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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

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Authorized by the Official Agent for the Toronto Danforth Federal NDP
31/03/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
Layton will win and it won't even be close. This is the perfect riding for him to run in. It is precisely the area he has reprtesented on city council, he has run there before and on top of that Dennis Mills is hated by half of the card carrying Liberals in the riding because of his retrograde views on gay rights and abortion. There have already been numerous articles about "Liberals for Layton". Imagine Mills being the MP for Riverdale - the most secular, non-religious, socially liberal place in Canada - and sending out a Christmas card showing himself on his knees in front of the Pope (yuck!). That alone probably lost him thousands of votes. On top of that his hyped waterfront announcement was a total fiasco when he got shouted down by protesters that he lied to before Christmas when he promised to turn a derelict building into social housing (still looks derelict to me).
31/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I have yet to see a single reason this riding should be predicted to be anyhting but the NDP.
here are the reasons why.
First of all, to respond to D.Ross, who says Layton will have a "run for his money"
Next, EP says that media hype and over-zealous NDP supporters dont win an election. He makes the argument that mills is long-serving, and has a lot of financial support. EP also says the Grits will target the riding.
Grit says both parties have a large base, but that Mills has been more accessible then Layton.
Tim says while the NDP will do better, that they will not win. He makes the argument that Layon has never campaigned federally, and his being leader will be a drawback (as any mistakes he makes will be in the news as well)
There is a common theme in everyone who predicts against Layton. First, that Mills is popular, and I agree, Mills is very popular. Dennis Mills is perhaps one of the most popular MP's. One thing they forget is that Layton is also popular here, he was a city councellor too, and in the past year, has been getting more attention. Mills is argubally more famous for being Layton's opponent, then anything else.
Second, the money factor. The Liberals have more power/money then the NDP. The Liberals will target the riding, but it's a matter of resoruces. Paul Martin has other contenders to elect, and cannot stop the machine to get Mills in, Layton, however, can (and probably will) stop the machine to make sure he gets a seat. While the Liberals have more money overall, the NDP has more to spend in this riding.
There is an argument that Layton is un-experinced campaigning federally, yet what we are forgetting is that Paul Martin has also not campaigned as the leader of a party. I was told when I was running that I could not win my riding, only the Leader can, and in today's politics, that's true. It does not matter how hard Mills fights, this fight will be one between Martin and Layton, and Layton has the homefield advantage.
It was said the Media cannot win an election, I would argue. The 1993 election is a prefect example of how negative media attention to one party can decemate it. If the Media decides to support the NDP, the NDP will win this seat, and I think the Media is being rather friendly.
There is one, extremly important peice of information. Layton passed up the oppertunity to run for by-election in the riding of Perth-Middlesex, to "remain loyal to his electorate in Toronto Danforth". Layton is just as popular here as Mills is. Mills is the incumbant, but Layton is a party leader. At minimum they are equals. The fact that Layton will get more coverage should push that over the edge. That is ignoring many other reasons why Layton should win.
This riding will go NDP. I still, have yet to see a single reason this riding should still be too close to call, it should be NDP.
30/03/04 Andrew Cox
Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
NDP pick-up. Reasons: 1) Party leader's usually win. Layton will get huge TV exposure during the campaign and that is incredibly difficult to compete against by knocking on doors, especially in a big city seat. 2) That said, Mills is probably the toughest Liberal incumbent to take on in the City of Toronto. He's got a huge volunteer base, access to funds, the success of SARStock and deep roots in the riding. He beat Layton handily in 1997. The PMO is clearly dumping serious support into the riding. 3) But those advantages will be cancelled out by the NDP central party pouring everything they have into TD. Just like in 1999, when Hampton's seat was in trouble, the NDP will empty party headquarters in the last week to win the leader's seat. Field workers and volunteers will be moved from other ridings to here. The Liberals have to fight and win four-score races in Ontario, but the NDP will pour everything they have into here. 4) And that just shows how ego-centric! Jack Layton can be. He could have run in Beaches-East York and won easily against a wounded Maria Minna and a more NDP-friendly electorate. But instead, he's going to have to take on Mills in a macho grudge match. Volunteers and resources that could have gone to Davenport, Parkdale-High Park or Trinity-Spadina will be wasted in a very tough fight. Layton will win in the seat of his choice, but cost his party critical resources in key seats that could limit the NDP breakthrough in Toronto. 5) Just to add some more data to my statement above... a) In 1999, the NDP feared Hampton losing his seat and sent everything they had to Kenora. Close seats, like Tony Silipo's, Len Wood's and Marion Boyd's were all lost for a lack of resources. I fear you will see the exact same scenario in the federal campaign: resources placed to shore up the leader, cost resources elsewhere and lead to losses in tight races. b) Joe Clark had no coattails in Alberta in 2000, despite winning his seat. A! gain, resources were drawn from neighbouring seats, so Joe could stubbornly run in Alberta. c) Bob Rae managed to hold his seat in York South in 1995, but the result was the loss of neighbouring NDP seats like Oakwood, High Park-Swansea, Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Etobicoke-Rexdale. The trend seems to be: leaders who struggle to win their own seats usually win, but at the cost of other seats their party should have taken.
27/03/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be one of the roughest & toughest battles in the GTA, but I am quite sure Jack Layton will come out on top. Like the previous posters said, party leaders rarely ever lose. The NDP cannot afford to not win this seat, so they are going to be pumping all of their GTA volunteers, money and resources into Toronto-Danforth. Plus, Dennis has been getting some bad publicity for his stand on the same-sex marriage issue, and for not yet keeping his promise to turn that abandoned building at Broadview & Gerrard into afforadable housing. Last I saw, the building looks exactly the same as it was 4 months ago when Dennis put his career on the line, saying he would resign if he didn't turn the building into affordable housing in a month period. Like I said above, this is going to be a hard-fought battle, but I think Jack will win it, but maybe by only a few thousand votes. Also, watch out for the neighbouring riding of Beaches-East York, where NDP's Peter Tabu! ns is going against incumbent Liberal Maria Minna - this might even be a closer race than Toronto-Danforth, where either candidates could win/lose by a few hundred votes or less.
24/03/04 david tudor
i was under the impression that internal liberal polling had dr layton ahead 20 points and even taking into account as popular mills is considered to be, i am not surprised with this. with the ndp taking everything from the mayors office to having a mmp in the area, as well as the largest ndp riding association in the country (sure mills has a war chest left over from his lets run for mayor days but it will do him little good) as well if alexa can take halifax (and remember she took several ndpers with her coat tails) with a fraction of the strength and organization layton has, i find little reason to not expect the same to happen here. the liberals are not the invincible powerhouse they were pre-sponsorship and im sure the anti-liberal red tories will come this way post harper (as negligable a force they are in this area). and mills has made problems for himself with the gay community. layton will get a victory and it will be clear cut.
24/03/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
Yes, we will see the NDP do better this election and yes we will see Jack Layton's face every night on T.V. However, it still doesn't mean he will win. Dennis Mills biggest worry should be how many votes he will lose to the Conservatives, not the NDP. Jack Layton has never endured a federal campaign before. He will be under the microscope. Every outrageous thing he has ever said or done will be in the papers during the campaign. He can get away with saying crazy things running for Toronto city council because the strong local NDP organization is there to bail him out on election day where there is low voter turnout. Jack is a ticking time bomb. The question is will he explode before or after election day? You can be sure the national media will be there to report it when it happens.
24/03/04 mini phreek
Email: [hidden]
Why is this still too close, honestly lets forget for a moment that the party leader is running here, and give mills the benifit of the doubt. The NDP polled well here last election when NDP soport was half what it is now, facter in the fact that Marilyn Churley won this riding in october by more then 6000 votes, add the news paper poll mentioned earlyer, plus the ad scandle that hurts all liberals, and you have a sure fire NDP vitory, regardless if it's Jack riding or not.
24/03/04 Todd S.
Email: [hidden]
Same phenom here as in Ottawa Centre, where Ed Broadbent will beat Richard Mahoney. Jack Layton will cream Dennis Mills, despite the fact that Mills is competent, hardworking and has done a lot for the riding and the city of Toronto. Voters naturally defer to party leaders (eg. Joe Clark in Calgary Centre in 2000; John Turner in Vancouver Quadra in 1984). Look for Layton to get about 50% and send Mills packing.
24/03/04 Grit
Email: [hidden]
As strong as the N.D.P. base is in the riding, the Liberal foundation will be a force to contend with. Just take a look at the results of the last few elections.
Mills is a constituency M.P. who has been visible and accessible over the years. Which is more than we can say for Mr. Layton. I don't even remember him having a constituency office in his time as city councilor. If that is any indication of how he plans on representing the riding federally, well, the rest goes unsaid.

This one goes to Mills.
23/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
Media hype (and over enthusiastic and often wishful thinking NDP supporters) does not win you an election. While I would agree that Jack with his high profile will make this one of the few "potential NDP" ridings in Toronto, nothing is for sure. Mills is a long serving MP with a lot of financial support. The central Liberal machine will also devote a good chunk of resources to this riding. If I am running Jack's campaign I wouldn't be so complacent.
23/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
P. Kelly is right what are you witing for? Does Miller have to concede for this to get marked NDP? Layton has more than doubled the NDP support nationally and is shown to be winning in published polls for the riding. This is not even remotely too close to call it's a sure thing.
19/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
Jack will win this seat. The margin will be closer than we all think, but he'll win because he's a party leader and his popularity seems to be rising in urban areas like Toronto. This is unfortunate for Mills, a solid MP who could arguably do more for the area than Layton ever could on the Opposition benches, but that's how it goes.
19/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
I wish I could provide the link, but I have read of a poll of this riding and it showed Layton with a 56-58% support level - compared to a mid 20's for Mills. This seat should be immediately be taken out of the 'too close to call' column and marked clearly "NDP".
19/03/04 Gerry
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Layton. Leaders only lose their seats if the party's fortunes are gong downhill. The NDP's fortunes are going up. Moreover, I know many Liberals angered about Mills' opposition to same-sex marriage who plan to vote for Layton. This riding has one of the highest percentage of homosexuals in the country.
17/03/04 The Masked Tory
Jack should win this handily. Mills is a decent MP, but up against the odds this time.
17/03/04 Marto
Email: [hidden]
I almost feel sorry for Mills. Layton is a lock here - he has done a fantastic job of getting his message and face in the media - even though he doesn't have a seat in the House.
Layton has done more to create excitement around the NDP than anyone in recent history. Watch out for Jack to not only take this riding - but to upset the Liberals in many urban Ontario riding.
17/03/04 Craig
Since Jack Layton became leader of the NDP, he has really strengthened the urban vote, and that has put Dennis Mills on the edge. A weakened Liberal base will be the final stone that will throw this riding orange. Predicted results: NDP 45%, Liberal 36%, Conservative 15%, others 4%.
16/03/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
Since becoming leader, Jack Layton has done an excellent job revitalizing and restoring some credibility to the NDP. I predict that the people of Toronto-Danforth will reward him for this, but he won’t win by a landslide, especially if Dennis Mills opts to run again. Mills faired considerably well in the 2000 general election, capturing approximately twice as many votes as the NDP candidate, and would definitely give Layton a run for his money this time around.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This will be a close race, but Layton will edge out Mills. Some people think mills' recent activities will help him, but his idea to move the HQ of the UN to the riding has made the NDP spin it as Mills wanting to declare Toronto Danforth as the capital of the world. I think his desperation is showing.
16/03/04 V.D.
Email: Bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I think Jack will win this one, leaders somehow find a way to win their seats, look at Alexa in Halifax and Joe Clark in Calgary Centre.
16/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
With the NDP machine steamrolling over its opponents in Toronto's recent municipal elections, a population out of touch with Mills' relative social conservatism, an NDP MPP, and the most popular NDP leader since Ed Broadbent running in this riding, Jack Layton will win by 5 - 10%. Only the recent Rolling Stones concert is preventing the Liberals from losing by an embarrassing margin.
15/03/04 RWA
Prior to the sponsorship scandal, I would put this in the too close to call column, but since the scandal the Liberals are going downhill and a recent poll gave Layton a comfortable lead in this riding. Milss' trouble with poverty activists won't help.
15/03/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Interesting race to watch here, but I think Jack Layton will edge out Dennis Mills -- although perhaps not by an astonishing margin. Layton NEEDS to win this seat, and I think that this riding's NDP roots both municipally, provincially and (formerly) federally will provide Layton with a win.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
How could Layton not win this seat? It had one of the best returns in 2000 when the NDP itself faired quite dismally, Mills is suffering at the hands of anti-poverty activists, and polls show Layton will beat Mills handily. Layton has already had a number of canvassing blitzes, and that's months before the election's even called. No chance of this riding going to anyone but Layton.
15/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Dennis Mills is scared. He is furiously protesting a June election because he knows he going to lose. Jack has quickly become popular, and is running well ahead of Mills in the riding. Layton will win his seat easily, and Mills will not be missed on Parliament hill.
12/03/04 Dr Jim Benevolent
NDP leader Jack Layton has quickly proved popular with voters, while the ruling Liberals are floundering amid the current corruption scandals & in-fighting. Polls show Layton has a strong lead in Toronto-Danforth - with his personal popularity & the Liberals' present disarray he should win easily come polling day.
11/03/04 JW
Mills has admitted he's tired, and openly mused about retiring after having been shut out of cabinet by yet another Prime Minister. He has nothing left to give, and with the Toronto NDP riding high from David Miller's mayoralty win and the Layton buzz, Mills will be taking that retirement after all. The NDP's organization here is superb at the worst of times, and this is far from that for the party. Layton will take it walking away.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Leaders always win their seats (the only one to not do so in 1993, 1997, and 2000 was Kim Campbell). Jack Layton will nicely sweep Dennis Mills aside. This riding has about 2000 card-carrying New Democrats, and the NDP will be making the neccessary arrangements to ensure that Jack wins this seat. Layton victory with at least 50% of the vote.

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