Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:54 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:45 AM 5/15/2004

Constituency Profile
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Brunie Brunie
Jean Crowder
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Harold Henn
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Lloyd Macilquham
Dave Quist
Canadian Action canadienne:
Jeffrey Warr

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Nanaimo-Cowichan (100.0%)
Reed Elley

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,305 46.57%
10,708 21.40%
8,521 17.03%
3,602 7.20%
3,912 7.82%

(226/226 polls, 78523/78523 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Let's say the word the NDP choir never likes to hear. BINGOGATE! Nanaimo said never again, and never isn't over yet. Quist has a good campaign and inherited solid organization. He's going to win.
24/06/04 RRB
Email: [hidden]
the latest NDP internal poll which may be basis puts the Conservatives ahead by 5 full points.
23/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
It is interesting that this riding has been an NDP prediction for a while now, because recent NDP internal polling shows that Jean Crowder of the NDP is in a tight fight, and a few points behind the Conservative, so right now it looks to close to call. Perhaps Crowder will put it out on June 28 to win as this site predicts, but right now it is not guaranteed.
David Quist (Con) 37.4%
Jean Crowder (NDP) 33.8%
Lloyd McLlquham (Lib) 16.8%
Harold Henn (GN) 10.1%
21/06/04 Distant Observer
Email: [hidden]
The NDP just issued release on internal polling for four BC ridings, including this one. While they all show the Liberal support collapsing, this riding is presently very tight betwen the Conservatives and the NDP. I would put this one back into the too close to call camp.
Email: [hidden]
Looks to be moving away from a close race. NDP roots here are recovering - but people want a voice in Gov't. Conservative is the best chance for that. Regrettable. (I'm NDP)
02/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
You're dreaming Peter. Quist is well organized and the trend is clearly Conservative. You can feel it and Quist is reporting a terrific response at the doors.
28/05/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
A previous poster asks how the NDP can bridge a large electoral gap from the 2000 election to now...
Simple: THIS IS NOT 2000. Just about every poll is showing a tight three way split of the entire BC vote. Conservative support is not concentrated on Vancouver Island.
Secondly, the Alliance/PC vote was almost 57% in BC in 2000. If we are to believe the polls in recent times, this shows a whopping 27-30 point drop for the conservative vote. Since they haven'y gone over to the liberal side, they must have wandered to the NDP.
Conservative support is concentrated where conservative thinking is popular..such as the Okanagan, North Shore of the lower mainland, the Fraser Valley, and the far north.
To the conservative supporters out there, where do you think the NDP is getting its support from? They only had 11% in BC in 2000 and have managed to gain almost 20 points. Liberal support has gone nowhere.
25/05/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Wow! The Island sure has a lot of NDP cheerleaders who are whistling past the graveyard. Quist is the winner here. Does any realist think that Jean is going to close an 18,000 vote gap from 2000. Tell me how!
19/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're not confortable with some poster's gradious predictions of sweeping NDP wins all over BC. True the NDP are ahead in BC but the election hasn't be called yet and past elections often show the NDP support will sink as the election draws near. However they are going strong in BC and their support is concentrated. Vancouver Island is one of those NDP hot spots and the lack of a Conservative incumbent will help them win this riding. they may or may not sweep the island but they will definitely win Nanaimo-Cowichan.
13/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Traditionally the strongest NDP seat on the Island... both federally and provincially, it's now looking very unlikely that the CPC will be able to hold on as the NDP should be able to win back most the traditional support that it lost in 1993... Nanaimo isn't right wing, the Cowichan Lake area isn't right wing... Ladysmith isn't right wing...
The formidable local NDP machine seems to be functioning at full effect again as well... the way things are looking at the moment the Dippers could put up a paper candidate (like the Liberals have) and win by sheer machine politics.
The fact that they've chosen a candidate with strong ties to the area seems to lock the seat up for now...
11/05/04 TLM
Email: [hidden]
With the NDP numbers in BC, and the likelihood of how those votes will be distributed, The NDP stands a fair chance of sweeping Vancouver Island, a good chance of taking at least 4 out of 6 seats, and an excellent chance of taking 3 out of 6. The 2 Nanaimo seats are the best bets and of the 2, Nanaimo-Cowichan is a lock.
22/04/04 The insider
Email: [hidden]
I'm giving this one to the NDP, they have the momentum right now. The Conservatives are in a pretty precarious position and the NDP has been running a pretty bullish campaign. A couple weeks back, the NDP threw a pancake breakfast expecting anywhere between 150 and 200 people to show up, but the event was overrun by about 350 people coming to see Federal Leader Jack Layton. Despite being a stronghold, that kind of buzz hasn't been around since TC Douglas held the riding many years ago.
22/04/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
There is no reason for this seat to be too-close-to-call. Poll after poll has indicated that the NDP within inches of taking the lead for federal support in BC, but now the BC NDP are pulling ahead of the hated Gordon Campbell Liberals too.
If the Conservatives manage to hold on to 30%, their support level is concentrated elsewhere, such as the north, and fraser valley (BC's bible belt). The NDP also has approximately 30%, and their support is almost entirely concentrated on Vancouver Island and the East side of Vancouver.
I appeal to the common sense of the webmaster and re-designate Nanaimo-Cowichan to an NDP gain.
19/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The Conservative party will take this seat. Even if Stephen Harper is not so popular in this riding. I don't see the NDP going from 17% in the redistrubuted numbers, to a percentage which would give them this seat.
07/04/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals had 19 people show up at their "nomination" meeting that acclaimed their candidate. In other words, they have already conceded that they have no chance in Nanaimo-Cowichan.
That said, the 2000 voting trends are not applicable anymore...the reasons that people voted the way they did four years ago, are not valid today. That is why you see that the NDP is actually leading on Vancouver Island, and you can be well assured that this lead is concentrated in the south island, namely, Nanaimo-Cowichan.
05/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Nanaimo-Cowichan contains the southern part of Nanaimo and the Cowichan Valley Regional District, both of which are traditional strongholds of the NDP (Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands was Tommy Douglas' seat from 1969 to 1979) and boasts a well oiled NDP machine (even in the BC NDP disaster/wipe out of 2001 the NDP polled about 10% higher than the BC average in the provincial ridings of Cowichan-Ladysmith and Nanaimo (even with Bingogate), and in the 2000 federal election a weak candidate managed to poll over 17% of the vote).
The demographics of the riding favour the NDP as the average income is below the BC average ($25,959 in Nanaimo-Cowichan, $29,769 and average household income is just under $10,000 less than the BC average), unemployment is 11.6% (BC average: 8.5%, Canada average: 7.4%), there is also a lot of "disguised unemployment" in the riding.
The NDP have a strong candidate in Jean Crowder, and the CA/CPC incumbent is retiring which leaves the riding wide open for an NDP pickup (in addition to the above infomation, polls on the Island indicate that it's the strongest area for the NDP in the entire province).
The CPC have an outside chance of hanging on if the NDP implode again, if not they probably won't want to use their resources in an open seat when there are vunerable CPC MP's on the rest of the Island.
And as for the Liberals... thanks to Gordon Campbell they will be lucky to save their deposit.
02/04/04 Mike P.
Email: [hidden]
This riding should go NDP. There is a history of CCF and NDP MP's for this riding, and the unpopularity of the provincial BCLiberal government will taint the Conservatives and Liberals.
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP and the Liberals are going to be fighting eachother here. I think the Conservatives will be able to come up the middle. This is a traditional Conservative riding, with some history of voting NDP. The Conservatives should have no problem winning here.
25/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
The NDP's chances of winning back this riding at this time is about as strong as their ability to run a bingo parlour.
The riding population has changed, the loggers are gone and frankly the NDP has done a shit job of appealling to blue collar workers since the 1980s, the NDP is not the party it was during the era of the Bingo Hall empire of Nanaimo
23/03/04 Cose to Incumbent
Email: Kia_horse@hotmail.com
Dave Quist is as close to an Incumbent as u can get with out haveing one. He has been working for this ride for more than 6 years. He has been doing the job on the hill already knows who is who. Need no time to learn the ropes.
i think federal it will be the conservative but provincal i see the NDP haveing a chance do keep in mind the stats the ndp use for their mebership info is combined povincal and federal. so making it hard to tell
23/03/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
Nanaimo, especially the southern part of the city, is home to a strong NDP voting contingent and party machine. NDP candidate Jean Crowder has been in place since last year and is well organized. The riding's demographics are more favourable to the NDP (younger population; slightly lower income) than Nanaimo-Alberni. With no Conservative incumbent, Nanaimo-Cowichan is, bar none, the NDP's best prospect to increase its BC seat count. If they can't win this one, they might as well fold the tent.
17/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
"Quist is [the MP's] right hand man. Qust has full suport of the the youth groups in our riding."
I read that and think this guy must be a political hack who has the backing of the Alliance youth.... sorry this doesn't cut it. Jean Crowder is an excellent candidate.. The NDP has consistantly polled well on the island for some time now and this is their best seat.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
I think that it may be too early to call this riding and, for that matter, most Vancouver Island ridings. Since the 1960's (and earlier) the CCF/NDP has been successful federally within the various political map re-drawings of this general area. During the 1993, 1997, and 2000 federal elections the Reform/ CA has been the successful recipient of large majorities. Some of the underlying factors were unpopular NDP provincial governments and lacklustre federal NDP leaders and, as such, the so-called protest vote drifted over to Reform/CA. Vancouver Island has always been a strong base of B.C. NDP support and they will likely increase their vote in the next election. One of the questions is by how much? Another is whether the so-called protest vote will feel uncomfortable with the CPC and drift back to the NDP from the former CA. Additionally, will the former PC vote split Liberal/CPC? In my opinion, in order to determine some of these matters, we would need the results of various polls conducted during the election period with regional breakdowns, and, based upon those trends, a clearer picture will be established to form a better opinion.
17/03/04 Full
Email: Jesse_Hoffman100@hotmail.com
This riding will be coming back to the NDP this election. Even neo-con John Ibbitson from the Globe and Mail is predicting Jean Crowder to win this for the New Democrats. Stephen Harper's apparent unpopularity in BC, and the NDP rising to the 25-30% range, will mean this will be one of the many BC losses for the CPC.
17/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Putting this riding in the conservative column is completely wrong. The conservatives are in third place in BC, behind the NDP. The NDP's support is concentrated on Vancouver Island, and parts of greater Vancouver. On election day, NDP candidate Jean Crowder will defeat the conservatives and become the MP for Nanaimo Cowichan
16/03/04 Mike D
Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
NDP's number one target in BC, I hear. Jean Crowder will take this from the Conservatives. Note: no incumbent.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
This was the seat of Tommy Douglas. NDP to take this seat. This is not a real ‘conservative’ area and as such, will return to its traditional voting trends and elect an NDP MP by a comfortable margin. This area is where the strong NDP support is concentrated. Look for an unemployed conservative MP.
16/03/04 melissa Hailey
Email: [hidden]
Dave Quist has a large suporter base Reed Elley is a very popular man can't go shoping with out being reconized and Quist is his right hand man. Qust has full suport of the the youth groups in our riding. NDP is the only threat but is a no name. Or at lest it has not been in the paper for a while. I have met Both quist and Elley and find them both very involved in the grass roots prosses.

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