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Oak Ridges-Markham
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 8:39 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 8:39 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Bob Callow | ||||||
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PC Party/Parti PC: Jim Conrad | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Pamela Courtot | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Bernadette Manning | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Lui Temelkovski | ||||||
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Christian Héritage Chrétien: Maurice Whittle | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Markham (30.0%) Hon. John McCallum | ||||||
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Oak Ridges (52.5%) Bryon Wilfert | ||||||
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Vaughan-King-Aurora (13.0%) Hon. Maurizio Bevilacqua | ||||||
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York North (4.5%) Karen Kraft Sloan | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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21,231 | 53.07% |
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10,280 | 25.69% |
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6,770 | 16.92% |
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1,137 | 2.84% |
| 591 | 1.48% | |
Markham (52/184 polls, 20408/85105 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 6850 | |
| 3038 | |
| 378 | |
| 1990 | |
| 243 | ||
Oak Ridges (74/208 polls, 35764/99039 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 10844 | |
| 5426 | |
| 476 | |
| 3310 | |
| 288 | ||
Vaughan-King-Aurora (25/215 polls, 8836/98722 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 2669 | |
| 1295 | |
| 211 | |
| 992 | |
| 38 | ||
York North (10/220 polls, 3096/85188 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 868 | |
| 521 | |
| 72 | |
| 478 | |
| 22 | ||
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20/06/04 | JT Email: [hidden] | |
| Without a doubt this riding will go Conservative. Bob Callow has been campaigning hard here. Lui Temelkovsi has been rather invisible and this is not the Chertien era where Liberals could just showed up in this province and win. | |||
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12/06/04 | David Gates Email: [hidden] | |
| Unfortunately for Stephen Harper and the residents of Oak Ridges-Markham, Bob Callow will likely ride Mr. Harper's coattails to Ottwaw. Mr. Callow, an amiable dolt given to speaking about himself in the third person like some sort of aged Bob Dale with occasional bouts of screaming, could have had this race locked up already had he begun campaigning back in February after his nomination. Instead, he sat around on his brain for the next few months waiting for the grass to turn green. Given that the newly formed Conservative EDA essentially rigged the nomination in Mr. Callow's favour, it might be better for the Conservatives in general if Callow, one of Stockwell Day's so-called star candidates in 2000 and not a Harper supporter, goes down this time so that a quality candidate can be run in the next election that will likely follow soon after this one. Lui Temelkowski would likely do little harm as an MP if he gets in and could quickly be dispatched in the next election by a quality Conservative Candidate. On one other amusing note, Sinc Stephens, ever deeper mired in bitterness and irrelevance, is running one of his so called PC (Progressive Canadian) Candidates in this new Electoral District. When Stephens showed up on Main Street Markham to heckle Stephen Harper, he could not name his candidate, Jim Conrad, after bragging that he was running a candidate in Oak RIdges-Markham. | |||
| 26/05/04 | A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com | ||
| Another in the blur of new York Region seats; provincially, it's a combination of the strongest Frank Klees country and the strongest David Tsubouchi (dec'd) country, and smells potentially bluuuuue indeed--though whether that turns out to be 2000-style "Paul Martin" blue, or whether reoffering 2000's Alliance candidate is the right strategy, is open to debate. Also, don't underestimate "green" issues in Oak Ridges Moraine country--something which may backfire either way (remember that the prototypical McGuinty flip-flop was in failing to stop moraine redevelopment). So, in a close second tier if not first tier of 905-belt CPC targets; I can even see it going Tory ahead of Belinda next door... | |||
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/05/04 | Alex Ersken Email: | |
| As a new riding in a relatively conservative riding, this makes Oak Ridges-Markham very close to call. But I have confidence we will see a Liberal victory. Temelkovski is very popular in the area, and in fact offered to send my grandfather to Normandy when my father complained that it was dispicable that he would have to pay his own way. There is no doubt in my mind that the riding will go Liberal. The other candidates are all but unknown. I'd expect this, along with much of the 905, to stay red. | |||
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29/04/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| A minor clarification, Jim Jones did not win this riding for Reform, he won it for the PC in 97 and then crossed over to the Canadian Alliance just before the 2000 election (and then lost misserably). We do feel though that this will go Conservative now. Oak Ridges did go PC in the Ontario provincial election and Old Markham being very conservative has been attatched to this riding. This point may allow John McCallum to keep his seat in neighbouring Markham-Unionville (we're still hedging our bet on a Conservative win there too). Will be a race though between the Libs and the Cons. | |||
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19/04/04 | B. Stewart Email: [hidden] | |
| Conservative win? Absolutely! Markham is very Tory (PC federally in 1997, PC provincially in the 1990 NDP sweep) and this area has now broken off from John McCallum's turf, along with the staunchiest Tory support. Oak Ridges stayed PC in the provincial election last year, which says a lot about this new riding and where it's headed. | |||
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29/03/04 | Dave Schultz Email: [hidden] | |
| Historically, 2/3 voter turnout, predominately left-minded majority. Federal member consistently Liberal; Provincial member consistently Conservative. Even when conservative vote is combined, it still is only half of the Liberal vote. Fringe parties show minimal support. Steadiness of incumbant member's familiarity key-factor in his repeated re-elect (considered for an official endorsement for Liberal Party candidacy). | |||
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20/03/04 | Rich Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding could very well go to the Tories. Oakridges went to the Tories provincially and historically Markham has been fairly conservative (Read, Jim Jones winning federally for Reform). A strong central campaign by the Conservatives will lead to a seat pick up in Oak Ridges - Markham | |||
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20/03/04 | pundit Email: [hidden] | |
| Redistribution makes this riding ripe for the taking. Riding is full of those who on paper fit the profile of a conservative voter (ie. higher income, suburban / rural makeup). Although Liberal incumbent has strength in Richmond Hill, he now has to contend with a significant pop'n base in Markham in which he has no roots. Prediction: even if Liberals turn the tide on recent slide, this will be one of the first to go Conservatives way. | |||
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