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Prince Albert
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:28 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:01 PM 18/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Brian Fitzpatrick
Don Hovdebo
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Patrick Jahn
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Marc Loiselle

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Prince Albert (100.0%)
Brian Fitzpatrick

2000 Result/Résultats:
14,675 45.63%
6,670 20.74%
6,596 20.51%
3,909 12.15%
310 0.96%

Prince Albert
(163/163 polls, 50682/50682 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Joey Kay
Email: [hidden]
I'm willing to call this one NDP.
I don't think Fitzpatrick resonates with First Nations or Metis people in this riding (although he got elected after his horribly inappropriate "scalping" joke that made national headlines in the 2000 election).
However, Fitzpatrick has been quite polished this time around. Perhaps Hovdebo should be using a better picture of himself than that cheap polaroid mug that's been seen everywhere. He just doesn't look "parliamentarian". But that could be a plus or minus considering the demographics of this riding.
But, much of the rural area is full of older voters and senior citizens - the same ones who voted for Stan Hovdebo back in the 80's.
Everyone is assuming this is a Conservative lock - but Prince Albert isn't the same kind of riding as Cypress Hills - Grasslands or Souris - Moose Mountain. Could be a real NDP surprise if Hovdebo can get his vote out. I wouldn't put it past him.
15/06/04 Gerry
Email: [hidden]
After speaking with family who live in the Prince Albert area, I think that the NDP will pull this one off. They live in one of the smaller rural communities and suggest that that the candidate plays well in rural areas, while the NDP traditionally poll well in the Urban areas of Prince Albert. With the NDP numbers up in the Province, they have a good shot at pulling this one off. It will be a squeaker, but this one is in play.
11/06/04 Olive_Branch
Remember where you read it first: David Orchard will endorse the NDP candidate in Prince Albert. Hovdebo will win this riding with a lot of Orchardite support.
03/06/04 R.F.
Email: [hidden]
Melfort, Nipawin, Tisdale, Ridgedale, Kinistino, Spruce Home, Birch Hills will again put Fitzpatrick way over the top. Support for the Gun Regisry and for Same-Sex Marriage will stifle any challenge by Jahn or Hovdebo.
02/06/04 MDF+
Email: [hidden]
While Laurier was elected here, it was in a riding called Saskatchewan. And he never represented the area in Parliament. In those days, senior party officials would run in multiple seats to ensure they were elected, and would then resign in all but one. Laurier only ever represented his Quebec riding in the commons, though he was elected in several other constituencies.
02/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
You heard it here first. Based on the NDP candidate's strong showing and the response on the doorstep - I am now willing to call this one for the NDP. It's going to be close but I think Don will swing just over the top by 1 or 2 % points.
25/05/04 JCM
The race in Prince Albert is ALWAYS interesting!
Contrary to many of the opinions posted on this site, Prince Albert IS NOT a lock for any one political party.
The voters of the City of Prince Albert certainly trend NDP provincially, but federally, they yearn for a high-profile MP, one who will put the city on the national map again like Diefenbaker, Mackenzie King and Laurier did when they represented the city in the House of Commons.
The other big trend in this seat is the Protest vote. Prince Albert voters love to send a protest vote.
Both of these factors, combined with the growing First Nations and Metis populations in this constituency, should make Prince Albert a tight three way fight.
13/05/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
With Don Hovdebo as the NDP candidate, I expect, this one to be actually a fight. It's too early to call a winner, but Hovdebo's roots are strong here and with the NDP strong in Prince Albert proper and with some rural votes drifting NDP provincially (though some it may well go Liberal federally), I think a close Cons./NDP race might develop here. Let's see who's ahead come mid-June...
11/05/04 Peter Mc
Email: [hidden]
I agree with the last post. The NDP is much stronger than in previous years. In fact he is related to the last NDP member to represent this riding (and later a Saskatoon one) -- Stan Hovdebo. Before that, this was long considered the safest Liberal seat in the dominion, where Prime Ministers were jetted in to protect them from possible election night embarrassment. The NDP did well here provinically last election. Another possible contributing factor is that the percentage of the population that is aboriginal grows exponentially every year, probably one of the biggest aboriginal populations in the country after Nunavut. Will they vote, though? Certainly not a lot of reason for them to vote Tory if they do.(or Liberal, really after 8 yrs of big fat nothing). If there is any national trend for the NDP as haven for a protest vote, or if a political leader can somehow engage the Aboriginal vote, look for this riding to switch it's stripes.
28/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Although it is very likly that the Conservatives will hold this seat there is an _outside_ chance that the NDP will do quite well here. The NDP candidate is very strong and the rural areas of this riding just switched TO the NDP in the provincial election. I'm not willing to call this seat for the NDP but it is one to watch.
24/04/04 Mike Chesher
Email: wluchesh@hotmail.com
The Orchardites posting on here need to get real. If Orchard "gets out the vote" so well and has such a big impact here he would have won more than a measly 12% or whatever last election. We may see Orchard run for the extremely fringe progressive canadian party, which would be great for a laugh. Conservative hold in conservative country, Orchard or not.
29/03/04 Dave S
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
David Orchard has a lot of followers (I'm one). If he runs, he'll get a lot of votes. He took over 12% last time when the PC's were essentially a fringe party and he was relatively unknown. After seeing his performance in the PC leadership race and his fight to block the takeover the the Alliance more people will consider him a serious candidate. I don't think he will run as a Liberal or NDP and I don't think he'll win as an independant but he will make a difference.
28/03/04 JT
Unless David Orchard runs as a New Democrat he won't make much of an impact in this riding. Easy Tory win.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Once again a rural Saskatchewan riding that voted strongly for the Alliance and will now likely vote for the Conservatives.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I'm predicting a Conservative win here, but David Orchard can change that. He has support in the riding, and can bring out the vote. If he somehow gets nominated for, or supports, either the Liberal or New Democrat in the area, he could throw things off balance.

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