Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Richmond Hill
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:59 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:27 PM 21/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
C. Nella Cotrupi
PC Party/Parti PC:
Ellena Lam
Pete Merrifield
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tim Rudkins
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Bryon Wilfert

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Oak Ridges (100.0%)
Bryon Wilfert

2000 Result/Résultats:
21,922 62.97%
6,169 17.72%
5,043 14.49%
1,134 3.26%
546 1.57%

Oak Ridges
(134/208 polls, 63275/99039 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
21/06/04 MK
Email: [hidden]
Bryon WIlfirt has been an MP for 2+ elections, and this has usually been a Harris-Cretien riding. I can see a definite advantage for the Liberals as per yesterday's meeting: However, The Conservatives are really trying to push it. On my street, over 30 Merrifield signs are posted while only 11 Liberal signs are up so far. There has been a lot of unfair play against the Conservatives, though. In today's edition of The Liberal, the newspaper reported the removal of "over 600" signs. Merrifield says they were replaced with signs for this new Lam candidate from the PC party. I think this will cause with confusion as the ballot will read PC party rather then Progressive Canadian, and the Conservatives will lose votes as a result. Furthermore, I have seen more and more Cotrupi signs pop up in the area, even in more high-income areas. Anyway, this will be a tight race.
20/06/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
in response to Drae's post:
I have personally went and canvassed Ward 6 with Bryon and know for a fact that the area is all Liberal, if you were in the right ward, you would notice an ocean or red and white and a puddle of blue.
The people in Ward 6 know Bryon personally from all the help he gave them in the 12 years he was their councilor.
17/06/04 MK
Email: [hidden]
Now that Elena Lam's Progressive Conservative signs are going up everywhere in front of all the Merrifield signs, I think this one is in the bag for Wilfert - in a big way.
At the Chamber debate last night, I was approached by a member of the Richmond Hill Alliance-conservative riding executive who clearly voiced his support for Wilfert. Seems they're worried that Merrifield might really hamper Alliance-Conservative chances in Richmond Hill for future elections. They're not happy.
No suprise seeing as most active Conservatives are supporting Wilfert.
17/06/04 -----
Email: [hidden]
the conservatives are going to win, but it's a close call. the residents of richmond hill, many of them are conservative-minded, and they all really have right wing beliefs. as the previous messages stated before, william bell even said that merrifield was the best candidate
17/06/04 KN
Email: kaz@nejatian.com
I was at a all candidate meeting last night. Here is what it looked like:
Winner: tie between Rudkins (Green) and Merrifield (Conservative.)
Loser: NDP
Before the event there were about 10-15 young Conservative volunteers outside the debate holding up signs, waving at cars, and getting lots of honks. No Liberals. Inside, in the lobby the agressive Conservative and Green campaigns managed to pass out a good deal of information while the Liberals sat at their table. (Even the FairVote guys handed out more information than the Liberals.)I think the crowd might have been more Conservative friendly since it was a debate organized by the Chamber of Commerce and taking place at a local church.
At the debate itself, Wilfert sounded aloof. He kept reading from his notes and turned red everytime someone talked about scandals. Rudkins was clearly the best debator of the bunch. He was funny, clever, and quick on his feet. Merrifield was second, but he got a lot of applause. After the debate I had to wait more than 20 minutes to talk to him because there was a long line up. Even after the organizers had cleaned up and emptied out the hall (nearly full with I'd say close to 300 people), there was a line up of five or ten people wanting to talk to Merrifield. Wilfert had left immediately after a debate to attend another event. (I didn't have a chance to talk to him and someone said he had another event to go to.)
17/06/04 Janet Weis
Email: [hidden]
In response to KA... I thought bell was endorsing wilfert as well, but then I read Bryon's "candidate card" if that's what you call it, anyways I read it over, and all it says is that he's a good friend and has done a lot for the community, a lot of people have, that doesn't make them qualified to be an MP and that doesn't really stand as an endorsement. Anyways the mayor is known to have conservative membership, that's the only reason he keeps winning, and I don't think he would ever want to sever those ties.
I don't know about sign placement but I think that the conservatives are winning the sign war, with the progressive Canadian in a close second. Wilfert does have a few area lawn signs and I felt uncomfortable when he practically forced it on me, so my house has one, although I do not plan on voting liberal. My aunt holds liberal membership as well, and she told me Wilfert put a sign on her lawn without asking, that made her angry, she now has a NDP sign on her lawn.
I went to the all candidates meeting last night, and in all honesty, I think Mr. Merrifield had all to win, and he did. Wilfert is a bad defender of his record, and he's going to have a really tough campaign over Merrifield. I like Tim Rudkins a lot as well, I just wish he was running for a party that had a chance.
I know that if KA says "Bryon is a very well-respected MP. Residences of Richmond Hill are voting Bryon cause he's Bryon, not because he's a Liberal." I say that no one after sponcergate and the lack of trust votes for people because they are liberal! NO ONE! And after the kind of joke campaign he is pulling I would change that to was a very respected MP.
Don't know who I am going to vote for... but I know I won't be voting liberal.
16/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Having grown up not far from here, where even the newspaper was called "The Liberal" there is a long Grit tradition bolstered by the kinds of new residents here. My prediction is a lib hold. Although it is a swing riding it would take a massive swing here. CPC needs to get much higher overall to achieve this. Remember, most polls still have them below their combined PC-CA totals for 2000. They would have to massively increase the combined vote to even compete. Also, NDP vote here will not top 10 per cent even though Jack Layton speaks some Cantonese. This is not Stronach-land, but Liberals will be in a closer race this time. Libs 44 CPC 34 NDP 9 green 6
10/06/04 Drae
Email: [hidden]
This should be a close Conservative win. AK is wrong to think that Mayor Bells endoresement will carry enough weight to bring the Libs victory here, as he is not activly supporting him. I have driven around and Wilfert is losing in his old town hall district (ward 6) and that should say it all!
06/06/04 AK
Email: [hidden]
In response to AM... READ BRYON's CANDIDATE CARD... CALL UP THE BELL HOUSEHOLD IF YOU WANT TO... CALL BRYON'S OFFICE IF YOU WANT TO... Mayor Bell's household is voting for Bryon... where is this 'undecided' information coming from? Bell has always voted for Wilfert and is going to this time. The mayor is not going to support some man who doesnt even live in Richmond Hill. This Merrifield is running some immitation Golf Tournament on the same day as the Mayor's golf tournanment. The mayor is not impressed. And this Merrifield as VERY LITTLE residential signs. He's putting up illegal street signs all over the place cause he has no residential support. Basing prediction based on signs in not a wise prediction. Bob Callow in 2000 also had illegal signs plastered all over the place. That didnt work. Bryon is a very well-respected MP. Residences of Richmond Hill are voting Bryon cause he's Bryon, not because hes a Liberal. That just shows how great of an MP he is. This Merrifield has not done much but plaster illegal signs on the streets that he couldnt convince households with to put on their front lawns.
05/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I have to go with AK on this one. While most of York Region will go CPC this riding will stay Liberal larely because of Bryon Wilfert.
05/06/04 K.M.
Email: [hidden]
I think Richmond Hill could swing this election. I am starting to see more and more Pete Merrifield signs on lawns. There seems to be some momentum building. It's going to be close. I have had the chance to meet Mr. Merrifield, his RCMP and business background is quite impressive.
04/06/04 Leslie Robson
Email: [hidden]
I cant really tell because everyone is ashamed to put their name out there, why that is I do not know, however there is a serious lack of a womans perspective here so I'll give you mine.
In response to AK's message. The only reason Bell and Barrow are endorsing wilfert is because if Wilfert looses, he has nothing to fall back on because he is a career politician, no other skills, if you call that one at all. Therefore we all know how wilfert is eying the mayors chair, and heaven forbid he should replace bell, which he would do so quite easily! And since Barrow has been chewing at the shins of Bell for years and has essentially become a mini William, he has endorsed him to save his butt as well. As for Bryon's candidate card, I found it was interesting how Bryon's first lit piece attained no information about himself yet rather endorsements that try to portray him as a right wing Liberal, not to mention how hard it was to find the liberal logo on it. I think that they relied too much on Mr. martin, and now since he is going down, others who have relied on his image, distancing their selves for the liberal government are going to run into trouble. PS Brenda Hogg never endorsed anyone.
