Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
5:01 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:01 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paul DeVillers
Jen Hill
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Mary Lou Kirby
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Adrian Kooger
Peter Stock
Canadian Action canadienne:
Ian Woods

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Simcoe-Grey (0.3%)
Hon. Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North (99.7%)
Hon. Paul DeVillers

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,825 50.83%
13,766 29.37%
6,771 14.45%
2,204 4.70%
306 0.65%

(5/219 polls, 230/82895 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Simcoe North
(228/232 polls, 79312/80181 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
18/06/04 Jeremy
Email: [hidden]
An interesting race in Simcoe North. Incumbent Paul DeVillers is up again CPC candidate Peter Stock who ran under the Alliance and Reform banners in the last two elections. Stock must have learned a few lessons from his previous failures. This election he is being practically mute on social values and moral issues, on which he is vulnerable due to his extreme views. The CPC is taking no chances, however. When Stephen Harper visited Barrie on a local campaign stop, Peter Stock was conspicuously absent. Obviously the party is afraid of the negative attention Stock can draw. When all is said and done, Paul DeVillers will win Simcoe North again. People will not forget that the newly muzzled Peter Stock is the same extremist he was just a couple of months ago. Peter Stock has marginalized common law partners, single parent families, divorced parents, illegitimate children, homosexuals, feminists, and has called clergy that don't share his views, heretics. That's a lot of people in Simcoe North who will under no circumstances vote for Peter Stock. Despite the shakiness of the Liberal campaign, this riding will stay red.
13/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Blue as they come...but what kind of blue? After all, this was part of the 400/11 corridor that noticably swung "Paul Martin blue" in 2000; and within Simcoe County, the Midland-Penetang part is as *red* as they come--but even with that, the absolute majority for Devillers in 2000 was a bit startling. (Though it might have been compounded by the bible-beating Stock'n'Stock doppleganger at the Alliance end scaring rightward-leaning voters off.) Now Paul DV's handicapped by the polls, of course, as well as by being a Chretien guy--still, between Midland-Penetang factoring in and Peter Stock re-offering, he's the most likely Simcoe Liberal to stay. Relatively speaking. (And a real blow to Paul Martin if he wins and Aileen Carroll loses...)
08/06/04 David
Email: [hidden]
Hard to think the Libs have a chance here. Yes, I know the numbers do not add up from last time, but this riding is as blue as they come in Ontario. With the Liberals at 32, country-wide, hard to beleive they could hold this one. Get a grip, the Liberals are going to be hard-pressed to get more votes than the NDP outside Quebec, and yet they are competitive in more ridings. No one seems to be doing the real math yet. Ridings like this one will be among the first to go!
Email: [hidden]
I wish to rebut C. Estes' response. I did not say Peter Stock had sought nomination in any other riding. I said quite correctly that he tried to dominate the founding meeting of the Barrie riding association by bringing in a couple hundred memberships, but failed in his attempt. Unless he just enjoys selling memberships in ridings other than his own, it seems obvious he was hoping to submit himself for nomination in that riding but got driven off by the much stronger Patrick Brown. C. Estes claims that the people of Simcoe North have gotten to know and trust Peter Stock. I would like to know how? Apart from extended visits to the riding just before and during elections, it has been more than ten years (most of his adult life) since Stock lived in this area. In at least one election he had to sleep on the couch of his CFO because he had no residence in Simcoe North. True to form, he moved to Simcoe North again a few months ago. I wonder why C. Estes thinks Paul DeVillers has been absent from his riding in the past year. DeVillers has a reputation as a strong riding MP. Peter Stock was soundly rejected by the people of Simcoe North during the last two elections. Nothing's going to change this time!
"The lady doest protest too much."
24/05/04 C. Estes
Email: [hidden]
First off, the information posted by Rhonda is completely false. Peter has never sought nomination outside of Simcoe North. He did grow up in Shanty Bay, which is close to Barrie, but his political connections are with the conservatives of Simcoe North.
This riding will go Conservative this time around. The people of Simcoe North have come to know and trust Peter Stock and they are ready for a new MP. Also, the conspicuous absence of Paul DeVillers over the past year only serves to underscore his growing apathy for constituent concerns. This combines with the general sense that DeVillers has become lazy and needs to be replaced to benefit the young Stock. Stock's willingness to face Devillers yet again certainly shows a determination rarely seen elsewhere. It will definitely be a battle worth watching.
11/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
Simcoe North IS a Conservative riding. This will be very very close, but it is more conservative in my opinion than its Simcoe--Grey neighbour. (just look at the results). The combined Conservative-Alliance vote is high enough that I think they will pull it off here. This riding is also Conservative provincially. Tides are changing in Ontario, and it begins in ridings like this.
08/05/04 Rhonda
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals will win again in Simcoe North. Paul DeVillers is a well liked MP with a strong record. The CPC candidate is Peter Stock. He ran in Simcoe North for the Alliance in 2000 and Reform in 1997. Paul DeVillers has already beat Stock twice with no trouble, the last time with more than 50% of the vote. Peter Stock didn't even want to run in Simcoe North this time. Earlier this year he sniffed around the neighbouring riding of Barrie in the hope of being the candidate there, and even sold a bunch of memberships in an attempt to control the riding association at its founding meeting. Stock was outsold by moderate CPC supporters in Barrie, so he had to return to Simcoe North, a riding where he had a good chance of being nominated by the conservative Christian base of the CPC association. The election must be coming soon because Peter Stock has, once again, moved into the riding of Simcoe North, at least temporarily. Like the modern day carpet beggar that he is, Stock will no doubt start sniffing around for a better riding again, right after he gets defeated in the upcoming election.
06/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding had a strong showing for the Reform Party in 1993! Add to that strong showings historically in the entire simcoe area for tories past and persent, and you have the right mix for a CPC victory. Polls say the CPC will take 25 seats in ontario, this is one of them.
06/05/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
This will be a Liberal win. Paul DeVillers is a strong incumbent and he is up against Peter Stock who ran unsuccessfully for Reform in 1997, Alliance in 2000, and now will be running under the Alliance-Conservative banner. Paul DeVillers handily beat Stock twice already, the last time with more than 50% of the vote. Peter Stock is a social conservative activist who advocates positions that are too extreme for the majority moderate conservative base of the riding. Despite the fact that he has already run twice in this riding, Peter Stock is a relative stranger to the area. He recently moved to the riding, at least temporarily, as he has done in previous campaigns, but he has generally lived outside of Simcoe North during the past ten years. Before that, while he technically lived in Simcoe North, the City of Barrie, which is not in Simcoe North, was his local centre. Like I said, this will be a Liberal win.
22/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Even though MPP Garfield Dunlop won here provincially, this wasn't a vote split riding (going against the odds considering it is Simcoe County) by about 4,000 votes less than the Libs. If the CPC gains non-vote split seats, this one definitly fits the profile of a Tory pickup. However, Daryl Bricker of Ipsos-Reid suggests that the latest results mean 25-30 seats for the Tories...meaning only all the vote-splitting ones. But it is too early to tell as Bricker stated that a 1% close in the gap between the Libs and Tories in Ontario would mean 40+ seats and the Libs are losing ground and fast.
09/04/04 KPC Email: [hidden]
The Conservatives will win in Simcoe Grey. Jim Wilson has a strong electoral machine here for the provincial conservatives. And Helena will benefit from regional momentum. A factor which should definitely not go ignored. Her riding is adjacent to Tory candidates Peter Van Loan (Lawyer, Past Party President) and Patrick Brown (Lawyer, City Councillor, City Budget Chief). They have some of the strongest campaign teams in Ontario. Their strength could bleed into Simcoe Grey. Both of them have already openned campaign offices and have done media advertising which generally assists ridings in close proximity.
29/03/04 Sarge
Email: [hidden]
The previous poster is dead wrong. This is far from being the 4th safest riding for the Tories. Devillers got 51% of the vote in the 2000 election which means the lack of the vote split, even in the very unlikely event all red Tories will vote for a Harper party, means very little.
Devillers is very popular and a good constituency man, a stark contrast to the two other Simcoe MP's who would probably get lost driving in their home ridings considering they spend no time there.
His campaign team is large and well funded. I would expect that this is the safest Liberal riding in Simcoe County and he should win here by 4000 votes.
26/03/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
This seat looks as though it will swing Tory. Unlike in other Ontario constituencies, the Tories have fielded a credible and hardworking candidate. I suspect that the blue rinse brigade will be out in force for this seat - Tory gain.
24/03/04 Todd S.
Email: [hidden]
This riding will go Conservative. It's probably the 3rd or 4th safest seat in Ontario for the new Tories. The party has nominated far-right Christian activist Peter Stock to be the candidate, but no matter. He will win simply because of the makeup of the constituency (This riding belonged to former Mulroney AG Doug Lewis for years.)

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster