Election Prediction Project
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Pickering-Scarborough East

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:59 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:35 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Gary Dale
Tim Dobson
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Dan McTeague
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Matthew Pollesel

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (56.2%)
Hon. Dan McTeague
Scarborough East (43.7%)
Hon. John McKay
Scarborough-Rouge River (0.1%)
Derek Lee

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,005 60.15%
8,719 20.97%
5,829 14.02%
1,394 3.35%
627 1.51%

(90/200 polls, 39882/85501 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough East
(75/194 polls, 30959/71947 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Scarborough-Rouge River
(3/174 polls, 83/72054 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

24/06/04 Realist
Email: [hidden]
Andrew S, if that is so, then do you consider the housing north of Kingston in Scarborough Guildwood to be "affluent"? It is most certainly not. These areas north of Kingston would generally not vote conservative and therefore would drown out the conservative vote.
Anyhow, as much as I hate to say this, it appears to me that the Liberals will be re-elected in this riding. Going from what I'm hearing in Scarborough East and all the signs that I see on lawns, it looks as if McTeague will be re-elected for another term.
21/06/04 Andrew S
Email: [hidden]
As a resident of the riding, I have to add to the list of errors in Scarborough East Residents' claims. Guildwood is by far the most conservtive part of the old Scarborough East riding, likely because it is the most affluent. Cutting that base of conservative support out of this riding means the Conservatives won't carry much vote in the Scarborough East half. Pickering, I can't speak to as much.
10/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Can someone correct the record on Gary Dale's vote in the provincial election? It was more like 12.4 per cent (Elections Ontario). Let's keep our facts straight at least.
I might add that this is a very different riding from the one Gary Dale ran in provincially. In a similar scenario, with Liberals on the downswing, in 1990, both sides of this riding voted NDP. I still think it is a Lib-Tory horserace here, but if Jack Layton does well in the debate, who can tell?
09/06/04 Fairness Seeker
Email: [hidden]
Re: The musings of "Scarborough East Resident":
Can you explain to me what voters will do when they find out that the Conservative candidate ran under the Alliance banner in Halton during the 2000 election? McTeague should win this riding based solely on a proven record of representation with results - slightly a little more important to voters than his residency history. Moreover, McTeague lived in the riding for ten years and went to school in Scarborough as a lad. So then, why is there a reluctance for the Conservative candidate to talk about where he spent the last several years? Perhaps he does not want to inform voters that he is a itinerant "Alliance" candidate in search of a riding. Please, let's debate substantive issues here rather than grasping at straws. If residency is going to be permitted to be used on your site as an issue, let's be fair here and tell the full story - including that of the "Conservative" candidate.
09/06/04 Gary Dale
Email: garydale@ndp.ca
For the record, the NDP doubled it's standing in Scarborough East in the 2003 election despite the provincial avalanche to the Liberals (to make sure we got rid of the Conservatives). That's roughly 2.5 times the votes "Scarborough East Resident" claims we received.
05/06/04 Scarborough East Resident
Email: [hidden]
I think that the only reason why Scarborough East went liberal for so long was because of the more liberal Guildwood area. I find that residents there tend to support the Liberals or NDP more than they do the conservatives. The environment is a big issue in that area, making the NDP or Liberals a more likeable party. With some new housing complexes being built in the Scarborough East area, the NDP was hoping to shore up some support, which failed as despite the numerous signs posted on lawns, Gary Dale managed to get only 5% of the vote in the last provincial election. I do see many liberal signs in the Scarborough area, but I think that with the strong conservative base in Pickering this new riding will turn Conservative, although by a small margin. When more people start to discover that McTeague lives in Oakville, they will turn to the Conservatives or the NDP, creating vote-splitting and giving the Conservatives enough votes to push through as the winner.
04/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Too close to call at this point. NDP has yet to get its signs up. Libs and Tories are about even in this riding split between 416 and 905. Ridings like this will tell the tale - if Martin can hold these due to Harper's perceived hidden agenda. But the Layton effect in 416 gives Dale (NDP )back his 15-20 per cent and hurts a right-wing Liberal like McTeague who is anyway little known in the Scarborough part and suspect for his views on the family.
Oddly, this part of Scarborough is more small-town Ontario (everyone knows everyone else) and with its small university resembles a Guelph more than either mainline Scarboro or Pickering. It goes NDP under extreme circumstances (1990) as does Pickering... if Martin can right the ship it is a Liberal hold....IF.
I am not calling it yet.
28/05/04 Fact Checker
Email: [hidden]
Fact: McTeague no longer lives in the riding and now lives in Oakville. A point of Major contention with a lot of folks on the Pickering side.
Fact: Both Ecker and Gilchrist nearly held onto their ridings provincally and that was with a very popular former mayor running for the liberals. (Liberal Numbers aren't that good anymore thanks for Dalton and his fibbing friends)
Fact: Gas prices are pushing an all time high and Dan has done NOTHING about it except blow at the media.
Fact: Unlike McTeacge Dobson, Lives in the riding, works in the riding, his kids go to school in the riding. Dobson has a real degree and a very strong support.
Fact: Dales last provincial run, will have at least given him an element of name recognition. Not enough to win but perhaps enough for a vote split.
I would call this riding the Etobicoke-Lakeshore of the east. If Cappy pulls it out for the conservatives out there look for Dobson to carry it here.
27/05/04 C. S. C.
Email: [hidden]
I'm sad to say that I believe that it'll be another Liberal win in Pickering-Scarborough E. As much as I'd rather see the NDP grab it, the riding is completely suburban, so the race will be pretty much between McTeague and the guy the Conservatives are running.
27/05/04 Andrew S
Email: [hidden]
I live in this riding, the Scarborough half where McTeague doesn't have the incumbancy factor, and he's still as popular as ever. As far as I can tell, nobody here cares about Adscam, nor do we trust the CPC to not be the CA. I've heard one or two people question whether we should continue to call the CPC the Tories where the Liberals are the ones who act like Tories.
That said, Scarborough East tended to vote more Liberal in east half that's been added with Pickering to make this riding, and more conservative in neighbourhoods like Guildwood where they're far wealthier and there are far fewer immigrants. McTeague should carry a sizable majority of the votes in the Scarborough half of this riding, with the NDP only showing at all if a Liberal victory is assured, expect to see a lot of strategic voting here if things look close.
Pickering's part I can't speak to from personal experience, but the Liberal result there was only a little lower than in was in Scarborough East ... I expect McTeague will carry about 70% of the votes in Scaroborough and no less than 40% in Pickering, which should be good for the win.
25/05/04 Unknown
Email: [hidden]
Dan McTeague practically IS a conservative! His views are parellel with conservative views anyways. Nowadays, when someone calls themself a Liberal, with a capital L, you never know what they stand for. It all depends on the individual. But yep, here we have a bible-loving homophobic gas-consuming Liberal. This is a fairly upper Middle-class riding, but multicultural too. Immigrants tend to vote Liberal. He's in!
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
An epochal moment for Elections Canada: for the first time since I know not when, the integrity of Metro/Megacity Toronto has been breached, and we have a seat which straddles the 905 and 416--sure to cause havoc come the next municipal ward-boundary redraw. (Then again, all that gunk east of Highland Creek has always seemed a David Lynchian neverland relative to the rest of Metro/Mega.)
Got to hand it to McTeague. When he first won in '93, it was in a traditional low-Tory suburban bailliwick, and against a star Reform candidate to boot. And he lived up to his turf as a vocal member of the OntariGrits' right-populist caucus, and in spite of anything from CV fibbing to Welcome Back Khadr, his margin and mandate's grown with each election. And now, the ace in the hole: he's the biggest Liberal crusader against gas-gouging, and whaddaya know, we've got astronomically soaring gas prices like we've never seen before. On *that* count, he could well defy a MulroneyHarrisesque 905 Conservative sweep on pure maverick bravado...
17/05/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
Recent polling shows the Liberals at 40% nationally with the potential for a sweep in Ontario. The Tories will break through for about 10 seats in Ontario I expect but Pickering-Scarborough East won't be one of them. McTeague is a strong Martinite and his camp isn't going to let this riding get away. I'm a Tory but I can't see McTeague losing this one. Besides, the Scarborough portion of the riding heavily supports the Liberals provincially. Liberal hold.
26/04/04 John B
Email: [hidden]
McTeague is a media hound who is more concerned with getting his mug on TV than doing anything for his riding (thus the Khadr thing). He has spent the last 3 years being Martin's anti-Chretien quote guy in hopes of a cabinet post.
He will go down to the Conservitives more due the fact of his personal unpopularity than the shortcomings of his party.
22/04/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
I am only making another submission because there is new information that will affect the election and has not been posted yet.
Dan McTeague is the Minister responsible for bringing the Khadr family back to Canada. I don't know how much of an impact it will have in the riding. Certainly, it will hurt his chances here. Even another Liberal MP is trying to get this Al-Qaeda family deported. This will give this race a national profile. If the contest becomes a referendum on the Khadrs, then McTeague's political career is over. That move is very unpopular with people. People who don't follow politics very much, even they are still talking about it. Those people vote.
09/04/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
I thought this site was called Election prediction, not Election Hopes and Dreams, Tim must have hit the wrong link on Google or something. The redistributed results are extremely strong and Dan McTeague is a popular, well known and respected MP. The Conservatives would have to win in a landslide majority for this riding to be affected. This one is a lock, Liberals over 55% of the vote.
24/03/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
I would like to correct an obvious error in my first prediction. The Liberal MP actually has 56% of his old riding with him in this new riding, not 33% like I wrote. So, in fact, over half of the riding will be familiar with him. Probably more, since he does have a bit of a national profile. This is a definite plus for him. However, I still think the Conservative will win, but by a very narrow margin.
20/03/04 Tim
Email: [hidden]
This riding will be very close, but the Conservatives will win. The Liberal MP doesn't live anywhere near the riding anymore (other side of Toronto). His old riding makes up only about one third of this new riding, so most people don't know him in the new riding. Prior to the last election it was Conservative provincially. The largest employer in the riding is Ontario Power Generation's Pickering Nuclear facility (over 4000 direct and indirect). The company and employees were backing Canada's bid for an experimental fusion reactor in the region which would have provided 1000's of jobs. The Liberal government refused to support it. That's a lot of angry people. A lot of small "l" liberal support will go to the NDP because of the sponsorship scandal and the MP's mildly conservative social policy views.
15/03/04 905er
Dan McTeague holds this riding - no question. Strong appeal to small C conservatives, very active and popular M.P. and 60% of the Liberal vote in the last election (redistributed) all equal a fourth term for McTeague. His influence will also be felt in Ajax-Pickering where he is well liked and close to the Liberal candidate there.

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