17 01 06	Janey
Definitely too close to call. I know someone who was at the Woodstock Conservative rally and the feeling was like the Tories' 1999 win provinciall - tough the TJ says that is true in Fredericton as well. But this is even more so of a close call given that Mike Allen - who the Grits are nastily calling "son of a cor" and that derision will hurt them (NBers do not care for that openly - whispering campaigns seems fine tho, lol) - is well liked and some Liberals I spoke to today said when they met with him about a topic they were passionate about, they came away very happy with him. He is Ed Allen's son and yes, Mr. Allen did run and WIN for the COR party but he was well liked and an intelligent man. Savoy has had a high profilebut has been lucky in the choice of his adversaries. Even Adam Richardson - who some predicted would win this seat for the Alliance - had an arragant air about him that turned me off when I met him and Iwas not voting there. Buit Mike Allen - who I do not know - is not regarded like that and the national trends place this riding in the TCTC section, with the Conservatives being the recipient of most of the changing votes.
	13 01 06	nbpolitico
This needs to be moved back into the TCTC column. With a Tory surge (they lead slightly 42-21 in NB on an Omnifacts Bristol poll on ATV tonight) and Harper's successful visit to Woodstock this week, this will turn out to be as close as the race in 2000. The winner will take it by no more than 500 votes.
	10 01 06	Politicalwatcher
Conservative candidates Mike Allen and J-P Ouellet (Madawaska-Restigouche) scored a coup by being invited by provincial MLA and Intergovernmental affaires Minister, PC Percy Mockler to a photo op in front of the now closed Saint-Leonard Airport. They decried the lack of funding help provided for small regional airports and suggested that they (conservatives) would do better by providing funding.
	28 12 05	HiTech Red Neck
View from the South of the Riding Looking North! The differences between Canterbury and Saint Andre, Stanley and Woodstock, Grand Falls and Keswick are as obvious as the differences between Andy Savoy and Mike what's-his-name. This riding has four geographies; "Wanta-be" Cities, Towns, Rural, and "way outback" Rural. The riding has two Demographics; "old" and "getting much older". And finally, the riding has three distinct cultures; French, English, and Native. The view from the South is very different than the view from the Center and North. But we do have one thing in common, we have a Member of Parliament who in two elections, and in just five years, has done more for this forgotten part of the world than any other MP before him. And if rumours are true, we may even have someone in Cabinet. Then just watch the attention this part of the country gets - North, Central, and South.
	13 12 05	Karen MacDonald
Savoy will be re-elected, no doubt. He has worked hard for this riding - I read in the Victoria Star that the ACOA Minister said Andy Savoy has delivered more federal $$$ per MP than any other MP in Atlantic Canada. Take a look around at all the projects that are going on in this riding, i.e. Plaster Rock Arena, Woodstock sewage treatment plant, Florenceville waterfront, etc. etc. etc.
	05 12 05	Politicalwatcher
This riding is quite complex in both its political ideology and in part in its demographic make-up. From largely liberal slightly left francophone/bilingual Grand Falls/Grand-Sault to the right leaning conservative unilingual Anglophone woodstock, this is an interesting mix. The folks from the northern part of the riding aren’t likely to vote for a candidate who used to represent an anti-francophone party (Mike Allen - formerly of COR). As it stands, the middle of the road candidate, who will be acceptable to the a majority of people in all parts of the riding, is probably Mr. Savoy. Thats the prediction at this point.
	02 12 05	nbpolitico
Baring a massive tide sweeping the Tories into office, this riding will stay Liberal. Andy Savoy is vulnerable simply because the name "Liberal" comes after his name in this conservative riding. However, the Tories have nominated the same weak candidate as in the last election. Had they nominated a better candidate, the Tories would have a good shot here, but Mike Allen's only hope for victory is grabbing onto the coat tails of a convincing Tory victory nation-wide.
	23 11 05	Ken Barlow
The incumbent, Andy Savoy, will be re-elected. Now in his second term, he has done more for his riding than most other MP's since he was first elected. Among many other things, the federal/provincial twinning of the entire section of the Trans Canada Highway between Fredericton and the Quebec border which runs through his riding either has been completed or is ongoing, despite the deliberate lack of co-operation of the provincial Conservatives in most other recent federal initiatives such as funding for child-care. Being the chair of the National Liberal Caucus, he probably has frequent access to the ear of the Prime Minister. On matters of serious concern to his constituents, such as same-sex marriage, he consults with them and votes according to his conscience, not along party lines. As a result, his voting record in the House of Commons consistently reflects his constituents' best interests. Mr. Savoy's opponent, Mike Allen, an out-of-towner now with only tenuous connections to the riding, will be supported only by diehard Conservatives to whom voting Conservative is a sacrosant obligation. Otherwise, his imposition on the riding by Stephen Harper, who refused to sign the nomination papers of local resident Adam Richardson to allow him to run against Mr. Allen for the Conservative nomination, has not gone down well in the eyes of most of the riding's voters. (Mr. Richardson had asked Mr.Harper to retract, and to apologise for, diparaging comments Mr. Harper had made about Atlantic Canadians; comments which implied we are a bunch of welfare bums waitng for federal handouts. Mr. Harper refused to do so, and Mr. Richardson has paid the price for his insolence). Mr. Richardson would not have won the seat, but he undoubtedly would have won more votes than Mr. Allen, who lost to Mr. Savoy in the last election and did not even win in the polling booth closest to his own residence! Tobique-Macatquac will again be a landslide for Andy Savoy this time.
	17 09 05	M. Lunn
This is generally a conservative riding, but unlike in 2000, Andy Savoy had the incumbency advantage in 2004 and in the next election and he has been a strong MP who will support the position of his constituents when it differs from the party such as on same-sex marriage. If Adam Richardson had won the Conservative nomination, I would have put this is too close to call since he nearly won as the Canadian Alliance candidate in 2000 and is not a Harper lackey, but an independent minded person who would represent the riding. Mike Allen lost last time and will lose again thanks to Harper's meddling in the riding. This is just one more example of Harper wanting to control the party top down and make sure only like minded people run under the Conservative banner. Thankfully for Conservatives-in-exile, like myself, Harper will be hopefully gone as leader and next time the Conservatives can get a real leader who can win this.
	01 06 05	M. Lunn
I am 90% sure Andy Savoy will win his riding. Had Adam Richardson won the nomination, Andy Savoy would be in trouble, but Harper's meddling in the riding's own affairs will likely hurt the Conservatives. Mike Allen was rejected a year ago so why should people believe that he will do any better this time around. Like in many other ridings the Conservatives could have won, they just shot themselves in the foot.
	22 05 05	SAB
I can't believe that Allan has secured the Tory nomination again after completely blowing it in this riding last time around. He lost to Savoy, a popular constituency guy, by an appalling margin (far worse showing than Adam Richardson in 2000, considering that Richardson was contending with an incumbent PC MP and just missed winning this seat for the CA). Allan would respond by suggesting that his miserable performance last year was attributable to hospital closures by the NB Government. Allan will lose again, unless he learns from past mistakes.
	12 05 05	DS
With the latest kerfuffle over the national Conservative committee rejecting Adam Richardson as a candidate, the Tories may well have sealed their fate in this riding. Mike Allen ran and lost by a convincing margin to Andy Savoy in 2004, and there are no signs that a rematch would yield a different result. Richardson might have fared better, but his being dismissed out of hand may leave a bad taste in the mouths of Tory supporters. Savoy, on the other hand, has kept faith with his constituents on a variety of issues despite going against strict Liberal orthodoxy on many occasions (gun control and same-sex marriage to name a few.) Look for Savoy to keep his seat.
	12 05 05	Neal
As someone pointed out, by nature this is a conservative riding, but Savoy's voting record, especially most recently with regard to same sex marriage will hld him in good stead with the local burghers. Even so, his win in 2000 was unconvincing. he squeaked by PC incumbent Gilles Bernier by 150 votes, with CA's Adam richardson nipping both their heels trailing savoy by a mere 1430! Logically, the combined PC CA vote would have crushed Savoy nearly 2-1. The Conservatives hurt their chances here this past week with the announcement that the same Adam Richardson should not bother seeking the Conservative nomination, since Mr harper would refuse to sign his papers. Hardly a good way to get one's association to rally around one candidate, after a fair fight. I would expect many of Mr. Richardson (a staunch Day supporter) to either stay home on election day, and allow Andy Savoy to take this one back to Ottawa once again.... but if enough people are angry or disappointed enough with the dithering incompetent Martin , enough Richardson supporters may just go out to do their share in putting the Liberal govt. out of its misery. This one could go either way. Does anyone know enough about Mr. Richardson to say whether he's considering an independent run, or would he be more likely to try to mend fences by endorsing the Tory nominee, and perhaps have his day later under a new leader other than Harper?
	04 05 05	M. Lunn
This is certainly a conservative riding by nature, but Andy Savoy is quite popular and so his personal popularity should probably help him. In 2000, the PC/Alliance combined vote was 63% while last time around the Conservatives only got 39% so obviously many of the PC/Alliance supporters from 2000 switched to the liberals. The one factor that could help the Conservatives is they had a former COR candidate and with close to 20% of the riding being Francophone, his position on Bilingualism probably cost them the riding not to mention Scott Reid's stupid comments on Bilingualism. The polls in the Anglophone parts of the riding were pretty evenly split, while the liberals clobbered the Conservatives in the Francophone portions. If they can choose a more decent candidate and considering the fact the Conservatives abandoned their previous objections to Bilingualism, they could pull it off, although it is an uphill battle. This was one of the Conservatives strongest showings of the ridings they didn't win in Atlantic Canada so it will probably be on of their target ridings.
	03 05 05	JC
Savoy won't lose here, he's kept his opposition to same-sex marriage and he has stayed the course, he will win this seat.