Election Prediction Project
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Prince Edward-Hastings
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:58 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:48 AM 6/23/2004

Constituency Profile
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Dan Douglas
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Bruce Knutson
Daryl Kramp
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Tom Lawson
Joseph Sahadat

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington (29.2%)
Larry McCormick
Prince Edward-Hastings (70.8%)
Hon. Lyle Vanclief

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,950 45.08%
11,991 25.80%
10,854 23.35%
2,402 5.17%
280 0.60%

Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
(74/221 polls, 24250/71031 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Prince Edward-Hastings
(168/204 polls, 58681/70466 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 SMK
Email: [hidden]
As I live in the County, I will give you my thoughts on that part of the riding first. The Conservatives will get the farm vote of those of Dutch heritage. Those of a Quaker and United Church Anglo background will tend to vote Liberal, but a significant portion will want to vote Conservative for a variety of reasons, so the farm vote will go mostly to the Conservatives. The artist community will be split between Greenies, New Dippers, Fiberals and Stories (artistic licence taken with party names).
The refugees from Toronto who have come to the County to run B&B's, play golf and be a member of the horticultural society will also split between the parties. The retirees from the armed forces, mostly former RCAF, will vote mostly Conservative.
On balance then, the Conservatives will do as well or better than the Liberals in the County.
Belleville has large pockets of well-to-do folks who come out to vote, and who will mostly vote Conservative, as will many of the middle class because of family values, as this area still has a strong Judeo-Christian ethic visa-vis morals/marriage and money. The other areas of the riding will go mostly Conservative.
On balance I predict the vote in the Hasty Peas area to be:
45% Conservative
40% Liberal
9% NDP
5% Green
1% other and spoiled
Remeber to vote early and often.
22/06/04 rr.
Email: [hidden]
the number of people should not be confused with the actual number of voters, in fact perhaps anything around 20,000 to 22,500 should win this riding as only 50% to 60% of people eligible to vote will vote so 60% of 90,000 is 54,000 voters....the tide has turned and people are now realizing the differences in philosophy of the two parties....locally the Conservatives have peaked and you can see more momentum happening for the Liberals....should be close but the Lberals will prevail by less tham 1000 votes....and by the way called the last provincial election to within 250 votes.
17/06/04 Ryan Hamilton
Email: moose_rgh@hotmail.com
This riding will be a tough fight, but this is a two party riding and those are the Liberals and the new found "Conservatives". The Liberals have a strong, seasoned, and well educated canidate in Bruce Knutson who has worked in Lyle Vanclief's riding office for the past ten years. On the other hand, Darryl Kramp is up for his third try at a seat and does not have any expierence in Ottawa.
Bruce will win Belleville and Prince Edward County, and if he can swing a little bit of the north (e.g a 30% in Bancroft) he will easily be the new candidate. There is some angry former PC members who have switched flags to the Liberal red and hopefully these will make the difference in this close race.
15/06/04 Dale S
Email: [hidden]
109,407 is the population of this riding (according to elections Canada), the population of the city of Belleville is 46,000 (which includes annexed Rural land). Lets assume that only 1/3 of Belleville votes Tory, that is 15,180, plus about 60% from the remaining portion of the riding (63,000 x 60% = 37800) this will give the conservatives 52,980 (assumming all people vote). (NOTE: I see the Conservatives doing alot better than 1/3 in Belleville though, I was lowballing it for sake of arguement)
52,980 equals 48.6% of the vote. The Liberal will not take 2/3 of Belleville, that vote will be split with the NDP and even in the non city part of this riding the Liberals will not capture the whole remaining vote. So vote splitting here will benefit the Conservatives. This riding WILL be blue come the 28th.
12/06/04 rr.
Email: [hidden]
If signs could vote the winner in Marmora will be Royal Lepage.....however it is true that the Blue signs do dominate in rural areas of the riding but it should be noted that they are mainly on old TORY lawns and this is in sharp contrast to the Liberal signs that are normally out. So Ithink it is still too close to call....a lot of people are waiting for the leaders debate...had an interesting discussion with a Joe Clark Progressive Conservative who says he is in a real quandry he just does not want to vote for the OLD,NEW PARTY OF CONVENIENCE...
10/06/04 Graydon
Email: [hidden]
This may be a close race at the end of the day, but I think the conservatives will be surprised when this seat stays in the Liberal camp.
Like Vanclief, Knutson is a local Belleville boy with strong roots in the riding. He was a senior staffer in Vanclief's office for many years and has maintained close ties with the local movers and shakers. This riding goes where Belleville goes and while Knutson is weak in the north, of a vary big riding from North to South, he will not be beaten in Belleville.
The Liberal nomination had over 1200 residents in attendance. The association is strong and Knutson has certainly benifitted from Vanclief's organization and support.
This riding will vote for Knutson.
07/06/04 Dale
Email: [hidden]
I live in Marmora, and have seen a grand total of 3 Liberal signs here and 1 NDP. There are dozens of Conservative signs. Most of the Conservative signs are on Private Residents property. The Liberal signs are 2 are on 1 property and 1 is on a public Highway. The NDP sign is on the same highway. Rural Ontario is largely Conservative. On a trip to Belleville on Thursday, there were some more NDP and Liberal signs, but even there the Conservative signs seem to outnumber the 2 of them combined. With the anount of residential lawn signs and the swelling of Conservative support and the decline in the Liberals, this riding should be put in the Conservative category.
05/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Lyle Vanclief will probably go down as an archetypal Chretien-era MP/cabinet minister--just "because"--but before he was swept in in 1988, this was solid OntariTory. Although very traditionally OntariTory in the sense that, like Northumberland, its inherent Reform/Allianceness is lukewarm--and the largest city, Belleville, has come to lean very heavily Liberal. So, were the Tories on track t/w no more than a baker's dozen or so Ontario seats, this wouldn't me one of them. Now, things are different--and all the more so with the seat now reconfigured to shoot up to encompass *all* of Hastings County, right up to the hillbilly backwoods of Bancroft, which is absolutely of a piece w/Ontario's ReformAllianceTory heartland. And Kramp, who comes from this heartland, has run well for the PCs against Larry McCormick twice in a row. Now that the baker's dozen's looking more like three times that amount or more, count this (esp. as an open seat) endangered...and that might have been the case even if North Hastings hadn't been annexed...
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We've made up our minds and have decided that this is going to go Conservative. Why? First of all there is no incumbant, that plays a big part. Second, liberals continue to drop in the polls and what they are retaining is concentrated in Toronto. The way things are going, it looks like it could be a massive Tory sweep of the rural areas of Ontario. Ray made an excellent point that Bellville will likely vote Liberal, however the Tory's will erode that vote base and they'll be solid in the rural areas. One to watch though our money is on blue.
26/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
One of a whole slew of rural/small town eastern Ontario ridings where reunited rightists are going to defeat Liberals in straight two-way races. Outside of downtown Ottawa, pockets of Kingston, Peterborough, and Cornwall, the NDP is not a factor, so the Liberal incumbents have to pray that there are enough red tories ready to go their way or even throw in their lot with the NDP to make up for any defections from their own ranks and keep the combined Alliance/Tory vote of 2000 from coelescing against them. On the whole, I think this is a very likely Conservative win.
24/05/04 Ernest Ownson
Email: ernestown@rogers,com
Considering that in the previous election the Alliance+PC vote total exceeded the number of Liberal votes, I think the Conservative Party will take this riding. Add to this the fact that Prince Edward County is an agricultural region, and family farmers are, for the most pary, unhappy with the Liberals right now, the Liberal support in the riding will be diminished. I doubt the Liberals will get as many votes in this riding as in the previous election.
23/04/04 Ray
Email: [hidden]
However much I would like to see the demise of the Liberals in PE-H I can't see this riding being too close to call. I agree that things are improved a lot now that Lyle will not be claiming his throne here and also that the riding re-distribution favours the tories, but I don't see it adding towards a conservative victory. Having worked in past elections and lived in the riding for 20 years, the voters of Belleville, the largest city in the riding, will not lean tory. If the conservatives can split Belleville, they may have a shot at a win. Also, if the NDP can manage to steal a few votes from the grits this would also help their chances in Belleville. This isn't likely given the weak NDP history in the riding. Lyle owned the county but now that he's gone, I'm not sure if it will stick Liberal either. It depends if people are upset enough about the sponsorship mess or not. The last 2 provincial elections have gone liberal, the last time in october 2003 by a significant margin. I would be interested to see how North Hastings voted in the last election. I understand this is a conservative area traditionally.
Another interesting note, somebody may correct me though, but with the exception of a provincial liberal win in '99 (by 50 something votes) this riding has traditionally had simultaneously different parties elected provincially and federally. Does this bode well for the conservatives now that they have a liberal MPP in Toronto? We'll see.
I'm predicting liberal, but I understand the reasoning for a 'too close to call' prediction. The last writer is correct with all the variables taken into accout, that things look good for the conservatives. My money is on the liberals however.
22/04/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
I'd actually have to say Liberal win. There seems to be natural liberal support here (I don't think this was a vote-splitting riding) and was Liberal provincially while McGuinty was in opposition. The entire Kingston and nearby Islands area is all Liberal for some reason.
29/03/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
Reason I believe the Conservatives will win in Prince Edward Hastings are as follows:
1)Huge CP membership in this riding (approximately 3500)
2)Large turnout to candidate nomination meeting (approximately 2000 members) which shows alot of interest.
3)Long-time incumbent Liberal Lyle Vanclief is retiring and will not be running in the next election.
4) New CP candidate, Daryl Kramp has a strong following of old PC and Alliance members and is considered to reflect a nice blend of both parties ideals and philosophies yet is centre/right enough to also swing some Liberals on the right.
5)Electoral boundary changes added an enormous rural area to Prince Edward Hastings since the last election. Most of this rural area has been polled and the results reflect the fact that the majority of voters there are Conservative supporters.
17/03/04 Fred Anderson
Email: [hidden]
The new Conservative Party would've won here pretty handily last time out, which is probably why Liberal incumbent Lyle Vanclief decided to get while the getting's good.
Now the Grits are offering up a sacrificial staffer and the Tories have 3 high-profile candidates and over 3,500 members. Whoever survives the nomination should take this one.

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