Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:11 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:09 PM 6/27/2004

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Josh Cooper
Benjamin Fitzerman
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Lloyd Helferty
Simion Iron
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Susan Kadis
Rick Morelli

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Thornhill (100.0%)
Hon. Elinor Caplan

2000 Result/Résultats:
26,771 64.58%
6,542 15.78%
6,273 15.13%
1,614 3.89%
253 0.61%

(177/177 polls, 73662/73662 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 YukonPundit
Email: YukonPundit@yahoo.ca
While this will be a much tighter race, the Conservatives would likely need an Ontario landslide (40%+) to pull this one off and that's not likely to happen.
The 1st and 2nd generation immigrant community in this area is likely to stick Liberal and stay away from Harper although not to the same extent they fearfully avoided Stockwell Day. Keep this one with the Libs.
22/06/04 Debate Attendee
Email: [hidden]
I went to the All Candidates Meeting on Monday and it was very interesting to hear from all 6 candidates. I would say that all the candidates did fairly well except Mr. Iron and Ms. Kadis. It was very difficult to understand Mr. Iron and he didn't present himself very well. Ms. Kadis started with confidence but ended very flustered after trying to dodge questions about the sponsership scandal and getting a lot of critism from the audience. There really was no winner but the other candidates did fairly well, especially Mr. Fitzerman and Mr. Cooper. Cooper was very confident all the way through and responded with good answers. Fitzerman got a lot of support and almost stole the show with his frusteration with not being able to answer the questions. In the end, the majority of people who attended came in knowing who they would support and thier minds didn't change. The only major question is how many people, who were split between Liberals and NDP, decided to vote Liberal after seeing Kadis poor performance.
I put conservatives as my prediction since the race is very close and it doesn't look likely the liberals picked up many votes.
21/06/04 The Insider
Email: [hidden]
This will be the KEY Riding. Thornhill is like that kid in school which follows the cool kids decisions. If the Country goes Liberal, so will Thornhill. Susan Kadis is very well known, but her campaign has been awful. She hasn't aggresively done door canvassing, and she isn't riding on Caplan's popularity as she was hoping. Josh Cooper might sneak through. Hey, maybe Irons will get it. Love the signs.
18/06/04 Corey
Simion Iron is an independant with WAY too much spare money. He has no chance of getting more than 2 or 3 percent.
There's another candidate, Ben Fitzerman who seems pretty good, basically a small 'L' liberal (as in- same social values, not party affiliated) but again, independants don't stand a chance in Thornhill..
My official prediction:
NDP- 10%
Green- 5%
Various Independents- 3%
Kadis will take it mainly because of the fear people have of a Conservative government and the recent reminders of Mulroney and Harris's screw ups.
16/06/04 DB
Email: [hidden]
Who is Simion Iron? Apperently an aggressive independent candidate with plenty of money (judging by the colourful signs he has) has popped up signs across Steeles, Bathurst, Clark and other arterial streets I am sure. I can only forsee him as appealing to apathetic voters in Thornhill who are either tired Liberals (who can't vote Conservative) or those who do not vote at all. I see him syphoning off some votes from Kadis but not much. As for Josh, he is doing well for a first-time candidate. Are we to assume that those with Kadis signs on their lawn are truly voting Liberal? Many people I have spoken to who have her sign have indicated to me that they are not voting Liberal but are afraid of getting a fine if they remove the signs. As for Josh, I hear he got permission from all the lawn sign locations he has. Even if you take all Kadis signs as legitimate, the slight edge should go to Josh where in some streets, the margin is about 5-1. Very few neighbourhoods are dominated by Kadis signs. This riding is turning blue on June 28th.
16/06/04 paul
Email: [hidden]
I think people should stop talking about religion being a factor when voting for the Liberals or Conservatives. If any Jewish voter is going to consider religion, they will vote for the indepedant who has signs all over the place with the star of david right beside his name. Other than that, people will just look at the individual parties. Elinor Caplan's popularity got a lot of votes for the Liberals, but this time around, that's all gone with her departure. In it's place is a lot of angry feelings about McGuinty's broken promises and Martin's sponsership scandal. Right now, the polls suggest that the Liberal's spiral will continue and the result could very well mean a Josh Cooper victory.
16/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
The riding has changed since its Tony Roman and Barney Danson days. Thornhill is a town which now only exists on paper with the post office and federal/provincial elections offices. It was carved up to Markham and Vaughan and given no hospital, no town hall, and left with no real centre. Wealthy and rootless. This plays out in making this the ultimate swing riding. But I still do not think it can swing enough, as Stock Day only got 15 per cent last time. It would take a massive, huge shift to the CPC to do it. It won't happen. Plus this wealthy riding is one of the worst in the province for the NDP. Predict: Lib 45 CPC 40, NDP 8 Green 4
15/06/04 Drae
Email: [hidden]
This will be a conservative win. Cooper and Kadis are almost even in the Vaughn part of the riding, but Cooper is blowing her away in the Markham part which is usually the kingmaker )Tina Molinri tied Mario Rocco in Vaughn but got blown out in Markham causing her lose by the close margin she did). Cooper has been focusing on this part and that will put him over. Kadis also has no name recognition on the Markham side as she only represented Vaughn on council. Her only hope is for a massive swing back in the polls for the libs, but thanks to Dalton thats not going to happen!
