Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Timmins-James Bay
Timmins-Baie James

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:01 AM 6/27/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:01 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Charlie Angus
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Raymond Chénier
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Marsha Kriss
Andrew Van Oosten

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Timiskaming-Cochrane (42.4%)
Benoît Serré
Timmins-James Bay (57.6%)
Réginald Bélair

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,748 54.49%
7,475 21.73%
5,755 16.73%
2,111 6.14%
318 0.92%

(95/186 polls, 26962/53190 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Timmins-James Bay
(127/185 polls, 36670/53829 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
21/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
NDP picked up over 33 per cent in this seat in 1997 when they were at 10 per cent overall. Tory and Reform were nowhere. With the NDP at or near 20 (26 in Ontario) this one is among the most likely.
15/06/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Two words: Kirkland Lake.
The people in this riding love Layton for having saved them from Toronto's garbage.
Combined with a strong NDP base and a strong candidate, expect the Dippers to pick this one up.
12/06/04 Michael Pat
Email: [hidden]
Greg M.'s point about the gun registry being a big negative for the Liberals is likely valid in this area - at least the rural and remote part of it - but I doubt it will be a big factor. Dromisky, the 2000 Liberal incumbent, paid the price for it in 2000, when he saw his majority hacked to pieces. I doubt it will sway many Liberal voters this time out.
Incidentally, Ignace isn't on Highway 11 (it's on Highway 17), and it's not even in this riding - it's part of the Kenora riding.
I see a three-way race here. NDP Rafferty did very well in the provincial election, upping the party vote by about 30%, and he's been in election mode ever since.
Leskowski is a great candidate - he works hard, and is running a decent campaign - but I don't know if the Conservatives can break through here. FedNor and the Community Futures organizations are likely 'corporate welfare' in the eyes of at least some Conservatives, but they are vital community building programs here, and Leskowski has had to fight hard to convince anyone the Conservatives will protect them.
A late arriving Christian Heritage Party candidate from the district is likely going to cost him several hundred votes, and that could be the difference.
10/06/04 R.G.
Email: [hidden]
Where are these so-called polls that you talk about where Van Oosten is in the lead. Were they taken on his cottage road out in Sesekinika? Show me the results or point me in the right direction. To say that he leads in 2 polls is a farce. The only poll that counts is on election day. So let`s sum things up. We have a conservative candidate leading in the polls. He`s a former staffer at Queen's Park who probably thinks that running will assure him a new job in Ottawa. We have an NDP candidate who is not well knows in Timmins who turns a poorly attended campaign stop by his leader into a sing-along. He also strays from his own party platform and calls for LEGALIZATION of marijuana during a health care news conference. And we have a proven community leader of more than 40 years and a former MP all vying for the same job. This is a no-brainer. Liberal with 50% of the vote in Timmins James Bay. Charlie Angus will get about 37 % with the conservatives running a distant 3rd.
08/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
A very close NDP-Liberal race. 8 per cent last time gave the NDP 21 in this riding. If 8 gives you 21, how much more do they get here when they are at 23 per cent in Ontario (IPOS) and 20 nationally (SES)? Charlie Angus is running as a well-known musician, publisher and activist. Gilles Bisson, NDP wins the provincial riding with ease.
NDP to win it in a three way fight.
07/06/04 Mike D
Its telling that, a few days ago, Jack Layton ventured into the far north of Ontario to visit Timmins. Its a little off the beaten path to be worth visiting unless you have a serious chance. Given an overall surge for the NDP in Ontario, this riding will favour a strong NDP candidate like Charlie Angus (especially with no incumbent).
06/06/04 A,S,
Email: adma@interlog.com
No, even if "they're candidate is great", the Conservatives aren't in the picture; they've been strategized away like nowhere else in Ontario outside of (or sometimes even including) inner-city Toronto and Windsor. The story here in recent federal/provincial elections has been straight Liberal vs NDP--and, now, what a fascinating contest: a blast from the obscure political past versus a musical folk hero who promises to be the Wendy Lill of 2004. (Too bad Layton didn't draw other dream candidates of this ilk; just imagine Steven Page running in Scarborough Southwest.) Even the Timiskaming-Cochrane parts are either more NDP-friendly or Charlie-Angus-issue-friendly. Yet I can just see Charlie Angus breaking our hearts by losing--or maybe not; but if he loses, the NDP's shut out of Northern Ontario, and perhaps all of Ontario outside of Toronto/Hamilton/Ottawa/Windsor, yet again...
06/06/04 Neil J.
Email: [hidden]
Two submissions saying that the conservative candidate will win here....what a joke!! In Timmins-James Bay it is either Liberal or NDP in both federal and Ontario elections. I live in this electoral district and know that Kyle Simunovic is working for the conservative candidate. Kyle thinks that the result will be much like that in Timmins-Chapleau in 1984 where Aurèle Gervais (PC) won but all three candidates had almost the same number of votes. This was only time a federal conservative won here in this traditionally Liberal and sometimes NDP (or CCF) region.
This year is nothing like 1984 for many reasons. The canadidate is not francophone, the new conservative party is too right wing for this area and many see Stephen Harper as another Mike Harris. The Conservative Party may do well in anglophone Englehart but in Timmins and probably most other bilingual communities will support Chénier in large numbers with high NDP support coming from the North Coast. I'm sure Charlie Angus will do quite well, but he does not seem to be well known enough to win. Chénier has already been an MP and will win more on his name than by his party.
M.L. (whoever that is, but I have an idea) thinks that most of the submissions so far for Timmins-James Bay have been from "party hacks." I think only a conservative "party hack" would actually be crazy enough to predict a conservative win in this electoral district!!! What is a "party hack" anyways??? Obviously most people who submit predictions on this website are interested in politics and likely involved in this election.....makes sense!
I will write more as election day approaches. But at this point here is my prediction: Chénier 41% Angus 39% Van Oosten 19% Kriss 1%
05/06/04 M.L.
Email: [hidden]
Time to change the prediction! Conservatives are ahead in Ontario and in a dead heat with the Libs nationally, 2 published polls in Timmins-James Bay have VanOosten well ahead of the other challengers. Looks like the electorate has had enough and is ready for a change.
Email: tojersey@yahoo.ca
Like Nickel Belt, this is a hard riding to call definitively at the outset of the campaign. Certainly the Liberals have the edge, but Charlie Angus' name recognition and local popularity (has *anybody* in this riding not been to a Grievous Angels concert or three?) puts the NDP into serious contention in a riding that *is* winnable for the Dippers (and if you doubt that, look no further than the office of longtime MPP Gilles Bisson). If the NDP wins one seat in Northern Ontario, this won't be it. But if they win two, the second will be either this or Nickel Belt, and if they win three, it'll be this *and* Nickel Belt.
27/05/04 KLK
Email: [hidden]
Still a no brainer......Ray Chenier is well prepared for the campaign trail and will retain the seat for the Liberals. NDP, will run second, Conservatives,third. Green Party will have little impact on the outcome.
27/05/04 R.G.
Email: [hidden]
Do you guys all really even live in Timmins James Bay? The Conservative campaign hasn`t even come off the ground yet. No signs. Office is not visible (is there one?). The NDP faltered out of the gate. Signs were slow popping up, although they`ve covered Timmins well by now. Yesterday, their candidate called a news conference on healthcare and spent more time talking about the legalisation of marijuana. The Liberal candidate is very visible having been attending events and office openings throughout the riding. He`s well respected and signs have started popping up on lawns all over town. Timmins James Bay is a no-brainer. Federally, it`s as Liberal as they come. The NDP will draw a bit of support due to help from their provincial counterparts, and the PC`s will not have a tremendous showing although, they will do better under a united party. Liberals will top the polls here with 49% of the vote.
23/05/04 M.L.
Email: [hidden]
