Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:42 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:01 PM 6/27/2004

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Colin Carrie
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Louise Parkes
Sid Ryan
Tim Sullivan
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Liisa Whalley

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Durham (22.9%)
Alex Shepherd
Oshawa (77.1%)
Ivan Grose

2000 Result/Résultats:
16,428 43.42%
10,898 28.81%
5,849 15.46%
3,979 10.52%
678 1.79%

(42/199 polls, 17754/80623 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(164/208 polls, 59636/75709 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Lineworker Bob
Email: [hidden]
A three-way split, but I think the advantage will go to Ryan, who has a strong ground organzation and momentum.
23/06/04 Oshawa Apartment Dweller
Email: [hidden]
I predict and easy win for Ryan in Oshawa. If Ottawa Centre can go NDP (Ed Brodbent) than so can Oshawa with it's similar demographics. Oshawa is not really a suburb. It's a city on to itself. The Yuppie crowd that Layton is appealing to lives here. So does the blue collar pro-union crowd. GM just got a pledge for a nice chunk of change from the feds, complained about profusely by Gilles Ducepe ever since. Conservatives (and the Green Party) would surely veto the money, especially a Bloc Québécois backed Conservative minority government . Ryan's political experience shined in the debate. Carrie's inexperience also shined. Although I am happy the chiropractor can read. It was fun watching the moderator trying to figure out if he should call him a doctor. Aren't there laws regarding the use of the term doctor? A kinesiology bachelor degree and a chiropractor course does not make one a doctor in my book. He leaves the impression he is a MD and that is misleading. However, that might actually work for him. Watching the debates when he talked about methadone, I actually assumed he new what he was talking about. I only realised he was a chiropractor after reading this web site. (Disclaimer, my sister is a Physiotherapist who has negatively influenced my opinion of chiropractors, or crackers as she calls them). Liberal's haven't been popular here, although I'm not sure why. Getting out the vote is always a challenge in Oshawa, the well organised NDP will win hands down on that front, even if they are using hired help (who doesn't). I wouldn't bet the farm, but I call this one NDP.
21/06/04 ian
Email: [hidden]
Having seen the recent Rogers Debate I can conclude that if one was to hold a search for the best reader amongst the candidates Mr Carrie would win hands down! Was Mr Carrie forced to be the Conservative Candidate for Oshawa? He looked like one of those hostages that is taken then forced to read some statement against their will. What a sad and sorry display. Did the Oshawa conservatives have no one else from which to choose? Next debate I hear that Mr Carrie is going to bring a boom box and a CD with pat answers on Tory policy, while he responds 'thank you for your question' he will que up the most suitable recorded response and hit PLAY, sit back and smile.
20/06/04 M.P.
Email: [hidden]
I work in this riding and therefore drive through it every day. I am definitely not a NDP supporter, but I see Ryan's chances as being very good this time. He does not have to fight an incumbantas he did provincially in Ouellete, even though Jerry was hardly formidable. He does have a much stronger Liberal opponent this time, but a relatively unknown and considerably weaker Tory. I see a two way battle between Parks and Ryan, and the NDP narrowly pulling this one out.
17/06/04 DonTravers
Email: [hidden]
Well, seems that everyone's parotting over the debates. Obviously these are NDP and Liberal androids who can't think for themselves.
To be fair, Carrie had a tough time at the Civic but handily won the CHEX debate and the chamber of commerce debate yesterday. It's good to see him pummelling Sid and Louise on the debates again. Then again, the rookie Tory, who's clearly the frontrunner, has had to endure the wrath of Ryan and the chirping of that nuisance Parkes. All in all, he's done well to get through it all unscathed.
Big trouble for Ryan...word is out that the bulk of his canvassers are all hired students from Toronto -- these kids are even telling residents this at the door. This really doesn't bode well for someone who's doing his damndest to look and appear like he knows Oshawa. Let's face it: Sid's not from Oshawa, his campaign manager is from one of the York ridings, his key folks, Jim Morrison and Colin Argyle are also has-been NDP candidates from the Clarington area...just where is all that Oshawa support???. Even Ed's been flown in to help out. Again, where are the locals Sid?? Not good! If you don't know Oshawa or its people, good luck getting elected there.
Sid's still got a chance but all of the crap above isn't going over well with voters. Ryan's henchmen are now threatening homeowners to take the signs -- for fear they won't get off the doorstep. Don't let the signs fool you either...he's got the CUPE membership list -- that's where most of his signs come from, after all. That's what my good friend on the inside of his campaign is telling me. His campaign staff are like a leaky sieve.
Ryan's beating Carrie about 10-8 on the signs but his support clearly isn't as deep. Signs don't win campaigns -- only a personal meeting at the door with the candidate does that, especially in a race that's going to be a squeaker. Parkes is now completely out of this race. She's done little canvassing, the signs are a disaster, and her debate performance was weak. She's a victim of her own brazeness having fired 2 campaign managers, peeved off half her party...should I go on?
It'll be Carrie and Ryan down to the wire. But Sid's insistence that auto jobs will disappear with a Conservative government is akin to hate propaganda (big lie concept) and is being scoffed at by GM workers across Oshawa. As we all know these people vote Conservative in droves these days.
Sid's scared and he should be. Louise is toast. Carrie is holding his own, slow and steady, just like Harper. He'll carry the day on June 28.
13/06/04 SC
Email: [hidden]
After the debates last week and the awesome write up in the Oshawa This Week, it's clear that Liberal Candidate Louise Parkes will take this riding. Last week, it became painfully clear that Colin Carrie had no clue of what was going on. I actually felt bad watching his painful performance - he looked like a sacrificial lamb in the debates. And Sid Ryan was so angry and hostile, he managed to turn off voters. His sourly behavious is probably due to his anxiety about this not being the cake walk he had imagined this would be. Parkes was the only one who not only knew the issues inside out, she was polished, professional, and positive. Oshawa voters aren't naive - she'll be elected easily because she's clearly the only one who really knows what's going on.
13/06/04 bb
Email: [hidden]
Im afraid RR was watching a different debate then the rest of us..Parkes was sidelined in the debate because she had nothing but her Municipal Councillor experience to draw upon..her handlers should remind her she is running to become a federal MP not local Councillor. her campaign is in disarray..just drive around..take a look at the signs...the vast majority of her signs are on public property or boulevards. Rumour has it Ryan and Carrie were invited to Ivan Grose's bar b que on the weekend.... this spells big trouble in the Liberal camp..hence the disarray on the campaign and lack of signage.
If anyone needs convincing that Parkes is a distant 3rd in this race go up to her wards(5 and 6) they are plastered in Orange NDP signs.
As for Ryan being a parachute candidate...he lived Taunton/Simcoe in early 80's..has lived in this area for 24 years..his daughters were born in Oshawa General Hospital...he represented Oshawa all over Ontario when he played soccer for Oshawa Kicks in the 80s..and he played for Oshawa United in Motor City Soccer league..plus he still has the same family doctor on King St that he had in 1980 he currently represents literally thousands of workers who work for the City, Region hospital, nursing homes, social services and schoolboards employees in Oshawa ..some parachute candidate.
Louise Parkes nor Colin Carrie live in the Oshawa Riding...they both live in the neighbouring Riding.In fact..Louise Parkes lives in ward 3 but represents wards 5 and 6 as a councillor...go figure.
12/06/04 bb
Email: [hidden]
What on earth tv debate was RR watching on Thurs night..?..Louise Parkes was creamed by Sid Ryan and poor Dr Carrie was clearly out of his league. Parkes sat by primarily because she was unable to contribute anything worthwhile except rely upon her municipal role as a Councillor..one big problem for her..she is running for Federal MP not local Councillor. As for the campaigns..Parkes will finish a distant third. Just look at her sign locations..all on boulevards hardly any of her signs on private property. Ryan has her turf(wards 5 and 6) plastered in orange NDP signs.Ryan is running away with this campaign..word has it he was invited to a bar b que at Ivan Gorse's home last week (sounds like trouble in the Liberal camp) Carrie has few signs beyond the main streets...demonstrtating he has few campaign workers. The NDP will be back in Oshawa.
05/06/04 RR
Email: [hidden]
Based on what I saw on the TV Friday night Ryan is out of touch as a parachute candidate. He had no idea that the liberals had given the go ahead for the cancer centre. He also is still running his provincial campaign...not sure who funds hospitals.
Dr. Carrie is obviously not a PHD . He doesn't know the difference between private and public health care. He is confused about his leader's intentions to cut business grants.
Parkes sat back and watched the dog fight. She could barely get a word in edgewise. She appeared amused to watch the pitbull devour a poodle.
My guess is Parkes is in the lead. She is the only one to knock on my door and phone me . I did Receive info from her and Ryan. Nothing from the others.
03/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
The comments made below by BB seem to make some assumptions that don't really follow from reality. You can't assume that Ryan is the defacto encumbant of a riding that he has never held before let alone resided in. Neither can you infur that his showing in the provincial election is a reflection on how he will perform federally. Truth is, most people vote not on the basis of the local candidate but on the basis of perceptions of the national party and its leadership. I will give BB one thing - yes I do believe that Ryan is the Mr. Carrie's chief rival in Oshawa. Regional polling for Ontario currently sees 40-45 seats being gained by the Tories in this province.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
A great threeway race! Liberals to lose, NDP to steal, Conservative to be the spoiler. Sid Ryan was something in the Ontario election and if he can muster the same support, would probably take the riding. The liberal candidate is no slouch either. We feel the Conservatives are going to come third, but that's by no means certain. They are doing relativly well in the polls and they might storm through the 905 (we're not betting on that though). Keep an eye on this one folks!
02/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
As Sid Ryan discussed in the newspapers recently, he is expecting that former NDP leader Ed Broadbent will be spending a little bit of time in Oshawa helping him campaign in Ed's former riding which Ed held from 1968-1989. With Liberal support down and NDP support up in Ontario and with Ed Broadbent being back in this election, the NDP could take this seat.
02/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I don't think Sid Ryan is heading to a coronation...Note that both the NDP and Conservatives are polling higher than they did in the 2003 provincial election...Also, the mix of issues getting traction in Ontario are ones that should feed into a Conservative win...tax increases, integrity, "time for a change"...In Ontario the Conservatives seem to have more momentum going than the NDP and appear poised to move strongly into 905. I don't doubt that Ryan will significantly increase the NDP vote from 2000, but I don't think it will be enough...my prediction? Conservatives 40%, NDP 32%, Liberals 24% and Greens 3%.
01/06/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
With no official encumbant Ryan with his high profile defacto becomes the "encumbant" and will sweep up the majority of the "undecideds".The collaspe of the Liberal vote plus the new riding boundaries favours Ryan. The commentaries below about the NDP vote in previous federal elections has no meaning following Ryan's super showing in the provincial election. With the NDP provincially showing at 11% Ryan almost beat Quellette and in the process garnered 35% of the vote. Now that the NDP are at 22% in Ontario(most recent Ipso Reid poll June 1 2004) Ryan will certainly be the candidate to beat.
01/06/04 David C
Email: [hidden]
Sid and the NDP. If they get South Oshawa out to vote that is.
In the provincial election Sid and NDP were beaten purely on voter turnout. The wealthy got out to support the Tories. But the Conservatives don't have the advantage of incumbency as they did last fall. Sid, again, brings the right kind of credentials to the riding.
The way the NDP concentrates its vote, with an expected 3-way split, at 22 per cent (latest) in Ontario, you should bet on this one!
27/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Oshawa's constituents should have asked that "what has Sid Ryan done" question in last year's provincial election; then rather than just under 35%, he would have gotten something closer to his just-under-20% in Scarborough Centre in 1999. (In fact, in the aftermath of that election, I can imagine a lot of Oshawa voters *wishing* they had voted for Ryan instead.) Like it or not, he *did* succeed in mobilizing something--however, I agree that the Broadbentian autoworker mythos has artificially spiked Oshawa's stature as an NDP target. Even when Broadbent stood here, the ghost of Michael Starr was never far from the surface--in fact, Ed B. was nearly swept away by the 1984's Mulroney landslide, and had barely more than a 10-point advantage in 1988. As it stands, it's a challenge to repatriate a lot of the last decade plus of blue-collar ReformaTories and, of course, not a few Liberal voters. Face it; this is an old school union town, with barely a yuppie scrap! of "Jack" to it. Under the present climate, it's possible for the Federal NDP to gather more Ontario seats than ever--and *still* lose hallowed Oshawa. But Sid Ryan's return makes such an outcome a little less likely; maybe this time's the charm. Yet don't *over*-bet on him, especially in light of strong opponents and/or opposition machines. (And ah, if Ivan Grose had run again, I can see him winding up with a Chris Topple-style poor-third Liberal result...)
26/05/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
AB - you gotta be kidding. The addition of Sid Ryan hardly helps the Liberals at all. Given his success in the last provincial election I would think he stands a good chance of doing well in Oshawa. Recent polling in Ontario has the Conservatives and Liberals within close range of one another and with a disproportionate number of labour friendly voters in Oshawa I hardly see how this favours the Liberals. Conventional wisdom suggests that a strong NDP candidate will undermine Liberal fortunes and compliment the Tories. It might be a tight race - but it's between the Tories and the NDP. The Liberals will fold like a deck of cards.
26/05/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
The real questions are: "Can Sid Ryan behave like the cold war is over for the entire writ period?" "What colour is his parachute?" He'd be a good candidate for the politburo. However he will inject some interest in a dull race and if he improves on the NDP's truly dismal record here since Broadbent left, he will help the Tories. Lets remember that they've finished forth in two the past three elections and even a high-quality candidate like Mike Breaugh got thumped. The combined Alliance-PC vote would have won the past couple of lizard races.
24/05/04 AB
Email: [hidden]
This is going to be an interesting race, but the Liberals will take it easily. The only real competition is the NDP who are so disorganized, they were chosing their candidate on the day of the writ. Not to mention, the Provincial elections are in no way a predictor of things to come. Those elections were quite different - the Liberals had a weak candidate to begin with. The choices are quite clear this time around. Liberal candidate Louise Parkes is no Chris Topple - she is a seasoned Oshawa politician, who won big time during the municipal elections because people know her to actually get work done. What has Colin Carrie or Sid Ryan done for this community? Sid Ryan doesn't even live here - he's from Whitby! And if he thinks he can mobolize the union members from GM, there's something else he doesn't get - times have changed: most people who work for GM aren't even from Oshawa. And Colin Carrie has no political record in Oshawa whatsoever. Being born and raised in this city, a lot of people generally don't understand this one fact: People in Oshawa are quick to rally around those they know, who have a true record of doing good for the city. They don't support people who are new or those who have no political history.
24/05/04 Just get it right
Email: [hidden]
The hissing sound you are hearing is the air being let out of the conservative campaign. Yesterday, Sid Ryan was nominated as the NDP candidate in Oshawa. IF he just receives the same vote that he got in the provincial election last November, he will win this seat. The real battle is between the Liberals who are fighting to hold this seat and the NDP who are fighting to take it. Don't be surprised that progessive conservatives jump on the Parkes bandwagon in order to stop Ryan. Still the Liberals to lose but now it is definitely too close to call.
24/05/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
Here we go again ... Dippers for Ryan spamming the Oshawa thread, just like during the provincial election.
And just like the provincial election, they're WRONG about the makeup of this riding. It's NOT a Dipper riding, folks. These are the people that the Common Sense Revolution was written for -- angry "disenfranchised" white guys. The people who used to vote "union" but who are now deeply suspicious of labour. People who hate high taxes. You want Dippers? Go to the Beaches or some other tony urban riding. The only socialists these days are the latter and Volvo set ... and there's few of them here in the Schwa. The NDP knows isn't going to win here running a failed provincial candidate -- and it's telling that Broadbent (who carried this riding for so many years) chose not to run here.
23/05/04 Observer
Email: [hidden]
Folks. Sid's nomination as the NDP candidate is a gift to the Tories. While the Liberal candidate and Ryan scrap it out on the centre-left for basically the same base of support, watch the Conservatives come right up the middle and edge them out. I'm betting the Libs will come third -- Ryan has really rattled the candidate from what I've been hearing. Had Ryan stayed out, I would have expected tighter race with the Tory candidate. As it stands now, the odds are in his favour: Sid Ryan + Ontario Liberal budget + Parkes' personal profile = a win for the Tories.
23/05/04 ian
Email: ilsmyth@yahoo.com
With Sid onboard for the NDP the Liberals can kiss this riding goodbye! This is a swing riding and with Ontario now in play for the first time since 1988 watch the upsets. Oshawa voted Tory in the '03 provincial election and this time they are going to vote Tory again. Ridings like Oshawa will be the breaking point for Liberals as the campaign falters and voter anger at the Federal Liberals as well as the provinvial spills over. The table has been set, watch the voters dine out on RED meat!
19/05/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
It's official..Sid Ryan is running to capture the NDP nomination in Oshawa..The Libs and Alliance/Tories chances just disappeared off the radar screen. Ryan will electrify the NDP base and expand it to include disaffected and disilusioned Libs and disgruntled Conservatives. Ryan will have the support of Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton..watch how the leader visits Oshawa to assist Ryan ..it will be noticeable when Martin and Harper fail to show to support their candidates. In addition Ryan has thousnads of check marks and sign locations from his bid to win provincial seat..which he narrowly lost. Ryan garnered more votes in his campaign then Ivan Grose did in the last Federal Election. Oshawa looks like its heading back to the NDP.
19/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
Hate to blow previous posters bubbles, but it looks like Sid Ryan is in after all - and if he gets the nomination (there's no reason to think he won't - though Larry O'Connor is in fact a lot better as a candidate than you might think - he _is_ lowkey, but he was an effective, hardworking MPP during the Rae years and has served on Durham Regional for 7 plus years), there is no reason not consider the NDP the party to beat in Oshawa. Ryan pull over 35% of the vote in the teeth of a liberal landslide and in an election that is probably going to be anything but a Liberal cakewalk, I think his chances are looking very good. It will be a three-way race, but let's say Ryan by about 5-7%.
19/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
It now seems that Sid Ryan is going to run for the NDP in Oshawa. He came extremely close to winnning this seat in the provincial election and the federal NDP is looking to get a higher overall vote than the provincial NDP had in Ontario. Chalk this one up for the NDP!
19/05/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Attention BMS! Do the math.
Liberal vote: 16,428 43.42%
Alliance + PC: 16,747 44.27%
Anywhere the Liberals polled under 45% and less than the combined Alliance and PC vote is a riding on the bubble ... one misstep (or provincial Liberal budget) away from a turnover.
18/05/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
Actually contrary to what has been posted below, I have heard from a very credible Oshawa source that the provincial NDP candidate in Oshawa who came with 3% of winning, Sid Ryan, is indeed seeking the nomination. Ryan is an excellent candidate, and him running for the NDP turns Oshawa into a tight three-way race. At the moment it's to close to call, but I believe we may see Sid Ryan emerge as the eventual victor in a very close race.
18/05/04 RD
Email: [hidden]
Funny, I heard from a member of the NDP riding association just today that Sid Ryan was planning to contest the NDP nomination here. If Sid's the candidate, I think a rising federal NDP and weak liberal party will give him the necessary boost to take this riding federally where he was unable to provincially. As I understand it, O'Connor is no lightweight either, though. He may live in Brock, now, but he was born in Oshawa, represented Durham North as an NDP MPP during the Rae government and has a strong base of support in the autoworkers union, of which he himself was once a member at GM. I think that in any case Oshawa will be a tight three-way race.
17/05/04 Bob Smyth
Email: [hidden]
Not sure what BMS is talking about -- maybe you've got the wrong riding.
In each of the 93, 97 and 2000 campaigns, the absolute combined PC/CA/Reform results indicate a Conservative plurality over the Liberals in each case (3300, 3021, and 359 vote margins of victory respectively, prior to redistribution). Of course, it's always a mug's game trying to 'combine' these votes post-PC/CA merger in some ridings. But in Oshawa, it pretty much works given the Conservative tradition here in the past decade or so.
And I don't think the new redistribution hurts the Tories.
They've lost some of their voters to Whitby but pick up a significant Conservative demographic in East/Northeast Oshawa where the young doctor appears to be a hit among many new residents and their families -- especially on the health care issue.
From what I'm hearing he's got a lock on the whole east side of the city from the lake northward following weeks of canvassing. Should be hot one to watch! If I was Parkes, I'd be worried at this late date.
17/05/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
Well this race just got really interesting. With a weak NDP candidate nominated this may shore up support for Parks. I am still am leaning Conservative here based on my previous comments however. Had Sid Ryan tossed his hat in I would have said that Oshawa was a sure thing for the Tories. Now it's a horse race.
17/05/04 905er
Quick correction - Sid Ryan may still be the candidate; Larry O'Conner is running against him in the nomination. With only 125 people eligible to vote and no nomination date set you have to wonder what the heck the NDP is doing here. Ryan could still be a factor if nominated - either as a spoiler or in a bizzare circumstance winning. That said, the fact they have to fight a nomination battle on the eve of a election call (perhaps even during the writ) doesn't bode well for their chances here.
/05/04 Yukon Pundit
Email: [hidden]
Having worked in Oshawa briefly I've seen that this a town with a proud, socialist tradition that also has a very strong, tight conservative tradition living in the same area. As times have changed, the left-wing edge has faded (or gotten old) while the conservative side seems stronger. If you look at the numbers from 2000 there is definitely a right-wing base and with the absence of the bank robber (Grose) and the adscam, the reasons for voting Liberal dwindle. This will probably go Tory, especially if the New Democrat, O'Connor, is as weak as the previous writer said.
NDP will run Brock Regional Councillor Larry O'Connor here which means they couldn't get Sid Ryan. Big blow to the NDP chances - it effectively writes them out of the race. O'Connor lives light years away in Brock and is a quiet, low key Councillor at the best of times.
Race now between the Libs and CP. O'Connor's entry helps Parkes and tilts things in favour of her. Still an interesting race - now between two candidates.
02/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Turning to the riding basics, the Liberals have thrived in Oshawa as a result of vote-spliting and a collapse of the NDP...provincially the area became part of a solid Durham blue contingent in the legislature and now the Conservatives have an excellent opportunity to break through, backed by a successful, accomplished Conservative candidate...The stronger the NDP candidate when nominated, the more Parke's chances dwindle...
01/05/04 Thomas Cramner
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
The Conservative Party in Oshawa has just release polling information, that if authentic, would see the folks of Oshawa easily elect a Conservative candidate for the first time in decades. The poll, conducted the week of April 12-16, 2004, reveals: 33% for the Tories, 21% for the Grits and 13% for the NDP. Oshawa did have a strong result provincially so I see this poll as having merit. National polling tends to be just that and while they oversample for smaller provinces they generally don't reflect local or regional idiosincracies. My money is on the Tories to prevail in Oshawa.
29/04/04 Just get it right
Email: [hidden]
I can't believe the comments made at this site. First you have conservatives crowing about their candidate, an unknown who has never ran for political office before and is unrecognized outside of his own family, friends and a few political operatives. Then we have some pontificating about the NDP regaining this seat. No one seems to mention that they don't have a candidate or that they received less than 10% in the last federal election. Lastly, everyone slags the Liberal candidate, who was just re-elected in November 2000 with the largest popular vote of any member of City Council(70%) and that her ward is included in the new riding boundaries.
Any impartial view would see this as a Liberal seat with only an outside chance for either of the two other parties. With both thinking they can win, the anti-Liberal vote will split and leave this in the Liberal column.
Just like 1993, 1997 and 2000. Just get it right folks.
19/04/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
I see MD is engaging in some wishful thinking when he suggests Oshawa does not want to see the NDP back as the areas representative. Perhaps he has a very short memory. In the recent provincial election the Liberal candidate finished a poor 3rd. In fact, he received the lowest vote of any Liberal candidate in Ontario. This riding with it's new boundaries favour the NDP. The Tory/Alliance Party just lost a huge chunk of their conservative vote in North West Oshawa. The Liberals will be plagued by the Fiberals in Ontario who have broken most of their election promises and by the sponsorship Adscam scandal. This is the best opportunity for the NDP in the past 12 years. Parkes should not give up her councillors job..nor should the Tory give up his chiropractor business.
19/04/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
No offense to MD and Tom, but your "Alliance-Conservatives" references are nothing more than empty Liberal pre-election fear mongering rhetoric...and polls show that Ontario isn't buying it (32% for the Tories...5% less than last election versus 41% for the Liberals...10% less than the last election). Actually, having a star candidate for the Liberals will help the Conservatives. This is normally a toss up between the NDP and Conservatives. The vote-split factor would have made a Tory win in Oshawa in '93, '97, and 2000. However, with a rising NDP and falling Lib party, the race gets more interesting. You may expect the NDP to win here but if the Liberal candidate can prevent votes from going over there, the Tories may creep up the middle. If this scenario happens, the Liberals may even come in 3rd place. I would still lean Tory first, NDP close second and Liberals third, but it is a close call.
19/04/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
I have been reviewing the comments posted here for some time and been tempted to reply sooner but the most recent few have finally got my attention. I think we have to be careful of making outrageous claims for any one party, things like: The Tory/Alliance will be lucky to get their deposit back in Oshawa; Harper an his rigid right agenda; the Liberals aren't even in the running here; Parkes has got this one wrapped up. Let the facts speak for themselves:
- the Tories hold this riding provincially and held tough against the Liberal tide in the last provincial election
- Demographically Oshawa has changed, while it has a history of supporting the NDP because its strong labour ties, in the past decade it has shown signs of leaning more conservative perhaps because the rank and file membership is defined as upper middle class in terms of income and becuase of the influx of a commuter class that works in Toronto
- the the last provincial election, Oshawa was the only riding in Ontario where the Liberals placed third
- the level of religiousity, comparatively speaking, is quite high in Oshawa in relation to the rest of the province. Conservative Christians and social conservatives tend to vote for the conservative party although many will vote Liberal.
- the NDP alligns itself with causes such as gay rights, feminism, religous rights bashing, environmentalism, high taxation, big government, preferential hiring policies. These are wedge issues that tend to be anathema to those who are economically conservative or of a religious persuasion.
Those who have conservative leanings resent it when the "left" refers to them as having a "rigid right" agenda. What does this mean? Are family values, honesty, hard-work, electoral reform and fair taxation synonymous with fear-mongering. Why are people of the left so certain that their position is a valid one and that all others are worthy of scapegoating?
Before we get carried away with rabid claims that the right has no chance of claiming Oshawa, we might first want to take a closer look at the facts instead of resorting to hearsay or fear-mongering. We might also want to clarify the policies of each party and give the electorate the opportunity to make decisions based on reality as opposed to perception.
17/04/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
Oshawa does not want to see a return of the NDP. The Alliance-Conservatives have an unknown and untested candidate . The liberal candidate is the most popular councillor in the city that will draw support from the Conservatives and NDP. Parkes defeated a sitting member and has saved the seat for the Liberals.
14/04/04 Tom Sch
Email: [hidden]
Who is Joseph Burns trying to kid...The Tory/Alliance candidate has zero profile in Oshawa. Todays Ipso Reid poll has the NDP at 19% in Ontario..thats corresponds to at least 40% for the NDP in Oshawa considering Sid Ryan got 35.6% of the vote provincially when the Ont NDP were at 11% provincially. There is no amount of so called whiz kids going to overtake NDP in Oshawa. As for the Tory/Alliance candidate being all over the media...what a joke...besides his Immediate friends in Alliance Party ..nobody has ever heard of him. from what I am hearing as a local bus driver..the old Conservatives will not vote for a hard right party that "seized control" of the Conservatives in Oshawa...The Tory/ Alliance Party will be lucky to get their deposit back in Oshawa.Watch for Sid Ryan to make a dramatic entrance to this race for the NDP...then you will truly see a media blitz.
18/04/04 Doctor
Email: [hidden]
Parkes has got this one wrapped up. The chiropractor is unknown and untested. She is a high profile, long term community activist who understands the city. She has appeal across party lines and will easily capture Progressive Conservative voters uneasy with Harper and his rigid right agenda.
Parkes is a sophisticated campaigner with a strong following. This popular lady will be a future cabinet minister which Oshawa has needed since Michael Starr. Those who remember Starr will understand. Their parties are different but their love for the city and its people are the same. Then again, Starr's Conservatives are not who they claim to be today.
13/04/04 Nick
Email: doodle@cogeco.ca
Oshawa is a very unique riding where there is strong NDP and Tory support, with the Liberals squeeking around somewhere in the middle or trailing the two. This was a big upset for the NDP in the 2003 provincial election, though it's not to be unexpected. Oshawa is becoming the Oakville of the east side of the GTA and one wouldn't expect to see the NDP get elected there. Were it not for the chunk of Durham included in the new Oshawa riding, I would have predicted this as a Liberal win. As it stands now, I'd give the Tory's the edge, but we'll have to wait and see what kind of campaign the Liberals put on.
12/04/04 Mike D
From what I hear, the Liberals aren't even in the running here and may be in 3rd place. The Liberals have lost ground in Ontario, some places more than others, and this one of those "more than others." Yes, the re-emergence of Ed Broadbent will effect things, primarily swinging left-liberal votes from the Liberals to the NDP. But the NDP won't gain enough to take it this time. I see a scenario like this: 40% Conservative, 30% NDP, 25% Liberal, 5% Others. This is one of those rare Ontario ridings where the Conservatives and NDP will be directly competing for the seat.
08/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
In 1968, the results in this riding went like this:
Ed Broadbent - 15,225
PC Candidate - 15,209
Lib Candidate - 14,899
so you can see how close this riding can be. I am not going to make a call, but will back up the fact that recently, right-wing candidates (CA, PC, ontPC) have been doing well here.
08/04/04 Joseph C. Burns
Email: [hidden]
It looks like the reunited Tories have beat their opponents to the punch in terms of organization over the past couple months. All the indicators are there: the united right vote is Oshawa really is just that -- Oshawa is one of 20 ridings in Ontario the party has deemed 'winnable'. They've polled the heck out of Durham in the past year and every result points to a Conservative win with the united party.
The local Conservatives got their act together in December. Since then, they've stitched together a formidable election machine made with former PC and CA people. From what I've heard and seen it's about the best organization Oshawa's seen since the Mike Starr era.
She's got more problems since the big Tory guns have come back to town. These guys are young, sharp, and they don't take any prisoners. The guy in the driver's seat is Andrew Morin. He's a veteran and he's orchestrated the media onslaught for the Conservatives in Oshawa since December. Their candidate has dominated the local press so much so that they caught Parkes off guard immediately following her nomination. They were all over the TV, radio and paper calling for her resignation. These guys just don't quit! They've got a great website, they've done all kinds of new and sophisticated stuff like distributing digital media kits and taking donations online -- a first in any riding I've seen. Their candidate is clean, he knows the issues and with this sort of organization, it looks like they’ll steal Oshawa from the Liberals. My money's on the young Doctor. With this level of organization, he should steal this one from the Liberals.
27/03/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
As of late at least, Oshawa has absolutely been a Conservative constituency. Despite a weak campaign by the provincial Tories last October, Durham and Oshawa (the two ridings that have been partially amalgamated in order to form this new riding) both elected P.C. candidates. However, Oshawa has traditionally been a strong area for the New Democrats, and with Ed Broadbent back on the scene, although not in this riding, voters may be inspired to vote NDP again. The lack of a Liberal incumbent will hamper the likeliness of a Liberal being elected, but Louise Parkes will be a tough candidate. Due to the strong conservative showing in the 2000 election and the election of Jerry Ouellette and John O’Toole to the Ontario Legislative Assembly last fall, my gut feeling suggests a Conservative victory, but it is going to be VERY close.
27/03/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals have just come through a messy nomination meeting where the incumbant Ivan Grose was defeated by Louise Parkes. Oshawa is just another riding on a long list where Chretien supporters have been targetted and defeated by Martin clones. This will leave behind a divided Liberal riding association where Ivan Grose supporters will be as mad as hell at Parkes for taking out an incumbant. With the NDP at 17% (canada wide) this means Oshawa is in high 30's..and if Sid Ryan decides to run...he will surely add to his provincial vote . With no incumbant in the seat Oshawa will go back to the NDP. Watch for Ed broadbent to campaign with Ryan.
25/03/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
Another riding where a big shift happened recently at the Municipal level, the people want change. The incumbent MP Ivan Grose has been defeated in his Nomination by popular local councillor Louise Parkes who will be the Liberal candidate. Ms. Parkes has a very strong and proactive team around her already and I predict a narrow victory for the Liberals. If a high profile NDP candidate like Sid Ryan jumps in to this race it will certainly be an interesting race but otherwise, look for Oshawa to stay Liberal. Is a new liberal MP the change the people are looking for?
20/03/04 BB
Email: [hidden]
Here we go again..another cliff hanger in the making in Oshawa. I think if the NDP can convince Sid Ryan to run this is his election to lose. He ran a brilliant provincial campaign which shocked all the naysayers in Oshawa. He energised the moribound Oshawa NDP and came within a whisker of defeating a Tory cabinet minister. He has the election machinery , recent sign locations and is the electorate in Oshawa now believes he is a winner. Add to that the Liberals are having their own internal blood bath with the invisible MP Ivan grose being challenged for the nomination. The Tories have nominated a no name candidate. Jack laytons NDP will take Oshawa sending Ryan to Ottawa if he runs.
19/03/04 MP
Email: [hidden]
This could go either way. Depends on how NDPer Sid Ryan's close provincial loss affected his image. The fact that he almost defeated Ouellette could bolster his support this time, which would send him to parliament. Or it could make him an unwitting loser, sending a Liberal or Conservative. Either, way this will be close race between all three parties. A true contest in all senses of the word.
19/03/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Ah. Oshawa...
In the 2003 Ontario Provincial Elections I had thought that Oshawa would be a close Tory v Liberal fight with the NDP (which I thought was dead in Oshawa) coming a poor third... luckily for me I caught the prediction bug late and never got round to submitting that particular prediction...
As a result of the provincial election in Oshawa, I flat out refuse to call this riding either way.
The Liberals have a sitting MP, the Tories an MPP and the NDP have the history (the removal of some of those Reformatory suburban polls helps them as well).
Oshawa is too close to call
17/03/04 RWA
This is the Tories' best shot at an urban Ontario riding, especially if a high profile NDP candidate can bleed support away from the Liberals.
17/03/04 The Masked Tory
No incumbant, Libs falling in the polls, and a super candidate in Dr. Colin Corrie should translate into a seat for the Conservatives.
17/03/04 Craig
I think this will be a virtual carbon copy of the 2003 Ontario election results here, although the Liberals should do somewhat better and the Conservatives lose some of the suburban sections in redistribution. With Sid Ryan, this becomes a 3-way race. It won't be decided for a while! Predicted results: Liberal 34%, Conservative 32%, NDP 31%, others 3%.
16/03/04 905er
Very interesting race shaping up here. The NDP are likely to run Sid Ryan who will boost their numbers, the Liberals are likely to nominate Louise Parks - a local Councillor and the conservatives have a lot of room to go right up the middle. Hard to say what will happen here but a conservative win is not at all out of the question.

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