Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Edmonton Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:00 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:35 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
John Baloun
Laurie Hawn
Parti Marijuana Party:
Lyle Kenny
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Anne McLellan
Meghan McMaster
Peggy Morton
Green Party/Parti Vert:
David Parker
PC Party/Parti PC:
Sean Tisdall

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Edmonton Centre-East (5.9%)
Peter Goldring
Edmonton Southwest (20.6%)
James Rajotte
Edmonton West (73.5%)
Hon. Anne McLellan

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,103 42.62%
21,733 41.90%
3,739 7.21%
3,632 7.00%
657 1.27%

Edmonton Centre-East
(17/239 polls, 5474/78385 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Edmonton Southwest
(51/212 polls, 18963/83691 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Edmonton West
(178/240 polls, 67692/88261 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
23/06/04 Initial
Email: dahlcorey88@yahoo.ca
This riding will be extremely close, yet I am sure the liberals will win by a slim margin.
23/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
Edmonton-Centre will be the only Alberta seat won by the Liberals. Anne will win it, no doubt in my mind. She should even increase her vote, this time around. The same will not happen to David Kilgour, who I think will lose in his riding. The second best result by a Liberal in Alberta will be in Edmonton-East, but I think it'll be around 8 % behind the Conservatives. I think Edmonton-Str. and Athabaska should be kept by Conservaives with ease. The NDP will win no seat in Alberta.
23/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Since the time for predictions is coming to an end, I will take a chance and make a Liberal prediction here that Anne will win. It will obviously be close again, but the fact that she is still in a tie at this late stage in the game may be important. If the Conservatives couldn't finish her off while they were on the rise earlier in the campaign, they may not be able to do it now that their numbers are going down a bit and the Liberals are ahead of them a bit. The fact that it may be a Liberal government on Monday may help convice voters here to keep her as their MP.
23/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Anne had a good showing at the town hall meeting last night. She seemed to have the support of the croud.
21/06/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
According to recent polls, which show Conservative Laurie Hawn at 41% and Liberal Anne McLellan with a slight edge at 42%, it is quite obvious that this riding is going to be decided by a very small margin. However, I believe that Hawn has the advantage. Not only does his party have an overwhelming lead in Alberta polls, but in previous elections Anne McLellan had run on being Alberta's voice in government, something which is in serious jepordy at the moment. In fact, this claim now works in Hawn's favour since his experience in the Canadian Air Force could land him the Defence or Veteran Affairs portfolio in a Harper government. However, there is one additional point that I believe may be a significant factor in the outcome of Edmonton Centre, and that is the Progressive Canadian Party's decision to field a candidate. By doing so, disgruntled PCers, who may have felt compelled to vote for the Liberals, are likely to cast their votes for the "PC" candidate ! instead. It is also possible that the Progressive Canadians may lure a number of former Liberal-voting moderates, who fear Hawn and the Conservatives but can no longer bring themselves to endorse a Liberal, to vote for the party. Although this number may be very small, perhaps a mere 100-200 votes, its impact will be significant. It is clear the Alliance vote is only going to grow from the 2000 election. In this riding, every vote will count
20/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I have say it is all over for Anne McLellan. She won by narrow margins each time and that was when the Libearls were popular nationwide and there were two right-leaning parties. Also, she is also was in Cabinet which ties her to some of the unpopular policies and scandals of the government. Laurie Hawn will take this by a few thousand votes.
20/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
It seems I was mistaken about where LAurie would be in a Conservative Government. Because he is rumoured to take the Defence Post, I think many Edmonton voters would feel comfortable voting ofr him and, and trouncing the Deputy Prime Minister. I think there is no question to which party has the momentum right now, and many Liberals are buying out of that party's stock. All in all, if the trend continues until June 28th, I think it is likely we'll see Hawn in cabinet. And, let's remember, this IS Alberta. Cons: 45 Lib: 42
20/06/04 RWA
There are reasons to go either way here. If support is dead even as the COMPAS poll suggests, advantage Hawn. It will be easier to get out Tory voters as they are more motivated this time around (either they are party stalwarts thrilled at the prospect of actually winning and taking Anne out, or they are voters who are furious about Adscam). The Liberal vote has fewer reasons to be strongly motivated. Also in Hawn's favour is that Anne's stock campaign message, send her as a voice for the west in government, is evaporating as it's beginning to look like there won't be a Liberal government.
However, let's note that the Conservative surge is not nationwide. Their shift from solidly second place to front-runner is almost entirely due to the mammoth shift in Ontario. The Liberals are in no worse position in Alberta than they usually are.
Good luck trying to call this one. I think McLellan still has a slight edge.
16/06/04 Dave the Liberal
Email: davetheliberal@hotmail.com
I was at the all-candidates forum at the Crestwood Community League the other night and Anne McLellan did very well. There were some pretty tough questions, but she was able to answer and explain her anwsers very clearly. She also spoke out in favour of Senate Reform...very cool.
Conservative Candidate Laurie Hawn did pretty good in his introduction, but I thought he fell flat when answering questions. It might have something to do with his party having no real substantive policies???
Young ND Candidate Meaghan McMaster did fairly well, but the real fight in Edmonton Centre seems to be between Anne & Laurie.
Also, the Green and Independent Candidates were pretty entertaining.

Anne was the clearly the winner in this forum.
Come June 28, Anne McLellan will be re-elected as the MP for Edmonton Centre.
13/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
I think you could actually classify this riding as a "bellwether riding". Remember, every riding has a percentage value of people who just vote for whoever is going to win anyway. I say that whoever wins this election (and it's going to be very close) will be sent to Ottawa.
12/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
This is the toughest riding to call in the country! A recent COMPASS poll was taken just for the riding and Anne is beating Laurie by only a single percentage point! (I think it was 43%-42%) This riding strictly depends on who can get out the vote, I mean, it swings both ways. No matter what party you are affiliated with, one has to acknoledge that Anne has been an amazing MP for this riding, and she has represnted it well in the house as she is so prominent. I don't know if voters would want to turn to Laurie, who would simply be a backbencher in the government. In this sense the riding is spoiled and would therefore turn red. On the other hand, those really pissed off at the Liberals would love to see their candidate go down, and who better than Martin's right hand man. (in this case, lady) It will all come down to if the riding is willing to trade a somebody for a nobody strictly for revenge. I say they won't... but it will be close.
12/06/04 Stevo
Who on earth are all these nutty people predicting NDP wins in ridings across Alberta? I'd have to think that they're being completely facetious in making such declarations. In regards to Edmonton-Centre, as I've said before I do think Anne McLellan will hang on. She managed to win in 2000 even though the Liberal campaign essentially made Alberta its punching bag. Of course it'll be close, but I think she'll pull it off with a 1000-vote plurality over Laurie Hawn. One should note that the united right will not benefit the new Conservatives in Western Canada as it would in Ontario, since all right-leaning Westerners left for the Reform party and the Alliance long ago, leaving only a left-leaning federal PC rump in the West. Therefore, it is far more likely that Albertans who voted PC in 2000 will vote Liberal from now on and this will keep Liberal candidates competitive in Edmonton.
11/06/04 C MacKay
Email: Sql_Cam_MacKay@hotmail.com
1. I have a little bit of insight into the election camps in this riding as I had to go to each of them in search of support for a charitable purpose. The one thing that really stood out for me is that the Conservative campaign head quarters is Alive. Its full of people and everyone seems to be very motivated and determined. I can't say the same for Annes campaign. Their just seems to be more life in the conservative camp.
2. The conservative campaign manager turned out to be an old university buddy of mine. For what its worth he says Lauri hawn has knocked 22,000 doors before the election. Thats got to turn a few votes.
3. The Liberal campaign managers comments were that they seem to have the same support they had last time from their volunteers.
4. I can't see the marketing strategy that Anne's campaing team has worked up to be very successful. "A voice for the west" most people I talk to have one of two comments. The voice of the west comes directly from the eastern Prim minister to us, or what good is a liberal voice for the west in a conservative government. Plastering Anne Mcclelans face (very poor picture) all over the constituancy personally does nothing for me.
5. Annes strategy of matching laurie hawn event for event does nothing but raise Lauries profile. Why appear in the paper with him everywhere she goes.
6. The one thing in Alberta politics that Kills your chances of winning is blatant corruption. A conservative might be able to get away with it for a liberal it is political suicide. Look how many ridings provincially went liberal in the first Klein election mostly due to govt corruption.
7. The attack ads of the liberals play well in the rest of canada, in Alberta I think their effectiveness is negative if anything.
8. For the first time in a long time the right actually has a very credible candidate in laurie hawn.
9. The only edge I think Anne may have is organization. Her team has shown it is organized in the past. It looks like the conservatives are on top of that but then again they might not be. Although their campaign manager is the most organized person I have ever known and has pulled off many big organizational events in the past.
10. If you ever think that conservatives have a chance at winning this seat it is now or never.
It will be very close but I think the CPC will take it.
To be fair to the survey to expose my own bias I will not be voting liberal.
11/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
Well unlike certain other ridings (eg. Toronto Danforth) that are supposedly close even though the polls show 20 point leads, this riding is in the genuinely too close to call category. The COMPASS poll released today shows Anne McClellan ahead by 1 point over the Conservatives, but with the margin of error factored in, who knows which way this is going to break. It can genuinely go either way, so this is indeed one that we won't know until election night.
11/06/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Anne's troubles are only growing. There is absolutely no reason to vote for her now. As it looks more and more likely that the next government will be Conservative the whole 'vote for a Cabinet Minister' pledge rings pretty sad. Harper is going strong. Only a MAJOR screwup on his parts in the debates stops Hawne from getting over 50% of the vote.
10/06/04 Volks Lad
Email: [hidden]
Remember what I said about the Alberta Conservatives putting their efforts into Edmonton Centre? Forget that. 12 defections..yikes. But the Conservatives will still take the riding. Maybe even moreso now.
10/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I'm rather suspicious of the grand "endorsement of the twelve"...fomer cabinet ministers from waaaay back, none of whom may even live in the riding. It looks more like a set-up by the Liberal campaign, showing more stress than support. If the Conservatives are likely to form a minority government, it is hard to see any Alberta ridings blocking them./TD>
06/06/04 Volks Lad
Email: [hidden]
As it becomes more and more apparent that the Conservatives can form the government, votes will flow away from the Libs to the Conservatives. Every riding is important now and the Alberta Conservatives can and will put more resources into Edmonton Centre to shore up support.
04/06/04 A.W.
Email: [hidden]
I note that on Meghan's website that Michael Phair, the Edmonton City Councillor from Ward 4 (in Edmonton Centre) has endorsed her campaign. This is a big shift from the last election where he and other usual NDP supporters succumbed to the lure of "strategic voting" and took out an ad in support of Anne
02/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
My prediction: A Conservative sweep of Alberta.
Only (and I mean ONLY) Kilgour stands in the way of the blue wave.
Whereas David might manage to pull it off, there's just no way that Anne wins a riding that she won by recount in 2000 with Ipsos reporting only 14% of their Albertan respondents being possessed of an improved opinion of the Liberal Party at the 1/3 mark of the campaign. If she's to win, Martin better score the winning goal for the Flames tomorrow night in Tampa Bay.
As much respect as I have for the "incredible" power wielded by the Deputy Prime Minister in Canada... CPC pick up in 'Redmonton'.
01/06/04 Robert
Email: [hidden]
While folks in Calgary have been comfortable not having a member in the government in the last 10 years, people in Edmonton tend to be a bit brighter when it comes to politics so I predict that they will continue to send at least one Liberal (two if you count D. Kilgour) from the city.
01/06/04 Dan Lamden
Email: danlamden@hotmail.com
Agree with the last two people who posted. Oliver had always been a part of Anne Mclelland's riding. What is now included is a good chunk of the Downtown core (97 Street - 109 Street) which would include college students, yuppies, and new condo owners as this area is being revitalized. Normally it wouldnt make a big difference because of how small the new areas are in terms of voters, but with the redistribution and the new borders, it cant hurt the Liberals as it grabbed from left leaning areas.
However its funny to see how people are trying to put the spin in favour of their own party in this riding, because as usual it truly is too close to call. No one will know how it will go down, in my opinion, as I believe the common voter in this riding hasnt made up their mind. Frankly it is a difficult choice.
Everyone has a bias so here's mine about my home riding on Edmonton Centre. I was actually a candidate in 2000 in Lethbridge for Canadian Action, so it was interesting to see how the machine works from the inside. People can and have called me from a communist to a fascist and everything in between, but I like to think I'm a centrist with social left and fiscal moderate views.After the election I joined the PC Party as I was impressed with Joe Clark's leadership and not so much with the party I ran for. So of course when Alliance and PC merged, red tories got squeezed out.
This is probably one of the lowest areas of "conservative" belief in Alberta, with the riding encompassing urban, gay, civil servant and blue collar communities, and Liberals holding seats provincially. Edmonton Strathcona would probably be the only other one that is less conservative. Its still a wide mix with no specific "group" that dominates the political landscape in this riding. That being said folks, this is Alberta so even the worst Conservative showing in the province could still mean a victory. Not to be pessimistic but the choices are:
1) A deputy PM, who is well seasoned, but hasnt done anything significant to gain support in this riding. Paul Martin as PM and the scandals most definiately hurts her cause. Will people be willing to hold their noses and vote for her again a third time without getting anything in return?
2) A rookie Conservative candidate, who seems to be enthusiastic and doing well in the P.R. arena, but whose leader and party doesnt fall totally in line with this ridings views. If elected for sure he would be a quiet backbencher, pretty well much the reverse of Anne.
3) A student as an NDP candidate. The NDP would have to move mountains to realistically win a seat, and I know from personal experience (there were three university students, I was the only univ student running for a fringe) that being a student negatively impacts you because people feel that you're not mature enough to assume a position like M.P..
4) A decent Green candidate, and althought Greens are slowly gaining in popularity, not enough to make a major impact here at the moment.
So really it is a battle of evils and strategy and the personal pull of voting strategically or what or who you truly feel is the best. For some reason my gut tells me that there will be liberal votes last time siphoned by both Conservative and NDP and this time because of growing resentment, the Conservatives will squeak it out, depending on how the rest of the campaign goes. I hate to say it, because stupidity will rule the day (as you can see by the conservative spin doctors on this site) but for a 4th election in a row this will be a close one going late into the night.
28/05/04 J. Fleming
Email: [hidden]

I have to disagree with MJ Kennedy's comments about the Oliver neighbourhood being new to Anne McLellan's riding.
I've lived in the Oliver neighbourhood since 1994, and in the ten years I have lived here Anne McLellan has always been our MP.
28/05/04 M. Wolf
Email: mattwolf@shaw.ca
I feel I need to add some clarity to M.J. Kennedy’s moronic posting. First, the assertion that the Conservative party has failed to "unite the right" is untrue, at least speaking for Edmonton Centre. I know that Rory Koopman, the gentleman that ran in Edmonton West (now Edmonton Centre) as the Progressive Conservative candidate in the last federal election is solidly supporting Laurie Hawn by volunteering with the campaign. And even if only 1 in 2 so-called "Red Tories" votes for Hawn, the CPC should still defeat Anne by combining PC (divided in 2) and CA totals and adjusting for the boundary change in which a solid CA chunk is gained in the south (assuming the NDP does as well as in 2000). As for provincial Tories supporting Anne, this largely over-exaggerated phenomenon is being proliferated by McLellan’s political hacks.
More importantly, Kennedy errs when stating that Oliver is new to the riding. This is entirely false: Oliver was always part of Edmonton West, and will continue to be part of Edmonton Centre. As mentioned above, territory was gained in the South that solidly supported James Rajotte previously. This is a huge boost the Hawn’s campaign. As for this notion of "strategic voting" Kennedy speaks of, this is a novel concept that is not employed in the minds of the average voter. A constituent will vote for whom he or she believes will serve their interests best. They will not study the battlefield of Edmonton Centre, determine poll-by-poll holdings, and vote accordingly.
In addition, I find comparing an election to a referendum highly overused. This is mindless rhetoric that hacks throw around in an attempt to seem intellectual. Every riding in which an incumbent is running is in a sense a referendum on the incumbent. An election as a whole is a referendum on the government. Kennedy is more a Napoleon III than he is a Bismarck, in the sense that he attempts to employ big words and theories without understanding the true forces at play.
28/05/04 Kady
Email: [hidden]
While it is true that Anne McLellan will face heat from the sponsership issue, there is no question that she will win this riding. The Liberal party has made excellent strides in the past year (and some steps back too). The DPM is incredibly hard-working, and there's no way that Laurie has the same kind of volunteer base that she does. As for Anne McLellan's supporters and volunteers, they are the farthest thing I can think of from "campagne-swilling socialites". Support for the DPM is so widespread that she is attracting people from other ridings to come work for her. All of the candidates in this riding are working extremely hard, so I don't think that number of doors knocked can be indicative of a potential victory. Anne McLellan will win, but she's keep us all on the edge of our seats. She has way too much experience to lose.
25/05/04 MJ Kennedy
Email: [hidden]
The last Compas poll showed the Liberals with 40%, Conservatives with 42% and NDs with 16% in the City of Edmonton.
In the 2000 election the Liberals polled 37.9% city-wide - hitting 50.9% for Kilgour, 44.2% for McLellan, and then a rather more meagre 31 - 34% in the other four ridings.
The Alliance pulled in 44.5% of the vote city-wide, and the PC's earned 7.5% for a total theoretical "united right" vote of 52%. The ND's had 9%.
Based on this current polling, it seems fair to conclude:
1) That Liberals have retained, city-wide, a level of support similar to 2000
2) There is no reason to believe that within the city voting patterns for any one riding have shifted significantly
3)The Conservative Party has failed, at least locally, to "unite the right". Whether you consider the Edmonton Alliance vote (44.5%) or the combined PC-Alliance vote (52%) the current polling puts the Conservatives at the lower figure of 42%. It would seem that the share of the vote owned by the old PC's has shifted to the ND's (which is not quite the same thing as saying that the PC voters are voting ND).
While McLellan has always faced a tough fight, there doesn't seem to be anything in the polling to indicate that she is in a worse situation than last time out.
A notable characteristic of the riding is that the vote for "other" parties (PC, ND, etc.)is very small. The voters in West (now Centre) and Southeast (now Beaumont) know the score: it's a referendum on Anne McLellan and David Kilgour every time. In those ridings, votes for other parties are only 11.8% and 8.6% of the total, which is incredibly small. In the other city ridings fully 20.8% of the vote goes to also-ran parties.

With redistribution, losing chunks of the west end and gaining Oliver will give McLellan a base of voters who don't know her (or understand the "strategic voting" that takes place when you're in a referendum-like constituency).

My view: a failure by Oliver residents to understand how strategic voting works is the incumbent's biggest risk factor. If a signficant number of the new area's ND voters stick with voting on principle, then she's got a big problem.
The transposed results for the redistributed boundary show the margin of victory dropping from 733 to 370 based on the boundary changes, while the PC/ND/other vote jumps from 11.8% to 20.4% (precisely the risk I've described above).
So I think the race is too close to call, but not because of the national polling results or a local upsurge for the Conservatives. Based on local polling, the incumbent's strength (including support among provincial Tories), and the failure of the "right" to consolidate locally I think factors point to McLellan's re-election. But based on re-distribution, I think the race falls back into being too close to call, but with a slight edge to McLellan.
25/05/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Anne has never come within 5% of the combined PC/Reform/Alliance vote in this riding. The re-configuration of the riding does not help her in this regard. Edmonton Centre voters are conservative at heart, have shown that they do not care about the cabinet status of their member or parliament and have NO reason to switch to the Liberals.
Hawne will be elected and Anne will return to a full-time posting as Dean of the Faculty of Law at the University of Alberta.
25/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I expect Meghan McMaster to do well this year. Keep your eye on her, as she is well respected in Edmonton, and has many fans that live in Edmonton Center.
Also, don't underestimate the effect of her attendance at GMCC, as many of her fellow student plan to "vote for one of thier own," and many of them live in Edmonton Center.
The other element of note is that many of those considering voting Liberal/Conservative weigh each element of the party back and forth, they teeter from one to the other, and many are choosing to boycott as they feel there is no clear "better alternative." Us NDP, however, are very clear cut on who we will vote for, and are ardent in converting all around us. So, watch out for Mehgan, she just might suprise you.
24/05/04 RetroRyan
I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Conservatives will win this riding by a narrow margin of about 1%. The deputy PM will be a very strong candidate for the Liberals, but the Conservative tide is just too strong here. The Conservatives are running at about 57% Alberta-wide, which should give them enough of an edge. Plus, you must consider that the Alberta Conservatives can safely pool all of their resources into the five closest Alberta seats, whereas the Alberta Liberals' team might be stretched thin. But don't expect the Liberals to lose this one without a vigourous fight.
24/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
The recent Compas poll had interesting subsample results that showed the Conservatives taking everything in Alberta outside of Edmonton, but inside edmonton, it would be a tough fight for both parties with the Conservatives ahead just 42-40%...that suggests to me that the Liberals will likely hold onto at least one of their two seats, but that there will be no easy sweep for anyone...
23/05/04 J. Fleming
Email: [hidden]
I have lived in Anne McLellan's riding for the past ten years (Edmonton West).
She has worked very hard to maintain a high level of visibility in the riding, regularly sending newsletters to keep us abreast of issues and developments in Ottawa. In addition, her holding a number of highly visible cabinet posts also keeps her name on the radar screens of the electorate.
This name recognition gives her a decided advantage over other candidates.
23/05/04 CJ
Email: [hidden]
If you looked at how Edmonton Centre was reconfigured, you would see that McLellan is going to win her easily. The Liberals on the riding boundary commission ensured it. There isn't a poll in the new riding of Edmonton Centre that Anne didn't win last time. Just take a look at the poll by poll results from last time and you'll see.
23/05/04 D. McMillan
Email: [hidden]
I can't believe the posts that predict that Anne McLellan is going to be defeated. As a voter in Edmonton Centre, I don't see how Conservative Candidate Laurie Hawn would be able to defeat her? I'm sure he is a nice person, but it seems to me that his only claim to fame is that he used to fly fighter jets and he wants to spent more on the military. ohhhh. Sounds like a one trick pony to me.
Retired air force guy vs. Deputy Prime Minister of Canada. I can see where this is going.
Anne McLellan is the best candidate in Edmonton Centre and will be re-elected as MP.
19/05/04 Shelley
Email: riceshelly2001@hotmail.com
The general feeling that I have seen is that she is a wonderful MP regardles of her party. While I hesitate to say this riding will go Liberal, I would definitely say it WILL go McLellan!
19/05/04 CC
Email: [hidden]
Very little is being said about the NDP here. I think the NDP will perform much better than previous elections taking votes away from the Liberals. Edmonton/Alberta hates waste and the sponsorship scandal is going to hurt the Liberals in the West. This NDP/Liberal vote split will cause a Conservative win.
08/05/04 Stevo
Folks, deputy prime ministers do not lose their ridings, and yes this would include a Liberal deputy PM in Alberta. Anne McLellan couldn't be defeated in 2000 when she had far less power in the government and was languishing under a leader who devised a campaign to win votes in Ontario strictly by bashing Alberta. If the Alliance couldn't win this riding under those conditions in 2000, then the Conservatives will not be able to do so this time around against a much stronger McLellan (who occupies the second most powerful position in the country) and a Liberal Prime Minister who is unlikely to seriously inflame Western sensibilities in the manner of his predecessor. Anne McLellan will win her seat by 1500-2000 votes.
08/05/04 psephologist
Email: [hidden]
Polls have consistently been showing the Tory vote down in Alberta from the last election. While the high Reform margins last time will keep them from losing many ridings, they certainly won't gain ridings here, especially ones where the Liberal incumbent has taken on a higher profile.
06/05/04 Cameron Donald
Email: c_donald@telusplanet.net
Contrary to Colin B. statement the riding of Edmonton Centre Federal is no more left leaning then the former riding of Edmonton West or Northwest before that.
Since 1958 the riding has been held by Conservative members (Lambert & Dorin) for 35 years and the Liberals have had it 11 years. The new riding is a high density riding which demographically is predispositioned to conservative voting. The provincial ridings within it are probably what Colin is basing his decision on.
The riding can be won if the focus is placed on the highrise's of Oliver as was done in the 1988 Election by Mr. Dorin that is where he fought a similar election, against similar odds.
Anne McLellan will win this seat. Despite what people say at the door, on election day they will vote for a strong voice at the cabinet table for Edmonton. If the conservatives wanted this "red tory" seat, then they should have nominated a moderate candidate. Hawn is too right wing for Edmonton Centre. This will, however, be a very close race, and I can't understand why!
28/04/04 Colin Broughton
Email: ColinB@Harding.ca
This left-leaning riding will elect a Conservative (Hawne), with the NDP picking up a sizeable share of the vote from disaffected Liberals and Red Tories. Prior to the sponsorship scandal, this race would have been tough to predict. Now the voters are morally outraged, and getting this dog unmad is not going to be easy. The Liberal candidate, Anne MacLellan is intelligent, articulate, and a fierce campaigner. Alas for Anne, those who vote Liberal will be holding their noses. Hawne will work the trenches, knocking on every door and emptying the churches to win. Final results: 40% CPC, 35% Lib, 25% NDP.
26/04/04 B.A.R.
I'm not entirely certain what R Coopman is speaking about. I have a great deal of experience with both the Provincial PC Party AND the Hawn Campaign in Edmonton Centre. Progressives Conservatives of all stripes (be it provincial or federal) such as myself are more than welcome on the Hawn team. To suggest that some of Laurie's top campaign people are ill-suited to the job is both false and ridiculous. I would put the hard working and dedicated volunteers of the Hawn campaign up against the gang of champagne sipping socialites and other various opportunists that Anne has.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
I'm a former PC'er myself and there's no way that I'd ever support Anne McLellan over Laurie Hawn.
The deputy PM is going to be like a duck in a shooting gallery. She's in plain view and will probably be the venting point of many Albertans who are fed up with the Liberal government.
Hawn wins, and the Liberals drop to 1 seat in Alberta.
19/04/04 R. Coopman
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals will squeeze out another victory sadly due to the the Reform/Alliance egomanics like Vito Marcano, Bill McBeath and General Hawn. This riding has tried to come together since merger but the abuse attacks made by the big three has caused a lot of us provincial PCs to simply walk away and let the General enjoy the company of his "friends". Believe me now that we know what General Hawn is like Captain (Robb) Hawn will be stonewalled on his provincial aspirations.
"Sins of the father, visited on the son"
19/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
How does anybody see this going to any other party besides Conservative? Anne barely took this seat last year, with low Liberal support in Alberta, and a united right which would have taken this seat last year, there should be no way this does not go Conservative.
13/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
2000 probably represented the high water mark of NDP supporters voting for the Liberals. So unless Martin can demonize Harper just as Chretien was able to do to Stockwell Day, Mclellan will lose support to the NDP, but probably not enough to make the NDP a contender for the seat. I wish that would happen, but I recognize that as wishful thinking.
The question, then, is who PC voters will support. Speaking only for myself, as a current NDP member who once joined the PC Party to vote for David Orchard as leader, I would have a difficult time deciding between the deputy PM / minister of public security / possible future leader for a government that's grown calcified and corrupt, and a longtime Reform Party member with careers in the military and in banking. Would I want to take the chance of electing a government that would get us into another of George Bush's dirty little wars, with Canadians dying for an immoral cause? Personally, I would, but I think a lot of Red Tories would think differently and vote for Mclellan.
And perhaps I'm also wrong about the NDP picking up votes from the Liberals. If the Liberals can focus their fearmongering on foreign policy instead of social issues, they may find fertile ground, given what's changed in the world between 2000 and 2004. At least in this riding, where there's a senior, influential, and competent cabinet minister, the desire to throw the bastards out will be tempered by some reflection. I predict another narrow victory for Mclellan.
05/04/04 dvd
Email: [hidden]
Liberals have won this seat only with the support of centre/left ND sympathy and a desire to keep Reform/Alliance/Tories out. In 2004 the Liberals have moved to the right, thus effectively alienating the progressive vote.
31/03/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Anne was the beneficiary of vote splitting in all three of her previous races. Sitting as a cabinet member in an unpopular government does not play well with Edmontonians. In 1993 Jim Edwards was President of the Treasury Board and did not even win enough votes to get his deposit back in Edmonton Southwest (parts of which are in the new Edmonton Centre riding). Anne will lose by a greater margin than her three wins combined.
25/03/04 W. McBeath
Email: wmcbeath@telusplanet.net
As always, the riding of Edmonton Centre will be a tough fight. However, there are a number of factors counting in favour of Laurie Hawn and against Anne McLellan this time around.
1. Anne will be facing tough criticism of her government's association with the sponsorship scandal. Wasted money from the gun registry (once again her responsbility), AdScam, and many other things will hurt her.
2. The Liberal government's apparent position on Same-Sex marriage. Ethinc and religious individuals who may have voted Liberal in the past are making the decision to vote Conservative this time around.
3. Very organized riding association. The Edmonton Centre Conservative Riding Association (or Electoral District Association to be correct) is one of the most organized, effective, and well-prepared EDA's in the country. This organization has veteran campaigners as its board members, has raised a fair amount of money, and is working tirelessly on elections readiness.
4. Great Candidate. Laurie Hawn is the hardest working candidate I have had the privilege of campaigning for. He has doorknocked on over 12,000 doors since his election as a candidate, and shows no signs of slowing down.
At the end of the day, this will be a close election, 1,000 votes either way, but in my opinion, disatisfaction with the Liberal government combined with an aggressive Conservative campaign and a top-notch conservative candidate will allow the Conservatives to take back this riding.
23/03/04 C. Jones
Email: christopherdavidjones@hotmail.com
NDP Candidate Megan McMaster will be running a strong campaign for the NDP in Edmonton Centre. Expect the NDP to do better than expected in this riding.
20/03/04 W. Indy
Email: [hidden]
Anne McLellan will be re-elected and the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives will again be 2nd place in Edmonton Centre. As Deputy PM, Anne has proved herself as an articulate and powerful force at the cabinet table for all Alberta.
The voters of Edmonton Centre are smart enough to know that they will be getting better representation by re-electing the Deputy Prime Minister and a proven MP than they would by electing a backbench opposition MP.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

During the 2000 election, I predicted that McLellan would win by 70 votes -- in the event, it turned out to be a bit higher. This time, I'm going to go out on a limb even further: I predict that Liberal fortunes in Alberta will recover *somewhat* by election day -- not enough for a huge breakthrough, but enough to allow McLellan a more comfortable margin of victory.
19/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're giving this one to the Conservatives for the time being, when in actuality it's going to be a close three way race (with the NDP clearly third). Anne McLennan, despite being deputy prime minister will still have a very tough time keeping her riding. This is probably one of the most progressive ridings in all of Alberta, but still, it IS Alberta and the Conservatives are very very strong. A surge in NDP support (and it is here where they'll get the most support in Alberta) will only bleed votes away from the Liberals. Going to be a very close race.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
Much too close to call. Hard to tell how McLellan's enhanced profile as second banana may influence the outcome. As for the vote-splitting argument, sorry but anyone who voted PC in Alberta in 2000 did so because they absolutely could not stomach voting for the Alliance (ie Red Tories). Every single poll has told us that the second choice of PC voters in 2000 was overwhelmingly the Liberals, not the Alliance. I highly doubt most of those PC votes will migrate over to the CPC (especially if Harper wins the leadership). With a more West-friendly leader at the helm, the Liberals could easily be the beneficiaries of most if not all of them. That being said, the Conservatives will run hard and put a lot of resources into this riding. Way too close to call at this point.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
In the last election, the PC party took 7% of the vote here. One would assume, it being certain the Alliance would field the stronger candidate, that all tory voters here were so-called "red tories"
I think that the fact that Mrs.McLellan is the DPM, coupled with Red Tory votes, will push her over the top
17/03/04 Craig
Even if the Conservatives were still split, the centre-left spillover to the NDP would be enough for Anne to lose this riding (one of the more progressive ridings in Alberta). A united right-wing vote will increase the margin of victory here and it won't even be close. The Conservatives will likely paint Alberta completely blue and take a clean sweep. Predicted results: Conservative 49%, Liberal 33%, NDP 15%, others 3%.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: gabbyjuk@yahoo.ca
Prior to the scandal, this looked like Anne McClellan's first east election victory. Afterwards, and after the PC/Alliance merger, she should be toast.
16/03/04 Hatrock
Email: [hidden]
In 1993, Anne McLellan won by only 11 votes. In 1997, she won by about 1100 votes, and in 2000 she won by about 700. But that was when the PC and Reform/Alliance parties weren't together. Anne only won because of a vote split. Laurie Hawn is the best candidate running for the Conservatives in over a decade - he is credible, has an excellent campaign team, well organized, and will win by 1000 votes.
16/03/04 SB
Anne McLellan doesn't stand a chance. The Tories are running Laurie Hawn, who is a very strong candidate and will easily win this seat. I predict 60%+ for Laurie Hawn.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster