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Edmonton-Spruce Grove
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:03 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:52 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Rona Ambrose
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Neil Mather
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jerry Paschen
Hayley Phillips

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Edmonton Southwest (33.8%)
James Rajotte
Edmonton West (26.3%)
Hon. Anne McLellan
St. Albert (39.9%)
John Williams
Yellowhead (0.0%)
Rob Merrifield

2000 Result/Résultats:
26,461 55.84%
13,762 29.04%
4,577 9.66%
2,298 4.85%
289 0.61%

Edmonton Southwest
(71/212 polls, 26070/83691 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Edmonton West
(56/240 polls, 20342/88261 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. Albert
(78/210 polls, 30790/83545 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(2/219 polls, 9/67312 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 ConsVoter
Email: [hidden]
I sure hope it doesn't come down to a dinghy... I like to give people more credit, and the job is MP, not Students Union President. With respect, anyone who was at the Horizon Forum should have seen and will pass on (quietly, and regardless of partisanship) that Rona Ambrose is the only candidate in this constit ready to be an MP. Neil Mather didn't stand for anything, except attacking Conservatives (not a good idea in spruce grove). Further, he continually contradicted himself, respecting the charter but willing to run roughshod over the constitution. Hayley Phillips was all partisan rhetoric, and Jerry, well, he lost me with the "churning butter" comment. Ambrose, on the other hand, seems to understand what she has to do -- show quiet competence, policy knowledge, and an ability to withstand the uncalled for partisan shots by planted questioners (of which there were many) and the votes will line up. As for the whole "70% in Edmonton stat", it's more like 60% (if we go by electionprediction's stats) -- but the Conservative vote carried the two edmonton sections of the riding last time around, and 50 percent of the total conservative vote is in the rural areas. It's interesting that many would think that Edmonton will go liberal... I just don't sense it. there's too much anger, and Ambrose will capitalize.
21/06/04 K.T.
Email: [hidden]
the Liberal guy Mather is in even more trouble than people are thinking. Not only will Rona clean up rural votes (that wouldn't EVER vote liberal) she will also get female votes that might have gone Liberal. And I see Ambrose around Stony Plain all the time. She's the only one with an office in Stony; she was at Farmer's, and she had a table at the town garage sale too -- the two huge summer events we have. The town garage sale had thousands of people on main, and Rona was the only one there. Mather's boat also bugs me. That's not how you earn votres here.
20/06/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
Rona Ambrose will win this riding without a doubt. As for Average Joe's comments - Neil Mather standing on boat doesn't exactly seem like him "working his butt off". Instead of Rona standing day after day in highly visible locations doing nothing to connect with voters beyond waving, she has been doing the foot work and door knocking on thousands of doors, as welll as attending many community events.
20/06/04 Steve
Email: [hidden]
I think that a lot of flashy billboards and crummy advertisements can't mask the fact that Rona hasn't really been too visible in the community. Other than doing a lot of gladhanding with community leaders, Rona has largely taken her support for granted. I think that Neil Mather is going to make this race very interesting. His family is just as well known in West Edmonton as Rona's family is in Stony Plain. 70% of the riding is within the city limits and I think that judging by the lawn signs, it is a tight race here.
15/06/04 Votespotter
Email: [hidden]
This riding has a long tradition of small-c conservatism. Joe Clark was in the eastern part of this riding in 1979 when he became PM. It voted Tory in the 80s, Reform in the 90s and Alliance in 2000. It's no longer an agricultural riding, though. Adding western Edmonton (including West Edmonton Mall) to the constituency and the fact that Spruce Grove and Stony Plain are now commuter communities and not farm centers only changes the flavor of the conservatism.
Ambrose surprised many in gaining the Conservative nomination, beating out a popular former Spruce Grove mayor and several big-wigs in the Alberta govt. and Alliance party machinery. And the previous comment is right: not many in these parts know her. But she will still take the riding.
Mather may take some votes due to his active campaign style (waving to commuters from large roadside platforms). He has an attractive life story: living in New York during 9-11 and having that day change his focus so much that he came home to be active in public life. Interesting background, but Ambrose and party tradition will still take the day. Green and NDP not even on the radar here.
12/06/04 Initial (M)
Email: [hidden]
Rona Ambrose will win easily - one of the other posters noted that she isn't well known in the riding and that she doesn't live there. But she grew up in Parkland County and her family still lives there - and she's known by a lot of people in the riding, and actually has a lot of support. Everyone who meets her sees she's head and shoulders above the other candidates and that she will be a great MP for Edmonton-Spruce Grove.
10/06/04 Average Joe
Email: [hidden]
I think that a lot of people should look a little closer as to what is happening in this riding. Mather seems to be working his butt off for this seat and not buying into the fact that he should lose handily. Ambrose is a strong candidate, but she hasn't really done too much in this campaign so far while I have seen Mather and his boat three or four times. A lot of people believe in the value of hard work, no matter what party they come from. Especially in an election where so many people are undecided. I can only speak for myself, but Mather's hard work wins him my vote.
01/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
As others have said, this riding will most likely be solidly conservative. The portion of the riding in Edmonton is almost entirely made-up of newly developed suburbs full of small-c conservatives. Add to that the outlying community of Spruce Grove, which is firmly conservative, and the outcome is quite clear. This might actually work into the Liberals favour though, because a large chunk of Tory votes from Edmonton Centre have now been transferred into the riding in which the Liberals had little chance of winning anyway.
The only problem for the Conservatives might be that their candidate, Rona Ambrose, is not well known in riding and does live here either. Neil Mather on the other hand has a very well known family and has some history in the area. Either way, the final result should be interesting.
25/05/04 Cory Willis
Email: cory.willis@shaw.ca
I'm surprised this new riding hasn't attracted more posts, although I'm not sure how credible non-Tory posts would be. I agree with Nick that this is a solidly Conservative riding, and Rona Ambrose is a very good young professional candidate.
Neil Mather seems a decent fellow, and he might have stood a chance if the election had been in January and the Tories had picked a less competent candidate, but the Liberal tide's gone out on this one. Better luck next time.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is made up of former Alliance ridings, and an alliance part of a Liberal riding. Easy win.

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