Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Wellington-Halton Hills
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
5:02 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:02 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Brent Bouteiller
Mike Chong
Noel Duignan
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Bruce Hood
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Pat Woode

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey (11.0%)
Murray Calder
Guelph-Wellington (16.3%)
Hon. Brenda Chamberlain
Halton (47.5%)
Julian Reed
Waterloo-Wellington (25.2%)
Lynn Myers

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,673 42.66%
11,712 28.27%
9,190 22.18%
1,950 4.71%
902 2.18%

(18/203 polls, 7485/81542 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(32/242 polls, 11087/89801 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(78/212 polls, 32428/98898 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(43/203 polls, 17215/77456 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
13/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
A point yet unmentioned is that by including Fergus, this is the latest version of a "Perrin Beatty" riding. (The archetypal Ontario PC boy scout, Beatty was knocked out by Murray Calder in '93; Calder was redistributed eastward and Lynn Myers represented Fergus from '97 onward; now Myers has been redistributed westward and this new seat's been shoehorned in-between.) In a case like this, the advantages of an ex-PCer over an ex-Alliancer are clear. Unless the spirit of 2000 can be rekindled, doesn't look great for the Grits, although the prospect of a Carr-Hood double-hockey-puck encompassing the huge swath of north Halton certainly intrigues. Oh, and don't make too much of Duignan; he was the fluke of all flukes amidst 1990's Bob Rae fluke, had a lower (and depositless!) % than any incumbent in 1993, and fared miserably in every other election he's run in...
25/05/04 GM
Email: [hidden]
A former PC Candidate (Chong) is running under the Conservative banner. Add to this the riding demographics and you have the makings of a Conservative victory in Wellington-Halton Hills.
It doesn't matter that the Liberals scored 42% last election, they're not at the same popularity as then, especially with McGuinty's new budget. (either federal or provincial, you just can't trust the Liberals)
This riding goes CPC with 46% of the vote.
18/05/04 mini phreek
Email: mini_phreek@hotmail.com
ok the CHP is not running the nut case Gord Truscot in Wellington-Halton Hills, depending on who they nominate could dertermine who wins here, if they get a decent canadate they can draw up wards of 5%, if that hapands i think we might see this look similar to the 1990 ontario election in Halton North and a 3 way race, still early to tell, but this might be more interesting and complicated then originally suspected, just to let you know, the NDP won in halton north with 31% the family coalition (CHP Ontario) took 9% and who was the NDP candadate that won? Noel Duignan, how ever the northern part of the ridding, centre wellington is stanchly conservative, but is only 15% of the population ware Hallton Hills is 50% again this will be far to close to call well into the campain. and to make things even more complicated, the Liberal Bruce hood can only seem to talk about hockey and his record, that wont do well for him at the all candadates meetings. that leaves the CP with the advantage in centre wellington and the NDP with the advantage in halton hills.
18/05/04 Yukon Pundit
Email: [hidden]
Contrary to Andrew's comment, this is not Eves' riding, this is the southern end of Wellington and into Halton. While there is a strong conservative feel, it's not remotely close to the rednecks of the northern end of Wellington. Hood has a very good chance of keeping up Reed's tradition although his notoriety as a referee will probably count for just north of nothing. This will be an interesting one I'm not ready to call
11/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Is this not Ernie Eve's riding? If not, its pretty close. Pure blue Conservative mid-western Ontario. The combined PC/Alliance vote was high enough that I think they should win this by at least 1,000 votes. This is not a riding that I can see remaining Liberal. Even if the candidate is a referee.
01/05/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
I personally knew Marvin Howe, who was the Progressive Conservative MP (the former riding of Wellington-Huron) for decades until the late 1960's and he has noted the Tory strength of Wellington county (rural, many wealthy ranchers) that propelled him to election victories every time he ran. The new boundaries include a large quantity of his former riding, but also Halton Hills. The east side of rural Halton region is the more Tory side including Georgetown, and discludes the more bellwether Milton (on the west side). This will only help Michael Chong, and disadvantage the Tory chances in the riding of Halton. I would definitly put this in the top 15 Tory ridings in Ontario.
27/04/04 PFR
Email: webmaster@e-reich.org
Michael Chong will take this largely rural riding. He ran last campaign for the Progressive Conservatives in Waterloo-Wellington and finished stronger than expected. In addition he is well liked by former members of both the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. Chong has future cabinet minister writen all over him.
19/04/04 mini phreek
Email: mini_phreek@hotmail.com
well now that Noel Duignan has been confermed as the NDP candadate on april 3rd. this race just got that much more interesting. hes a strong candadate and will bleed votes from the wounded grits, making it almost cirenly a CP pick up. but i'm not going to call my own ridding before i see everyone thats on the ballot. the christian harratage party normaly feilds a candadate here as well as the greens who could take some of that NDP or PC suport seeing as they have an old PC member in there leader jim harris. and theres also the possibility of the progessive canadian party running here since it's so close a race. still a 2 way race, but who can take more votes away from those 2..
08/04/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I'm surprised there are not more Conservative predictions for this riding (compared to others I've seen in less winnable ridings). This seat looks like the clearest possible tory gain in the area. Mike Chong looks like a good candidiate (former PCer), and if 'mini phreek''s statement is true, having a good NDP candidate will just take away from the liberals. It is also interesting to note that 47.5% of the new riding is from Halton, where there was a high liberal vote last time for popular Julian Reed (in regarding the Transposition of votes), it may be more conservative than it looks, and may go conservative next election. I would not predict for sure as the campaign has not begun....
23/03/04 Steve L.
Email: [hidden]
Might be atight one, but the CP should be able to take this. There's a fair bit of support in the riding and they had a strong nomination process with a lot of involvement. One to watch anyway, with a good likelihood of a narrow Conservative victory.
18/03/04 mini phreek
Email: [hidden]
well this riding is a toss up between the grits and torys, a combined right-wing vote would have elected a conservative in 2000 but they have yet to see those kind of combined numbers in the polls. also the NDP candadate is a former MPP for halton and has a strong base in the Halton left wing vote and the Irish communites in wellington county. i would not expect the NDP to win here but they are not to be underestimated in this contest. the tory, mike chong is well known in Fergus but not across the riding. this ridding is way to close to call.
17/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Liberal on Life-support #1.
I would have called this "Dead Liberal Walking #11", with virtually the same vote profile as Perth-Wellington, but it's cobbled together out of four old ridings, and there's no real history to go on.
Liberal candidate and former NHL referee Bruce Hood will face a tough fight.
17/03/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
This new seat will probably go to the Conservatives. Halton Region is a traditional Tory stronghold as a whole, as is Wellington County. Many of the Halton/Wellington seats in the past were victim to the vote split and low voter turnout in 1997 and 2000. CPC gain.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster