4:39 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:14 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Cape Breton-Canso
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Rodger Cuzner
Rob Hines
Kenzie MacNeil
Hector Morrison

Rodger Cuzner

2004 Result:
Rodger Cuzner
Shirley Hartery
Kenzie MacNeil
Seumas Gibson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 Mad Caper
The local debate was also a lively affair,the Green Party candidate Mr Hines handled himself very well as did the N.D.P. candidate Mr.Morrison,the Conservative and Liberal Candidate's gave an adequate account of themselves but were far less effective and aggressive than the other two candidates.The New Democrat candidate was by far the most aggressive and had the incumbant Liberal candidate on the defensive for most of the night,based on this fact it was obvious to anyone attending the debate that the N.D.P.candidate Mr.Hector Morrison was clearly the winner.The Conservative candidate Mr.Kenzie MacNeil did well answering the questions but his slow vocal style had the effect of putting those attending to sleep,which did little to help put forth his cause.
11 01 06 Brian A
Cape Breton may be the only safe haven for the Liberals in Nova Scotia during this election. Cuzner is a good incumbent and will hold on here. Prediction: Liberal 44%, NDP 36%, Conservative 16%, Green 4%
20 12 05 Christian Socialism
If Sydney-Victoria is eastern Fife, Cape Breton-Canso is the Cumnock area in Ayrshire; despite being essentially rural it's also got a long mining and industrial history, and like Sydney-Victoria it's voting patterns wouldn't exactly be hard to predict were it in Scotland...
Although in this case it's voting patterns have, of late, been more predictable than it's more urban neighbour (with the wonderful exception of David Dingwall's defeat in 1997) that might not mean much. Interestingly the NDP actually have a longer *federal* history here than in Sydney Victoria (the main predecessor to this riding swung between the Grits and the Dippers for most of the '60's and '70's) and I *think* that their candidate here this time round may actually be stronger than their candidate in Sydney-Victoria (although I could be very wrong about that). As always with Cape Breton, local economic woes mean that things can never be taken for granted; by anyone. And as always with Cape Breton this could just as likely be a blowout as a tight race.
16 12 05 Leo Lehman
Cape Breton is a Liberal sronghold. Roger Cuzner will hold his seat barring a complete collapse of the Liberal party out east.
12 12 05 Mad Caper
Less than a week after the unfortunate announcement about the closure of the Glace Bay Fisheries plant,the impact of the closure and the apparent lack of ability of the current M.P. to obtain government help of any sort to this point, has damaged Liberal M.P. Roger Cuzner in his quest to regain his seat .The talk about town is local support is shifting to N.D.P. candidate Hector Morrison. If this trend continues it should make for a very interesting election when added to the additional baggage that Mr.Cuzner is already carrying to this point in the election.The N.D.P.could pull off an upset on election night.
06 12 05 M. Lunn
This will stay Liberal. Roger Cuzner won by one of the largest margins in Nova Scotia, so there is no way with the results being not much different than last time that he will lose his seat. This went NDP in 1997 to protest the EI cuts, but the NDP is lot weaker in Atlantic Canada than in 1997 as well as the riding now includes areas from the mainland, so I doubt the NDP would have taken this in 1997 had the current boundaries been used.
05 12 05 Mad Caper
Based on the fact that liberal incumbent Roger Cuzner has the devco pension issue,the crab fishery issue,the E.C.B.C. monies that have been withdrawn from the Port Hawkesbury area,the adscam issue in Quebec and the David Dingwall expense issue to answer for in this riding.I would have to say that this election is far from a cake walk like the liberals in this riding would like people to believe.With a strong candidate in this riding the NDP could easily win this seat back from the liberals.With all of this baggage to carry Cuzner is without a doubt in trouble.This seat is surely up for grabs.
28 07 05 RJW
A part of this riding is adjacent to mine, it's very, very safe Liberal. Perhaps not so much socially, but economically. It also doesn't hurt that Cuzner has a pretty high profile in the area. The 1997 result in Bras d'Or-Cape Breton (slightly geographically different from CB-Canso), when Liberal bigshot David Dingwall was defeated by invisible NDP medical receptionist Michelle Dockrill, was a total anomaly driven by unique factors (the Liberals lost every seat in NS due to EI and other reforms; also Dingwall is kinda evil).
16 05 05 CGH
Easy one here. This one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. Cuznor's got it, Barney the dinosaur could take this one if he wanted.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Cuzner is a pretty popular guy here who really surprised alot of people, including many on this board with his '04 numbers. Couple that with his opposition to SSM and you have a Lib slam dunk!
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
This riding is the safest Liberal riding in the Maritimes. It's one of those left-wing rural areas in atlantic canada that likes thier welfare and likes the devils they know. It's ridings like this that's frustrated the NDP for decades, the people are left-wing enough, but dont have the courage to vote for someone untested. Liberal win, easy.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Cape Breton is generally a liberal stronghold. The NDP is not particularly strong in rural areas, while the Conservatives free market policies won't go over well in an area with high unemployment and poverty. Even if the liberals lose seats in Atlantic Canada to the NDP and Conservatives, this won't be one of them.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Cuzner is a popular, albeit blah, MP. Cape Breton loves its Liberals, though, so even if the Liberals are self-destructing elsewhere, Cape Breton-Canso should stay Liberal. I'm going to call this one for the Liberal Party by a good 3000 votes.

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