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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:26 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:53 PM 18/03/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Mauril Bélanger
Ric Dagenais
Kevin Friday
Françoise Roy
Parti Marijuana Party:
Carol Taylor
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Raphaël Thierrin

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Ottawa-Vanier (100.0%)
Hon. Mauril Bélanger

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,621 55.49%
7,250 15.70%
7,145 15.48%
4,027 8.72%
2,128 4.61%

(226/230 polls, 83328/83576 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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20/06/04 H Walker
Email: [hidden]
And the results are in for Ottawa-Vanier... pretty well... here's the scoop:
Belanger, LIB 19400
Friday, CPC 12800
Dagenais, NDP 5800
Thierrin, GRN 1300
At least that's my best guess, derived by guessing which percentage of voters would switch parties, coupled with the fact that no cataclysmic demographic shift has occurred. So if I'm +/-5% for all four candidates, someone buy me a beer!
14/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
This riding will remain the Liberal holdout in Ottawa, even if the Liberals lose their other seats here. In The Ottawa Citizen today, it is projected that the Liberals will lose all of their Ottawa seats except this one, which they will win by 6,000 votes.
13/06/04 SEP
Email: [hidden]
If the Liberals are decimated as badly as the Tories were in 1993 they would still win Ottawa-Vanier.
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
I've always had an inkling that if Layton's campaign was/is running on all cylinders, Ottawa-Vanier, another of those eternal Safest Liberal Ridings In Canada, has got the makings of a "historic" NDP steal, sort of like "Broadbent East"--Lower Town, Sandy Hill, Manor Park would be a given, and if the MegaFrancoGrits of Vanier feel the need to express their anti-Adscam snarl, they'd probably find the NDP a more congenial option than "Da Alliance Conservatives". (Using what happened w/New Brunswick's Acadians in '97 as a model.) In fact, I see this as a more likely NDP pickup than Monia Mazigh's Ottawa South--relatively speaking of course. But history's tough to overturn, so I'll be sticking by a Liberal prediction...for now.
02/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Dear "Voice of the Common Man"...Thanks for both your recent posts on the demographics and history of the riding...I was taken aback by the decline in the "anglo" composition of the riding...I should have checked that out as well, but I can take some comfort from the fact that the new arrivals will tend to pick up English as their second language, though their varying ethnicity will be no quarantee of a particular shift in voting in the riding...But for this election, I can't see anything but a substantial Liberal victory...it will be interesting to see how Rothwell Heights/Beacon Hill North votes.
27/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
"both the demographics and increased size of the riding will tend to dilute, albeit slowly, the Liberal and Francophone community in Ottawa Vanier in the elections to come."
Actually, demographics are diluting not only francophone strength in this riding... but anglophone as well. Between 1996 and 2001, francophones went from 34.8 to 32.7% of the riding, and anglos from 48.2 to 45.1. The recent tinkering with the boundaries of the riding made no difference to these percentages, to the nearest tenth of a percent anyway.
23/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
To clarify, the 1925 riding of Russell corresponds best to the since-existing Ottawa East and Ottawa-Vanier; Vanier itself was in the old Russell.
It's true that in 2000 OV's ranking among Ontario Liberal ridings slipped, to about 30th. It looks aberrant to me, given that OV ws 8th and 10th in Ontario for Liberal vote in 1993 and 1997. I expect it will be back in that range this time.
23/05/04 TH
Email: [hidden]
Traditionally, the NDP have been extremely effective at getting out the vote. Energized by a new youth movement, the Ric Dagenais campaign is looking to shake the ground. It's quite possible that Mauril Bélanger is so well known compared to the other party's candidates, that he will prove impossible to topple. Bélanger's work on Francophone issues have also been impressive, but it's important to note that Dagenais is quite fluent in French and supportive of Francophone concerns. Mobilizing the student population in Sandy Hill and getting the vote out in 'yuppyish' areas of the riding, could garner Dagenais a lot of support. Undoubtedly, for the NDP to take this riding it's going to take a monumental effort and a lot of lucky bounces, but funny things happen during elections. And no one can deny that Jack Layton has re-energized the party. With Jack, Ed Broadbent and Olivia Chow all having fantastic chances of earning a seat in the House of Commons, the NDP's will be even better in the next election.
05/05/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Voice of the Common Man...I don't disagree with your prediction...I think Ottawa Vanier will go Liberal, but in fact, that last time the east end of Ottawa (the core of Ottawa Vanier) was "held" by the Conservatives was 1925...not 1882 (though I suspect you are thinking of the old Russell riding). The still older two-member riding of Ottawa was held back and forth between the Conservatives and Liberals, starting in 1911 and ending in 1930...Each time, the Conservatives nominated one francophone candidate and, though the East End voted Liberal...Conservatives were elected and held both of the two member seats in 1911, 1917 and 1925...
I would suggest if you extemporized a real landslide for the Conservatives, several other ridings in and around Metro Toronto, or Northern ontario, would stay Liberal after Ottawa Vanier dropped...ridings Like Scarborough-Rouge River, York West and York Centre are more Liberal than Ottawa is now and, as I noted before...both the demographics and increased size of the riding will tend to dilute, albeit slowly, the Liberal and Francophone community in Ottawa Vanier in the elections to come.
01/05/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
East-end Ottawa hasn't been represented by a Conservative since 1882. Do the math. Liberal hold. Just about every other seat in Ontario would fall before the Liberals lose this one.
26/04/04 full
Email: [hidden]
I don't know why this riding was listed as "too close to call" until the 18th, because as mentioned by other posters this is one of the safest liberal seats in Ontario. For example, Dalton McGuinty felt it was safe enough to appoint a candidate here back in the 2003 Ontario election inspite of a minor outcry against appointments. Like me, he felt this seat was safe enough to go Liberal any day. It has a large french speaking population, and that usually means Liberal. Especially when the Conservative candidate is from Alberta! Safe liberal seat, no matter ho unpopular the liberals get.
16/04/04 Somebody in Ottawa
Email: [hidden]
Ottawa-Vanier is one of the last two seats (the other being G-P-R) the Liberals would lose in Ontario in 2004. But I think this election could mark a turning point for ol' OV.
While Bélanger will win, I predict this will be the first time a Liberal gets less than 50% of the vote since 1984. The mood for change, combined with the demographic shifts Dean mentions, plus the coat-tail effect of both Broadbent and Mazigh running for the NDP will erode Liberal support.
If the NDP manage to nominate a decent francophone candidate, it will help them even more. In that event, my prediction for OV is: LIB-42%, CON-33%, NDP-20%, GRN-5%, and a lower than normal voter turn-out.
Results like this could move OV out of the "Liberal Fortress" category and put it into play in future elections.
06/04/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
While, I agree that Ottawa-Vanier will safely support the Liberals, I wanted to note that demographic change affects this riding as well. First, the riding has moved east to include quite well-to-do and non-francophone suburbs like Beacon Hill North. Thus far, these have not swung the riding to the Tories but may at some point. In 1999, the Conservatives made a good run by carrying Rockliffe, the DND air base and Beacion Hill by large margins. Old liberal enighbourhoiods like the Market are becoming majority Anglo with new condos opening up and New Edinburgh and parts of Sandy Hill are becoming quite yuppyish. All this has not upset Liberal majorities coming from Vanier, Pineview, Forbes Park and much of Lowertown, but it is a trend worth noting now, and applying perhaps in the following election.
17/03/04 BP
Email: [hidden]
One of the safest Liberal seats in Canada - let alone Ontario. Mauril Belenger will be returned with a large majority regardless of how the country votes.
17/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Mauril Belanger's biggest threat in this riding is his own health; he had a mild heart-attack in early 2003, and while he was back to work quickly, it does raise concerns for the future, given his relative youth.

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