Yes, the Liberals are sinking and the Tories are going up in Ontario...but given that the Liberals got 65% here in 2000 (well above their 51% in Ontario), I'm almost certain it will stay Liberal. Unless the Liberals go down to 15 seats or less in Ontario, a highly unlikely outcome.
Someone made a point that the Cooper campaign isn't running as a representative of the (rightwing minority element of the) Jewish community, but for all groups in Thornhill. I don't know if it's true, but it's got to be true if Cooper wants to win, which almost everyone thinks he does - he's certainly been at it long enough! By the way, Thornhill is probably close to 45% Jewish now (if one includes those who say no religion - although they're more prevalent in St. Paul's and Trinity-Spadina than Thornhill), 25% on the Markham side, approaching 60% on the Vaughan side, according to 2001 census figures. Cooper will in fact probably do better on the Markham side and better among non-Jewish voters than Jewish voters in the riding.
For example, a poll recently showed support for the Conservatives has gone up a very credible 25 percent among Catholics. It seems evident that 905 Catholics (the largest group of which is Italian-Canadians) overall voted for the Harris revolution at a higher rate than did Jews. Like most ethnic groups, Jewish and Italian Canadians have been big Liberal voters. But with these groups now being overwhelmingly native-born now, other factors come into play. There's no Italian-Canadian issues that play an important role in Canadian elections. So while many will remain Liberal, Italian suburban economic conservatives and Catholic social conservatives may shift to the Tories. In terms of the Jewish vote on the other hand, have 2 distinct factors at play: Middle East policy and a second, cultural issues. While there are certainly signs that Jews are growing more conservative on economic issues and foreign policy, every pollster and social scientist familiar with Jewish political attitudes will tell you that Jews remain very liberal on cultural questions such as abortion rights and gay rights, probably the *most liberal* of all ethno-cultural groups. Now these issues are in the election debate, and as much as Stephen Harper and Josh Cooper and so on try to say they're "libertarians" and "want the government out of people's lives" and how people like the health critic don't "represent the views of the party" and so on, these issues are going to scare off a lot of voters, especially Jewish voters.
09/06/04 SRB
Email: [hidden]
Do any of you honestly think that people in this riding are voting for anything other than a specific party? Few in the riding are paying attention to the debates, or the candidates for that matter, within the riding. "Winning" or "losing" a debate in in front of a high school audience or on the local Rogers channel is a total non-factor in a riding like this. The fact is, neither candidate has much of a profile in the minds of Thornhill voters beyond their names appearing on lawn placards. My suspicion is that both parties knew that this is a riding where voters relate more readily to the parties than local candidates and thus didn't waste any charisma here in terms of the candidates proferred.
I think you'll see a slim majority for the Liberals here as elsewhere in the inner 905 area.
07/06/04 St. Paul's Refugee
Email: [hidden]
I can't believe nobody is talking about how badly Susan Kadis performed at the high school "debate." Apparently many of the questions posed by the students proved to hot to handle for Kadis, so much so that the principal had to ask some of the more ardent questioners to back off. The whole situation was too much for Tory Rep Michael Mostyn to handle as he tried to contain his laughter at the situation.
Kadis will certainly have a lot to prove at the all-candidates meetings. For her campaign its lucky more people havent heard to the high school meltdown.
06/06/04 Robert Vaughan
Email: viandefumee@yahoo.ca
Isn't interesting how quickly things have changed. Right after the call, my whole neighbourhood was covered with Kadis signs. interesting that about half have vanished. They haven't switched to Cooper signs...yet. But you know, in this riding, I dont think this is a reaction to Martin, but a reaction to Kadis.
05/06/04 Stevo
I don't know where on earth Corey came up with that "Jews don't vote" assertion, because it is patently false. As any pollster or individual who knows anything about voting patterns among different demographic groups, Jewish Canadians in fact have a significantly higher rate of voting than the Canadian electorate at large. I would also like to repeat a point I've made several times already: Jews do NOT vote for Canadian political parties based on the party's stand (or perceived attitudes) towards the State of Israel. I would like nothing more than for the Conservatives to take Thornhill, but I find that people on this board tend to make predictions based on who they WANT to win rather than on who they realistically think WILL win. I can't see Thornhill going from a 65% Liberal majority in 2000 to a Tory win this time around. It is, however, the most likely riding in the "inner" York Region (Markham and Vaughan being the other two that border Toronto) to yield a surprise Tory win on election night, but I wouldn't bet on it.
04/06/04 Not-Non Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Kadis is out of her depth. She is a so-so councillor, but can't articulate a clear vision (maybe there is no clear Lib vision this time) for Thornhill. Cooper has tons of resources and workers and is simply a better performer. Lib Italian support is evaporating here as elsewhere. If they sit on their hands, as I expect, Kadis is toast.
04/06/04 Vincent
Email: motherdo4@hotmail.com
Did anyone out there actually see the debate that Cooper missed? Kadis couldn't answer a question, embarrassing herself, and Mostyn, an inexperienced candidate, had no problem. Cooper will have enough chances to put this thing away with the debates that are already scheduled. By the time this campaign is over, no one will care. (And resorting to name-calling Jeffrey, like 'loser', is a sign of a Kadis campaign in desperation. Certainly, we can talk about issues, can't we.)
Also, the way things are going federally, Cooper's campaign gets stronger just because of how the leaders are doing.
As for Jews voting in a block, I don't think that's ever been an issue for Cooper. No one in his camp is assuming that Jews don't think independently. This is about working and helping in the entire community. Thornhill is east of Yonge Street too. The Cooper campaign is picking up steam.
03/06/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Nice try but no dice Jeffrey. Rehashing a misleading Kadis pressrelease on the Youth Vote townhall won't fly. The Conservatives sent their youngest candidate in the GTA to the townhall (Michael Mostyn - York Centre), the Liberals sent a fifty-something Susan Kadis. Who do you think is more in touch?
02/06/04 jeffrey
Email: [hidden]
What a loser Cooper is. He doesn't attend a town hall meeting for students at Westmount Collegiate located in Thornhill. His party thinks so highly of him they send another candidate to debate Susan Kadis in his own riding of Thornhill and his leader visits York Region and doesn't even go Thornhill.
02/06/04 Corey
Ok, people here seem to be preoccupied with the number of signs people have out. While signs give a small indication of support, they are by no means the be all and end all of the election.
I still say the riding is going Liberal (despite my disgust with Paul Martin) though it'll be the closest Thornhill has seen in a long while.
In terms of Jews voting en masse, anyone living in Thornhill knows this is what happens. However, this time around, there's two problems.
1) Both major candidates are Jewish and involved in the Jewish community
and then there's the problem that candidates in Thornhill have always had to deal with:
2) The jews in Thornhill usually DON'T VOTE.
this has been a problem for all the major candidates in Thornhill, and the reason Kadis lost the provincial Liberal nomination, its next to impossible to get a large number of Jews out to vote.
As for the Liberal habit of voting against Israel at the UN, I think it will play a factor, but not a huge one, there haven't been any largely publicized votes lately.
28/05/04 Right Said Fred
Email: [hidden]
Nevermind the tiresome exchanges on how the Jewish community will or won't vote strategically based on the Israel issue. Forget about the 1997 and 2000 elections, there is a new reality in play. Elinor Caplan is gone, and there are 2 new faces competing for the grand prize, making the race somewhat even.
This riding will vote with the rest of the 905 belt. Based on the most recent polls indicating the Tories at 35% or better in Ontario, this riding is now in the Conservative column.
27/05/04 John Vaughan
Email: [hidden]
Like most Canadians, I'm not a fan of the Liberals. Conservative and NDP supporters have been putting postings for all sorts of ridings with outrageous predictions saying their party can win there - like the NDP in Etobicoke Lakeshore. But on the balance Conservative supporters have been putting up the most ridiculous posts (like Vancouver Center - one of the weakest showings for the Alliance in 2000 - while CPC support in BC is way below that of the Alliance 4 years ago), and Thornhill probably takes the cake for the most outlandish predictions.
The Canadian Jewish News has an article about the calling of the election. Martin is perceived as far more pro-Israel than Chretien. And this is what the article says about about "realignment":
"But are Jews eager to punish the Liberals for their voting record in the UN and their stance on Israel?
It doesn’t seem likely. After all, Jean Chrétien was handily re-elected in 2000 just as his government was being excoriated for supporting a United Nations resolution that condemned Israel for excessive force against Palestinians."
The whole article is available in the May 28 edition of the CJN, www.cjnews.com
It goes on to say Kadis MAY face a "stiff challenge" from Cooper, but that hardly implies a likely Cooper victory.
25/05/04 Vincent
Email: motherdo4@hotmail.com
Well the signs are out, and I guess community involvement may actually make a difference. Hey 'full name' and Jeffrey, you two brought up Chabad and Hockey in the first place, and now you say it doesn't matter!!
There are real issues here, and we have had terrible representation for years. This area is ready to go 'Cooper', and the signs are showing exactly that. By the way, Commissioner or Convenor, that has nothing to do with the fact that he's a community guy, and we need one of those. The tides are turning.
25/05/04 Doron
Email: doron_19@yahoo.com
I think you better switch Thornhill into a lightning bolt. This one should be designated as too close to call. I am putting up signs for Josh Cooper and people are snatching them out of my hands who are not on my list. Most of these are on the Vaughan side that Kadis needs in order to win. We have plenty of signs there. This one should be at least a too close to call.
24/05/04 Vincent
Email: [hidden]
Cooper's signs are filling up the area quickly. It's interesting how many people actually want a candidate they know personally - one who has helped them.
By the way, Jeffrey, talking about facts, do you have a real source from the Hockey Association, or is this the same 'source' who works at Chabad Flamingo? Who are these people?
I have seen Cooper at both places quite often, and long before the campaign started. Commissioner/Convenor - that's not the difference in who will represent us the best. Let's keep our eye on the ball.
24/05/04 J. Cherniak
Email: jason_cherniak@yahoo.ca
Contrary to the uneducated belief on this board, Jewish people do not vote in a block. Last election, Canada voted against Israel in the UN during the campaign and Caplan still won hands down. There will be some Jews (10%?) who vote Conservative for foreign policy reasons, but the vast majority will follow the same Liberal trend as the rest of the GTA.
23/05/04 DM
Email: [hidden]
Judging from the first day, Josh Cooper has far more signs than Kadis. She has some concentrated in her city council ward, but Cooper is outpacing her overall in Vaughan and he has blanketed Markham with his signs, while Kadis is nonexistent.
23/05/04 Paul L.
Email: [hidden]
This race is a difficult one to call. The Liberals and Conservatives have got two virtually unknown candidates that are unfimiliar to the general public. This being said, one of those candidates has been campaigning for a few months already. Also, this time around, almost all votes will be cast based on party recognition and not being named Elinor Caplan. Now, since most cringe when they here the word "Liberal", the Conservatives have the advantage but it's no landslide. To be fair, you have to factor in the experience of the Liberal's campaign team and this could make the race very close. Of course, this factor hasn't come into play yet, so the advantage has to currently go to the Conservatives or at the very least make the prediction too close to call.
23/05/04 Aaron K
Email: [hidden]
I live at the entrance of a new subdivision in the northwest corner of Thornhill, and have now been visited by both candidates at the door. Lets just say that Susan Kadis left a lot to be desired, coming across as a lightweight. She knew little about anything. Josh Cooper was friendly enough, and pretty unorthodox (funny guy) at the door. He seems to have more gravitas about him. On personalities alone, I think he has an advantage.
23/05/04 full name
Email: [hidden]
Vincent, if you think it matters how often Cooper prays or goes to hockey games you're out of your mind. With the new poll out showing 40-27 Liberals in Ontario and with Caplan carryimg over 60% of the vote in 2000 Thornhill seemingly looks like a sure bet to go red again. However as someone who has lived in Thornhill my whole life even I can admitt that this year it's different. The difference in local candidates is staggeringly large in Cooper's favour and the NDP will be much stronger under Layton to take over 10%. If us Libs can't see that the Israel issue is going to kill us in a riding largely comprised of jews then we are fooling ourselves. Unforntunately, unless Liberal support in Ontario rises over 45% I will say Cooper 45% Kadis 43% NDP 11%.
17/05/04 jefffrey
Email: [hidden]
Vincent get your facts straight. Cooper is not the commissioner of the hockey league he is a covenor. I have been told by members of the hockey association that he doesn't even go to games but is using it as a political tool to use in his brochure. I have also been a member of Chabad Flamingo since it's inception and Cooper has never gone there for any events or on the Sabbath, he started going when Susan Kadis became the Liberal Candidate, just a coincidence, I don't think so. I repeat what I said last week, Cooper former Campaign manager who lives in Thornhill left his team and went to work for the Conservative candidate just below Steeles ave.
15/05/04 Corey
Email: [hidden]
Ok evan, sorry I forgot to respond to this in my last post:
1) Elinors machine is not gone, in fact, it has ALL gone to back Susan, and I mean ALL of it, so she is much much more established than Cooper could possibly be. Even after a whole year of campaigning.
2) The only reason Susan lost the provincial nomination is because ALL liberal nominations are seriously screwed up (this coming from a party member). Her losing the nomination does not reflect her capability as a candidate. And even then, he didn't "steamroll" her, she lost by 200 votes. Hardly a "steamroll"
3) Susan is known, respected and valued for her service to this community. Cooper is relatively unknown and a former member of the Alliance, this will only hurt him.
In short, he doesn't have a chance.
15/05/04 Corey
Email: [hidden]
See the thing is, Even though Cooper HAS been campaigning for 6 months, the only recognition he has is that he's really really desperate to win.
And why did Tina almost win her seat again? Because most of the LIBERAL party didn't want Mario Racco at Queens Park! Racco did not represent the core liberal voters in Thornhill. Susan Kadis does.
I'm not denying its going to be close, if just because of the stupid sponsorship thing, but there is no doubt htat Susan will win.
Oh, and for that guy with his "sources" in the Kadis campaign that tell him they're doing poorly.
All i have to say is "ha" I'd check your sources again buddy. I'm IN the Kadis campaign and we're doing many things, but "badly" is not one of them
/05/04 Vincent
Email: motherdo4@hotmail.com
Let's try looking at things realistically. Where is the truth here?
Cooper has been in this riding for years, and put a ton of time in long before the campaign. Let's think about this, Jeffrey, he's been the hockey commissioner for years. That's long before this race started, and he was chair of a local preschool a few years ago also. Why would you not want someone who's been contributing for years to represent us. He's a rare kind of politician, one who actually earns the respect of the community through integrity and hard work, not by cheap lies.
By the way, he still has the same campaign manager as always, and does anyone really believe that he would try to get votes at an Orthodox Synagogue on Shabbat? At least try to make up stuff people would believe.
/05/04 Alex Ersken
It is odd that so many believe that a riding like Thornhill (a notably Liberal-stronghold) would shift Conservative. It seems many posters seem to be basing a Cooper victory on the Jewish vote. It is true that many Jews have made a slight shift to the right, but that should be corrected with the insertion of Paul Martin. He represents a shift to the right in Liberal policies and should correct for the right swing Jews have taken in the GTA. In addition to this, the Tory-Alliance Party has left many former Tories with discomfort at the now overly-conservative, Harper. Thus causing them to vote Liberal.
To the question of the government corruption that will undoubtedly be an issue this coming election is simply that it cannot outway what many see is good in the new Prime Minister. To say it simply he was not the man at the head of set scandals. This is a fact that will make it much easier for the average voter to look past what the Cretien government and re-elect deserving Liberals.
12/05/04 Mike S
Email: [hidden]
Too bad there is no reality check on here.
In no particular order:
-Joe Clark's 1979 promise to move the Canadian Embassy to Jerusalem is actually widely credited with his SUPPORT from two Jewish Toronto-area ridings (what would now be the around Eglinton-Lawrence/St. Paul's area). His breaking of that promise (when Robert Stanfield was commissioned to tell Joe exactly how to break it) is credited with his losing those same ridings a year later. I know some people (not exclusively Jewish, incidentally) who never voted for Clark again because of that.
-All political parties have their elections/conventions over weekends. So Josh Cooper was at a convention on a Saturday? Big deal. No one in the orthodox community is under any illusion that Josh Cooper is orthodox. It's a non-issue, brought forth by people who clearly have no idea what's going on.
-That Tina Molinari nearly held on to Thornhill in 2003, despite a disastrous local and central campaign suggests that something might have been up. Hmm, wonder what that could be? What changed from 1999 - when the Jewish community voted overwhelmingly Liberal - to 2003? Think the Jews might have considered voting Conservative? Think anything changed federally from November 2000 to today?
The big question, of course, is "how desperate is Susan Kadis getting?" Formerly rock-solid Liberals are now wavering, if not going outright to Cooper. I understand that the latter is a trend across a lot of GTA ridings- people aren't necessarily committing to voting Conservative or NDP (a non-issue in Thornhill), but are definitely getting softer on their Liberal candidates.
It won't be a landslide, but Cooper will win.
12/05/04 jeffrey
Email: [hidden]
Hey DM you'll be glad to hear that once the election is called the Glen Shields area and the whole Dufferin corridor is Liberal Red. In fact so is the majority of Thornhill on the Vaughan side including the Jewish areas of the riding.The Kadis camp has so many sign locations I hear they just ordered another large amount of signs for the Markham side.
11/05/04 DM
Email: [hidden]
Susan Kadis campaigned recently in Glen Shields, the most Liberal area of the riding. According to my sources inside the Kadis campaign it went very poorly, with many previously identified Liberal supporters refusing to take lawn signs.
08/05/04 jeffrey
Email: [hidden]
Desperation in the Cooper camp.I hear his campaign manager dropped out a couple of weeks ago and was just replaced.I wonder why? He's now hanging out at Chabad Flamingo Synagouge on Saturday mornings begging for support. My my trying to get political support on the Sabbath.
07/05/04 Stevo
Sorry folks, this riding is staying Liberal. If Tina Molinari had trouble holding onto it, given her extensive work with the riding's Jewish community and her relatively effective performance as a rookie MPP, AND facing an unknown Liberal, then there is little chance for a Conservative win here at the federal level. As we all know, Jewish people vote for parties or candidates based on a whole myriad of issues, just as all Canadians do. It is merely a simplistic fiction that they vote solely based on Jewish issues or party attitudes towards Israel. One should also mention the large Asian and Italian communities in the riding who traditionally vote Liberal, and will do so again this year. Liberals to hold.
01/05/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Josh Cooper has been campaigning for 6 months already?
Wonder if he has built a name recognition in the riding?
29/04/04 Corey
Email: cshefman@hotmail.com
The problem with Cooper is that he's been campaigning for so long now, he's bound to run out of steam, for the past 6 months, he's been acting like he IS the MP. A while ago he tried putting up pre-campaign signs in the riding with his name and in big letters "JOSH COOPER- MP" and if you looked really really closely, you could see the word "for" before MP written in really small letters. Same thing goes with all his campaign material, its rediculous.
But besides that, I really don't think that the whole ADSCAM thing is a big deal for Thornhill voters, sure, it'll have some impact, but not enough to elect the conservatives. Now, if the parties had stayed split, and there was a real Conservative candidate (not the extreme-right-wing Alliance types), then Susan might have had a run for her money.
Susan Kadis is a very well known name, at least in the Vaughan Thornhill. She has huge support in parts of the Jewish Community, in the Korean Community and in the Russian community. She's a city counsellor who has a reputation and who hasn't been involved in the scandals going on with DiBiase as vaughan city hall.
So ya, I think Susan is going to win, not by a lot though, not by nearly as much as Elinor won by, but she will win.
24/04/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Psssst Jeffrey (aka Aaron)
If you want to talk desperation, check in with local Liberal MPP Mario Racco. He is telling anyone who will listen that Kadis will lose this election...coming from a campaigning legend like Racco, I am taking that to the bank!!!
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If you want proof that there may, indeed, be a palpable post-9/11 conservative trend for Jewish voters (at least for those of the non-downtown/liberal/intellectual sort), it's in the 2003 Ontario election results; not only did Tina Molinari turn 1999's anomalous PC near-defeat into an equally anomalous PC near-victory, but next door in Monte Kwinter's York Centre, there was a mysterious, microscopic swing *against* the Liberals! And add to that the fact that in that year's Toronto mayoralty race, John Tory heavily outpolled David Miller in the Jewish polls, and for reasons that appear a little more loaded than their simply being more "affluent" and/or "suburban". Of course, these kinds of Jewish conservatives have hitherto been classic "Martin conservatives"; but thanks to the ugly turns in both global and national politics, an, er, "Alliance/Conservative" victory in Thornhill seems less a pandering pipe dream than it did in 2000. (And of course, what is now Thornhill would have gone solidly for Mulroney in the 1980s.)
24/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
My suggestion to John Vaughan is to keep his analyses coming...they make more sense than many and echo some of my own experiences over the years.
I do agree that the Jewish vote has never gravitated on the basis of foreign policy issues...Joe Clark in 1979 won few Jewish votes on moving the Embassy and fewer still in 1980...
However, Jewish voters can go Conservative in the right circumstances...An outstanding candidate like David Rotenburg held the riding of Wilson Heights in 1977 and 1981 provincially because of his solid reputation amongst Orthodox Jews...they voted overwealmingly for him.
In federal elections, many Jewish voters in Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre (more in the former) went Conservative because of free trade. So much so that in 1988, the Conservatives got more votes in Eglinton Lawrence on its boundaries than they did in 1984...not many in that category...(one in that category was Outrement, whose Jewish voters in 1988 gave that riding its first Conservative member perhaps in history).
Now in 2004, I like the Conservative candidate and think he will give the Conservatives their best possible shot, though it will be an uphill battle without the cataylst of private school funding that played a huge part in keeping the riding so nearly Copnservative in the 2003 provincial election.
If the election call is imminent, the play of issues may gravitate to the Adscam scandal...not an issue from which a big liberal victory will emerge...
21/04/04 jeffrey
Email: [hidden]
It's getting so bad for Josh Cooper he's now hanging around at Rosedale Hts Public School trying to get support from parents who are picking their children up. Hey Cooper your fifteen minutes of fame are about up.
19/04/04 John Vaughan
Email: [hidden]
First of all, I'm not a fan of the Liberals.
Second, I'm sure that like last time, Thornhill will see one of the highest proportions of inaccurate submissions of any riding on E.P., just like in 2000.
19/04/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
Jeffrey's submission is fantasy and wishful thinking by an amateurish and increasingly desperate Susan Kadis campaign. The Elinor Caplan team has left the riding along with their out-of-riding retiring MP, taking the campaing expertise and body count with them. The Liberal Riding Association was split about Kadis' nomination, and half are sitting on their hands this time around.
The Liberals had their candidate training this past weekend. I hear that Kadis was already familiar with one of the courses in advance: "Doors Slamming in Your Face 101..."
19/04/04 jeffrey
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I guess DM and Evan Dandy had a memory laspe when Cooper's party the Alliance-Conservatives held their leadership convention on a Saturday. Cooper the self-proclamed Jewish candidate was at the convention during the Sabbath hours.What a bunch of hypocrites.
16/04/04 DM
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Susan Kadis knocking on doors in a Jewish neighborhood on a Saturday?? I find it hard to believe that Kadis would engage in such an insensitive form of campaigning. John Vaughan might want to rethink his bold prediction of the Jewish vote going overwhelmingly Liberal...Just another sign the Liberals are out of touch with Thornhill.
16/04/04 John Vaughan
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I hate to do this, but I'm going to put a third post here - I'll try to keep it brief. This riding in 2000 went about 30% Tory-Alliance. Last time I checked the Tory-Alliance was polling around 32% across Ontario, below the 38% last time - so there's pretty much a third of the right of the Ontario electorate that's reliably right-of-center. Whatever Cooper's popularity - it won't be enough. Attacking the Liberals for being insufficiently pro-Israel has NEVER pulled Jewish voters into the Conservative/Alliance column. It didn't work in 1979, when Joe Clark made a promise to move the Canadian embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. It didn't work with Mulroney - arguably the most pro-Israel PM in Canadian history. It especially didn't work with Stockwell Day. He has virtually no presence in Thornhill today, contrary to the poster who claims he's wildly popular here. Every poll of political attitudes of Jews I've seen has showed them to be the LEFT of non-Jews in the same social strata (i.e. Jewish union members are more left-wing than non-Jewish union members, Jewish doctors and Jewish academics are to the left of their non-Jewish counterparts, etc.)
It won't be like the provincial election in 2003 - as the schools issue brought in many Orthodox Jews out to vote for the Conservatives. There's also a lot of Russian Jews in Thornhill who tend to be fairly conservative as well. However, non-Orthodox Canadian-born Jews will almost certainly overwhelmingly back the Liberals. And there just isn't a groundswell of federal Conservative support in the GTA that could see too many elected Conservatives elected this time.
14/04/04 jeffrey
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The professional company from Toronto calling on behalf of Josh Cooper called a number of my neighbours who are Jewish on the first night of Passover. They are vey upset at Cooper.
10/04/04 Evan Dandy
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Oh please, Vaughan Watch has 12 people clicking on it. Oh wait, that's Kadis and her entire family!
Here is a fresh Kadis campaign sighting for you: Kadis, by herself, doorknocking in a Jewish neighbourhood on a Saturday!
08/04/04 Evan Dandy
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Some basic facts first:
Thornhill has reached over 40% Jewish vote.
I will even agree with John Vaughan that the secular Jewish vote has voted Liberal in past federal elections.
However, in the past provincial election, this riding's voting patterns changed. Tina Molinari (PC MPP) narrowly lost to Mario Racco, in large part due to ignoring the traditionally Conservative side of the riding in Markham, and focused her attention on Vaughan and the Jewish areas.
Guess what: The Jewish vote split, and Tina won many polls in Vaughan. Unfortunately for her, Mario did an excellent job getting the vote out in Markham, and narrowly beat her.
This riding is ready to vote for well known community activist like Josh Cooper to provide strong representation, instead for another tired Liberal career politician looking to ride the gravy train...
08/04/04 jeffrey
A poll on the web site of Vaughan Watch asks the question. In your opinion which member of Vaughan council has been most effectively representing the residents of the City of Vaughan? The majority chose Susan Kadis.
07/04/04 Reality Check
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In an era where ADSCAM is the primary issue in federal politics, its rather interesting that Susan Kadis is the Liberal candidate considering that she is coming directly from the most corrupt political jurisdiction -- Vaughan's City Hall. While she may not be at the forefront of scandal, her silence on the corruption makes her just as guilty as the catalysts.
And this is what we want as our Federal representative in Ottawa?
Perhaps if Kadis had any integrity, she would resign as Ward 5 Councillor given the fact she just attained a 3 year mandate and is effectively abandoning that for a shot at Ottawa. Take a bow Susan - you've just proven that you are no better than the likes of Mario Racco and Elinor Caplan who abandoned their constituents mid-stream to pursue your own agenda.
People are not stupid and Josh Cooper has been campaigning strategically for some time. If he keeps his machine strong, he can make Thornhill one of the first ridings to return to flying the blue flag.
07/04/04 John Vaughan
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This is my second post. Yes people in Thornhill are upset about Adscam, etc., but I don't think people are more angry about it here than in other 905 ridings. There's no evidence suggesting the 905 zone will be electing very many Conservatives, if any, and it's more likely to occur in other ridings. Evan Dandy suggests that it's wrong to use the 2000 election as an analysis for today. That's true, to a degree, but Evan Dandy suggests that the Conservative total will jump from 31% (Tory-Alliance) in 2000 to 47%. This is unlikely, given that no poll has shown the Conservatives picking all of the "united right" votes from 2000. So how will it jump to 47% I'd like to know (besides anger about government corruption, aren't most people cynical about politics for this reason already). Not to mention, this is a highly-educated, middle class, professional riding where most Tory voters are social liberals and unlikely to go overwhelmingly to the Harper-led Conservatives.
As for the Jewish vote, which I believe represents about one-third of the riding, mostly in Vaughan but also in Markham. Yes Reform/Alliance made inroads among Jewish voters in 2000 - nationally they went from probably something like 2% in 1997 to maybe 10%. So now Evan Dandy thinks they'll be getting like 50-75% of the Jewish vote with Josh Cooper, I presume. I find this very hard to believe. For decades, pundits have been predicting a massive realignment on the part of Jewish voters. This hasn't happened -the last "realignment" was during the 1950s when the once largely socialist Jewish community saw a huge drop in support for radical socialist political parties due to McCarthyism as well as the move from the working class to the middle class and city to suburb. Most of these former socialists became liberals (ie. Liberal Party in Canada, Democrats in the US), though there has been a noted move to conservatism among intellectuals. The perceived anti-Israel bias of social democrats and even liberals has provided an opening for Jewish conservatives, but the shift is not as big as pundits have predicted. Rightwing Jews, who tend to be more observant, still represent a minority in the community. Overall, the Jewish community will vote overwhelmingly Liberal.
Email: [hidden]
The Israel / anti-Semitism issue will be important here in a way that it wasn't in 2000. The last election was before Durban, before the huge upsurge of anti-Semitic violence worldwide, before the age of terrorism entered the public consciousness and before Jewish schools in Canada started being firebombed. The Liberals are seen as being soft on terror, too slow to condemn foreign terrorism, too slow to stop Canadian funsing for terrorism and too quick to pile on Israel for what is seen by much of the voting community here as legitimate self-defense. The Conservatives have the opposite image, and Stockwell Day has gained a lot of respect among locals as foreign affairs critic. Josh Cooper is also respected locally. Easy Tory pick-up.
04/04/04 Mike S
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Susan Kadis has no local network, has not had to run an election since 1997, and has no profile in the traditionally small-c conservative side of the riding, Markham. In 1999, Tina Molinari won the riding based on her strength on the Markham side, and held her losses on the Vaughan side. These people (of which I am one) are exactly the kind of people who are FURIOUS at Adscam, Passportscam, etc. These are the people who voted Cousens forever, and Tsubouchi in 1995. Based on the lacklustre turnout at her nomination meeting, Susan Kadis will be in for a rough ride.
19/03/04 Evan Dandy
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I'll throw my numerical prediction for Thornhill for all to see now, in response to John Vaughan.
Josh Cooper (Conservative): 47%
Susan Kadis (presumed Lib candidate): 43%
Whoever NDP runs: 8 - 9% (I'll be generous based on the Jack Layton effect)
Other parties: 1%
I happen to be active in the Conservative cause in the North Toronto and South York region areas, so my knowledge and contributions will be limited to a 5-6 riding area.
John Vaughan is right about what took place in 2000, but it ends there.
To assume that the same will be repeated in 2004 is far too simplistic. For one, the party name is now Conservative, which does not have the negative baggage that the Liberals were able to attach to the Alliance in 2000. Second, Josh Cooper has been campaigning in the riding for a year, he is not an unknown factor, especially in his own Jewish community.
Third, does the word "Adscam" ring a bell? I'll keep repeating this till I am hoarse and the moderators notice, but this riding should be looked at in the context of the provincial results, with 2 competitive parties making this a bellweather riding. To attach a Liberal win prediction at this point in the game is premature at best.

18/03/04 John Vaughan
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No offense Dave, but your post seems very partisan in nature. If there was a massive shift to the right among Jewish voters due to the Israel issue, why didn't it happen in 2000, when this propaganda line was prominent. The National Post insisted that Stockwell Day was popular in the Jewish community and Toronto area Jewish voters were going to abandon the Liberal Party en masse to support this hardcore Christian conservative from Alberta?? Even the Post's own pollster found that Jewish support for the Canadian Alliance was dismal, below that of non-Jews in Thornhill.
Josh Cooper won't win here. His prominence organizing a Pro-USA rally on the eve of Gulf War II won't endear him to many.
Prediction: LIB 70%, CPC 23%, NDP 6%
18/03/04 Evan Dandy
Email: [hidden]
To compare Thornhill today to what transpired in 2000 is to fundamentally misread the situation.
a) Elinor Caplan - and her steamroller political machinery is gone
b) Susan Kadis - her likely hand-picked successor can generously be described as a "light-weight". (Thornhill Liberal MPP Mario Racco steamrolled Kadis for the provincial Liberal nomination 2 years ago - not much has improved organizationally for Kadis since)
c) Thornhill has been the tightest campaign provincially, two elections running - a Conservative support level of 35% in Ontario coupled with a strong local campaign, and this riding goes Conservative. Tina Molinari won by 300 votes in 1999 for the PC's, and lost by 800 votes in 2003 at a 34% provincial PC support level. (And a lousy local campaign)
d) Josh Cooper has deep roots in the riding, and is a well regarded activist in the Jewish community. They know him, and his track record. This will eliminate the handicap that the Alliance suffered in 2000 in Thornhill.
17/03/04 Patrick Webber
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An examination of the results from 2000 suggest that even if things go badly for the Liberals in Ontario, Thornhill will remain Liberal. The combined PC/Alliance vote isn't even half of the Liberal vote, and the NDP has hardly any base from 2000 to build upon. Easy Liberal hold.
17/03/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
Josh Cooper is poised to take Thornhill for the Conswrvatives, with a strong campaign team and huge volunteer base that has been in the works for over a year. Thornhill citizens are tired of Liberal scandals and neglect for their values. Further, a shift in the Jewish vote due to the Liberals' abysmal policies on Israel and supporting democracy will help propel Cooper to victory. The traditionally conservative Markham side of the riding will come out in force to defeat the Martin government.

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