I've just come across this site and after reading the submissions it has become painfully clear that most of the submissions thus far have been from party hacks. No one has brought up the fact that with the merger of the Alliance and the PC's and considering the riding boundary realignment, the Conservatives now come in second as per the 2000 election numbers. With the Conservatives starting to pick up momentum nationally, with all the problems the Liberals are having and with both incumbent's not running again, I'm confident that you'll see the Conservative VanOosten poll remarkably well. The NDP have to worry about the Green Party bleeding off votes and let's face it Jack Layton will never be Prime Minister.
However, it is obvious that the other parties feel they have a shot at this riding so I'm sure it will be an interesting race but the Conservatives could pull off an amazing coup both nationally and in Timmins-James Bay... don't count your chickens before the eggs are hatched!
19/05/04 Kyle Simunovic
Email: [hidden]
After much consideration. I think this will be real close. The NDP will not win defiantly not. I don't think Angus has enough recognition or ideas to win the riding. This riding went conservative in 1984 and i think it will again this time. I think it will be neck and neck with all three and the green party eating the dust. The conservatives have a hard fight....but they're candidate is great! People will meet him and decide to vote for him in the election. Personally I think this one is two close to call....coudl be NDP, Liberal, or Conservative....I think the rating needs to be changed!
15/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Another Laurentian/Canadian Shield riding (although not as Manitoba-ish as Kenora) in Northern Ontario with a Grit MP and a Dipper MPP, Timmins-James Bay is shaping up to be a great two-way dogfight between the Liberals and the NDP... both will probably win over 40% while the CPC will be struggling to to win back their deposit.
The demographics favour Angus, while name recognition keeps Chenier very much in the race... this one should be close either way (open seats sure are fun sometimes!)
11/05/04 Sam
Email: sparky_eh@yahoo.com
I have never voted NDP before but I met Charlie at a spaghetti supper and he really has a vision for this riding and its youth. I think if he meets alot of the voters he will win. Everyone I talk to in Kirkland Lake is really excited about him.
08/05/04 Todd
Email: [hidden]
I am convinced that Charlie Angus will win this one for the NDP. Charlie is a popular author, musician and magazine producer who grew up in Timmins. However, Charlie is best known for his work in stopping Toronto garbage from coming north to the Adams Mine.
While Chenier has some support in Timmins (as with Charlie), the choice in all the other communities (Cochrane, Iroquois Falls, Kirkland Lake, Englehart, Earlton and others) seems to be 'which non-liberal should I vote for, the tory or the new democrat'? Charlie will do extremely well everywhere outside of Timmins and hold his own in Timmins itself.
04/05/04 none
Email: [hidden]
Charlie Angus won the NDP nomination a couple weeks ago, and this makes the riding very winnable. Angus was a leader in the movement to keep the Adams Mine from becoming a Toronto dump, and enjoys considerable popularity. This is one of the most winnable seats for the NDP in Ontario, more winnable than Danforth, or even Ottawa Centre.
13/04/04 Watt Tyler
Email: [hidden]
This seat is held by NDP stalwart Gilles Bisson provincially, and has had NDP representation in the past. With a retread Liberal on the ballot and the "Paul Martin" Party on the skids, this becomes a very strong pickup possibility for the NDP. There are two candidates for the New Democratic nomination, the 2003 provincial candidate in Temiskiming-Cochrane, and activist Charlie Angus -- either would look better than the Liberals right now.
07/04/04 R.G.
Email: [hidden]
This is a no brainer. This is a very Liberal riding and will certainly go Liberal once again.
The Liberals are well respected in Timmins James Bay and should walk away with this one quite easily.
I see the NDP have a nomination fight going. Although a nomination meeting will draw more publicity to the party, it will do little to help the NDP here federally.
16/03/04 Kyle Simunovic
Email: kyle.simunovic@onlink.net
Our liberal candidate this year is a well known local Ray Chenier, he was MP here about 15 years ago for 3 terms. It woudl be extremely likely for him to loose. People up here vote for the person not the party and he is well known and has lots of contacts. I hate to see him win but he will!

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster