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Souris-Moose Mountain
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:27 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:53 PM 14/03/2004

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Grant Devine
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Sigfredo Gonzalez
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Robert Jacobson
Ed Komarnicki
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Lonny McKague
Robert Stringer

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Souris-Moose Mountain (100.0%)
Roy Bailey

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,835 63.69%
4,595 15.54%
4,166 14.09%
1,976 6.68%
0 0.00%

Souris-Moose Mountain
(164/164 polls, 48386/48386 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Joey Kay
Email: [hidden]
Almost too close to call.
I don't live in this riding and don't know exactly how strong the NDP candidate is here. What I do know is Grant Devine does still have a huge following in this province and for good reason. Despite his stumbles, not one person in this province could ever dispute his love for Saskatchewan.
Given that, who couldn't see this as a flashback to the Grant Schmidt (former Devine minster) debacle of the provincial election. The Sask Party rejected Schmidt just like the Conservatives rejected Devine. Schmidt split the vote but the Sask Party still won that riding.
Although Devine could surprise us, likely the only way this won't go Conservative is
a) if Stringer is a VERY strong candidate (but looks like Stringer is a bit of a snore)
b) if there is a total Liberal collapse going to the NDP.
Devine still could pull off a shocker, but smart money calls this riding Conservative.
21/06/04 Arzie Chant
Email: achant@uwo.ca
With vote splitting, this is not the Conservative strong-hold people have cast it as. It happened once before that this riding was lost as a result of vote splitting. It could happen again.
20/06/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
Some Conservative apologist who has obviously never been within 1000 miles of Souris - Moose Mountain is nattering on about the "dark cloud" over Grant Devine. Fact is, Grant Devine is and always has been nincredibly popular in this corner of the province. He is personally creditted with making the Rafferty and Alameda projects happen -- with all the ensuing economic development. I rather expect "JT" hasn't got a clue what the Rafferty and Alameda projects are, since his knowledge of the riding is clearly based on a quick tour up Stephen Harper's butt.
This seat is a two way race between the official Conservative candidate and Grant Devine. No one else is even in the picture. Certainly not the Liberals.
If this were a byelection, Devine would win in a walk. Since it is a general election, the seat probably should be rated "too close to call."
But JT and the rest of the Ontario - based Harper apologists should perhaps expend some time explaining why the supposed party of democratic reform is so afraid to give its members a choice in the selection of candidates.
08/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Oh come on, the LIBERALS? Get real. If anyone other than the conseratives win this seat it will be Devine as an ind. and even that is a pipe dream. The liberals got about 50 votes in the provincial election in this whole consituency and less than 1/4 of the votes the Con. Incumbant got in the last election. Conservative lock.
08/06/04 BAQ
Email: [hidden]
Liberals!!!! The Conservative support in this riding is strong. Even if the Tory and Devine split the vote perfectly the Liberal is still going to need at least 30%. Seeing that the Liberals were UNDER 15% of the vote last time, is not going to happen. With Liberal number crashing the party is not going to pick up any seats in Sask. To amend my earlier submission I am starting to believe that Devine may have a shot. While I agree with everyone that Devine has demons and he should not be elected, I believe he will anyway. Devine still has a good name in rural areas since he continually gave farmers money (eventhough he bankrupted the province doing it). Farmers remember the government money during his years and just my vote for him. Remember even in 1991 when his government was turfed he won all but one riding in this area. Also, during his turn Estevan also did rather well. He might be able to carry the rural polls, do well in Esetvan and then it does not matter if he gets trounced in Weyburn, he still wins. It just might happen.
02/06/04 Gregor Burton
Email: gregorburton@hotmail.com
I believe that while this Riding SHOULD go conservative, the fact that Grant Devine is running will provide a huge degree of vote splitting. Devine is extremely popular in that area - and did much for it as an MLA and Premier. Despite the scandal of his cabinet, Devine has never been implicated in anything related to the HUGE AND FAR MORE HEINOUS THAN THE SPONSORSHIP SCANDAL fiasco that occured in Saskatchewan in the 80's and into the early 90's. Grant is going to do surprisingly well as an independant. With the "Right" vote split (probably nearly in half) there is lots of room for Lonnie McHaugue to run up the middle and steal this seat.
29/05/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Keep in mind Grant Devine also has a dark cloud over his head from his days as Premier as his government was plaqued by one of the worst scandals in Canadian politics. This is why the Conservatives didn't want him. His running as an independent will put a dent in the CPC vote but not a enough for them to lose this seat.
08/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
Devine has made it official:
He's running as an Independent. His old provincial riding of Estevan is right in the heart of this federal riding. Things could get very, very interesting, even if this riding is also part of the horseshoe around the southern edges of SK that is traditionally conservative... perhaps esp. so since he's running on a very traditionally conservative platform.
07/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This seat is going to stay Conservative, even with Devine running as a independent. The NDP are not going to go from 15% to winning this seat, and it will not be going to the Liberals. Now that would leave Devine to win this seat if the Conservative party does loose it, but the best Devine in my mind can hope for is to have results like Grant Schmidt where he received about 19% of the vote in the last provincial election running as a independent. The margin of victory for the Conservative party will be smaller, but they will hold on.
07/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
there is word early this morning that Grant Devine is running as an Ind. in this riding. As I said earlier, he will win here. The only hope the CPC has of winning this riding is if the nominated candidate step's aside to allow Devine to run in his place. I cant see any other party posing a threat in this traditionally small-c conservative southern prairie riding.
here's the story from CTV:
30/04/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
The Leader-Post is reporting that Devine is still strongly considering an independent bid. The band of unaccountable backroom manipulators who spiked Devine's bid for the nomination are not only unethical, they're stupider than dirt. Devine as the Conservative candidate would have been unassailable. Devine as an independent has the capacity to assail what would otherwise be a safe Conservative hold.
20/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
Conservative win. The region is so blue that the new cons could actually have run Grant Devine and still win (of course they'd alienate much of the rest of the province).
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Another rural Saskatchewan riding, another Conservative hold. NDP will win in urban Saskatchewan and the Liberals will win only in Wascana (thanks to Goodale's popularity).
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Unless Devine runs as an independent (in which case he would win) the Tories will win this seat. They finished 15,000 votes ahead of the NDP last election. Enough said.
27/02/04 BAQ
Cons Stronghold. Should be an easy win for the Conservative candidate. The recent uproar of Grant Devine should not effect the seat. Even if Devine decides to run as an IND, I do not think the Cons party will lost this one. It should nevertheless be an interesting race, if Devine wants back in the game.

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