2:16 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:18 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Chummy Anthony
Scott Brison
Mary DeWolfe
Bob Mullan
Sheila Richardson

Hon. Scott Brison

2004 Result:
Scott Brison
Bob Mullan
Skip Hambling
Kevin Stacey
Jim Hnatiuk
Richard Hennigar

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 Tory Blue
Let's remember the Tory Roots in this riding. I mean when Joe Clark came back to politics this was the safest seat they could find for him to run in and yes Mr. Brison stepped aside for that.
Now the Progressive argument is a joke to begin with but that notwithstanding does anyone really believe Benedict Brison can staunch the bleeding when PM squared is going to fighting for his own life in Lasalle Emard?
Brison was a good token candidate, no this isn't a gay thing it is a moderate thing but I believe the maritimes is warming up to Harper like much of the rest of the country and if so Brison has made enough enemies to be a solid target.
13 01 06 Josh G.
Bob Mullan failed to answer a direct question on his stance on same-sex marriage yesterday at the all candidates' debate in Wolfville. This was not well received by the audience of the packed theatre, with cries of "shame" heard. If I were to gauge the election result simply by the applause, Brison will win again, but I expect it will much closer this time, with Mary DeWolfe and the NDP doing better, thanks to a much stronger (and organized) campaign than in 2004. The Greens may also capture some more of the anti-Liberal vote, but they remain relatively insignificant due to an extremely weak organization. These factors point to a Liberal win, but this time by no more than one or two thousand votes over the Conservatives. Expect the NDP to post a stronger third, with something in the area of 25% of the vote.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Liberal. Obviously Brison is not guilty of the sponsorship scandal and was on the other side of the aisle the whole time. Obviously Brison is going to support SSM and that will keep some votes. He's perceived as likable and the CBC "Taxi Chat" on him helped that along. A gay floor-crossing Red Tory federal Liberal Cabinet Minister in a red lumberjack shirt picking up NDPers in his cab and driving them around Windsor, NS, the BIRTHPLACE OF HOCKEY?!?
No one has ever seen anything so Canadian.
Add in a Green candidate who is very confused politically and busy with a home care situation, no real organization inherited from the prior campaign, may lead to a few hundred more votes flying back to the Liberal from where they were parked. Brison just has to promise to "green" public works and finally do that "green procurement" that the Auditor-General's office says the Liberals have done nothing on (and which the Liberals admit doing nothing on), and he'll be back. Whether he'll still be a Cabinet Minister depends on Harper. ;-)
09 01 06 M. Lunn
Hill and Knowlton predictor takes national polls and applies them across all regions, when most of the shift in support to the Conservatives has happened in Ontario and Quebec, while in Atlantic Canada the gap has maybe narrowed by a few points, but not much, nor has their been much change in Western Canada either. Since 60% of the population live in Ontario and Quebec a huge shift there totally changes polling numbers. This is a traditional Conservative riding, but Scott Brison is quite popular. Besides unlike Ontario and even now Quebec who seem to have warmed up to Harper, Martin is still way ahead as best PM in Atlantic Canada showing Harper really hasn't gained much traction here over last election.
09 01 06 noneoftheabove
Today's (Jan.9) Hill and Knowlton election predictor gives this riding to the Conservatives. I think all the former PC strongholds in Atlantic Canada will be going blue this time.
14 02 05 Pink Tory
While I hate to say it, I think Scott will come through and win again, albeit with a reduced amount from 2004. He may be the poster boy for traitor amongst us Tories (along with Belinda), but he is liked in his riding...
Unless the Conservatives end up surpassing the Liberals in popular vote by a couple of % points, this will stay Scott. If the polls go to the Tories by 2-4%, this riding will flip. I remain doubtful...
06 12 05 quasar
First, let's analyse how Scott Brison has behaved himself in the last minority government. Yes, he is the minister of public works, and yes, he is "popular" in this riding. Still, apparently, Brison has made immature remarks to a long-time staunch Liberal supporter and volunteer in a public restaurant telling her to "kiss [his] ___" and other rude comments. If this is the case, Dr. Mullan, a likeable guy with a strong profile can make this a win. Also, Brison lied about Harper being an illegal lobbyist in which he was forced to apologize in parliament. This is traditional Tory territory folks, and if Mullan makes Brison's - who solely won based on popularity- discredibility an issue, he can eek out a win.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
This seat has strong Tory roots and the Conservative Party was abnormally weak in Nova Scotia in 2004, and while they won't sweep the province they will get back to more normal levels this time. Claims that Scott Brison is "extremely popular" in his riding are totally unfounded. What is really "extremely popular" here is pork resulting from having a Member of Cabinet. The Conservatives are targeting this riding... which may or may not be a good strategy. In any case, whoever is perceived to be winning a majority days before the vote will win here...
21 11 05 L.O.
Bob Mullan? He's gained profile, not lost it. And while he's probably got a tight battle on his hands, he's already won the local organization war. . .
There used to be a point where Liberal Scott Brison promised not to campaign against the red tory MLAs in his federal riding. He has since broken that promise and alienated many of those who probably stayed clear of the fray the last time out. Mullan will have a provincial Tory machine as well as more disillusioned Brison supporters working with him this time around.
Brison will be a young pensioner very soon.
31 10 05 Steve G
I agree with the concensus here that there should be a Liberal prediction here, not TCTC. This riding is Scott Brison's for as long as he wants it. A note to M. Lunn: I wouldn't be so hasty to attribute virtuous reasons to the turncoat tactics of Brison, Stronach, and Keith Martin. Isn't is rather interesting - make that downright bizarre - that K.Martin didn't seem to have a problem with the relatively uneducated, Bible-thumping Stockwell Day when he was leader of the Canadian Alliance, but he felt "uncomfortable" will the smart, well-educated, and undeniably secular policy wonk Stephen Harper? But back to the topic of this riding...yes, Liberal win, no doubt.
01 11 05 JDF
The predictions of a Liberal landslide are correct. Scott is much loved and now has a prominent portfolio in a sitting government. Enough said.
06 10 05 Nick Boragina
I predicted this one five months ago, back when I was a Liberal. It's 5 months later, I'm a Tory, the polls have changed, and since then, we've gone from 2 Liberal, 2 Tory, 1 TCTC prediction in this riding, to 11 liberal, 2 tory, and 1 TCTC predictions (when counting unique posters). I really dont see why this is TCTC (Too Close Too Call) the only party with a real chance to win here is the tories, and thier polling numbers have been scarce.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Scott Brison may be hated by the Tories, but he is well liked in his riding and they are enough people who will vote for Scott Brison no matter what party he runs under. Scott Brison, Belinda Stronach, and Keith Martin all represent moderate Tories who are uncomfortable with Stephen Harper's more hardcore conservatism and all three of them will be re-elected much to Harper's dismay.
23 05 05 JR
How could anyone call this for anyone but Scott Brison? He is so popular in this constituency that he could run as an independent and win. Bob Mullan taking yet another run here will have no effect and this has never been NDP country. Another landslide........
16 05 05 CGH
Brison will keep his seat. His star has been rising, he is everywhere in that constituency all the time and he's just such a well-liked guy. Mullen couldn't do it first time around and he won't do it this time. The NDP should be stronger here, but they just can't seem to pull it off. This is Brison's riding, no matter what party colours he's wearing.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Mark Parent isn't going to run here, and though he maintains that it has nothing to do with the internal CPC poll, I have trouble believing it. He can't be happy with his life on the PC backbenches in Province House, Brison is an extremely popular fellow who I am now thinking will weather any storm from this scandal. Bob Mullan will dissapoint the CPC...again
09 05 05 RWA
This can be called for Brison. If he didn't lose last time, there's no reason to believe there will be a massive swing of voters away from him now.
09 05 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
Scotte Brison is very popular in this riding. Even with the gomery inquiry he will still be elected. People knows he is not affiliated with the Chrétien Quebec liberal gang. He is a high profile minister in Martin cabinet. To add, the liberal support in the Atlantic Province is at high up over the 45%. People there will not choose a conservative candidate because they are likely to bee stick in the opposition again. So I say Brison win by a shorter margin but still WINS!
09 05 05 Jason Cherniak
This should not be too close to call. The Liberals are ahead by at least 10% in the region and Brison is popular locally. If anything, I bet he will increase his win.
07 05 05 Aric H
Unless the Liberal vote goes down in Atlantic Canada, and unless Scott Brison's personal popularity goes down, I think Brison will be re-elected here. He has a high profile in the Martin Cabinet which I think is actually a good thing, and as Craig Oliver of CTV said during the election night coverage last year, people here vote for him personally.
06 05 05 RJW
Brison will win. Some people here haven't grasped the idea that people don't always vote by party affiliation. Brison is VERY popular. Octogenarians who have voted straight Tory for 60 years voted for Brison last time.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Certainly Scott Brison's appointment to the scandal plagued Public Works ministry may have caused some damage, but I don't think enough to defeat him since he won by 16 points. Had Provincial MLA, Mark Parent ran, then he might have been in trouble since Mark Parent is a red tory who voted against the merger so this would debunk Brison's claim that the Conservatives are all rednecks and homophobes. Still Brison is reasonably popular and may even someday be prime-minister and in my opinion a very good one. I predict Brison will likely be re-elected but by a smaller margin.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
While some will say that Gomery will mean Brison cant win, I disagree. The liberals, even at the worst point in Gomery, still had a strong showing in polls in the atlantic. People here just dont care, we already expected the worst, so having it confirmed does not shake us much. While I agree Gomery will make the Liberals gaining seats nearly impossible, I say that losing them wont be as easy as some tories would like to think. Brison could very well be the next party leader (since he's unconnected to gomery in every way) and his slogan "a good MP" will carry him to another victory.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Now this one is a real toughie. On one hand, Kings-Hants is a traditionally Conservative riding, but on the other hand, Scott Brison is a high-profile cabinet minister and a very popular incumbent to boot. It comes down to the NDP vote, believe it or not, and its because of that, that I am calling Kings-Hants as a Conservative pick-up. The NDP candidate will siphon votes away from Brison and, given that the Conservatives are likely to nominate a strong candidate, he or she will gain the plurality and sneak on in. Prediction: Conservative pick-up by 500 votes or less.
02 05 05 JC
The Conservatives are going to put up a fight for this one due to hatred of Scott Brison, but Brison will return he's way too popular.
02 05 05 Kyle Simunovic
To close to call.
Scott "turncoat" Brison's grip on this riding might just be slipping. The liberal numbers are up in Atlantic Canada, however, if they loose a riding this one might just be it. Conservatives here are eager to take him down and i hear they have a good candidate up their sleaves! It could go either way.
26 04 05 Neal
Brison got re-elected on his reputed merits and has since demonstrated that they are completely illusory. His lack of integrity has become more and more obvious. i hope, and expect the voters of kings-Hants to render judgment on him this time.

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