You claim "Bryon has been a really strong MP since 1997", let me know what he has done please...while your at it he was also a councilor for 12 years before that! What did he do then? .
You claim "I have spoken to a lot of people and some of them don't want to vote Liberal, but are voting for Bryon because hes a man that can do stuff for Richmond Hill and has been a great representative in Ottawa." 1. THEN VOTE GREEN! 2. again What has he done, you could say Hitler did a lot for Germany, that doesn't mean any of that was good! Ps. "that can do STUFF" !?!?!?!?!

You claim "Peter Merrifield on the other hand has no residential sign support. All he's doing is just platering signs all boulevards." 1. what is platering? and 2. on my street there is only 1 wilfert lawn 4 Merrifield signs, and 2 Rudkins signs, 1 of those being on my lawn.

You claim "Plus, he doesn't even live in the riding. He happened to have lost a nomination in some other riding and conveniently dropped into Richmond Hill." I can not comment on this because do not know where he lives however that should not be as big of an issue as a lot of you think. Frank Klees doesn't live here and not 1 of you can say he does not serve this community well, one of the Tories I have great respect for.
You are predicting a third straight Wilfert win in the good'ol riding of Richmond Hill, and I obviously am not. GREEN ALL THE WAY BABY, but realistically if Thornhill, Aurora Newmarket, and Oak Ridges Markham go so will this, this will be a close race!
03/06/04 AM
Email: [hidden]
I don't know what people are thinking but Bill Bell has not endorsed Wilfert. The Wilfert campaign was so desperate that it went and asked for a quote. Bill Bell, as of yesterday, was undecided. He has been telling this to everyone who will listen.
I was just driving through the centre of the riding, and I saw 5 Merrifield signs compared to 1 Wilfert sign. This is nothing like 2000 where the Alliance focused on the upper half of the riding (Oak Ridges) and the Grits focused on the lower half. This time, it's a door to door fight and it looks like the Tories are going to win.
01/06/04 AK
Email: [hidden]
In response to MK's message. Yes, Mayor Bill Bell is a conservative, but he has openly endorsed Bryon Wilfert for MP. Just read Bryon's candidate card. So are regional councillors David Barrow and Brenda Hogg. Bryon has been a really strong MP since 1997. I have spoken to a lot of people and some of them don't want to vote Liberal, but are voting for Bryon because hes a man that can do stuff for Richmond Hill and has been a great representative in Ottawa. Peter Merrifield on the other hand has no residential sign support. All he's doing is just platering signs all boulevards. Plus, he doesn't even live in the riding. He happened to have lost a nomination in some other riding and conveniently dropped into Richmond Hill. I'm predicting a third straight Wilfert win in the good'ol riding of Richmond Hill.
27/05/04 MK
Email: [hidden]
The COnservatives deifinitely have a stronghold here. Not only is Bill Bell conservative, but Frank Klees was elected with a large margin. Income is high, unemployment is low, and people don't want higher taxes or more services. It was a very different case with Oak RIdges, though, because that riding encompassed many more lower-income areas.
27/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
With all of York Region's new seats and retirements, the fact that an incumbent Liberal is running in Richmond Hill is mildly startling--and what with the Asian/Jewish influx from the bottom end, Richmond Hill's the most congenial bet for Wilfert. But only moderately so, even with the carving away of his old Torier parts, not that he had much choice or anything--but it's also probably not as easy a pushover as CPC might wish. Ordinarily, the dynamics would favour Liberal even if CPC's headed for a third if not half of Ontario seats--however, on the other hand, etc. A conundrum that depends on how stiff the Liberal backlash really turns out to be; and it would have been Tory, not Liberal, in 1988...
25/05/04 KN
Email: [hidden]
Paul Martin made his first Toronto stop at the border of Thonhill and Richmond Hill. In all my election experience I've never seen the Liberals start a campaign in any region that they were confident they would win. This is especially true of this current Liberal campaign. They started their Ottawa campaign in David Pratt's riding. (a riding that is too close for comfort) They start their Toronto campaign in Richmond Hill/Thornhill (two ridings that are swinging.)
Even the National Post had a column talking about how Richmond Hill specifically is going to be much more conservative than last time around. If things stand as they are, this riding is too close to call. But a 2-3 point swing to the Tories in Ontario would make this a Tory pick up. Judging by the way how every election since 1974 has gone, I'd say we can safely assume there will be at least a 2-3 point pickup for the Tories in the next 4-5 weeks.
24/04/04 Andrew Smith
Email: 2andrew@rogers.com
The Conservative Candidate for this riding has been chosen, and it is Pete Merrifield. I learned this when I was out the other day and he approached me and informed me that he was running for the new Conservative party of Canada. I never though that this riding would go conservative, but as I have been around for a while I have realized that Richmond Hill really is a conservative area. I mean in the great sweep of the liberal party of Ontario, it was one of the only regions that stayed blue, and in the GTA that is quite incredible. I think that the candidate Pete Merrifield is a really good candidate. He is a former RCMP officer and business person so he has told me that he knows the kind of things that go on internally and knows the waste that goes on in the country. Although Wilfret is a strong candidate I think in the past he has stood on the liberal record, however if he does this this time around he’ll get burned, and his record doesn’t have a lot on it at all form what I have seen. We’ll see, it will be close, but Merrifield is a hard working candidate, he may just pull it off.
03/04/04 J Cherniak
Email: [hidden]
With all due respect, the comment about Richmond Hill's Conservatism is nothing but wishfull, if not halucinagenic thinking. Local Councillors such as Vito Spatafora, Brenda Hogg, and David Barrow can hardly be considered Conservative. Mayor Bell and David Cohen, both Coservatives, are good friends of Bryon Wilfert and support him as a Liberal MP. Meanwhile, this is one of the few area ridings that remained Liberal in the 1980s when Bevilacqua first got elected. Kleese's election is not relevant, because he was elected by a wider margin in 1999 just before Wilfert obtained his huge 2000 majority. Richmond Hill is a federal Liberal stronghold - without conservative Stouffville in the new riding, I expect Bryon to win even more handily than last time.
29/03/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
Richmond Hill is a very diverse riding in many ways, but there is a certain commonality to much of the diversity. People here tend to be middle-class, suburban and conservative - both politically and socially. We bucked the Liberal tide in the provincial election and returned Frank Klees, who is hardly a Red Tory. Local politicians - almost uniformly a conservative (even "Alliance") bunch - were all reelected in the municipal vote in November. The NDP has never been a force here and the Liberals are being beaten with the sponsorship scandal stick. It looks like a conservative victory to me unless there's a major change in conditions. Personally, I'll be "throwing my vote away" on the NDP as we say around here!
29/03/04 J Cherniak
Email: [hidden]
Bryon Wilfert is very popular local candidate who puts a lot of effort into Constituency work in this riding of many immigrants. Another advantage is that he speaks a Chinese language. Bryon will not lose unless Martin goes the way of Kim Campbell.
23/03/04 Distant Observer
Email: ianbosnia@yahoo.ca
A new, big and culturally diverse riding. Looking at the redistribution numbers (available at Elections Canada website), this ought to be a sure thing for the Liberal nominee. It appears this is Byron Wilfert, but a vist to his website indicated that he won an uncontested nomination for 'Oak Ridges' as opposed to Richmond Hill. Maybe this means that they are awaiting formal legal recognition of the status of the new riding?
I think much will rest upon the credibility of the Conservative candidate(nomination meeting due on 31 March). To a lesser extent, the NDP will get a bounce from a renewed program and new, relatively local leader. If they make any kind of effort, they may take some of the support that would otherwide be hoovered up by the Liberals. That said, this is an aspirational riding, where many of the people have wanted to be left alone on get on with prospering and enjoying the fruits of the housing/economic boom in this area. Now the problems of a near urban (as opposed to suburban) environment and hyper-growth may push them more towards either end of the political spectrum. In any case, this is one of the few places where there will be (depending on Wilfert's choice) a fresh start in terms of candidates.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

A classic "Harris-Chretien" riding, turning out huge majorities for both governing parties during the 1990s. A commuter riding like this could be fertile ground for the Tories in the event of a major swing, but with a 38% plurality to fall back on, Wilfert is probably safe.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster