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Northumberland-Quinte West
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:43 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:03 AM 6/27/2004

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Russ Christianson
Doug Galt
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Steven Haylestrom
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paul Macklin

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Northumberland (86.1%)
Paul Harold Macklin
Prince Edward-Hastings (13.9%)
Hon. Lyle Vanclief

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,624 45.93%
13,017 26.43%
9,914 20.13%
2,336 4.74%
1,363 2.77%

(184/184 polls, 72816/72816 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Prince Edward-Hastings
(36/204 polls, 11785/70466 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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I completely disagree about Quinte West.
There are streets in Trenton that are 7-0 for Galt. Travelling on Highway Two from Brighton to Belleville there are far, far more private property Galt signs than Macklin - it's not even close. I've heard the more rural areas to the north are even more one-sided.
The Liberals should also be concered about the number of Bruce Knutson signs east of Trenton. Even Prince Edward-Hastings MPP Ernie Parsons, who now lives in this riding, has a Knutson sign!
23/06/04 A.W.
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure if D.M. lives in the riding or not, but certainly I disagree with his observation of signs. There clearly is a great deal more Conservative signs on private property here in N.Q.W. The Port Hope area is probably the only municipality where Galt signs are lacking. Nonetheless, Trent Hills and Quinte West especially are going for Galt. I've also seen alot of Galt signs on Liberal properties. If that isn't a sure sign Galt will win I don't know what is.
18/06/04 D. M.
Email: [hidden]
I think it's going to be a close race here, but the Liberals should hang on to this riding. The "sign campaign" started off slowly for the Liberals, especially in the Quinte West area, but Liberal incumbent Paul Macklin certainly has more signs out there now than the Conservative candidate. It could be that Stephen Harper visited CFB Trenton early on in the campain so the Conservatives had many signs out early. Also, I've noticed that the Liberals are winning by far in the "signs on private property" area. There are far more people now willing to proclaim their support for the Liberals in the Quinte West area via signs on their front lawns. I've only seen one such Conservative sign in my travels. It is the most interesting public mood I've ever experienced during a Federal Election. People are almost "afraid" to show support for any particular candidate but this is starting to change now with a clear (albeit tentative) bias towards the Liberals via the sign campaign. Should be a fun one to watch on the 28th!
13/06/04 K.N.
Email: [hidden]
Galt is looking good, I'm predicting a win for the Conservatives. More signs out for Galt than Macklin, except maybe Port Hope area. Conservatives have lost a lot of signs to vandalism.
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
This was the first riding I really "experienced" the first full day of the election, and already I noticed sign crews busy putting up Galt signs, as well as the surprising scatterling of NDP signs in the Port Hope-Cobourg area--and no Liberal other than a campaign office--still, that was the first day. That it's still basically the oft-reported case a third of the way through the campaign sounds *weird*. (How are signs doing in the *urban* parts of the riding--PH, Cobourg, Trenton--anyway?) Anyway, this once rock-solid Tory seat is more naturally moderate than it used to be; but Doug Galt is a moderate (at least, for a rural Tory) kind of guy. Going back to 1988, this was the tightest of Ontario's free-trade Liberal-steal shockers (in George Hees' old seat!), and if Kim Campbell's PCs were like Harper's CPCs, this ought to have been the reverse-the-recount "Leeds-Grenville" case of 1993...
01/06/04 Davis
Email: [hidden]
Right you are Chris. I haven't seen signs yet from the Macklin campaign. Even the local media in this riding is showing signs of a Galt win (i.e. Kuglin's editorial in the Trentonian).
30/05/04 Chris
Email: [hidden]
Second, Christianson is a strong candidate and a fresh new face. He'll draw some votes from the left side of the Liberal vote splitting the left-wing. Finally, where are the Liberal workers??? I think I've seen a total of 3 Macklin signs throughout. Galt signs are everywhere and I'm impressed by his "Mobile Office" that I keep running into at events around the riding. Galt has a really good chance of winning this one.
27/05/04 Eastern Ontario Values
Email: ben_sps@hotmail.com
Considering Northumberland's lack of Liberal-friendly advertising firms and Bahamian shipping magnates, it's hard to see Macklin holding on. For one, he has a lower profile in the Liberal Party than "Flat Mark". Galt will do well in Eastern Northumberland, and do better than expected in the heavily Polish areas.
26/05/04 Andrew
Email: [hidden]
Just driving around Northumberland Quinte West I've literally seen hundreds of Galt signs up on lawns and I've only seen 1 Macklin sign so far. I get the impression the Macklin Campaign is very disorganized... or perhaps Galt has more supporters.
24/05/04 A New New Democrat
Email: [hidden]
Before I begin, I don't want my prediction of a Liberal victory in NQW to confused with my desire for a successful NDP campaign. Northumberland tends to conform to the national/provincial trends. Regardless of the governing party, it is always a safe bet to go with the party expected to win. Take the recent provincial election. I don't believe that Lou Rinaldi won this riding bcause he had the strongest platform, nor any liberal with the exception of a few "old standbys". When it came to the straight goods, Howard Hampton was hands down the best choice, but like i said before, Northumberland is just another one of those "sheep ridings". We're happy to follow everyone else...anything more might require indipendent thought. We complain about the Liberal smugness and the Ad-Scam, so the automatic alternative is the party we see on tv the most. I am speaking of couse about the Conservative Party, formerly known as the Canadian Alliance, formerly known as the Reform Party, formerly under the umberella of the PC's, formerly known as the (original) Conservative Party. The party of great leaders such as Stockwell Day, Brian Mulroney, Kim Campbell, Joe Clarke and John Deifenbaker. I need not continue. Let's show some creativity this time 'round. Let's give the NDP a shot. I still think Mr. Macklin will win NQW, but please, feel free to prove me wrong.
19/05/04 William
Email: [hidden]
NQW, I realize those of us who post to this website are more alert than the average voter. However, here in Northumberland-Quinte West alot of my friends are talking about Doug Galt and his track record such as investment into the local economy (e.g. OSTAR and the Rural Ec. Develop program)and the investment in General Mills in Quinte West that created a ton of new jobs. I also recall the construction of two new hospitals and funding for the RCAF museum.
11/05/04 NQW Voter
Email: [hidden]
Andrew - are you trying to fool us here? Informed voters, those who frequent websites such as this one, know exactly who Doug Galt is. We are not the majority of the electorate however.
It is standard procedure to try to distance oneself from a loss, and with the current popularity of the Tories in Ontario, I am sure Mr. Galt is less than enthusiastic about touting his "achievements" as a member of the Harris/Eves regime.
He is banking on the age old mantra of politics - name recognition. His only hope it that on election day voters remember his name, but not his record.
Noticed your email address - to clarify for the rest of the people posting here - were you not an employee of Galt's when he was an MPP?
10/05/04 Andrew
Email: aredden3@hotmail.com
In response to WK, I don't believe that Galt is ashamed of his former position as provincial cabinet minister and whip. I assume the reason why he left this information out of his recent mail-out is because everyone knows this information already. You obviously do.
03/05/04 E. Andrew Washburn
Email: [hidden]
I can see that the PC and Alliance vote put together from the 2000 election outnumbers the Liberals, but I don't think that it will be enough to defeat the Liberals in this riding. The combined total is just a couple thousand more than the Liberals, and that's less than I think the number of votes that will travel to the Liberals. It will be a close two-way race however.
28/04/04 WK
Email: [hidden]
Will Galt's political past hurt him? In an early submission, Vlasek extolled Galt and referred to his "cabinet experience" as a positive factor, but Galt now seems to want to downplay this chapter in his life. For example, I just received Galt's new election brochure in the mail. There's no mention of his position as provincial cabinet minister and whip. Is he ashamed? He and his cronies certainly left a mess behind when they were forced out of office.
26/04/04 Andrew
Email: aredden3@hotmail.com
I think the comments from NQW Voter and Cindy is proof enough that the supporters in the riding for Macklin and the Liberal Party are split down the middle. If they don't vote for Macklin, could that mean greater support for the NDP? Russ Christensen is a super guy and knows his stuff. Remember it was always Weppler running for the NDP other years and now there's a new fresh face with new ideas.
My bet is with a stronger NDP voice and evident division among the Liberals, Galt will end up on top.
19/04/04 NQW Voter
Email: [hidden]
Cindy - some items to consider:
1 - yes doug galt and paul macklin worked together in the years that they were both representatives of the same riding - is this a bad thing - is that not what we expect our politicians to do - put aside partisan stripes to work for the betterment of our region?
2 - Bill Patchett did in fact raise money for Doug Galt, he raised money to build the hospital, to eradicate polio worldwide through Rotary and a number of other worthy causes - as a Liberal all of my life, I am glad that Macklin can look beyond an individuals past political experience. You say you are a Liberal, are we not the party of inclusion? Or is your feeling that if you have ever supported an individual of another stripe that you should not be allowed back into the party?
For the record - Bill Patchett supported Doug Galt the individual, and was not a card carrying member of the PC party of Ontario. When I look around this riding I see a lot of people who vote one way provincially and another federally - they are two seperate and distinct parties.
15/04/04 Cindy
Email: [hidden]
Well well well, I have been a liberal all of my life however, I wonder if Mr. Macklin and his support team know what a Liberal is. I understand Bill Patchett is Macklin's fundraiser. Gee if my memory serves me correctly Bill Patchett was also Doug Galt's fund raiser a few short months ago. Is he a liberal or isn't he? Also Mr. Macklin gave Mr. Galt some great press in a few of his mail outs. If memory serves me correctly during the Provincial election Macklin praised Galt for working so hard with Carolyn Campbell and the committee they jointly formed. So if Mr. Macklin gave Mr. Galt such a great few months of recommendations perhaps I need assurance from Mr. Macklin as to why I should continue to support him. things that make you go Hummmm!
02/04/04 Vlasek
Email: walaseka@hotmail.com
Interesting to see the comments about backbenchers. Doug Galt has cabinet experience, something Macklin will not attain after Martin demoted him to "committee member." Galt worked hard to ensure the construction of the West Northumberland hospital as well as to secure funding for the RCAF Museum in the east end. The expanded riding will bring in a large rural area in the east which should also help the Conservative cause.
02/04/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Response to Mike: Vote-splitting was only a factor last time if you assume that *all* of the Canadian Alliance voters and *all* of the Progressive Conservative voters would have been willing to unite behind a single opposition candidate, which is spurious logic at best. Paul Macklin finished well ahead of both candidates last time -- and I suspect that he'll take enough "red Tory" votes to reclaim the seat in '04. (Beyond which, does anyone *really* want to hear Doug Galt yammering on about how Stephen and Belinda are the greatest leaders Canada could hope for?)
31/03/04 Andrew
Email: aredden3@hotmail.com
Doug Galt did not lose the last election on his own account. It was a Liberal sweep.
Galt is a credible candidate. He's experienced, educated and a really nice guy. He did alot for the riding as MPP. He will put up a good challenge to the incumbent Macklin.
I live in the Northumberland-Quinte West riding and the momentum that I see taking place with the local Conservative riding association is quite strong and I don't think conservative voters have enjoyed that here since the Harris '95 victory. Furthermore, alot of Liberals were upset with the way Macklin partnered with Galt on the Youth Opportunities task force. As well, alot of Liberals are angry with the present funding scandel in Ottawa simply weakening their support. In light of the preceding points I mentioned, if Galt and his supporters run a clean campaign, they could win.
27/03/04 NQW Voter
Email: [hidden]
When discussing the odds of a Conservative win in the expanded riding of Northumberland Quinte-West it is important to remember a few key points:
1 - Doug Galt was firmly defeated in the last provincial election, six months ago. It was not just a "liberal sweep" that took him out, one only needs to look at previous results federally and provincially to see that although NQW is primarily rural, it is also fairly Liberal in its recent voting history.
2 - Doug Galt barely won in 1999
3 - Throughout his two terms, the one key thing that Doug Galt did locally was to ensure that the majority of the electorate were well aware of his ability to only toe the line for the Eves/Harris regime which resulted in him being generally disliked by the majority of the electorate.
4 - Doug Galt is used to simply spouting rhetoric in his campaigns, what is he going to do this time when actually faced with opponents (both Liberal and NDP) who understand the issues and can debate him on facts not partisan rhetoric?
5 - It is ridiculous to state that the results of the last federal election translate into a direct correlation to this campaign. Those of us on the ground in this riding realize that key voters who would have supporteds the PC's previously will not be supporting the new Conservative/Alliance party, especially one lead locally by Doug Galt who came swooping in at the last moment to take the candidacy, just as party workers were happy to see the end of him six months ago!
24/03/04 Mike Chesher
Email: wluchesh@hotmail.com
With all due respect Christopher, if you check the results in 2000 vote splitting WAS a factor as the combined conservative voted would have defeated Mr. Macklin. Also I think that the resentment of the federal liberals in the wake of the sponsorship scandal continues to be underrated and this will come to nest in rural riding such as Northumberland Quinte-West. This combined with an ineffective backbencher in Paul Macklin should translate into a win for Dr. Galt.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

I'm really not certain that Doug Galt's candidacy will help the Tories here. He was an ineffectual backbencher for much of his time in Queen's Park, generally limiting himself to making *unbelieveably* syncophantic and partisan speeches in support of his government's policies. Beyond that, this area has been Liberal since *1988*, and vote-splitting wasn't a factor last time. I say Macklin holds on.
16/03/04 SB
Dr. Doug Galt, former MPP, is running here for the Conservatives. Northumberland-QW voters are so disenfranchised with the Liberals, that N-QW and PE-H next door will both go Conservative.

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