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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:45 PM 6/25/2004

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5:13 PM 6/11/2004

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  • Feb & Mar 04
  • Apr 04

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    Olivia Chow
    Canadian Action canadienne:
    Tristan Alexander Downe - Dewdney
    PC Party/Parti PC:
    Asif Hossain
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    Tony Ianno
    Daniel Knezetic
    Nick Lin
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    Mark Viitala
    David Watters

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Parkdale-High Park (1.4%)
    Sarmite Bulte
    Toronto Centre-Rosedale (7.6%)
    Hon. Bill Graham
    Trinity-Spadina (91.1%)
    Tony Ianno

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    20,332 47.97%
    14,984 35.35%
    2,829 6.67%
    2,614 6.17%
    1,625 3.83%

    Parkdale-High Park
    (3/189 polls, 1014/72087 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

    Toronto Centre-Rosedale
    (19/212 polls, 5631/82890 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

    (185/202 polls, 67764/72858 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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    24/06/04 JP
    Email: Jason2003@rogers.com
    This election and this riding come down to a choice between two powerful emotions. The polls have the Grits and the Reform-Alliance in a virtual deadheat and ridings such as this will decide the balance. The Reform-Alliance campaign is driven by ANGER. Anger at the Ont Liberals and to a minor degree sponsorship. The response to this is FEAR which is a fear of Red Tories, Liberals, NDPersand others to a Conservative win. Does Anger win out over Fear?
    The factors of the high advance poll, usually a death sentance for the governing party, and the closeness makes this seem it will tilt over to the NDP. I found it interesting that the voting at the advance poll in Ontario is up 86% over 2000 much greater than other parts of the country and its here where people seem to fear the Reform-Alliance most so it could also be that people are afraid of Harper and have voted not to toss the grits but to STOP Harper.
    I have outlined my 8 reasons why I feel Ianno has the upper hand. The situation is very murky as each factor can be taken either way and as such I believe this riding will be decided by less than 500 votes. I am no longer sure as to how I would call this. I am certain that Harper will achieve a minority government of 117-122 seats and the Liberals will be between 108-114 and the NDP between 24-30. The Reform-Alliance is NOT a factor in this riding and as such its a bit harder to peg as the threat and that may cause rose coloured glasses amongst many who vote NDP not accepting that a vote for them is a vote for Harper. I have been asking people for more than two weeks and the only thing I am certain of isis from someone who is not present in our riding. I have being saying for about 2 weeks that this is close and frankly too close to call. The vote count will be less than 500 in the end.
    23/06/04 Jason
    Email: x_quoth_the_raven_nevermore_x@hotmail.com
    I lived in Newmarket up until last year. Imagine my shock and awe during this year's provincial election when I found myself in a neighbourhood flooded by neither Liberals nor Tories. The NDP has had this riding under its thumb provincially for years now. It took me three weeks before I could even find a competing party's sign, and even then, it was a Green sign.
    Federally, I see this as much more tenuous. Going purely by signs, Olivia sure has got a lot. Particularly in the Annex. But then again...so does Ianno. Being a relative new-comer to the riding I decided to do some research on Ianno. And found next to nothing. Except, that he was a quiet/sometimes not-so-quiet supporter of Martin, which meant that he was practically invisible during the Chretien years. I can't imagine his shattered ego when, after years of helping to prop up Martin's leadership bid, he was denied any sort of cabinet post. Poor, poor Tony.
    Chow, on the other hand has the advantage of being a practically universal name. Everyone knows her. And, for the most part, everyone loves her. People who are going to give her flack because she hasn't resigned her city council seat should perhaps take a reality check. Sure, Belinda Stronach gave up her lofty Magna International post to run in Newmarket, but when you already have more money than the entire African continent, you don't really need to worry about day-to-day expenditures. Chow is doing what absolutely anyone would do. You don't quit your current job before you find a new one. And, realizing the high scrutiny she's being subjected to, she's officially on leave without pay from City Hall.
    So, when it comes down to it, Olivia's going to win. Not by a lot. Her previous run for office showed that although she was popular, she wasn't popular enough to unseat the apathetic Ianno. The NDP on the whole is polling 50% better than it did in the last election, and the Layton factor will boost her significantly (although, some might contest that Layton's having a harder time in Toronto-Danforth than Olivia is in Trinity-Spadina). But all those old ladies who have voted Liberal for the past 30 years will still vote Liberal, even if their conception of the Liberal party in their heads (ie Trudeaumania) is as dead as Trudeau.
    18/06/04 JN
    Email: [hidden]
    To paraphrase the financial industry, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
    Tony has benefitted from Chretien's electoral sweeps in Ontario far more than his own abilities. As a Martin backer from way back, Tony had little chance of getting influencial posts from Chretien. To worsen these optics, when Martin took over the Liberal Party, Tony was still ignored in the last cabinet shuffle. A look at Ianno's last constituancy newsletter is extremely sparse on Tony's accomplishments but he sure takes credits for everything the Liberal Party has done. Given the mess with the bridge, it makes Ianno look ineffective and ignored in Ottawa.
    17/06/04 MSH
    Email: [hidden]
    I used to live in this riding and get there regularly. On the basis of two forays last week, south from Dupont along Spadina and along Bathurst, I think this one is still too close to call. I didn't do a careful count, but Ianno's signs seemed to be more numerous than Chow's. (The Conservatives are obviously wasting neither time nor money here.) Signs don't vote, of course, but three informants in the riding tell me they think it will be close, and that includes two NDP supporters.
    15/06/04 JP
    Email: Jason2003@rogers.com
    I predict the riding will be retained (by less than 500 votes) by Ianno based on the following:
    (1) The fact is that with the exception of Dan Heap no NDPer has ever held this riding. The basic area has been Liberal since 1935 with very few interruption's and this solid basically immigrant riding has sent Liberals to Ottawa for about 60 of the past 70 years. It sent Paul Hellyer from 1958 - 1971 as a Liberal. Peter Stollery represented it until 1980 In 1981 Heap took it for the NDP in a By-election after Stollery was appointed the the Senate and the by election was contested by very unpopular backroom boy Jim Couts. Heap was reelected in 1984 when the grits were tossed from office by Mulroney. Heap's second and third victory's were based mostly on his personal integrity and the desire to toss the grits in 1984 and their complete meltdown in the polls! The Trinity portion held by Aideen Nicholson from 1972 until 1984 was folded into Spadina that year and Aideen did not contest the seat. Ianno picked it up in 1993 and has held it since including against Cho! w. This long history in Grit hands translates to ADVANTAGE IANNO
    (2) The election is between Harper and Martin despite what Jack says and would like to think and while the desire to punish the Liberals is VERY strong the general public is concerned about The Reform-Alliance agenda. This is NOT the old PC's it was a take over by the reform and I think over the past few days and tonight during the debate this finally became crystal clear. This means despite the NDP poster child status of Olivia Chow she can hardly be viewed as a star, she cannot hold a candle to Jack Layton and just being married to Jack is not enough. She has a core vote going into this debate the Left Liberals and the Red Tories will decide this race as they are the 5-6% which will affect the outcome. Clearly the Red Tories inspired by Joe Clark are more likely than not to vote Liberal. The question is will left liberals upset at the treatment of Copps vote NDP. Yesterday I would have said this is the way it will go not sure now, so NO ADVANTAGE. However the need to stop Harper I think will make many of those left liberals return to the fold NOT because they love Martin but because they cannot stomach Harper so I think of the 5-6% in play here Ianno will edge out Chow -ADVANTAGE IANNO
    (3) During the last municipal election Olivia refused to say she would not run federally. She knew full well that she was and therefore mislead the electors of her municipal seat. I have also heard of some actions during the municipal campaign relating to the possible use of municipal staff for partisan purposes to support the mayor. While I may give her the benefit of the doubt as to she did not direct it, she was made aware but chose not to act. This will allow some NDPers to justify a defection to Ianno to stop Harper. They cannot stomach voting Liberal but given an excuse and the means they will hold their noses and vote Ianno and I feel around 6 or 7% of the NDP are in the this position and she will lose at least 20% of them to Ianno DISADVANTAGE-CHOW

    (4) This riding is very ethnically diverse with the Portuguese and Chinese making up a massive percentage. This should be seen as an advantage to Chow who has the ethnic card to play whereas the Italian community from which Ianno originates is a small fraction. This is only a fact if you accept people vote on ethnic lines. Consider that Rosario is Italian and so is Pantalone in your equation before you concede the ethnic card to Chow. I for one DO NOT believe that ethnic groups vote in block and the belief that every Chinese will vote for Olivia is both insulting and demeaning to her and the Chinese community -NO ADVANTAGE
    (5) Despite the fiasco in Ottawa with the sponsorship scandal the country is much better off today then 10 years ago. Remember Bill Clinton "Its the economy stupid" That said we still have one HELL of a long way to go be we are on the road. People may not like Paul Martin for his cuts and I refuse to even speak a certain Liberal Premier of Ontario's name for fear of becoming apoplectic, but most people seem to be coming around to the fact that Harpers numbers don't work and it would be Ontario's Budget all over again. People in Ontario had years of Mike Harris and to quote a MD I know "I cant afford anymore tax cuts, I am still paying off the ones Harris gave me!" I think people sensing they are going to get creamed in the wallets if Harper gets in will realize that NDP votes in Ontario where this will be decided only help Harper. In BC and the West a NDP vote is a smart vote. Ontario needs to stop Harper and I think every Red Tory, Grit and NDPer know this in o! ur hearts-ADVANTAGE IANNO
    (6)Ianno has the advantage of incumbency which always gets you around 5% and in a tight tight race both locally and nationally with so much at stake one cannot dismiss the fact with the brush of the hand because the NDP is up to 17%. Clearly Ianno's vote WILL drop again I feel down to less than 500 over Chow. I have seen Ianno on the streets and have heard he is canvassing by himself and trying to spend the time to get each and every vote. Chow on the other had is off with Jack and trying to ensure his victory over Mills. DO NOT underestimate the face to face meeting in the equation. People who actually meet and chat with a candidate are usually far more disposed to them one way or the other and with the polls and the fight coming down to Ontario and ridings like this that extra door per poll were Ianno shook that hand is the margin of victory. He is the incumbent he has the advantage of incumbency which any politico will concede is worth 5%-ADVANTAGE IANNO

    (7)The Alliance-Reform coupled with the PC's may add up as a single tally in the west and other parts of the country but I am not sure it can be said of Toronto. Most old Line PC's are still angry with MacKay for the selling out of the party to Harper. The Mike Harris/Flaherty group are gung-ho but the Davis/Robarts/Frost group who backed Clark and Mulroney are not among the gung-ho crowd. The sum of the parts is not equal and I think in Ontario and Quebec the Red Tory's will desert to other parties and the result is the Reform Alliance under Harpers new label will only get about 75% of the combined total. In this riding it means they will have to fight to get back their deposit! This means hundreds of votes possibly upwards of a 1000 will filter to Ianno and will help offset some of his losses to the NDP by Grits who are furious about the scandal and what was done to Sheila Copps. I think they are close enough that they may cancel each other out- NO ADVANTAGE
    (8) Finally I feel that people in Ontario and in particular in Toronto are very very pragmatic and will vote to preserve a centrist government and Toronto voters more so. They tossed out the PCs Provincially because that government made a fatal mistake not taking Toronto's strategic place into account. You lose Toronto you are in trouble, the only way Ianno can lose is if the polls here swing against the Liberals. People in Toronto realize that without a solid liberal wall in Ontario and Toronto Harper will achieve power. While an NDP seat is NOT a Harper seat directly it is by default. If the Liberals are stripped of the Ontario seats, Harper will be able to achieve a strong minority and will it seems make a pact with their Quebec "provincial rights" kin, the Bloc. Let us remember that Mulroney made a pact with this same group to bring them into the PCs by offering to devolve power to the provinces the same shtick as Harper. Harper is in fact a separatist in sh! eep's clothing. I think therefore about 10% of the NDP'ers, and a vast Majority of the Red Tories will got to Ianno and help stave off the loss of grit votes to the NDP. I also think some will vote green which is a 1/2 vote for Ianno -ADVANTAGE Ianno
    it could go on, but based upon these facts I believe Ianno will edge out Chow not because people love him, not because the Grits are gods gift to Canada but because people will realize what is at stake if the Grits shed too many seats. Ontario will decide the election and Trinity Spadina will also be a key to that decision as to a Harper or Martin Minority on the 28th.
    14/06/04 Robert
    Email: robertg93@hotmail.com
    I think this website is making a mistake by calling Trinity-Spadina at this time. This site tends to overstate the support for the NDP, based on people's hopes not facts. In the southern part of the riding where I live, the signs for Ianno run slightly ahead of Chow, and the rest of the riding seems a generous mix. Yes, I know, signs don't mean much. We have 2 weeks to go in this campaign and things can change a great deal. Based solely on the fact that the Liberals have knocked on my door twice already, I assume they are working harder this election (unlike the past three federal elections when I never heard from them). I would normally vote NDP, but I don't want the Liberals to be the second largest party. It looks like every seat is going to count.
    13/06/04 SEP
    Email: [hidden]
    The only reason Olivia Chow is spending so much time outside of the riding is because the NDP's internal numbers are showing she does not have to. Trinity-Spadina has long been viewed as an easier seat for the NDP to win than Toronto-Danforth, and Layton is up twenty points over Mills according to Ekos. It would be a shock if Olivia is not as high or higher. She almost beat Ianno in 1997 and today has greater fame due to Layton, there is also an NDP mayor in Toronto and the NDP is running on a platform tailor made for urban ridings just like T-S. Ianno has the added baggage of Liberal scandals and the general desire for change to deal with.
    12/06/04 Justin
    Email: [hidden]
    I dunno about calling this for the NDP just yet. I was travelling the riding, both in Chinatown and Portuguese areas of the riding....Ianno signs vastly outnumbered Chow's in BOTH areas. This at a time when the Liberals were tanking (latest nightly polls show that the Liberals are starting their slow road up).
    Friends of mine (actually left-wing Liberals) who have been canvassing for Ianno have been getting a great reception at the door.
    In my view, way too early to call for Chow.
    12/06/04 JP
    Email: Jason2003@rogers.com
    We are about to go into the debates shortly and the latest poll puts the Conservatives within government at 34/30. However the people who have suggested that the Con's will take this are in need of help. The only way they could win is if both Chow and Ianno are run over by a truck on the way to the polls, as usual they will be unlikely to get back their deposit. This is very very close its within 500 votes I feel based on my lengthy essay published some weeks ago. I suggested if people were afraid of Harper many would hold thier noses and vote liberal. I now feel this if a serious possibility. With two weeks to go I say Ianno by hair and a recount! Overall I offer the following Con's 101 seats (33 Ont), Grits 126 Seats (64 Ontario) 38 NDP and 44 Bloc. Lets see how things shape up and I will offer my opinion after the debates. Look forward to others offering up opinions and facts here (All politicals trying to push the party line please give it a rest!)
    10/06/04 Jake
    Email: [hidden]
    Chow is gonna win Trinity-Spadina, but not by a landslide as some die-hard New Dem's are suggesting. Still, Chow's local involvement and name recognition will come out on top of Ianno and his relatively silent and low-key backbench position.
    09/06/04 non-ndp insider
    Email: [hidden]
    As someone who is NOT doing canvassing and phoning for the NDP, and does not wish the NDP to win this riding, I am coming increasingly to the conclusion that this WILL be an NDP win. Their is a strong level of support for the NDP, meanwhile, virtually no one says they are going to vote Liberal! I suspect the conservatives will finish second because after the NDP, most people say they vote conservative. So I think it's time to move this from too close to call and in the NDP column.
    06/06/04 Observer
    Email: [hidden]
    I will try to be as factual and NPOV as possible.
    The race in Trinity-Spadina was generally considered to be a two-horse race between the incumbent Tony Ianno and Olivia Chow.
    Tony has held the seat for 10 years and survived a previous race against Olivia in 1997.
    Olivia is an extremely popular NDP councillor and is married to the NDP leader, Jack Layton.
    When the race started both of the above seemed very confident that they would prevail. However, the Ianno campaign has suffered from the general dissatisfaction that the voters are expressing after the recent scandals.
    Olivia, while free from any scandals, has suffered from mild voter outrage over her running in the Toronto Municipal election just last fall and now looking to leave for Ottawa. Rumours persst of problems in her campaign office. Additionally, she has been called upon to assist with her husband's campaign in Toronto-Danforth, since as the the party leader, he is required to campaign nationwide. Jack faces stiff competition in Toronto-Danforth from Liberal Dennis Mills and really needs to win this seat if he is to remain a viable leader.
    So, both contestants are facing handicaps but both consider themselves to be in the lead.
    So, what is going to determine the winner in this riding?
    Well, in this riding there are plenty of minor candidates to be factored in. With the Green Party, Marijuana Party, Progressive Canadian Party, Popular Democratic Party, Communist Party and Conservative all striving to steal votes away from the two primary contenders, who stands to lose the most from the dark horse candidates?
    The Greens aren't really on the political spectrum and will probably gets votes from both Liberals and NDPers.
    The Marijuana and Communists will probably get votes from people who wouldn't vote for a mainstream party anyway.
    The PDP are a splinter faction of the NDP, who will be lucky to get 100 votes.
    The Progressive Canadians might get some Liberal votes but are more likely to hurt the Conservatives.
    The Conservatives, hoping to improve on the measly 13% they got in the last Federal election, should be targetting the disgruntled Liberal voter who can't stomach the scandals and hate Olivia Chow.
    The current improvement in Conservative standings in Ontario won't give this riding to them as it hasn't elected a Conservative member in years.
    So in my opinion, this riding is still too close to call.
    05/06/04 JN
    Email: [hidden]
    Tony has two things to overcome, the federal Toronto Port Authority and his own trust fund. The TPA refuses to sign off on the Toronto Island bridge and thus makes the issue fester. The longer it lingers, the more ineffective the current MP looks in his own backyard. Possibly more damaging is the $260,000 personal trust fund Tony manages (more than four times the amount a candidate can spend during an election campaign). He claims (National Post, 29 Jan. 2003) that the contributions are for "political purposes" and the money "is all accountable". The problem is the fund is accountable to Tony Ianno and not the electorate. It is unreceipted and not covered by federal election fundraising laws (see Toronto Star, 31 May 2002). Tony has further claimed the funds were raised to avoid paying the yearly fees imposed by the federal and provincial Liberal parties on fundraising.
    03/06/04 Mr. Henderson
    Email: [hidden]
    I think Olivia is going to have a hard time winning this riding.
    I am a volunteer, doing some canvassing and sign placement in this campaign.
    We are meeting a lot of voters who are not happy with her. A lot of them have voted for in the Toronto election, many even voted for her in the '97 election. They are concerned with her one-note fascination with the Island bridge. They are concerned with her abandoning a position of power in the Metro Council. Here she gets results, in Ottawa she will just be a small fish in big pond.
    Can't really comment on the morale in Olivia's campaign office, haven't spent enough time there to get a feeling about it. Heard that some staffers left in a huff, not sure why. Maybe some of them can't work with the Head Office folks who seem to micro-managing her campaign.
    The only bright note is that Tony and his guys seem to have given up. I seen three earlier Ianno campaigns and this one has all the momentum of the Titanic heading to the ocean bottom.
    My personal opinion is that the NDP might be throwing this race so the Liberals will throw Danforth and give Jack a seat.
    02/06/04 Anonymous
    Email: [hidden]
    I'm not sure which campaign the poster below is working on, but it's certainly not Olivia's. Everyone I've seen directly or indirectly related to the campaign has their morale level extremely high, as they're seeing the positive response from the community. It seems as if the manufactured meme of an premature transition is desperately trying to be sowed by the Ianno camp. N. Fruman, or Fatal Ruminate as he/she goes on other electoral punditry sites, poses as a Chow campaign worker. I think people can see through that schtick, and can see the imposter for who they really are. Your campaign's morale might be running low, but that's not the case with anyone actually involved with the NDP in this riding. The voters of Trinity Spadina know the positive change that Olivia brought to city hall, and they're eager to see the change that she can bring to parliament. A second place finish for Watters simply isn't in the card for this election; certainly not with the makeup of this riding. He'll trail a distant third behind Ianno and Chow, who will easily take the riding, if campaign morale, neighborhood support, and the community at large's participation is any indication at all.
    02/06/04 MSH
    Email: [hidden]
    Too close to call right now. If Tony Ianno's organization performs as it has in earlier elections, Olivia Chow will lose by one or two thousand votes. But she could win a narrow victory if some of the 2000 Liberal voters stay away this time or vote Green or Conservative. This one should be fun to watch on election night.
    01/06/04 N. Fruman
    Email: fruminate@canada.com
    As a campaign worker, I would like to think that this riding would be an easy victory for Olivia. However, door-to-door canvassing is showing that a lot of voters are displeased that she is running Federally so soon after winning the Municipal election.
    In addition, Olivia hasn't been spending much time in the riding. Why is she fighting with Dennis Mills instead of campaigning here?
    Morale in the office is getting lower, as it seems we are giving this riding to te Liberals.
    While I agree that Ianno doesn't seem to be actively campaigning, yet, we are getting an amazing amount of support for the Conservative candidate, David Watters. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes second.
    29/05/04 B.O.
    Email: [hidden]
    The redistributed Trinity-Spadina also takes in ALL of Olivia's city ward. So were she to receive all the votes she received in the municipal election again, it would be around 13000 votes right there. With the Liberal numbers lower than last time, plus extra add-on NDP votes from outside the muncipal result, it should be enough to beat Tony. She won't neccesarily receive every last vote that she received municipally, but the fact that all her ward is in the riding is yet another clear advantage.
    27/05/04 Watching Closely
    Email: [hidden]
    Time to call this one for the NDP.
    Ianno does not seem to have the same on the ground machine as he had last time. His sign "machine" is slow off the mark.
    Chow is getting national exposure.
    This is the best seat for the NDP in Toronto. Having Layton as leader has got to be worth one seat.
    Toronto press have been killing the libs over waterfront, island airport, and transit funding. - All issues Chow is identified with.
    The NDP own this riding muncipally and provincially.
    27/05/04 David C
    Email: penyberth@hotmail.com
    Libs in free fall and Jack is well liked here...Whether it means doubling the vote in each riding, or raising it 10 per cent for each riding, the added NDP support would put Chow over the top. Add to this her national profile and the fact that much of the NDP gain must come from Liberals. Tories have nowhere to go in TS but up and again, their votes would come from Libs who just can't bear to go all the way to NDP even as a protest: NDP 55 Libs 30 Cons 7 Greens 5
    26/05/04 Peter M.
    Email: [hidden]
    This is Olivia's riding. Unfortunately for her, it's also hers to lose.
    Tony Ianno's money, manipulation of Olivia's running for council issue, and some scattered ethnic voters and Green support will take this riding away from Olivia by just a tad.
    19/05/04 James Bow
    Email: [hidden]
    Compared to Jack Layton, Olivia Chow has what is quite possibly an easier run for Parliament. She came very, very close to winning the seat in 1997 -- at one point in the night, the CBC declared the seat for her, only to have Ianno's vote make a late run. The same may be true come election night 2004, but if enough voters in Toronto are in the mood for change, in this riding they'll come out in favour of Chow.
    19/05/04 J Poole
    Email: [hidden]
    I think the NDP vote in Toronto will be much stronger, and more concentrated than most people think. New Dems here have been dormant federally, mainly because of lack of motivation. These people are far more likely to vote for Jack Layton's NDP than an NDP led by anyone with the initials AM, from the far flung East or farther flung Yukon. T-S voters are small L liberals. It is more of a Bob Rae riding than a Howard Hampton one, and Olivia Chow will have the machine to deliver it. Advice to Layton, skip this safe seat on the tour, spend the day in Northern Ont.
    13/05/04 C. Hubley
    Email: [hidden]
    We shouldn't make this a conversation forum, so I'm entering a prediction, and then I'm done with this riding. Some comments I have to respond to: "Olivia Chow did run, and came within half the distance of beating Ianno that Valpy did." That's still losing. Matt Hammond is probably right that a hard Liberal 47% is going to be tough to overcome, and I agree completely that Olivia would need all those endorsements to win. If she gets them, I change my prediction to her. If not, the Liberals win.
    It's not fair to accuse Olivia of "knowing she was going to run federally" in November 2003. Since then so much has happened that it's hard to say that for sure - Jack Layton was obviously considering running in Trinity Spadina (where he actually lives) with Dennis Mills riding so high after SARStock. So in that case Olivia would not have run. That said, people unfair accuse politicians of lying all the time.
    The Toronto police scandal casts Olivia in a very good light: until she was forced off the Police Services Board she was the most outspoken critic of police practices.
    What makes Valpy a "clearly superior candidate" to a "metro and city councillor" is that the issues are totally different. The NDP has a sad tradition of turning effective municipal politicians into ineffective provincial and federal ones. That is the worst thing about monolithic party structures that treat the municipal as training grounds for federal; Jack benefitted from this system, but all told its a detriment.
    "Chow has far more environmental cred than Valpy," is something I've seen no real evidence for. There is a lot more to Green politics than just making "I love clean air and water" noises. It's a methodological thing, and it's participatory, and it's something Valpy seems to understand very deeply. Jack's "greening of the NDP" is skin-deep and not to be trusted; The NDP shows how green they aren't every time they advocate cutting taxes on gasoline or heating oil: they're against full cost accounting for energy.
    Personally I too would "like to think we're beyond the point where people with accents can't get elected," but face it, the federal House is full of dinosaurs, and it's hard to deal effectively with people on committees if you are an outsider ideologically, culturally, and in more obvious ways - a few people concerned about being heard in Ottawa might take this into account, especially when urban affairs are high on the Liberals' agenda.
    Against all that, "Chinatown is in the riding", and Toronto Island, and both of these should vote solidly for Chow. So it'll be close, but, I predict the Liberals still get it.
    12/05/04 Nick Boragina
    Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
    This riding has always been a close one, infact, it's been won by the NDP more then once. With a name like Chow running here, there's no question who will win.
    12/05/04 tr
    Email: [hidden]
    317 votes cast on the Toronto Island in the provincial election - 154 voted NDP. (48%)
    The waterfront condominiums (33,55,65,77,99 Queen's Quay and 10 Bay) are also now a part of Trinity Spadina and had 1465 votes cast - again, 154 voted NDP. (10%)
    Regardless of how communitarian, organized and motivated - the island doesn't help.
    11/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Olivia Chow didn't exactly get the best deal on redistribution...giving up a strip of good territory to Davenport and gaining some poorish polls from Rosedale and Parkdale-High Park...but she did gain Toronto Island...a very communitarian, organized and motivated community that should give her a very good majority in the coming election.
    08/05/04 Interested Observer
    Email: [hidden]
    There seems to be a great deal of wishful thinking on the part of a number of New Democrats about Olivia Chow's ability to win this riding. Firstly, she will need to explain why she bothered to run for city council in November when she knew she was going to run federally. If she wins federally that will end up costing the taxpayers money. Is her representation really worth the price? I think a number of voters will say no. Secondly, Tony Ianno may not have a high profile in the media, but he is active in the riding and has if nothing else a well-organised campaign which will be useful. He also has a number of contacts and favours to call on. I think Tony may as he did in 1997, pull a rabbit of the hat and win this one albeit barely.
    08/05/04 psephologist
    Email: [hidden]
    NDP gains this riding on a 7% swing from the Liberals. Does anyone think they won't achieve this in Toronto?
    08/05/04 Mull Mole
    Email: [hidden]
    Marto, this is a Federal election not provincial and politics being the "sport" it is shows that in every political party there is mix of left to right (authoritarianism to libertarianism) The NDP are sovereignist, consistently social-justice left no matter the business cycle or government in power , economically centre left to left which is in my mind "family values" in it's complete non-political meaning. Special education, the environment, a place at the table for the family business, food/shelter/education/employment initiatives period. My grandfather was a Christian CCFer in Ottawa during the 1930's and that core "Social Gospel" exists whether driven by "the spiritual" and or enlightened practical human decency.
    Olivia is sincere as a progressive leftie, true to the Modern New Democrat balance of the entreprenurial spirit/managed public sector framed within the Social Gospel movement of the past. Ms Chow is a blessing.
    06/05/04 Marto
    Email: [hidden]
    While my opinions are vastly different than Chow's - there is no way a woman with as much profile in this city as her isn't going to win this time around. IF nothing else her and Layton will make sure that NDP representations will continue to grow in this city (not that I think that is a good thing - I still remember Bob Rae)
    06/05/04 Initial
    Email: [hidden]
    Olivia Chow nearly won this riding last time 'round, and she has certainly become more prominent both locally and nationally. She has a huge potential to win this riding.
    None the less, it will be a slugfest.
    As one of the previous commentators pointed out, a strong accent can be a disadvantage is some ridings in this country. That is not a racist thing to say, it is just true. But I don't think it will come to play here. Firstly, Olivia's accent isn't particularily strong; she speaks clearly and articulates well. Secondly, many of Toronto's voters have a stronger accent than she does, and those that don't are so used to people who do that they probably wouldn't notice it on Chow.
    Tony Ianno has been a relatively invisible MP during his three terms in office. This is his election to lose. If the Conservatives play a role, it is taking votes away from Tony.
    My money's on NDP by 5-10%.
    06/05/04 Mull Mole
    Email: [hidden]
    The seat is Olivia's already. Ms Chow is tough, smart, decent and has a following from the Asian community, as well young professionals; let's not forget the families who saw her pitch in with the media/translation regarding outreach for "Little Ceclia". Olivia is no Mrs. "You Don't Know Jack!" Still, Jack looks great on her arm!
    06/05/04 Matthew Hammond
    Email: elektro_matty@yahoo.ca
    I was the Green Party candidate four years ago and was quite certain Valpy had the campaign locked up, otherwise an "on-platform endorsement" would have been useless. The 47% that voted for Ianno reflect a core of solid, unflinching Liberal support that cannot be toppled. Only an endorsement from Jane Jacobs AND David Miller AND local leaders in the Portuguese and Italian communities could change this. This is also the strongest riding for the Greens in the province which will impinge on an NDP win.
    06/05/04 Brad
    Email: [hidden]
    Checking the news this morning, I have discovered that Olivia Chow is now seeking the NDP nomination in Trinity-Spadina... a fact that is confirmed on her website. Though I am not originally from Toronto, I did live in the Bloor & St.George area for two years (which is part of Trinity-Spadina), and one thing I quickly discovered was that the people there absolutely adore Olivia. Throughout Toronto she tends to be one of those political figures most people either love or hate, but one thing that was made very clear to me was that the people of Ward 20 (which is roughly contained by T-S) unquestionably fall on the "love" side of that coin. Her claiming the NDP nod is a foregone conclusion, and in my mind so is her electoral victory here. Even if you don't trust my judgement as a resident of the area for some time, just look at the numbers... in the 2003 municipal election she claimed 13,867 votes. Her next closest competitor garnered a mere 2254. That aside, the NDP have traditionally done reasonably well here anyway. Some might be quick to point out that she did run here in 1997 and was defeated by Ianno (albeit by less than 5%), but those were different times. Since then her reputation on city council as a staunch and unapologetic advocate of all that is left-wing has solidified, and people love her for it. Her marriage to Jack doesn't hurt her either, as the two have developed quite a name for themselves as the socialist tag-team around city hall. The fact that both of them are now running will do wonders for increasing the NDP's perceived credibility in the 416 this time around, and the primary impact of that effect will be felt in this riding. Despite the fact that the election has not been called yet I do believe that the prediction of an NDP victory here is entirely in order.
    05/05/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Well the die has been cast and Olivia Chow is running. With NDP support in Ontario surging from 8% in 2000 to at least 20% this time, this riding is just about lowest hanging fruit in Ontario for the NDP. I predict a 7,000 vote margin for Olivia. maybe if Ianno plays his cards right he might get appointed to the Senate. Ianno was always a terrible fit for this riding. This is a very sophisticated riding with a lot of educated people. The Liberal hold here could have been cemented if their candidate were more of a crusading progressive Liberal who coulud appeal to urban intellectuals and opinion leaders. Instead, they put forth a grade Z ward healer like Ianno who is viewed as an embarrassment to the riding. Still its hard not to feel sorry for the guy. He spent so many years being a fart catcher to Paul Martin helping to undermine Chretien every step of the way. Yet, when the new cabinet was announced Ianno got NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH. Obviously Martin sees him as just as much of an ineffectual dunce as the people people in the riding.
    03/05/04 The Watcher
    Spring Peeper, Your analysis is way off. What makes you think the Conservative candidate will win Trinity Spadina?
    There's no substance in your analysis or reliable data to prove your justification.
    As for the others on Olivia Chow's accent. First of all, her accent is not a hinderance to the campaign of being a spokesperson for the residents of Trinity Spadina. This riding has a history of electing people to office whether they have an accent or not or either in the opposition benches. I don't know where you people get your facts from other then making general assumptions on what you don't know.
    In 1997, Olivia came within distance in knocking out Tony with less than 1000 vote difference. Valpy was a weak candidate who was an unknown product to the community other than to the people who live in the condo areas or the west and east Annex area who receive the Globe and Mail on a daily basis. But that does not mean they are your hardcore Liberal and NDP voters, other than your champagne Liberals and silver-spoon Socialists.
    The Conservative candidates in previous federal and provincial elections did not fit the demographics in the riding. New condo sections of the new riding does not guarantee a victory for the Conservatives.
    This race is goig to be tight between Olivia and Tony. The Conservative candidate is not a sleeper which some people might spin as coming up the middle. It's not going to happen.
    01/05/04 Hillcrester
    Email: s.minkin@utoronto.ca
    um... you might wanna check out the 1997 records, C. Hubley. Olivia Chow did run, and came within half the distance of beating Ianno that Valpy did. I don't know what makes Valpy a "clearly superior candidate" in your opinion to someone who's been metro and city councillor here since, well, longer than anyone has archeological evidence, but there seem to be 412 Trinity-Spadina voters who would tend to disagree. And I would think that Chow has far more environmental cred than Valpy, who's known less for "supporting a green shift" than for "being the globe's token left-wing monarchist". And besides, didn't you start your post by saying that the Green endorsement didn't make a difference?
    And I'm sorry, C. Hubley, but I really like to think we're beyond the point where people with accents can't get elected, at least in T-S. That part was just B-S. I heard we once even had a prime minister with an accent. Municipal elections seem to be more about "selecting a spokesperson" (as opposed to a government) than federal elections, and no one seems to mind Chow's accent then. Maybe because, oh I don't know, chinatown is in the riding? Some voters speak Cantonese too, you know.
    "A vote for the CCF is a vote for the Oriental."
    -Liberal Party election ad, 1936
    01/05/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Oh yeah, Olivia Chow's accent is so bad that she only got reelected with about 90% of the vote in the most recent municipal election - despite a well-financed Liberal hack running against her. Boy the Liberals must be getting pretty desperate to be using that quasi-racist canard!
    I should also point out that Olivia Chow only lost by 1500 votes in 1997. Valpy lost by about 4000. So, who is the stronger candidate? On top of that she has been that much more powerful and visible over the last six years than she was in 1997. This will go NDP and probably by about a 7,000 vote margin. If Chow was able to come within 1500 in 1997 when the NDP was at 11%, she will win easily with the NDP at about 18-19%.
    Tony Ianno can go back to rounding up busloads of "instant Liberal" old ladies in black dresses to stack nomination meetings.

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