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Ottawa Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:01 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:04 PM 07/05/2004

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  • Feb & Mar 04
  • Apr 04

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    Ed Broadbent
    Green Party/Parti Vert:
    David Chernushenko
    Canadian Action canadienne:
    Carla Marie Dancey
    Parti Marijuana Party:
    Michael Foster
    Robert G. Gauthier
    Louis Lang
    Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
    Richard Mahoney
    Mike Murphy
    Stuart Ryan

    Population 2001
    Number of electors 2000
    Nombre d'électeurs

    Incumbents/Les députés:
    Ottawa Centre (100.0%)

    2000 Result/Résultats:
    22,141 39.92%
    13,228 23.85%
    9,919 17.89%
    7,349 13.25%
    2,822 5.09%

    Ottawa Centre
    (255/255 polls, 92377/92377 voters)
    2000 Prediction/Complete Results

  • Ottawa Start - Your daily guide to Ottawa on the Web
    18/06/04 JD Porter
    Email: jaker_porter@hotmail.com
    Of the few party signs placed in store windows around downtown Ottawa, most are NDP interestingly, which is not what what might be expected. Especially notable along Bank street near the Liberal Headquarters.
    Maybe I am a bit cynical but these all seemed to pop up right after the polls predicted strongly for the NDP...
    I attened the local candidates' debate last night and was quite impressed - if the leader's debate had been anywhere near that quality, perhaps the average voter wouldn't be so cynical about politics. Unfortunately for Mike Murphy, he was left in the wake of the other 3 candidates present (Liberal, NDP and Green). I found Mahoney occasionally suffered from the same problem that Paul Martin seems to have - he keeps repeating the same sound bites over and over, without really addressing the question (even though he repeats the question before answering it). Still, he did perform better than I have seen him perform on TV versus Broadbent in the past. Broadbent, as most would have expected, was great.
    18/06/04 Honest Abe
    Email: [hidden]
    Yes, Ed Broadbent is the frontrunner, but as I stated previously: If Richard Mahoney wins, it will be because he worked his tail off. If Ed wins, it will be because of his name.
    17/06/04 The Insider
    Email: [hidden]
    I could write a book attacking Winn's poll, which incidentally has created a firestorm on this site, but those of us in the know, realize that Conrad's polls are bunk. Do any of the posters honestly believe Ed Broadbent will win by 20-points on election night? Or, that the incompetent Mike Murphy will best Richard Mahoney? Honestly people, if you believe this, wait until election day for a big surprise. Having said that, I don't think Mr. Broadbent's campaign liked this poll for the following reasons: 1) Green Party supporters can now vote Green and not strategically; 2) NDP supporters are becoming more and more complacent; and 3) Soft NDP support will be complacent about voting. Based on the fact that New Canadians overwhelmingly vote Liberal and rarely partake in public opinion polls; the fact that Stephen Harper can form a government, which scares soft NDP support and left-leaning Liberal support; the core Liberal support in Ottawa Centre; the fact that Mahoney and team have not given up and continue working hard; the Conservative candidate and team are morons; I think there's a slim possibility for a Liberal win. Before any of you get your knickers in a knot, consider these facts. Mr. Broadbent is the front runner, but stranger things have happened.
    15/06/04 Victor A.
    Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
    According to the new Compas poll, NDP and Broadbent have an OVERWHELMING support of 47 % of the diced voters, The Grits with Mahoney have 27 % and the CP with Mike Murphy has 22%. Honest Abe's *expertise* was of course misleading!!
    14/06/04 JustdaFax
    Email: regruve@hotmail.com
    1) National Post polling has Broadbent taking this riding by a large margin. see www.compas.ca
    2) Mondale did not lose the Senate race because of his concerns over his health, mental or otherwise. In fact, he held his own against Coleman in their debate. His campaign did, however, turn off voters when it was perceived -- rightly or wrongly -- that the Wellstone memorial was being cynically manipulated into a huge political rally.
    12/06/04 Aedan Shaughnessy
    Email: ashaughnessy28@hotmail.com
    Reality Check, Your assertions may be valid, but it is well known and confirmed that Richard Mahoney was a tobacco lobbyist, and loyal Martin supporter for the past ten years. As for the anti-gay stuff, it honestly wouldn't surprise me, given the fact that the provincial Liberals have a history of contentious homophobic tendencies. (It has been reported that Dalton McGuinty threatened to "out" George Smitherman in order to win the Liberal leadership in 1997.)
    Anyway, mudslinging aside, this riding is Ed Broadbent's, undisputedly. He leads Mahoney 47-27 in a recent Compas poll, and Mahoney has a good chance of finishing third. "Reality Check"'s inflammitory rhetoric and sweeping generalizations do nothing to help the fact that there is virtually no difference between Stephen Harper and Paul Martin. Both favour deep integration with the United States, public-private partnerships, and free trade. Ed Broadbent is the kind of politician longed for by Canadians, as he was "most trusted leader" consistently in polls in the '80's, and was the staunchest opponent of NAFTA.
    Prediction: NDP 52, CPC 23, LIB 21, Green 3, Other 1
    12/06/04 J
    Email: [hidden]
    A poll from today's Ottawa Citizen shows the NDP with a 35 point lead amongst decided voters. The NDP have 47%, the Liberals and Conservatives 22% each.
    12/06/04 Victor A.
    Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
    Yet again, Honest Abe is biaised and way out of touch with what is really going on in this Ottawa riding. In fact, most of the Tories I have talked to would prefer to have Broadbent elected and not Mahoney and many of them will vote strategically to elect Broadbent and therefore elect one less Liberal to the House of Commons. The Alliance-Conservative candidate is of course just as non-competitive as the ones from the other side of the river in Gatineau. Given Mr Broadbent's experience as well as his likeabilty he will be certainly chosen. He is doing a great job and his help in Monia Mazigh's riding seems to create momentum and suddenly Ottawa-South shapes up to be more competitive than it looked like... Ottawa-Centre is a surefire NDP pick-up.
    12/06/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Well "Reality Check", why don't you check out the latest "reality? The Compas poll out to day gives Broadbent almost a 2-1 lead over "hack" Mahoney. And, I might add that Compas is usually the most biased against the NDP of any polling company being shills for the National Post. I rest my case.
    Just goes to show that another poster was right when he pointed out that whenever Liberals start getting really nasty and personal in their postings about a given riding, its invariably because they are bitter about facing certain defeat there.
    Cheer up. Mahoney might still get the consolation prize of beating the Tory for second place.
    10/06/04 PB
    Email: [hidden]
    Yo, Reality Check, Abe, chill out, dudes! Read what I said carefully - it's not getting two pamphlets that's wrong, it's getting the SAME pamphlet (for a third time now - enough, already!) that's a bad sign. (It's like getting identical reports submitted by Groupaction...but I digress.) It's not that handing out issue sheets is bad, it's choosing to highlight an issue that's not top of mind or likely to sway voters you need to reach that's a sign of poor organization. If the NDP isn't running the kind of campaign or candidate you wanted, well, them's the breaks. Abe: If Ed stumping in Oshawa was wrong, was it also wrong for Ujjal Dosanjh to come out to Ottawa Centre to endorse Mahoney?
    Everybody relax, stop calling people names, look around the riding, and ask yourself: Does it look like the NDP are running 20 points ahead like the COMPAS poll said? I think it does. But I'm prepared to wait until election night to know for sure.
    10/06/04 Aric Houlihan
    Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
    Well it looks like this site's original prediction for the NDP here was correct and we can now wrap this one up despite some of the controversy below. On the front page of The Ottawa Citizen today the COMPASS poll says that Ed Broadbent is going to win Ottawa Centre by a large margin as he is 20 points ahead of the Liberals.
    10/06/04 Nick Patrick
    Email: [hidden]
    Please take a look at today's Ottawa Citizen. A new poll of Ottawa Centre has Mr. Broadbent at 47%, Mr Mahoney at 27% and Mr. Murphy at 22%. And this is from the Ottawa Citizen.
    10/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
    Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
    This riding is solidly behind Broadbent. Based on a COMPAS poll in today's National Post (June 11, 2004) of 12 key ridings, Ed Broadbent has a 20% lead on Liberal candidate Richard Mahoney. The leder statesman of social democracy is returning to the hill. NDP gain unequivocally.
    09/06/04 Reality Check
    Email: [hidden]
    Hey DL: The D still stands for Dummy and the L for Liar! I see you have now changed your tune about Richard Mahoney being Chief of Staff to Lyn McLeod, to top advisor. Richard Mahoney was President of the Ontario Liberal Party -- he never worked for Lyn McLeod! Your lies about Mahoney advising McLeod to be anti-gay are shameful and despicable. You should read Steve Pakin's book for the truth, ask Alex Munter, or any other member of the gay and lesbian community...you'll be laughed out of the triangle!!! As for your polling numbers about the NDP, even with Ed Broadbent, your room for growth is limited with special thanks to Jack Layton, NDP platform, and voting NDP elects Stephen Harper. BTW: The NDP posters persist in telling lies about Liberal posters, and the Liberal posters persist in telling the truth about the NDP posters.
    09/06/04 Honest Abe
    Email: [hidden]
    Things that make you go Hmmm: The NDP posters cite that Richard Mahoney has mailed 2 brochures to the entire riding, was gladhandling at the Loblaws in Westboro, is riding the buses, has issue pieces being dropped at every door, was canvassing in their neighbourhood and saw him at various community functions, but that he's imploding. Wow. But honestly folks, what is Ed Broadbent doing to earn the support of our community? His newest brochure only contains a host of people saying nice things about him. We already know this! The Citizen reported he was at his cottage for the weekend. Are there voters at hios cottage? He was campaigning for Sid Ryan Ottawa Centre in Oshawa! Are there Ottawa Centre voters in Oshawa? The way I see it is that the race is going to be close. If Richard mahoney wins, it will be because he worked his tail off. If Ed broadbent wins, it will be because of his name. I am betting that Richard Mahoney wins, and my consolation prize is that if Ed wins, when he retires again, we will never see the NDP again in Ottawa Centre! Now that makes me go Hmmm.
    08/06/04 bubba
    Email: [hidden]
    Are the Liberals smoking crack? The Conservatives and Greens are not a factor in this riding. Period. Mac Harb consistently tried distracting voters away from the NDP by claiming the Tories/Alliance etc were his main competition. Every time the NDP came second on the ballot. Most people can't even name the other candidates. They're not on people's radar. I'm a politically literate guy, and all I know about the Green guy is he has a long, unspellable/unpronouncable name. The NDP platform is as green as anything the Greens could cook up so why waste the vote on a no-hoper?
    One last thing. Mahoney's fortunes are inextricably linked to Martin's--what with his close relations to the Big Man. Martin might squeak out a minority. Mahoney won't. Broadbean will take this one.
    Email: [hidden]
    The race is Broadbent's to lose.
    Mahoney has basically withdrawn from the streets due to the anger from voters. The Liberal vote has collapsed so his supporters are left to type nasty self-serving e-mails and distributing printed sorry-I-missed-you post-it notes for a candidate who is no longer there.
    Murphy can only win if the Conservatives sweep the whole country, and Ed's organization totally collapses. Not likely!
    06/06/04 MJL
    Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
    A bunch of those predicting a Liberal win are hedging on a Conservative collapse. Now, the polls being released show very much the opposite trend (the Conservatives are actually in the lead in Ontario - surely this is not indicative of a collapse). Air-time on the bilingualism matter was limited, while the Conservative stance on abortion is actually the same as Paul Martin's. The Conservatives are not collapsing, and this will not save Mahoney from Ed Broadbent (who will win). I should add, the NDP is now at 23% in the polls in Ontario - that's up about 15 from 2000, which would definitely put them in contention in this riding.
    Lets say the Conservatives do collapse though, where are they going to go? The biggest motivating factor for CPC voters is that they hate the Liberals. They will likely stay home, or vote for Broadbent, to protest the Liberals. In particular, Broadbent may play well among former PC voters - many voted for Clark with the classical conservative notion of voting for the best leader (Clark consistently outperformed others in the 2000 election on that indicator).
    06/06/04 PB
    Email: [hidden]
    I'm starting to figure that the Liberals will lose every riding where the Liberal predictors are getting personal...such as this one. It's a clear sign of frustration.
    The "insider" misses D.A.'s not so lucid point...there's no thought of the Conservatives "sneaking up the middle" in Ottawa Centre. Murphy may "sneak" by an imploding Mahoney to finish second. Maybe. The argument to potential NDP supporters could go "you have to vote Liberal to stop Harper from winning", but there is very little evidence of that argument working here. In my own poll, won by Harb last time roughly 100-60 over Robertson, there isn't a single Liberal sign on private property. Not one! I remember a good half-dozen last time. There is one Murphy sign, and no fewer than 14 Broadbent, at least twice the normal amount. In the Dovercourt area, Broadbent has a surprising advantage in the sign campaign, but over Murphy, not Mahoney. Mahoney's nowhere. The Glebe and Rideau Gardens look similar - these are polls Mahoney needs to win, but they appear to be going solidly NDP. And in the Centretown part of the riding...at least Mahoney has some presence, but as expected, it's overwhelming NDP.
    Mahoney was out at the new Loblaws is Westboro, shaking hands on Saturday morning. His staff were handing out pamphlets with a "law and order" message. Does he really think that's where the fight is? Between that, and getting the same pamphlet mailed to my house twice, I've really got to wonder what's going on at HQ. It's kind of a shame, Mahoney would have been an improvement over Mac "The Invisible MP" Harb. But this one won't be close.
    06/06/04 Joe
    Email: [hidden]
    What a jumble this riding is. I have spoken to Liberals voting Conservative in the hope that the liberals lose so Martin will go and either Copps or Manley can take over. I have seen NDP and Conservative lawn signs on lawns that had liberal signs during the provincial election.
    I have talked to people who are voting NDP because they like Ed Broadbent, and people who have asked me who is the candidate most likely to win against Ed because they don't want Ed. A lot of people are talking about voting Green as a protest vote. Should be fun on election night. my prediction is all three major party candidates near 30% of the vote, with Ed winning a squeeker. Green will get between 6% and 10%.
    04/06/04 V.L.
    Email: [hidden]
    While I would like to see a Harper Government, I'm not really sure who the Conservative candidate is, and I haven't seen many blue signs other than some scattered on Westboro lawns. I don't think the CP can win Ottawa Centre. Ed Broadbent looks likely to win the riding. Conservative, Liberal and NDP voters will turn out for Ed..he's all the rage.
    04/06/04 Katarzyna
    Email: [hidden]
    I am surprised to see the that your site predicts the NDP will win this riding. I would never have voted liberal in previous elections, but this time I am very impressed by the local liberal candidate, Richard Mahoney, and believe he will win -although it will be a very close race. Mr Broadbent certainly has name recognition, a powerful plus in any race. But, those voters old enough to remember the old Ontario "Rae Days" (when people were asked to take vacation from work _without pay_!!) will not vote NDP, despite any respect they may have for Mr Broadbent personally. Mr Mahoney may have less name recognition but has a proven record of community leadership. He's been a real community activist and leader helping immigrants, securing funding for public transit in Ottawa, fighting to preserve local libraries and the _first_ to take the National Capital Commission to task for its bad decision-making and lack of community consultation. These are the issues that matter to people in this riding.
    04/06/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Dear DA...Talk about a fool and his vote being soon parted...A New Democrat voting Liberal in a riding where the Conservatives have little to no chance and where the NDP is likely leading seems utterly bizarre...
    I went through Centretown, the Glebe and Ottawa South neighbourhoods yesterday and they look heavily blanketed with NDP signs...even near Mahoney's home. A fellow civil servant is taking an NDP sign and there are lots of others in her neighbourhood of Westboro in the more suburban west end of the riding...I don't see an NDP landslide in the making, but I do see a clear NDP lead...
    04/06/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Given that the NDP polled 24% in Ottawa Centre in 2000 with a no name candidate, it is clearly one of the lowest hanging pieces of fruit in Canada for the NDP. The NDP polls in the riding back in Decemeber showed Broadbent with a 20 point lead and that was BEFORE the sponsorship scandal and the McGuinty budget etc...
    and BTW: It is a matter of public record that Mahoney was a top advisor to Lyn McLeod in 1994-1995. His background as an Ontario Liberal backroom boy was the reason he was put on the Studio Two panel. He was right in there during the 1995 campaign giving his expert advice to McLeod on how she could win the election by appealing to anti-gay bigots. I'm sure its an episode in his career he doesn't like to be reminded of.
    03/06/04 A.S.
    Email: adma@interlog.com
    If anything can stop the inexorable Broadbent swing now, it's "Walter Mondale in 2002" concerns over his health and lucidity. (Remember: one of the factors that clipped Mondale's last-minute bid for Paul Wellstone's Minnesota U.S. Senate seat was that he looked and sounded old and unhealthy.) Right now, the Broadbent bulldozer is looking like other NDP campaigns across the country and province *ought to be* looking--yet all too often tragically aren't. (Ah, smoke and mirrors...)
    03/06/04 The Insider
    Email: [hidden]
    I agree with D.A. that some people who were intending on voting for Ed will now be voting Liberal to halt the Conservative momentum. Word in Ottawa Centre is that ardent NDP supporters will remain with Ed, but soft-support will go Liberal to prevent Murphy from coming up the middle. All Murphy would need to win is 30%-35%, if you factor 5%-7% for Chernushenko, 1% for others, and Broadbent and Mahoney diviing-up the remainder. This race is getting closer with every hour that ticks-off the electoral clock. What it will boil down to is the second choice for soft-voters. Will Conservatives want Ed Broadbent as their member, and will NDPers want Mike Murphy as their member. I can only surmise from what I hear is that soft-NDP will bleed to Mahoney, with soft-Conservative also bleeding to Mahoney, thereby electing him in a too close to call election night cliffhanger.
    03/06/04 A.S.
    Email: adma@interlog.com
    If anything can stop the inexorable Broadbent swing now, it's "Walter Mondale in 2002" concerns over his health and lucidity. (Remember: one of the factors that clipped Mondale's last-minute bid for Paul Wellstone's Minnesota U.S. Senate seat was that he looked and sounded old and unhealthy.) Right now, the Broadbent bulldozer is looking like other NDP campaigns across the country and province *ought to be* looking--yet all too often tragically aren't. (Ah, smoke and mirrors...)
    02/06/04 D.A.
    Email: [hidden]
    I live in Ottawa Centre and have heard talk from several Ed Broadbent supporters of casting strategic votes for the Liberals. If sending a Liberal thwarts the surging Conservatives, many in the riding may do so.
    02/06/04 Honest Abe
    Email: [hidden]
    Given the Green Party's presence in the riding, the massive vote totals the Liberals have rang-up in the past, the implosion of the local Conservative candidate and his party, Richard Mahoney should win a close race. The electorate across the country is volatile and doubly more so in Ottawa Centre. I suspect the electorate is divided between electing Mahoney, a local guy with strong possibilities of entering cabinet, and Ed Broadbent an NDP icon. The wildcard is do they want a Stephen Harper government? I suspect no. Therefore, will they opt for Broadbent to give a strong voice from the opposition ranks, or will they opt for Mahoney to give a strong voice from the government ranks. Ottawa Centre does not want Haper and but we do want a strong voice in government. Mahoney wins a close race.
    02/06/04 Reality Check
    Email: [hidden]
    Hey DL: Does the D stand for Dummy with the L representing Liar? Richard Mahoney was given a perfect 10+ rating from the Canadians for Equal Marriage. Now that we have the D for you, what about the L? Richard Mahoney was never Lynn McLeod's Chief of Staff! Now that we have the L for you, let's move on to a more serious analysis. The only way an NDP candidate could win this riding is by nominating Broadbent. The NDP did that and now they are in contention to win the seat. No other NDPer would have had a chance! This is a close race and that will come down to election night. Ed is not working! He is going to his cottage, not canvassing and running away from Jack@$$. His new brochure does not even mention Jack@$$, the NDP policies or Ed's past policy initiatives. It solely mentions people saying what a nice guy he is! Ed's running on his name -- that's all. We all know he's a nice guy, but what will he do for us in Ottawa Centre? As for province-wide trends, Jack@$$ will probably lose his own seat! Why else would he have Marilyn Churley run his campaign! Moreover, the NDP will not even match their seat total of 1997 (21-seats). Like many elections, I am sure Dummy Liar (DL) will be crying all night after the results are announced!
    Email: [hidden]
    Assuming that the cons will implode (and it has already started with comments on rolling back bilingualism and restricting abortion rights) you have to give this to Ed. People are angry with the liberals but Ottawa Centre residents won’t be able to stomach the social conservatism of the CPC. A vote for Broadbent will be the only vote to punish the Liberals that people in this riding will be able to live with.
    01/06/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    Just based on province wide trends this seat would easily go NDP, even if the candiadte was a complete nobody. Add on the Broadbent factor and we are looking at NDP LANDSLIDE.
    PS: Its nice that Mahoney poses as such a friend of GLBT community. I wonder if any of them ever ask about his role as Lyn McLeod's chief of staff in 1994-1995. Apparently he was the one who advised to her to appeal to the bigot vote by single handedly killing same sex spousal benefits. i wonder if he has ever admitted to his role and begged for forgivenness.
    28/05/04 joe
    Email: [hidden]
    The only safe preiction in this riding is that the greens will not win (but I expect them to do better than last time). at this point from what I have seen and heard in the riding, anyone of the big 3 can win it. Should be fun on election night unless something major happens to boost one candidate.
    28/05/04 Kieran
    Email: [hidden]
    Results from the 2000 election:
    Mac Harb (Liberal): 22,716
    Heather-jane Robertson (NDP): 13,516
    David Brown (Reform/Alliance): 10,167
    Beverley Mitchell (PC) : 7,505
    Ed Broadbent has to take 5600 votes from Richard to come even with him. A difficult feat. Much of the predictions which put the election in favour of NDP candidate Ed Broadbent are basing that on name recognition - "Everyone remembers Ed Broadbent." But realistically, Ottawa Centre contains a significant number of communities of new Canadians. These people do not remember Ed Broadbent, his name means nothing to them. They do remember Mac Harb, and that he and the Liberal Party have done a great deal for new Canadians. In addition, Richard Mahoney is a lawyer who has done a great deal of pro bono immigration work helping out those same new Canadians. So he, like Mac Harb, is very much in their favour.
    Further, Ottawa Centre has a thriving GLBT community. Richard Mahoney has been a constant presence in and supporter of that community. Last year he hosted the Pride Day volunteers breakfast. EGALE has rated candidates in terms of their support for equal marriage rights, and Richard has received the highest rating EGALE gives.
    The Conservative Party is not a strong presence in the riding. Even if the new Conservative Party retained all those votes, it is still not enough to overtake the Liberal vote. And realistically, Conservative candidate Mike Murphy has been very slow out of the gate in this election, and has not achieved significant presence in the riding. Mahoney and Broadbent were campaigning long before Murphy got into the game. If Mahoney loses any voters on the left, he will pick it up from disillusioned ex-PCs on the right.
    And finally, the Green Party has a strong and popular candidate in David Chernushenko. David will likely pick up more than the 1531 votes the Green Party won in 2000, and those will come at the cost of Ed Broadbent.
    26/05/04 Will
    Email: [hidden]
    At first I thought Broadbent would win in a walk, but after seeing Liberal signs in the western parts of the riding and the support Chernushenko may bleed from Ed in Centretown and the Glebe, I think it will be a close one. I agree with people who say this will be a vote based on candidates and not parties. In the end I think it will be based on organization on the ground. (I've gotten a flyer from Broadbent and Mahoney, and two calls from Mahoney).
    23/05/04 Mark
    Email: [hidden]
    This riding will go NDP for sure. This is solely on Broadbent's name and the respect he has in the country and community. If it was anyone else running here for the NDP, Mahoney and the Liberals would have won easily. This in reality is a very Liberal and Martin friendly riding. Greg in a previous post stated that the sign war is a dead heat. I am unsure where he is looking because Broadbent is dominating in that respect. Every second or third house has a NDP sign.
    23/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    With the campaign apparently hours from commencement, two polls show a big drop in Liberal support in Ontario...
    A few anecdotal trends or facts...In Carleton Heights, the Conservative signs are finally sprouting. Secondly, Mike Murphy's website has a most interesting section...almost like a candidate's diary, where he is canvassing, what are his reactions etc...It shows him running a smart campaign for the Conservatives...targetting middle class areas like Westboro, Richmond, Carleton Heights, areas in the south and west that went Conservative in the very close contest in 1999 provincially. Third, I have yet to meet a civil servant who intends to vote Liberal in this riding...There is also in those I know, a dislike of the Liberal candidate as a manipulative insider, and a corresponding affection for Broadbent as a very safe choice for those not normally New Democrat.
    All of this is anecdotal...and more statistically valid comments from others are welcome to me...
    23/05/04 Dave
    Email: trickywoo29@hotmail.com
    I'd love to know how gerg figures that "conservative support is coming to the Liberals". I have acquaintances canvassing with each of the major candidates, and the overwhelming feedback when asked their support is "Not Liberal".
    Even Mahoney is getting this from alot of (if not most) people on the doorstep -that says alot since this riding is generally a pretty polite and cards-tight-to-their-chest crowd. And jb is bang on the money that his rally with those parashuted ex-'Dippers reeked of desperation ...much like the Grit campaign strategy as a whole already does.
    This riding will be a close 3-way finish. The 3 major parties will all get in the 30's. The mitigating factors are a strong Green candidate, and whether voters will in the end prefer the star candidate of the 4th party, or someone in opposition (govt-in-waiting) against a Grit minority.
    I'm inclined to think it'll be the latter after the Grit campaign implodes (as it surely will since the Party pretty much has already, plus the attacks won't work on Harper). Also, the combined CA-PC vote was 8% higher than NDP vote in 2000 -that 31% on the right is not going anywhere.
    If voters really are upset about politics as usual - ie. Chernushenko gets 8-10% and many other undecided (though decidedly not Liberal) voters go for the fresh candidate, instead of an ex-party leader - then give this one to the Conservative candidate, Mike Murphy.
    23/05/04 Graydon
    Email: [hidden]
    Anybody who thinks this riding is definitely going New Democrat is nuts.

    This race is neck and neck and will come down to who pulls on E-Day. The NDP votes are concentrated in areas of traditionally low voter turnout, and if anybody thinks Ed has the more energetic teams they obviously have not been to Mahoney's campiagn office.
    Ed's name may be bigger than the NDP and certainly well known in the riding, but Mahoney has been working in this community for twenty years. He promotes a very popular Cities agenda, and is probably responsible for helping to get the $450 million in transit cash from the Mayor, the Premier, and the Prime Minister. Ed could never do that as an M.P. for this riding, people realize this, and they will vote for Mahoney on E-Day.
    23/05/04 PB
    Email: [hidden]
    Gerg (or is that Greg?): The sign war is a dead heat??? Only on Island Park Drive - in the truly swanky part of the riding, where there are as many Ed signs as Mahoney signs (and even a few Murphy signs!). In the Dovercourt area, which has been solidly Liberal, Ed clearly has lots of support. Downtown/Hintonberg/Mechanicsville...fuggedaboutit. Riding-wide, the Broadbent name factor draws at least 10 percentage points of core Liberal support directly to the NDP camp. It's not like Mahoney won't get his deposit back, but under current circumstances, he won't win here.
    19/05/04 Aric Houlihan
    Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
    I am working as a volunteer for the Ed Broadbent team in Ottawa Centre. The last time I was out canvassing door to door, the majority of people I spoke to planned either to vote for Ed or seriously consider it. And those who did not plan to vote NDP always recognized the name as being connected with experience, integrity and respect. The NDP often places a strong 2nd in Ottawa Centre anyway, and with a candidate like Ed Broadbent, this will encourage the voters here to chose Ed as the candidate for the job.
    19/05/04 James Bow
    Email: [hidden]
    Ed will get this riding. He'll certainly pull the NDP vote here well above the provincial average. The residents of Ottawa Centre know that they're electing the new elder statesman of the next parliament, and a number of Liberal and even Conservative voters will be drawn that way. Thus Ottawa Centre will become one of four ridings I expect the NDP to take in Ontario.
    19/05/04 The Insider
    Email: [hidden]
    How desperate is Mike Murphy? With Progressive Conservatives heavily shifting to the Mahoney camp, Murphy's campaign has sunk so low that they are putting 2 and 3 of their lawn signs on a single house in the Carleton Heights area. Anyone knowing Ottawa Centre politics, knows Carleton Heights is a last bastion of Progressive Conservative support, that has been painted Red for Mahoney. In addition, how long was Murphy's website up and running with the legal authorization missing? I am sure the Liberals and NDPers are aware of this. I also understand that a citizen (voting NDP) in the Carleton Heights area witnessed Murphy's campaign tearing down Mahoney signs and this citizen will be lodging a complaint with the Police. All in all a very bad campaign for the Conservative candidate will help Mahoney win a close race.
    16/05/04 gerg
    Email: mcgreg@rogers.com
    I'm surprised to see a change to NDP in Ottawa Centre on this site. The sign war is a dead heat and conservative support is coming to the Liberals with Stephen Harper and JAck Layton as motivating incentives. Martin is very popular in this riding, even among NDP support, for slaying the deficit and being forthcoming about the sponsorship scandal.
    I give the Liberals with Mahoney under Martin the seat and say it will be by as many votes as the Liberals got in 1999 with Richard Patten and Dalton McGuinty provincially. In that one, the NDP thought they were players and found that the tectonics of the riding had shifted to the right. That shift will not be benefit Harper, but will benefit Paul Martin.
    My money's on Mahoney.
    13/05/04 Young Voter
    Email: [hidden]
    I used to live in Ottawa West-Nepean and have since moved to Ottawa-Centre. One of the most striking differences around election time is that most people in Ottawa West-Nepean are talking about political parties and their leaders; in Ottawa-Centre, the discussion seems to be more focused on the candidates running in the riding (as an engineer, it pains me not to have some statistical analysis to back this up, so keep in mind that this is a fairly subjective observation, pending further investigation).
    For that reason, I have to give Ed Broadbent the nod. This is partly due to his past experience, and partly from my observations of appearances by both Broadbent and Mahoney on shows such as CBC's Politics. Mahoney seems to shy away from debating with Broadbent. Every time I see these two on TV, Mahoney comes across as a weak candidate. Now, that could very well change during the election (I myself am very eager to attend candidates' meetings), but if this pattern holds, then I predict that Broadbent will win. If Mahoney wants a better shot, he's going to have to come off as more eager to win.
    In response to an earlier comment about Joe Varner not helping Murphy, I would say that's all the better for Murphy. Between the 4 major parties in the provincial election (I include the Green party), Varner was by _far_ the weakest candidate. He could not think on his feet, could not answer a question without reading directly from his party's brochures and acted in a downright condescending manner at times to pointed questions from potential voters.
    12/05/04 jb
    Email: [hidden]
    That press conference with Chris Axworthy and Ujjal Dosanjh was just plain freakin' out WEIRD. I mean, do Axworthy and Dosanjh even know who Richard Mahoney IS, or were they just brought in as some sort of "me too" counter-demonstration to the Broadbent press conference? The Liberals in Ottawa Centre are just plain desperate. Ed's baaaaaaaack!
