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Scarborough Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:39 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:31 PM 21/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Greg Bonser
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
John Cannis
Greg Gogan
John Mihtis
Dorothy Sauras

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Scarborough-Agincourt (13.2%)
Hon. Jim Karygiannis
Scarborough Centre (86.8%)
John Cannis

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,823 67.76%
7,086 21.04%
2,580 7.66%
699 2.08%
496 1.47%

(23/176 polls, 8338/69876 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough Centre
(151/215 polls, 54709/74162 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Authorized by the Official Agent for Greg Gogan
21/06/04 Jason Hou
Email: [hidden]
Since my last post in May, I said John Cannis should win this seat easily. Even though this election is so close now throughout the country, Scarborough Centre should still stay Libreal. There are signs John Mihtis could make gains in this riding, but don't think he has enough to catch up to Cannis. Even though the sign wars looks pretty even to me. The NDP has life in this riding for the first time in a long time, some signs have been actually showing up. Greg Gogan is really working hard for the NDP, and has actually brought issues in Scarborough Centre. But I think the lack in NDP prescence in the past, will put him in third. My predection for next week is 47%Cannis 35%Mihtis 15%Gogan. I predict a more closer victory for Cannis this time around.
06/06/04 MSH
Email: [hidden]
Can the Liberals lose this seat? Thousands of votes would have to shift to the Conservatives. Nothing is impossible, but a move this large seems unlikely unless Liberal support in Toronto collapses totally. Cannis is safe, at least for now.
12/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The ghost of Wayne & Garth resides here...actually, Scarborough Centre has transformed itself extraordinarily over the past generation--heck, even over the decade-plus that Cannis has been on office. Or even the half decade since Marilyn Mushinski last won for the provincial PCs. It's now as much if not more of an ethnic mix (and *literally* a mix, i.e. more diverse than "Asiancourt") compared to northern Scarborough. And it's older, hence more decrepit. And more downtrodden. A socio-demographic work in progress. Youth gangs at Scarborough Town Centre and at Kennedy Station. The way things look now, even w/the "crime agenda", it's probably *less* likely to go Conservative anytime soon than Scarborough-Agincourt (which has a bit of that solidly middle-class Willowdale East/Markham South thing going), even though it was PC more recently provincially and federally. Furthermore, even though the golden age of Scarborough as Gus Harris's blue-collar NDP-friendly white trash 'burb is long gone, SC's present demographics (and what vestiges of the old remain) could prove quite conducive to the Layton message, maybe conducive enough for second place. But for now, John Cannis is the classic Scarborough Liberal: rightish wallpaper of no particular distinction, with the dumb luck that his seat's become so safe in spite of himself--less like the swing seat it used to be, and more and more like the NW Toronto "Red Belt".
05/05/04 Jason Hou
Email: [hidden]
I generally agree this a typical liberal riding, even though there was no PC canditate in the 2000 election, that split would not have won this seat for the conservatives. Even though this current sponsorship scandal, is even affecting liberal seats, the popularlity of Cannis is really hard to beat. This riding typicaly voted the party who won power(1980 Norm Kelly),(1984, 1988 Pauline Brownes), (1993,1997,2000 John Cannis). I think the conservatives may gain some votes, Cannis should still win this seat comfortably.
11/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
While I tend to agree that Cannis will win for the Liberals, I note there was no PC candidate in 2000...in 1997, the Conservative/Reform vote would have been about 35%. The riding has a tendancy to vote Conservative in elections where they are running reasonably well in Ontario (example, PC in 1988 federal, PC in 1999 provincial). It is a classic middle class riding, but without the ethnic mix in northern Scarborough ridings.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

In 2000, John Cannis won close to 70% of the vote. I don't think it's humanly possible for him to lose this time.

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