, Bloc 19%, Libéral 6%, NPD 5%. Victoire de Josée Verner.
	17 01 06	kdawg
I am not making this up. from Cyberpresse.ca Le mardi 17 janvier 2006 SONDAGE CROP - LA PRESSE - 98,5 – INFO690 - CKAC Dans la circonscription de Louis-Saint-Laurent, près de Québec, les jeux semblent faits aussi. Conseillère de Stephen Harper pour le Québec, Josée Vermer obtient 59 % d'appui, devançant de très loin le député bloquiste actuel, Bernard Cleary, le député sortant dont les électeurs sont le plus insatisfaits, selon CROP.
	16 01 06	Victor A.
I have to change my prediction here as well. According to the new Leger Marketing/TVA/Journal de Québec poll Josée Verner overwhelmingly leads her competition in this race. She has the support of 42 % of the votes, the controversial incumbent Bernard Cleary ( Bloc Québécois ) has the support of 23 % of the voters and Isa Gros-Lous ( Liberal ) has the support of 10 % just as does the NDP candidate. http://lcn.canoe.com/lcn/infos/national/elections/archives/2006/01/20060116-181425.html Tomorrow, the CROP/La Presse poll is likely to (re)confirm Verner's lead. It looks like Cleary's missteps and Duceppe's overconfidence didn't pay off.
	16 01 06	Mike Berthold
The latest Leger poll (January 16) has Verner at 42% compared to 23% for incumbent Cleary and 10% for the Liberals and NDP. At this point, with Tory support on the rise in Quebec, it looks like a lock for Verner, and a future cabinet post in a Harper government.
	16 01 06	JFB
Sondage Journal de Québec présenté à TVA le 16 janvier: Conservateur 42%, Bloc 23%, Libéral 10%, NPD 8%. Ce qui laisse présager une victoire facile de Josée Verner le 23 janvier.
	15 01 06	Bear and Ape
This is part prediction, part hopeful optimism. THE CPC has some new found strength in the provence and is gaining at BQ expense. This being the case, it seems that they can take this riding. We are not too optimistic to think that they may take much else (maybe one other riding), but if they do steal some of the BQ vote in close races it may ensure Liberals keep a few of their existing seats.
	13 01 06	expat
What cabinet post are they going to find for Verner? If the polls showing the Conservatives are at 20%+ in Quebec are accurate, there is no way that this is anything other than a Conservative win. Even when they were bombing in Quebec in 2004, she nearly pulled off a win - now that they are riding high nationally and competitive in Quebec, the voters here will be able to vote with confidence that they are electing a high profile cabinet member. She's a strong candidate (up against a BQ incumbent who isn't anyone's idea of a strong member). (Sadly the very promising Liberal candidate - a smart young aboriginal woman - will be squeezed out in the battle between the Cons and the Bloc - her candidacy is being wasted on a losing year and won't be going to Ottawa - but maybe she'll be back in the future)
	11 01 05
Lors du dernier débat des chefs en Français, Stephen Harper à laisser sous entendre que Madame Verner s'y elle étais élue, ferait partie du conseils des ministres, donc je crois que les électeurs de cette circonsription ne seront pas insensible à cet annonce. Donc parce qu'elle a eue de très bon resultats en 2004 avec peu de moyen (moins de 10 personnes) parce qu'elle a pour cette campagne une très bonne organisation solide et complète et parce qu'elle est Ministrable, je suis depuis ce débat convaincu que Madame Verner sera élue !
	07 01 06	Stéphane Gaudet
Si la percée des conservateurs au Québec persiste jusqu'au jour du vote, cette circonscription élira la conservatrice Josée Verner. Les sondages des derniers jours montrent que le Bloc est en voie de perdre environ 4-5%, soit 10% de son vote. Et les conservateurs, eux, doublent leur score de 2004. Victoire conservatrice très prévisible, encore plus si les conservateurs se dirigent vers une victoire au Canada. Verner est ministrable et les gens de la circonscription ne seront pas insensibles à ce fait. Je ne croyais pas à une victoire du PCC ici, je pensais plus à la Beauce, mais finalement je crois que les conservateurs gagneront ces deux sièges vu leur essor indéniable au Québec.
	06 01 06	JFB
Le 15 novembre dernier, j'affirmais qu'il était impossible que les Conservateurs l'emportent dans Louis-St-Laurent. Pour ce faire, il aurait fallu que le PCC prenne une sérieuse avance sur les Libéraux au Canada anglais, afin de briser la polarité du vote entre Bloc et Libéraux. Ou encore que le PCC ne soit pas dans les marges d'erreur au Québec. Or, le PCC est maintenant entre 12 et 16% au Québec, et il est même plus fort que ça dans la région de Québec. Et les derniers sondages pan-canadiens montrent que le PCC pourrait l'emporter au Canada anglais. La région de Québec pourrait bien envoyer deux conservateurs à Ottawa, l'un en Beauce, l'autre dans Louis-Saint-Laurent, ces deux circonscriptions présentant des situations fort particulières. Une victoire conservatrice est maintenant possible, ici, le 23 janvier prochain.
	20 12 05
Le comté de Louis Saint-Laurent sera remporté par madame Josée Verner le 23 janvier prochain puisqu'elle mène une campagne très combative sur le terrain et en plus des anciens libéraux ont même transférés chez les conservateurs pour assurer l'élection de la candidate. Selon les derniers sondages le Parti conservateur recueille environ 18% des intentions de vote dans la région de Québec, alors il peut être intéressant de voir l'élection autre qu'un bloquiste dans Louis-SAint-Laurent. N'Oubliez pas que Bernard Cleary ne fait pas l'unanimité dans les rangs du Bloc et auprès de la population il n'est pas très populaire.
	18 12 05	Victor A.
Oh my, oh my. This riding could turn into a Quebec version of Oshawa 2004 in this upcoming election. Normally, under current circumstances it should go to the Bloc without a doubt, but the BQ MP is just a unique man. I'm not saying he's good or bad, he's just very different from what we're used to get as your typical non-descript BQ MP. Call Bernard Cleary colourful or controversial, whatever you prefer he's certainly one of a kind and today's report on the riding on CPAC just reaffrimed what I felt about him. Frankly, the best idea for the BQ would have been to challenge Cleary in a nomination for this election since realistically he can lose a riding that the BQ should be in position to easily hold onto. Watching today's report I understood why Josée got such a huge and surprising percentage of the votes, granted this is the riding where the combined PC Party and Canadian Alliance got their second best result in Quebec ( out of 75 ) in the 2000 election and if there is some fertile ground for Conservatives in Quebec it is right here, in Beauce and in the Chutes de la Chaudiere and Lotbiniere areas south of Quebec City. Verner is without a doubt a good campaigner, well articulated politician that is able to reasonate well with suburban Quebec City, but in my opinion she is seriously handicapped by Harper's leadership of the Party at this time. She got such a large percentage of the votes because of her personality, relatively conservative riding for Quebec but above all because of Cleary himself, his style is just so different that many people can get ticked off by him. Apparenly some Quebec City newspapers such as Le Soleil continue to write on a regular basis what's going on with Cleary and highlight new controversies around him, be it his bankrupcy, Court issues against some people, and so on and so forth. On top of that, Liberals nominated an interesting candidate as well, Isa Gros-Louis, a daughter of a Huron Chief of a Huron Nation in the riding. Her father is very well known figure in the area and she can certainly benefit from it. She's targeting mostly the older population and should without a doubt get a better result than the Liberal candidate in 2004, on a basis of her name, among other things. Cleary will certainly get a lower percentage of votes this time around but I also feel Verner will as well and at the end of the day, it will not be enough to win. Gros-Louis is likely to come third because in my opinion just won't recover enough ground to pass ahead of Verner. We have to remember a lot of people still vote for the party and are willing to close their eye on Cleary's colourfull personality. Verner still has a chance to win it, remember this is the relatively well-off riding in Quebec City, but she has to continue working hard and doing a lot of door-to-door, she'll also need a bit of luck to win it. Frankly, I don't think Gros-Louis stands a chance to win it, however in a very close contest like this one she might just be able to pull it off, but it'd require not only a lot of luck but also some irregular vote splitting between the Conservatives and the BQ. My prediction: BQ: 33 %, Conservative 30 %, Liberal 26 %. It's literally turning into Oshawa 2006! Very interesting riding.
	18 12 05	love, sydney
The fact that Isa Gros-Louis is a real asset as a candidate, not just a pretty face - turns this race into a photo finish. There's a big political organization that her father has and if it works with the Grits, this is what would be one of the nations top surprises, at least for those outside the province.
	01 01 06	Alex
Je crois qu'il y aura victoire conservatrice dans cette circonscription pour ces raisons: 1) Les Québécois sentent la possibilité de l'arrivée des conservateurs au 24 Sussex et veulent élire des conservateurs au Québec, or Mme Verner est très «ministrable»; 2) À la dernière élection, Mme Verner n'avait que 4 bénévoles pour faire une campagne et elle était très proche du bloquiste Cleary, alors qu'aujourd'hui, elle a une solide équipe. 3) Même si le «roi des ondes», Jeff Fillion n'y est plus pour l'appuyer, Josée Verner a déjà bénéficier de son appui et les gens se souviendront, car l'élection ne date que de juin 2004.
	03 12 05	CB
Conservative Josee Verner will not be elected. Her good showing last time stemmed from a division of the Liberal vote between her, the Liberal candidate, the incumbent MP running as an independent, and a series of other third-party candidates. Liberals in the riding are more united now. This is an easy win for the Bloc, even more than last time.
	02 12 05	M. Lunn
This is definitely the most likely riding to go Conservative if they win any seats in Quebec, but I still think the Bloc Quebecois will hold this as their numbers have gone up since last time, so even if the Tories get 38%, that won't be enough to win this. They would need to get over 40% to take this, which I cannot see happening. The only way they could take this would be if the Liberal vote collapsed and rallied around the Tories, but the values between the Liberals and Tories are too different to pull a large enough chunk of Liberals over to the Tories to win this.
	29 11 05	Robert Boyd
The massive drop in Liberal party support will benefit the federalist Conservatives more than the separatist Bloc. The Bloc are at historic highs (repeat of 2004), and can only go down from here. Expect a close race with federalists falling behind the Tories, resulting in a Conservative victory. This may be the only seat in Quebec they pick up.
	29 11 05	Pierre
Avec la déconfiture probable des Libéraux au Québec, les électeurs fédéraliste de cette circonscription ne se tournerons pas vers le Bloc, ils iront vers les Conservateurs et n'oubliez pas que lors des dernières élections la candidates Conservatrice et seulement qu'a quelques milier de vote du Blocquiste... Donc, enlevé quoi ... 7000 votes au libéraux donnez en 1000 au Blocquiste et le reste au candidat Conservateur et vous avez le 2e compté Québécois après Pontiac à tomber aux mains des conservateurs.
	29 11 05	TL
This is the one to win. Stephen Harper has made it one of his first campaign stops, and the resources for a win here are almost unlimited. Tories are fighting for the win, and the passion for a Tory win here is above any of the other parties hopes for victory.
	30 11 05
Chaude lutte à prévoir! Après l'élection de 2004 une partie du comté de Portneuf fut ajouter a celui de Louis-Saint-Laurent , le comté de portneuf a faire élire aux élection de 1993, 1997 et 2004 un candidat du bloc avec de bonne majorité. Sauf lors de l'élection de 2000 lorsque que le candidat libéral fut élu avec 2500 voix d'avance sur le Bloquiste. Le comté de Louis-St-Laurent à voter avec une forte majorité pour les partis fédéralistes(Conservateur,Libéraux et NPD) lors des dernières élections si ont les rassemble ensemble sa fait environ 25 000 pour les partis fédéralistes et 17 000 pour les Bloquistes. Alors il nous reste a attendre de savoir si les fédéralistes vont se réunir ensemble pour voter tous pour le même parti fédéraliste.Et vu l'impopularité des conservateurs je donne victoire aux Libéraux.
	30 11 05	L.O.
Last time around I made a prediction of one Tory seat in Quebec based on simply looking at the last results and viewing it as a long shot at best. This time around this riding stands as a riding with more proven federal Conservative support than many ridings in Canada where the Tories are still considered to be "in the race." One third of the vote is no small matter. Verner got that *before* she was made Quebec Caucus chair and before her name was in the local and provincial news much more often. Quebeckers know that if there is a minority Conservative government (certainly a possibility with Ipsos placing Liberals and Tories tied at 31% a piece [A result which, when entered into the Hill and Knowlton election predictor produces a thin Tory Minority prediction], it will be a given that they will need a cabinet minister from Quebec. They know this riding is being targeted. They know Harper is willing and interested in keeping Verner in a high profile and important position. Also, putting on more of a long lense, the area surrounding and melding into Quebec city is traditionally an area where a non-Liberal alternative to the PQ/BQ have done well. From the days of Rodrigue Biron and the Union Nationale to the days of Mario Dumont and Action Democratique, there has been a core here in the community that makes a Conservative candidate much more of a challenge to the powers that be. The CPC candidates can't be called outsiders nor can the party. I believe the Conservatives have a fighting distant chance in the ridings of Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Portneuf, and Lévis-Bellechasse (all ridings where they've managed under worst possible circumstances to still get between one fifth and one quarter of the voters). I believe they have a fighting chance in Pontiac (22.1% plus Lawrence Canon - a very high profile candidate). But this riding is still probably as good a s shot as they have. And the thing is . . . when you look at election results from Saskatchewan where Tory Candidates *won* with less tha one third of the vote and *less* net support than they had the previous time, one must be fair enough to apply the same standard here. This is likely a Conservative gain.
	21 11 05	Ex-liberal
Even though this riding was the one where the Conservatives had their best result in the entire province, it is far from certain that they will manage to pick up this riding. Josée Verner's local popularity has sunk since the last election as more and more voters see her as all style and no substance -- sort of a Kim Campbell without the stature. The best chance for the Tories to win here would be to find a more credible candidate, and I don't see this as happening. Even if the Conservatives manage to pick up support elsewhere in Quebec, they will have more difficulty to win here than what 2004 results suggests. I therefore predict the Bloc will keep this riding -- Liberals are no longer a factor here.
	15 11 05	JFB
En y regardant de près, il est impossible que les Conservateurs l'emportent dans Louis-St-Laurent. Pour ce faire, il aurait fallu que le PC prenne une sérieuse avance sur les Libéraux au Canada anglais, afin de briser la polarité du vote entre Bloc et Libéraux. Or, on constate que les Libéraux sont toujours en forte avance en Ontario et dans les Maritimes. Sans compter que le NPD devance même les Conservateurs dans les derniers sondages au Québec. Alors pour l'emporter contre le député bloquiste sortant, qui a gagné par plusieurs milliers de voix, il faudrait rien de moins qu'un miracle. Victoire du Bloc.
	04 11 05	K. Wasko
If the Conservatives plan to win the upcoming election, they must have representation across the country. This seat is the best chance they have of winning a seat and their efforts in Quebec will be concentrated here. Watch for a close race; one in which Verner wins by a slight margin.
	02 10 05
Expect the Tories to majorly target this area with a flock of campaigners from all over Canada. This is one of the only ridings the Conservatives have a chance of winning, and if they win it, it'll give them a chance to win other ridings in the next election to come. If Josee Verner wins, I'd say it'd be a sqeaker.
	13 07 05
Ça me surprend beaucoup de voir les gens croire que le PCC va gagner ce comté. Il ne faut pas oublié que le BQ a remporté par plus de 4 000 voix le comté...c'est pas rien ça. Par ailleurs, les gens surestiment la valeur de Josée Verner. Si elle avait été candidate dans le comté de Shefford, elle aurait obtenu une distante troisième place. Le Parti conservateur n'obtient pas beaucoup d'appui au Québec depuis un an. Il ne faudrait pas être surpris de voir le PCC perdre des appuis au Québec. Les commentaires de Haprer concernant la valeur moins important du vote québécois dans le cas des mariages gais n'ont certainement pas donné un bon coup de main au PCC. Le Bloc va remporter sans trop de difficulté.
	13 06 05	Kathy T
Verner will win a squeaker. This is the Conservative's most competitive riding in Quebec. In addition, she is not a social Conservative, and her party needs people like her to get elected. If the Conservative's win the election, she'll be in cabinet if she wins. Forming government but having no seats in Quebec could be a huge embarrassment.
	15 05 05	Carl Vallée
Le PCC va mettre beaucoup d'efforts pour remporter ce comté-ci. De plus, Verner peut compter sur l'organisation adéquiste du comté provincial. Ce sera un des 2 seuls comtés conservateurs au Québec, avec la Beauce.
	15 05 05	sam
Lutte serré à prevoir, Mme Verner pourrait être élu, mais elle n'est pas très presente dans le comté, car elle travail a Ottawa et fait le tour du Québec, a titre de lieutenante de Stephan Haper au Quebec. Plusieurs rumeurs veut que Jean-Philippe Côté ce présente pour le PLC, candidat dans Québec en 2004, tandis que Bernard Cleary doit ce rappeler la 3ième position du Parti Quebecois lors des élèctions partielles dans Vanier!
	14 05 05	A.S.
It's the suburban-belt Quebec heartland of CHOI-FM mookdom; that's why the Canadian Alliance did especially well here in '00, and why Josee Verner was the top of Stephen Harper's Quebec ladder in '04 (though a contentious aboriginal Bloc candidate may have helped juice up her tally). Having proven herself as a candidate and now in the shadow cabinet, Verner's *officially* the CPC "Quebec strategy" litmus, now--will she win? And any other "CHOI-FM Tories" on her coattails? Trouble is, it may all be nullified by the Bloc steamroller overdrive, anyway--I'm more willing to bet on Pontiac (less Tory share in '04, but more efficient, and sufficiently peripheral to heavy-breathing PQ/BQ/Oui heartland, and Lawrence Cannon's candidacy to boot). A footnote to 2004 in L-S-L: disgraced ex-Liberal MP Jean-Guy Carignan's name was on the ballot, and he earned 563 votes, or 1.25%--the worst result for a sitting MP in living memory (ever?)
	13 05 05	jllavoie
La division du vote fédéraliste aidera encore une fois le Bloc Québécois dans cette ciconscription électorale. Le député sortant, Bernard Cleary sera réélu mais avec une majorité réduite compte-tenu de la présence de José Verner comme candidate conservatrice.
	11 05 05	ToJo
It seems that a lot of Albertan Conservatives have been posting their deepest desires in this riding rather than putting their thinking caps on. Basically this seat is up for grabs between the Bloc and CPC... with the Liberals playing an important role. They are still far more popular in Quebec than Stephen Harper with his Canadian Reform/Alliance Party ties. Because of this many will still vote Liberal or stay home - you will approx. the same voting percentages as last time. I predict an even larger Bloc win.
	10 05 05	Neal
Cette comte dans le coeur de Quebec, a donne le meilleur result pour un candidat Conservateur au province. Mme Josee Verner devrait le remporter cette fois, car l'appui federaliste pour les Liberaux a chute, la victoire de Mme Verner sera assure si les sondages nationales indiquent une victoire Conservateur. The collapse of the Liberal vote in Francophone Quebec will be enough to put Josee Verner over the top, and the clincher would be polls late in the campaign indicating a Conservative government is likely. Mme Verner was rewarded for her performance with a shadow cabinet position even though she was not actually elected. She will take down Mr Cleary this time, now that the Liberals will not be much of a factor.
	09 05 05	Craig
Josee Verner's somewhat surprising result last time gave the Conservatives room to work with. That meant that she became the party's Quebec lieutenant despite not winning the seat. The Liberals were also quite strong here before they started to melt down in Quebec with over 10,000 votes. That means Verner has additional federalist help available, and that will take her over the top as one of two Conservatives elected in Quebec. Predicted results: CPC 39%, BQ 34%, LIB 16%, GRN 5%, NDP 4%, others 2%.
	03 05 05	Jérémie Martin
Nick’s description is optomistic and while the riding has a good conservative base(with the recent victory of ADQ), Josée has really no big substance, charisma or notable ideas. If she's the Conservative ltn. in Quebec, it's quite sad cause youve got a legion of NDP or Green candidates that have more substance than here!
	03 05 05	RWA
This is the Conservatives' biggest target in Quebec. If the national trend shows a Tory government is likely, it may flip. Otherwise, the Bloc holds.
	03 05 05	TC
The Conservatives finished a very close second to the Bloc last time, with the margin of difference being 3000 votes, If the Liberals bleed off a significant portion of there votes to the Conservatives, you might see this as the only Conservative seat in Quebec come election night.
	03 05 05	Kyle Simunovic
Josee Verner has been doing tonnes of work here even though she was not elected. Voters know her now and the CPC will be targeting this riding like you would not believe. I predict this will be the only conservative riding in Quebec and it will be by 2%-5%.
	03 05 05
En 2004, la candidate conservatrice Josée Verner a finit deuxième avec 31%. Malgré sa défaite, elle a eu une bonne couverture en plus d'être présenté comme un future ministre conservatrice. Elle peut compter sur l'organisation adéqusite du député de Vanier(une des deux circonscription provinciale qui est dans Louis Saint Laurent) Sylvain Légaré et de son organisation qui ont eux même dit qu'ils n'appuierait pas le bloc ni le plc en ondes. De plus, Madame Verner peut compter sur le soutient de la très populaire et impliquée dans la communauté station de radio Choi 98.1 fm Radio X(malgré que son animateur vedette n'est plus) car certains animateurs à Choi Fm dont Denys Gravel soutiennet ouvertement les conservatures.Les conservateurs ont soutenu Choi Fm afin qu'elle ne ferme pas. Une victoire avec 2 à 4 % de plus sur le blocistes qui est de plus pas très aimé dans le quartier Laurentien.
	04 05 05	David Pagé
Si Mme Verner n'a pas pu gagné le comté lors des dernières élections, je ne vois pas ce qui pourrait la faire gagner ce coup-ci. Soit les conservateurs ont bien fait la dernière fois, soit l'A.D.Q. a gagné la partielle dans Vanier l'automne dernier, mais le Bloc Québécois est trop fort au niveau des francophones pour que ce comté vote autre chose. La seule chance de Mme Verner, un effondrement du vote libéral en sa faveur dans le but de ne " pas diviser le vote pour le Canada ". N'y comptons pas... les Libéraux sont encore en avant des Conservateurs au Québec et je ne vois pas ce qui pourrait faire tourner ce vent.
	05 05 05	Brandon
This was the best riding for the CPC in the last election. Josee Verner has been high profile (part of Harper's shadow cabinet) and is running again. She lost by 3,000 votes. Liberal federalist votes (now that the Liberals have plunged very low, below the Tories in Quebec according to a few polls) will go to the Conservatives more than the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories alone are also up in the polls in Quebec (by a little bit). This will be tight and is probably too early to call as of yet. But I am willing to place my bets on Josee Verner, who would be in Cabinet if Harper forms government.
	06 05 05	M. Lunn
This is definitely the Conservatives best hope at winning a seat in Quebec. Expect them to pour lots of resources into this riding since a Conservative win without any seats in Quebec would be a huge embarassment. Josee Verner will almost certainly be a cabinet minister if she wins and the Conservatives win since this maybe their only Quebec seat. Nevertheless, with most of the liberal vote going to the Bloc, I don't think a conservative win is guaranteed. If the polls show the conservatives will win the election, they will win this since most Quebecers would like at least one member on the government side. But if the liberals maintain a lead into the election, expect the Bloc to hold the riding.
	06 05 05	Nick Boragina
This is the strongest tory riding in the province, and everyone know's it. Not only did they finish second here last time, but they placed a good second. The MP who was elected here was the least popularly elected bloc MP in terms of %age of vote, and he does not stand a chance. The CPC's candidate, Mrs.Verner is already in the shadow cabinet despite being seatless. The party machine here has been telling everyone that this is the one riding to win. Looking at the 2004 predictions from this site, this was a surprisingly strong riding, if the tories can do this well unexpectedly, imagine how well they can do being targetted like there's no tomarrow. The Liberals are down by at least 10% in the province much of those voters, especially the federalists, have gone Tory, or NDP. Here is the basis for my argument: First off, even without Gomery, with a tory second, and a clear tory second here, this election coming up would have been quite clear. The tory campaigners would have told Liberal and NDP federalists that either they vote tory to beat the Bloc, or vote someone else, and the Bloc wins. Beyond this, we have gomery, which has already turned alot of Liberals into Tories for the simple fact that both are federalists. Verner, who is in the shadow cabinet, has become the all but official tory Quebec Lt. She is the one who speaks for the province at the caucus table, more so then the senators. Now that the tories know this is their stronges riding, they will target it. Now that the people know that this is their strongest riding, some people here will feel obligated to give the tories a voice, even if only 100 people do, that's 100 less votes they need to make up in the gap. I expect to see many many other predictions, mostly from tory members, saying the same thing I am. I want to urge the prediction team to take a serious look at this riding. I am a Liberal, but I think this riding is the only resonable choice for the tories in Quebec. If I dont see this riding officially predicted by you guys as a tory win, I certainly hope to at least see it as a riding to watch.
	26 04 05	JFB
Probablement le seul comté prenable pour les Conservateurs, avec Josée Verner. Bonne performance lors des dernières élections fédérales, sans compter l'élection d'un député adéquiste, tout près, dans Vanier, au provincial. La machine adéquiste sera mise à contribution. Courte victoire des Conservateurs.
	01 05 05	Nick Boragina
This is the strongest tory riding in the province, and everyone know's it. Not only did they finish second here last time, but they placed a good second. The MP who was elected here was the least popularly elected bloc MP in terms of %age of vote, and he does not stand a chance. The CPC's candidate, Mrs.Verner is already in the shadow cabinet despite being seatless. The party machine here has been telling everyone that this is the one riding to win. Looking at the 2004 predictions from this site, this was a surprisingly strong riding, if the tories can do this well unexpectedly, imagine how well they can do being targetted like there's no tomarrow. The Liberals are down by at least 10% in the province much of those voters, especially the federalists, have gone Tory, or NDP. Here is the basis for my argument: First off, even without Gomery, with a tory second, and a clear tory second here, this election coming up would have been quite clear. The tory campaigners would have told Liberal and NDP federalists that either they vote tory to beat the Bloc, or vote someone else, and the Bloc wins. Beyond this, we have gomery, which has already turned alot of Liberals into Tories for the simple fact that both are federalists. Verner, who is in the shadow cabinet, has become the all but official tory Quebec Lt. She is the one who speaks for the province at the caucus table, more so then the senators. Now that the tories know this is their stronges riding, they will target it. Now that the people know that this is their strongest riding, some people here will feel obligated to give the tories a voice, even if only 100 people do, that's 100 less votes they need to make up in the gap. I expect to see many many other predictions, mostly from tory members, saying the same thing I am. I want to urge the prediction team to take a serious look at this riding. I am a Liberal, but I think this riding is the only resonable choice for the tories in Quebec. If I dont see this riding officially predicted by you guys as a tory win, I certainly hope to at least see it as a riding to watch.