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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
4:45 PM 6/11/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:26 PM 5/29/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Bob Burrows
Sylvia Gerl
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Vicki Gunn
PC Party/Parti PC:
Stephen Sircelj
Peter Van Loan
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Kate Wilson

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford (44.5%)
Hon. Aileen Carroll
Simcoe-Grey (0.1%)
Hon. Paul Bonwick
York North (55.4%)
Karen Kraft Sloan

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,734 45.62%
11,285 29.03%
7,913 20.35%
1,465 3.77%
479 1.23%

(77/227 polls, 31050/99471 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(2/219 polls, 68/82895 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

York North
(108/220 polls, 38719/85188 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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09/06/04 Adrian Cummings
Email: [hidden]
Word on the street has it that the Liberals are having trouble finding volunteers. I drive past their Sutton office frequently and rarely do I see any activity, or even a car parked outside.
02/06/04 Reginald Hulse
Email: [hidden]
I live in York-Simcoe and from where I stand when it comes to lawn signs the Liberal candidate is in a neck-and-neck race with Gallo Paving and Student Painters.
It would be no exageration to say that Van Loan has a 20-1 sign lead in the area. I know that signs are not the only indicator of support, but the Liberals seem very low key indeed.
For someone who works in Bradford perhaps she should have bothered to get the name of the town right. She lists an endorsement from a businessman from Bradford "East" Gwillimbury. A town which does not exist.
That is not the sign of a campaign that is going places.
01/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
Kudos to the EP for putting this riding in the Tory column.
His in-party popularity and campaign experience probably would have won PVL this seat without coat-tails, but with Ipsos now reporting a dead heat between the Conservatives and Liberals in Ontario, this riding has become a mortal lock. Regardless of Harper's performance during the remainder of the campaign, expect PVL to win a majority of the riding's votes, and count on him becoming a prominent player in the Commons.
Let the word go forth to Preston Manning... CPC in-roads in the 905.
29/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Notionally, what makes up this seat might have tallied a provincial Tory *majority*, not plurality, in 2003. (And how would the 1993 federal results add up within these boundaries, given we're talking about a lot of heavy Ed Harper Reform turf? Ultra-marginal, I'd imagine.) Looks like a perfect storm for a star candidate like Van Loan, except maybe for the residual 905ism that generally swung this territory away from Reform/Alliance t/w the Liberals from 1993 to 2000--that is, it depends on the pull exerted by "Simcoe" as opposed to the pull exerted by "York"...
13/05/04 J Poole
I don't come from the riding and have never been there, but know Peter Van Loan well enough to know that he plays to win. Peter is an effective campaigner and has the political experience which will serve him well. I predict a Tory win in this riding because Peter and his team will work for it. Unlike some other Tory campaigns in Ontario (GB in L-G?), Peter will realize that this race will require more work than simply transferring votes from previous elections.
22/04/04 RWA
This one looks like a Tory pickup for a few reasons.
1) Combined vote would have won in 2000
2) No Liberal incumbant
3) The Liberals' provincial lead in the polls has been narrowing (41%-32 in the last Ipsos-Reid poll)
4) The area voted provincially Tory in last October's Liberal landslide.
5) Peter Van Loan is a strong candidate who has been nominated for a long time and was given a bit of a national profile as the Conservative Yes chairman.
19/04/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
This riding is ripe for the picking, and Peter Van Loan knows it. He has monumental support, has name recognition from every PCer and Alliance member across the country and will easily beat an unpopular Liberal candidate here.
Some of the weakest Liberal candidates come from this part of Ontario, and the combined Tory vote mixed in with 35% for the Liberals means that Peter Van Loan will move from behind the scenes in politics to front-and-centre.
This seat is definitely a Conservative stronghold.
18/04/04 KPC
Email: [hidden]
This riding is in Tory country. Provincially, the Tory MPP Tascona won the 3rd largest Tory victory in the province. Only behind, Eves and Baird. This riding and the surrounding ridings are all going to be large Conservative victories. Simcoe County will have a very strong Tory team. The only simcoe riding that might be close is Simcoe North where Dunlop had the toughest race provincially but having said that - i predict large victory for PVL and for Conservatives in surrounding ridings.
11/04/04 Local Rob
Email: [hidden]
Put this area in the Conservative category. Liberals nominated Kate Wilson, a candidate opposed by former liberal incumbants Aileen Carroll (from the Barrie Simcoe Bradford side) and Karen Kraft-Sloan (from the York North side). Most of the area Liberals who helped elect the above mentioned MPs are now flocking to Van Loan, myself included. Just to give an example East Gwillimbury Councillor Virginia Hackson, a lifelong Liberal, is supporting Mr. Van Loan's candidacy, even appearing at his office opening. I bet that since the ADSCAM controversy broke 30-40 former Liberal members in the area have moved over to helping Van Loan. Not just Liberals voters but activists.
His organization is well oiled and honed, already having opened a campaign office in Holland Landing. He is actively campaigning, appearing at every riding event and going door to door. The area is very conservative traditionally and with a high profile candidate like Van Loan it is hard to picture the Tories not winning this riding.
26/03/04 Greg
Email: Haile2@rogers.com
The Conservative merged vote would have been just under 50%. I haven't seen the Conservatives go down in the polls and right now they are increasing their support. As we learn more about the Sponsoship Scandal and Secret Slush Fund, it just devastates the Liberals more. This riding next election- Conservative- 55%, Liberal 38%, NDP 7%
17/03/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
York-Simcoe is a lock to turn Tory Blue in the next election. Peter Van Loan is a high profile candidate for the Conservatives in a newly formed riding that is made up of parts of three conservative ridings provincially. This riding just screams out Tory take back!
17/03/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
Should be an interesting riding with former PC Party President Peter Van Loan running, and I believe the liberal incumbent not running. A winnable conservative seat in a traditional conservative area.

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