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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:29 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
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2:29 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Larry Bagnell
Pam Boyde
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Geoffrey Capp
Parti Marijuana Party:
Sean Davey
James Hartle
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Philippe LeBlond

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Yukon (100.0%)
Hon. Larry Bagnell

2000 Result/Résultats:
4,146 32.89%
4,046 32.10%
3,408 27.04%
954 7.57%
50 0.40%

(89/89 polls, 20853/20853 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 LLJ
Email: [hidden]
A local poll was just completed by Datapath, a local polling company. The numbers showed over 40% for Bagnell, compared with 27% for NDP and 24% for Conservatives. Greens got 4%. The poll has a huge margin of error, but that's a heck of a lead to ignore when predicting ridings. This one's going red.
23/06/04 Kyle Simunovic
See the 900 votes for the PC's last election that goes to the NDP and the liberals are going to loose the rest! The liberal support is only going to bleed to the NDP!
Email: [hidden]
A poll conducted this past weekend indicates that Bagnell has 43% of the vote followed by Boyde at 27% and Hartle at 24%. Sixty percent of Bagnell`s supporters indicated they were voting for the individual candidate rather than the party compared to 13% and 7% for Boyde and Hartle respectively. The poll, however, had a small sample size, a larger margin of error (+/- 8%), and reported that 31% of the electorate remains undecided. Nonetheless, I believe the poll is an indicator of strong support for Bagnell, who I expect will be returning to Ottawa with over 40% of the note.
21/06/04 JI
Email: jinnes@liberal.ca
The Tories could barely find a candidate worth running, and the NDP really needed them too if they had any chance of challengeing the Liberals. On top of this - Larry Bagnell has a personal popularity which makes his victory certain - even the other parties local campaigns know this - this one's been decided for weeks already.
21/06/04 T.C.
Email: [hidden]
Why will it go to Bagnell? Because everyone will vote for him, thats why. Why? Who knows... most seem to think its a neatly sewn up two way race though, w/ Boyde taking a distant second. again.
20/06/04 SH
Email: [hidden]
Larry Bagnell has done a superb job in keeping his constituents satisfied and with a far weaker Conservative candidate running in this election, it seems highly unlikely that Pam Boyde (NDP), his closest challenger, will catch him.
20/06/04 JW
Email: [hidden]
I would agree with GIJ that the Liberal, Larry Bagnell will take this riding. I don't think it will be quite the walk he does as core NDP support is fairly deep in the Yukon,and Pam Boyde has some profile among that crowd. She is well liked but Larry Bagnell is better known and is also well liked. He will run ahead of the Liberal Party and Mr Martin as many folks here are upset at the scandal(s).
15/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Can you find 100 disillusioned voters in the Yukon? I'd say so. This ought to go NDP, but Harper in a wave could surprise....always close, but what is the harm in offering a prediction?
15/06/04 TAN
Email: [hidden]
Bagnell is a legend amongst the Parliament hiller staffer crowd as the only man driven into the arms of public service by the promise of little plates of free egg salad sandwiches with the crusts cut off. Unless we see a dipper resurgence up north that might split the vote in a creative-enough manner to put the Hon. Larry in danger, count on Yukoners doing what they generally do and returning the incumbent.
03/06/04 GJJ
Email: [hidden]
Given that the Conservatives finally selected James Hartle as their candidate last weekend, I think it is time to nudge thise riding from "too close to call" to a Liberal win. After securing the nomination on the strength of an "anybody but Don McKenzie" vote, Hartle gave a dull, meandering speech bashing Larry Bagnell ... in front of 15 people. This speaks volumes about why the Conservatives will not be factor in this race. Their candidate is a political neophyte without profile because no credible person wants to run as Larry will be tough to beat. I expect, and as appears to be reflected in some of the recent submissions, that a large segment of the Reform/Alliance/Conservative vote will go to Bagnell.
Yes, our MP is a bumbler and looks like he sleeps in his clothes. Yes, he appears to be perpetually lost and should probably stop loading up Tupperware containers with free food at public gatherings. But dammit, Larry's our bumbler and to his credit, he has worked the riding very effectively. I would be surprised if Bagnell did not win with over 40% of the vote.
01/06/04 PJ
Email: [hidden]
This isn't even a contest! With the Yukon Party (read Conservative)Territorial government doing everything but officially endorsing Bagnell, Larry will pick up alot of right wing support as well as a not inconsiderable amount of the left wing support. Pam Boyde seems well spoken and a nice enough person, but it won't be near enough to compensate for Bagnell's impressive work rate over the last 3 and 1/2 years. With the recent nomination of James Hartle for the Conservatives, I understand that Tories are starting to call Bagnell's headquarters looking for lawn signs! Hartle is from a small town called Watson Lake. Apparently folks there are lining up behind Bagnell in spite (because?) of this. As Tiger Williams would say, "This one's done like dinner!"
27/05/04 LP
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure where most of these comments are coming from, the current MP, Larry Bagnell, has been endorsed by the current conservative Yukon Part government, he is very popular in the communities and despite the national trends, is seen as a hard working, slighlty bumbling but very effective MP.
Without a real Conservative opposition, it will be nearly impossible to beat him. Pam Boyde is a good candidate. But her profile is very low and without a Conservative candidate, those voters will go to the middle, not the left.
As for the two candidates vying for the Conservative nomination, neither is viable. Even the Conservatives admit that.
10/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I am going to put this riding in the TCTC (Too Close Too Call) column for good.
It's really hard, if not impossible for any of us here down south, as it were, to know the candidates. While the Liberals are strong in the 2 other northern ridings, in the Yukon, the parties are evenly matched. This will come down to a battle between personalities, and I honestly cannot tell which one will come out on top.
Party lines mean nothing here, this is a battle between Larry Bagnell, Pam Boyde, and whoever the CPC nominates.
19/04/04 GJJ
Email: [hidden]
Given the people that have announced or plan to contest the Conservative nomination, this riding could be moved from the "too close to call" column to a Liberal win within the next few weeks. A truck driver from Watson Lake (James Hartle) with no profile in or outside his community or any political experience is seeking the nomination while Don McKenzie, a jail guard from Whitehorse plans to announce in the next couple of weeks. In addition to some nasty personal details, the latter is a complete wingnut who has been involved with all the three parties at some point over the last eight years. McKenzie would make a complete fool of himself and the party during the election, especially during any candidate forums. Other potential candidates have melted away partly because Bagnell will be tough to beat.
Hartle is a better choice for the party but will not be a serious candidate. His lack of profile is a real impediment, especially because he is from a small community. The Yukon has not elected an MP that resided outside of Whitehorse in over 60 years. Given these circumstances, I continue to believe that the bulk of right wing vote will stick and/or shift with Bagnell.
Incidentally, I'm not sure on what Jesse is basing his assessment that the NDP has a well known candidate. Pam Boyde is a good person but her profile is primarily limited to segments of the wilderness tourism industry and the party membership. Boyde was the executive assistant to the former Premier but this does not necessarily mean she is well known throughout the territory. In contrast, Bagnell was the long-term Executive Director of the Association of Yukon Communities before entering politics, and has built good contacts in almost every town.
11/04/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
The Yukon represents a vast area encompassing many varied constituencies, and generally speaking, unlike the rest of Canada, the popularity of the candidate (or incumbent) is of greater importance than party affiliation.
To bear this out, the Yukon voted differently compared to the political trends of its southern neighbour, BC, during the 1993, 1997, and 2000 elections.
Eric Nielsen (PC) held this seat for 30 years from 1957 to 1987 when Audrey McLaughlin (NDP) won the subsequent by-election and also held the riding in the 1988 and 1993 general elections.
During 1997, the subsequent NDP candidate retained the riding in a relatively close three-way race while the fourth place candidate (PC) obtaining about 14% of the vote.
In 2000, with the added attribute of incumbency, Louise Hardy (NDP) narrowly lost the seat to Larry Bagnall (Liberal) in another relatively close three-way race.
If the incumbent Larry Bagnall is respected in the Yukon and has gained a degree of popularity then he will probably hold the seat.
Interestingly enough, the 2000 submissions contained the results of an election poll which predicted the outcome of the eventual election result(Liberal, NDP, and CA).
I hope another one of these polls will be published during the forthcoming election which will assist in determining the outcome of this riding.
10/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Even though I live in Ontario, this riding seems to be more like British Columbia where the Conservatives and NDP are the top choices between people. In that case, I wouldn't be surprised if not only the Liberal incumbent loses here, but comes in 3rd place. This was a vote-splitting riding and perhaps Stephen Harper being from Western Canada may appeal to people here. The NDP support has doubled and Liberal support is the lowest it has been before Chretien. It won't be a question of whether the Liberal loses his seat but who will replace him.
09/04/04 Jesse Hoffman
I can't see the Liberals hanging on here, and could possibly finish third behind the CPC and NDP. The NDP has already a strong well known candidate in Pam Boyde, and the Conservatives have still not found anyone. I think on the basis of candidate strenght, and the fact that since the last election, the NDP are the only party that has gone up considerably in the polls, this will be an NDP pickup. PREDICTION - NDP - 40%, Liberal - 30% CPC - 28% Other - 2%
Email: [hidden]
Pam Boyde was selected as the NDP candidate for the Yukon over the weekend and was the executive assistant to Government Leader Piers McDonald between 1996-2000. I understand the Conservatives are still having considerable difficulty finding a candidate despite public pronouncements to the contrary.
06/04/04 Sandra
Email: [hidden]

Pam Boyd is nominated for NDP in Yukon. She has a good chance to be victorious in the upcoming fight. NDP will for sure do everything to reclaim the seat, and the Liberal MP is not so popular in Yukon.
05/04/04 John H.
Email: Pettawaj@yahoo.ca
Let's face it. The Liberals aren't going to do better this election. Many Liberal voters here were more to the left wing. The joint conservative vote in 2000 here was 35%, enough for a small victory. I believe the Conservatives will win here with about 38%. I'll give the NDP 35% and Liberal 27%.
20/03/04 polski_69
Email: [hidden]
I think if the new conservative party can front a solid candidate, vote splitting alone would give them a nice edge over the grits and the NDP. Perhaps, if the candidate is strong enough, a decent margin would accumlate.
20/03/04 GJJ
Email: [hidden]
With all due respect to other submissions, Larry Bagnell will easily be re-elected in the Yukon despite the many difficulties faced by the Yukon and federal Liberal parties. Larry is highly visible in his constituency, works the riding hard, and is perceived to be a good advocate on all the issues that Yukoners deem important. All these qualities still account for alot in this small riding, and will increase Larry's vote percentage to well over 40% and possibly as high as 50%.
The NDP is experiencing its own challenges and none of the three people contesting the nomination has any wide appeal. Anyone who believes the federal election in the Yukon will be a repeat of the 2000 campaign is not paying attention to the riding dynamics and probably never lived in the territory.
The Conservatives are having a heck of time finding a candidate, which also bodes well for Larry as it will likely result in the Tories dragging out an old boy from retirement to show the party flag. This either means a low profile or very right-wing candidate that will push more progressive conservatives to vote Liberal. Incidentally, Jim Kenyon is not running as he is the Minister of Environment in the Yukon Party territorial government.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is one riding that is way up in the air. A true three way race. A small population means fewer people need to change their mind to effect the outcome of this vote. Look for all parties, especially the NDP to campain hard here.
01/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I expect this to be a close three way race, pretty well the only one in the country. If the tories convince Kenyon to run again, they may be able to clinch this.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
The NDP only lost by 70 or so votes here in 2000, and the drop in Liberal fortunes and the rise NDP popularity will place this seat back in the New Democrats' hands.

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