    12/05/04 Lisa MacLeod
    Email: lisam@bluedraft.com
    Very nice to hear that my husband and I are considered top tories in Ottawa Centre. But to be clear, Mike Murphy has our full support and likely that of close to 35% of the riding. This one appears to be tooooooo close to call, but may I remind folks that a great NDP campaign means good Conservative Government- Murphy's got a shot coming up the middle.
    12/05/04 Victor A.
    Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca
    This one will be among the most hotly contested races in the country, no doubt about that. It'll be also one of the closest ones in Ontario. The Martinites would do all they can do to elect Mahoney but I think that even though Mahoney will come close, he won't be able to catch Mr Broadbent by any stretch of imagination. Heavy funding by the Liberal party will however guarantee a strong second place and will avoid embarrassment for Mr Mahoney. There is a huge support for Mr Broadbent here and a quite credible NDP base. last time they got over 24% of the votes which is a quite credible result given the weaker leader and weaker candidate they had last time around. There will be a lot of strategic voting as well especially by the Martin(ite) hating Conservatives as well as people that think that Mahoney is opportunist. The whole proces of selecting Mahoney and the media attention surrounding it was yet again another factor in Broadbent's favor given the bad press Mahoney has received.
    12/05/04 C. Hubley
    Email: [hidden]
    Of course "NDP are desperate and will try and pull a fast one with their brochures." However this does not seem to bother the kind of reactive neurotic people who vote NDP, so I predict it will have absolutely no impact, and Broadbent will win this - people who wanted to vote Conservative might just not vote at all, or maybe the Conservatives will get desperate and nominate someone electable by mistake? Or the Greens might pick up the formerly Conservative votes in case some Conservatives who can read actually pick up and read the Greens' fiscally conservative platform. Can any Conservatives actually read? I'm not sure.
    What I'm sure of, is, Joe Clark always won his own seat, and Ed Broadbent will probably win his. The comparison is apt: the trustworthy old warhorse of an undead party. People won't vote for the Party because of the warhorse, but when offered a chance to ride the warhorse himself, people usually do. It's kind of a status symbol to say "I was the last one to vote for..." especially among the kind of old farts who talk politics too much. Like us. ;)
    11/05/04 The Outsider
    As someone who isn't really involved in the nitty gritty of the political process I've got to think Mr. Mahoney will win this seat. I don't know much about polls or policy but I do know that Mr. Mahoney has personally been to my door once and people canvassing on his behalf were back again this past weekend.
    10/05/04 The Insider
    Email: [hidden]
    More bad news for both Mr. Broadbent and Mr. Murphy: The Conservative organization in the riding is imploding. The best Conservative organizer in the riding, Lisa MacLeod has gone to more winnable pastures and is running Pierre Poilievre's campaign in Nepean Carleton. To make matters worse, Mike Murphy has not reached out to past provincial candidate, Joe Varner. He is now off to more winnable pastures and will be helping Walter Robinson. I also hear that Mr. Murphy hates canvassing and has done very little. If you combine these recent developments with Mahoney's lengthy endorsement lists of Tories in the riding, it serves the Liberals very well. Top Tory strategists are prediciting that a 7% drop in their core support in Ottawa Centre at the minimum. If the Mahoney camp can garner most of this support, it will put them over the top in a close race.
    10/05/04 ARD
    Email: ardrummo@hotmail.com
    Just noticing the previous comment. I think I would agree that Ed Broadbent has the exact kind of power that Joe Clark has. An old, very respected politician. The point I would like to make is that although the Tories didn't do so well last time, Joe did win his seat.
    08/05/04 Stevo
    Tentative nod to Mahoney for the Liberals. Ed Broadbent may have star power, but it's of the same variety as that of Joe Clark. That is, people may respect and admire him, but they will stop short of voting for him. This is a traditionally Liberal seat and Mahoney has a strong organization with the entire Martin machine to back him up. Ed Broadbent would have had a better chance running in his native Oshawa instead of in Ottawa-Centre.
    06/05/04 Reality Check
    Email: [hidden]
    The recent posting from NDP supporters are why this party will never govern Canada. The Insider posts true facts, and these Dippers desperately try to deflect that Ed screwed-up royally. In fact, I quote from an Ottawa Citizen editorial, "They used to call him Honest Ed, a paragon of integrity and sober judgment. On Tuesday, however, Ed Broadbent became Sneaky Ed, as he pulled a fast one on Ottawa voters." Moreover. Ed's own website continues to post this press release with fictitious endorsements. I must agree with The Insider that the NDP are desperate and will try and pull a fast one with their brochures. I leave them with another quote from the same editorial, "There are foolish stunts in any election campaign, but this one could be costly. A first-time candidate could be forgiven, but Mr. Broadbent has been around long enough to know better. As well, Mr. Broadbent has campaigned more on his personal reputation than on his party's policies. If the NDP sees Ed Broadbent as a brand, that brand has been damaged."
    05/05/04 DL
    Email: [hidden]
    This riding would be an easy NDP pickup even if Broadbent were not running. The NDP could run a total nobody in Ottawa Centre and win in the current context. In 2000, the NDP took 24% of the vote ehere while getting just 8% across Ontario. Now most polls show the NDP returning to its traditional 19-20-21-22 range in Ontario. With that big an increase anbd a rising tide raising all ships a seat like Ottawa Centre is like a ripe peach waiting to fall into the NDP's lap. With Broadbent, the victory margin will go from 4,000 to 8,000. Who is Mahoney anyways? Just a tired Liberal backroom hack whose biggest claim to fame was helping run Lyn McLeod's campaign into the ground in 1995. If he was smart he would resign as Liberal candidate and plead with Martin to find him a seat that was remotely winnable to run in. Though if he loses, I'm sure Martin will appoint him ambassador somewhere.
    05/05/04 Somebody in Ottawa
    Email: [hidden]
    Judging from Insider's last post, I'd say it's the Liberals who are freaking out over who's supporting Ed (and not supporting Mahoney). Even Penny Collenette's been seen showing Ed around to new-found supporters.
    It's clear the Insider is just posting whatever he overhears people blabbing about in the Mahoney campaign office... and there seem to be a lot of negative feelings there. They see the loss coming, have started to panic and are starting to get silly.
    I trust Mahoney has enough class to resist the urge to go negative and ride out his first election defeat with his dignity in tact.
    05/05/04 Dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Insider...Desperate? Hardly...more just careless...the Writ hasn't been dropped yet...No one, let alone Ed Broadbent, is panicking and desperate...
    Ed's campaign might have wanted to add a few more luminaries to the list of Joe Clark who wants to see him elected...a bit silly to draw endorsements from compliments, but that is far from the worst sin I have seen in politics.
    Anyway, the NDP is running 18-20% in Ontario...up from 8% in 2000. What does that say in a riding that they got 24% last time. There are a lot of grumpy civil servants out there who see Ed as a very safe vote to cast to make a point to the Martin government as employer.
    It looks like the Libs are gearing up for a May 16 call and a June 28 election...I'll not fail to pump my NDP friends for inside views of their campaign and I hope you are equally succcesful with yours. Cheers!
    04/05/04 The Insider
    Email: [hidden]
    This newest tidbit will break before this gets posted, but what is with the NDP campaign? Why are trying to mislead the public about "so-called" ensorsements from Liberals and Conservatives for Mr. Broadbent. Already, both Hugh Segal and Lloyd Axworthy have flatly denied their endorsement of Ed. Yes, they said nice things about Ed, but in no way did they endorse him. Moreover, it was when he was head of the Centre on Rights and Democracy. More will probably come to fruition by the time this gets posted. Anyway, the Broadbent camp must be running scared or the NDP prefer to mislead voters ala jack Layton style on just about any subject. While I may be tempted to believe the NDP are simply Laytonites, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and posit they are running scared. Since most people on this site are predicitng Ed's victory, the laytonites of Ottawa Centre should read these postings rather than see Mahoney pull ahead in signs, canvassed doors, press, workers on the ground, etc. This is still a close race because of Ed broadbent being a respectable politician and a nice gentleman. However, the NDP is still the NDP and Mahoney will win. As for the pretenders on this site, better luck next time.
    01/05/04 Nick Patrick
    Email: [hidden]
    If anyone doubts Broadbent's appeal to new Canadians, check out China town. After receiving the endorsement of Ping J. Chiu, President Federation of Ottawa-Carleton Chinese Organizations, All the shops on the main strip have Broadbent signs in the window. If you want to see what Richard Mahoney is up to check out his webpage, besides finding "The Insider" registered on the Mahoney message board, you can find pictures of Mahoney taking part in walk to work day. He was able to pull together a dozen students and liberal staffers to walk with him to Parliament Hill. Funny I did not know Richard had a job on the hill.
    01/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
    Email: [hidden]
    This riding will go NDP. This is one of those ridings that the NDP do well in, even though they rarely win. For the NDP, finishing second is always an accomplishment! This means there is a strong NDP base in this riding, so couple this with a star candidate you have a win. And not just any star candidate by ED BROADBENT! It doesn't get much bigger than Ed. Couple this with the fact there is no incumbent, means great things for the NDP. I also drive through this riding on occaison, and I saw my first Broadbent sign months before I saw my first Mahoney sign. And so far, I've seen for Green Party signs than Tory signs! Signs dont mean much though, but I'm pretty sure Ed will win here.
    01/05/04 dean
    Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
    Dear Insider...here are some Glebe election returns for you...
    2000F 836 (14.8) 1,953 (34.5) 1,837 (32.5)A-796 (14.1)
    1997F 1,196 (19.6) 2,547 (41.8) 1,828 (30.0)R-522 (8.6)
    1993F 848 (12.9) 2,964 (45.2) 1,965 (29.9)R-539 (8.2)
    But as you say, the NDP may regard it as their stronghold...though it is harder for me to catalogue subjective impressions over objective returns!
    However, I had two other observations to make. First, your line-up of Tories (I assume voting or working for the Ottawa Centre Liberals) was indeed impressive and, for this post, earned your nickname...
    My second was to express my personal dismay over David Small's decision to work for the Federal Liberals this time...I was indeed saddened to hear of this, having known David for many...many years. You must be permitted your moment of exhultation and mine a longer interlude of saddness, because I think David will not be happy in Liberal ranks...though, as some Greeks decided in 1453 to prefer living under the Turban than the Mitre...all eventually recanted.
    I know quite a few civil servants who will, in numbers, outweigh any Ottawa Centre Conservative defections to the Liberals, by themselves opting for Broadbent over Mahoney...Perhaps after voting for Harb all these years, they need a break...

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